UMB Financial Corporation research snapshot
UMBF AI stock analysis currently reads UMB Financial Corporation as a Midwestern and multi-state regional bank that is still digesting its largest deal in company history, the January 31, 2025 Heartland Financial acquisition, while posting stronger net interest income, cleaner efficiency ratios, and still-contained credit losses. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, UMBF traded near $145.03 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $11.02 billion. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$145.03
Market cap
$11.02 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Post-merger regional compounder, credit and rate risk remain
Trend status
Constructive daily trend above 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | UMB earns from commercial banking, institutional banking (trust, fund services, corporate trust, healthcare), and personal banking across a 14-state branch footprint after Heartland. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship commercial deposits, institutional fee businesses, multi-state branch scale, regulatory licenses, and local underwriting knowledge. It is a durable regional franchise, not a national network-effects moat. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Mariner Kemper is executing the Heartland integration, expense discipline, and capital return. The open question is whether credit and culture stay clean at larger scale. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income was $702.4 million and net income available to common was $684.6 million ($9.29 diluted EPS). Q1 2026 common EPS rose to $3.35 on $739.2 million revenue, with end-of-period loans at $40.1 billion and deposits at $60.0 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $145.03 and about $11.27 TTM EPS, UMBF traded near 12.87x earnings, 1.46x March 31, 2026 book value of $99.22, about 2.10x tangible book of $68.94, and a 1.19% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | AltIndex showed a buy technical summary near $144.59, RSI(14) 61.3, price above the 50-day SMA near $136.00 and the 200-day SMA near $124.60, with resistance around $146.01. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit losses (especially CRE and C&I), rate and deposit-cost swings, AOCI on securities, merger integration residual costs, capital rules, and recession risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive analysis and calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because regional bank multiples can reprice quickly when credit, rates, or funding costs change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. UMBF is a scaled regional bank with improving profitability after Heartland, but a buy decision depends on price discipline, credit view, and comfort with bank balance-sheet complexity. | Medium |
UMBF AI stock forecast
The UMBF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $145.03 quote, about $11.27 TTM EPS, and a regional-bank earnings multiple framework. The audited three-year model produced a bearish area near $101, a base area near $157, and a bullish area near $210 before dividends.
$200 to $215
More likely if net interest income stays firm after accretion normalizes, net charge-offs remain low, institutional fees grow, efficiency stays near the high-40s to low-50s, capital return rises, and investors value UMBF near 14x forward earnings.
$150 to $160
More likely if EPS compounds near mid-single digits, loan and deposit growth stay mid-single to low-double digits, credit stays orderly, purchase accounting benefits fade gradually, and the market pays about 12x earnings.
$95 to $105
More likely if unemployment rises, CRE or C&I charge-offs climb, deposit costs re-accelerate, securities marks widen AOCI, integration savings disappoint, or the multiple compresses toward 9x earnings.
UMBF AI technical analysis
UMBF AI technical analysis is constructive but near resistance as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed UMBF near $145.03 with a 52-week range of about $103.38 to $146.90, while AltIndex listed a buy technical summary near $144.59, RSI(14) at 61.3, a 50-day simple moving average near $136.00, and a 200-day simple moving average near $124.60.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $145.03 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot used with 75.977 million common shares for market cap and valuation math at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $142.80 to $136.00 | The 20-day moving average near $142.80 and the 50-day average near $136.00 form the first support zone. |
| Near resistance | $146.01 to $146.90 | AltIndex listed resistance near $146.01, close to the 52-week high around $146.90, creating the first breakout area. |
| 50-day moving average | $136.00 | Price was above this level, keeping the intermediate trend constructive after the golden cross with the 200-day average. |
| 200-day moving average | $124.60 | Price remained above the 200-day average, supporting a positive longer-term technical backdrop. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 61.3 | RSI was positive but not extreme, so momentum supported the trend without a clear overbought reading. MACD on the same snapshot was softer than price trend. |
| Volume | Regional bank liquidity | UMBF is liquid for a mid-to-large regional bank, but volume should still be checked around earnings, Fed news, credit headlines, and capital-return updates. |
| Volatility | Bank-cycle sensitive | Technical volatility can rise around credit, interest-rate, merger-integration, and regulatory news even when headline beta is moderate. |
| Invalidation | Close below $136.00, then $124.60 | A close below the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would be a more serious trend warning. |
UMBF AI trading strategy
The UMBF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a post-merger regional bank with commercial and institutional fee exposure, rate sensitivity, and credit-cycle risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for UMBF to hold above the 50-day moving average near $136 and clear the $146.01 to $146.90 resistance zone with volume confirmation.
