UMB Financial Corporation research snapshot
UMBF AI stock analysis currently reads UMB Financial Corporation as a scaled Midwestern and multi-state regional bank whose largest-ever deal, the January 31, 2025 Heartland Financial acquisition, is now past its first full year, with second quarter 2026 results beating analyst estimates on record loan production, stronger fee income, and a 16.3% dividend increase to $0.50 per share. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, UMBF traded near $149.02 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $11.32 billion. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$149.02
Market cap
$11.32 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Post-merger compounder clearing its first-year integration test; valuation fuller after the Q2 beat
Trend status
Bullish trend breaking to a fresh 52-week high above 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | UMB earns from commercial banking, institutional banking (trust, fund services, corporate trust, custody, healthcare), and personal banking across a 14-state branch footprint, and Q2 2026 revenue rose 12.9% year over year to $778.0 million with a 1.55% return on average assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship commercial deposits, institutional fee businesses, multi-state branch scale, regulatory licenses, and local underwriting knowledge. Average C&I loans grew 21.6% linked-quarter annualized to $17.5 billion. It is a durable regional franchise, not a national network-effects moat. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Mariner Kemper delivered a Q2 beat, raised the common dividend 16.3% to $0.50 per share, and repurchased $5.0 million of stock in the quarter while keeping credit clean. The open question is whether net interest margin holds as accretion fades. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 EPS rose 26.2% year over year to $3.56 on $778.0 million revenue; first-half EPS was $6.90; end-of-period loans were $41.1 billion and deposits $59.8 billion, with a 14.16% return on average common equity and a 48.4% efficiency ratio. | High |
| Valuation | At $149.02 and about $12.0 TTM EPS, UMBF traded near 12.4x earnings, 1.46x June 30, 2026 book value of $102.02, about 2.07x tangible book of $72.03, and a forward dividend yield near 1.34% after the hike. | High |
| Technical trend | AltIndex showed a strong-buy technical summary (5 buy, 3 neutral, 1 sell), RSI(14) 56.5, price above the 50-day SMA near $141.90 and the 200-day SMA near $127.50, with UMBF breaking to a fresh 52-week high near $149.57 on August 3. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit losses (especially CRE and C&I), rate and deposit-cost swings, AOCI on securities, purchase-accounting accretion fade, lumpy private-investment gains, capital rules, and recession risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive analysis and calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because regional bank multiples can reprice quickly when credit, rates, or funding costs change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. UMBF is a scaled regional bank with improving profitability after Heartland, but a buy decision depends on price discipline, credit view, NIM durability, and comfort with bank balance-sheet complexity at a 52-week high. | Medium |
UMBF AI stock forecast
The UMBF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $149.02 quote, about $12.0 TTM EPS, and a regional-bank earnings multiple framework. The audited three-year model produced a bearish area near $108, a base area near $167, and a bullish area near $224 before dividends, while Wall Street 12-month targets average near $164 with a high near $181.
$215 to $230
More likely if loan growth stays near double digits, fee income holds without relying on one-off investment gains, NIM stabilizes as accretion fades, net charge-offs stay near 15 to 20 basis points, efficiency stays in the high-40s, capital return grows, and investors value UMBF near 14x forward earnings.
$160 to $172
More likely if EPS compounds near mid-single digits, loan and deposit growth stay mid-single to low-double digits, credit stays orderly, purchase accounting benefits fade gradually, dividend hikes continue, and the market pays about 12x earnings.
$100 to $115
More likely if unemployment rises, CRE or C&I charge-offs climb, deposit costs re-accelerate, securities marks widen AOCI, private-investment gains do not repeat, or the multiple compresses toward 9x earnings.