A close below $136.00 or a failed breakout after the next earnings print should invalidate the short-term setup.
If UMBF pulls back toward the 200-day moving average near $124.60 without a new credit, deposit, or regulatory shock, compare the price reaction with NIM, net charge-offs, nonaccruals, and capital ratios.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because regional bank stocks can reprice sharply when credit losses or funding costs move against them.
Track net interest income and margin, average loans and deposits, noninterest-bearing mix, net charge-offs, nonaccruals, CET1, tangible book value, institutional fee income, efficiency ratio, and buyback activity.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth relies mainly on multiple expansion or temporary purchase-accounting accretion rather than core deposit stability, credit discipline, fee growth, and operating leverage.
Investment research summary
UMB Financial converts commercial and consumer deposit relationships, relationship lending, trust and fund servicing, corporate trust, card and brokerage fees, and multi-state branch distribution into net interest income and fee revenue for businesses, institutions, and households.
The moat is strongest in sticky commercial and institutional relationships, specialized fee businesses, local credit knowledge, and post-Heartland scale across 14 states. It narrows if deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, fee businesses lose share, or credit quality deteriorates after rapid loan growth.
The thesis fails if CRE or C&I losses rise, deposit costs stay high, rates compress reinvestment yields, AOCI marks limit capital flexibility, Heartland cost saves reverse, private-credit or regional-bank contagion headlines force multiple compression, or regulators demand more capital.
Mariner Kemper has emphasized profitable growth, asset quality, and Heartland integration. Key-person risk is moderate for an institutional bank, but capital allocation, underwriting culture, and integration follow-through still matter after a balance-sheet jump past $70 billion in assets.
Regional banks benefit from commercial banking, wealth transfer, payments, and institutional servicing, while facing digital competition, rate-cycle swings, and tighter scrutiny after 2023 bank stress. Scale after consolidation can help, but credit cycles still dominate shorter periods.
UMBF is priced as a successful post-merger regional bank, not a distressed franchise. Margin of safety depends on whether investors are comfortable paying about 12.87x TTM earnings, 1.46x book value, and about 2.10x tangible book for a rate- and credit-sensitive bank.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBF price | $145.03 snapshot near July 9, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.02 billion, verified as $145.03 x 75.977 million shares with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Common shares outstanding | 75,977,250 shares at March 31, 2026 | UMB Financial Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $702.4 million GAAP net income; $684.6 million available to common; $9.29 diluted EPS | UMB Financial FY2025 / Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue cross-check | About $4.144 billion interest income plus noninterest income; Macrotrends annual revenue $4.144 billion (0.00% variance) | Company income statement and Macrotrends revenue series | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net interest income | $1.862 billion | UMB Financial FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $739.2 million revenue, $255.6 million net income available to common, $3.35 diluted EPS, $40.1 billion loans, $60.0 billion deposits | UMB Financial Investor Relations | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value and tangible book value | BVPS $99.22 and TBVPS $68.94 at March 31, 2026; CET1 capital ratio 11.16% | UMB Financial Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Credit quality | Q1 2026 net charge-offs 19 bps of average loans; nonaccrual and restructured loans 0.38% of total loans | UMB Financial Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 61.3, 50-day SMA $136.00, 200-day SMA $124.60, resistance near $146.01, overall technical summary buy | AltIndex technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bear $101.4, base $156.6, bull $210.0 over three years before dividends | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
This UMBF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if UMB Financial fundamentals, credit losses, rates, deposits, capital rules, merger integration, competition, or market valuation change.
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