UMBF AI technical analysis
UMBF AI technical analysis is bullish after a Q2 earnings beat lifted the stock to a fresh 52-week high. Yahoo Finance showed UMBF near $149.02 on August 3, 2026 with a 52-week range of about $103.38 to $149.57, while AltIndex listed a strong-buy technical summary near $145.73 (July 31 close basis), RSI(14) at 56.5, a 50-day simple moving average near $141.90, a 200-day simple moving average near $127.50, and a golden cross intact.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $149.02 | Yahoo Finance intraday quote used with 75.98 million common shares for market cap and valuation math at the August 3, 2026 cutoff; Google Finance last close was $145.73 on July 31. |
| Near support | $143.30 to $141.90 | The 10-day moving average near $143.30 and the 50-day average near $141.90 form the first support zone. |
| Near resistance | $148.27 to $149.57 | AltIndex listed resistance near $148.27 and the 52-week high was $149.57, a zone UMBF was testing and clearing on August 3 after the Q2 beat. |
| 50-day moving average | $141.90 | Price was above this level, keeping the intermediate trend constructive after the golden cross with the 200-day average. |
| 200-day moving average | $127.50 | Price remained above the 200-day average, supporting a positive longer-term technical backdrop. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 56.5 neutral; MACD bullish | RSI was positive but not extreme, MACD sat above its signal line, and stochastic RSI flashed buy, so momentum supported the trend without an overbought reading. |
| Volume | Regional bank liquidity | Volume near 604,000 against an average near 696,000 (Yahoo) should be watched around earnings, Fed decisions, credit headlines, and capital-return updates. |
| Volatility | Bank-cycle sensitive | ATR(14) was low near $1.4, but technical volatility can still rise around credit, interest-rate, merger-integration, and regulatory news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $141.90, then $127.50 | A close below the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would be a more serious trend warning. |
UMBF AI trading strategy
The UMBF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a post-merger regional bank with commercial and institutional fee exposure, rate sensitivity, and credit-cycle risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for UMBF to hold above the 50-day moving average near $141.90 and to confirm a breakout through the $148.27 to $149.57 resistance zone with volume, after the stock lifted to a new 52-week high on the Q2 beat.
A close back below $141.90, or a failed breakout that rolls over in the sessions after the next earnings print, should invalidate the short-term setup.
If UMBF pulls back toward the 100-day moving average near $135.30 or the 200-day moving average near $127.50 without a new credit, deposit, or regulatory shock, compare the price reaction with NIM excluding accretion, net charge-offs, nonaccruals, and capital ratios.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because regional bank stocks can reprice sharply when credit losses or funding costs move against them.
Track net interest income and margin excluding purchase accounting accretion, average loans and deposits, the noninterest-bearing deposit mix, net charge-offs, nonaccruals, CET1, tangible book value, fee quality (private-investment gains are lumpy), efficiency ratio, and buyback activity.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth relies mainly on multiple expansion, one-off private-investment gains, or temporary purchase-accounting accretion rather than core deposit stability, credit discipline, recurring fees, and operating leverage.
Investment research summary
UMB Financial converts commercial and personal deposit relationships, relationship lending, trust and fund servicing, corporate trust, custody, healthcare payments, card and brokerage fees, and a private-investment portfolio into net interest income and fee revenue for businesses, institutions, and households.
The moat is strongest in sticky commercial and institutional relationships, specialized fee businesses, C&I lending momentum, local credit knowledge, and post-Heartland scale across 14 states. It narrows if deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, fee businesses lose share, credit quality deteriorates after rapid loan growth, or accretion benefits fade.
The thesis fails if CRE or C&I losses rise, deposit costs stay high or the funding mix shifts toward interest-bearing deposits, rates compress reinvestment yields, AOCI marks limit capital flexibility, accretion fade pushes net interest margin down, private-investment gains do not repeat, or regional-bank contagion headlines force multiple compression.
Mariner Kemper delivered a Q2 beat, raised the common dividend 16.3% to $0.50 per share, and kept buybacks and credit clean. Key-person risk is moderate for an institutional bank, but capital allocation, underwriting culture, and net interest margin durability after a balance sheet above $72 billion still matter.
Regional banks benefit from commercial banking, wealth transfer, payments, and institutional servicing, while facing digital competition, rate-cycle swings, and tighter scrutiny after 2023 bank stress. Scale after consolidation helps, but credit cycles still dominate shorter periods.
UMBF is priced as a successful post-merger compounder at a 52-week high, not a distressed franchise. Margin of safety depends on whether investors are comfortable paying about 12.4x TTM earnings, 1.46x book value, and about 2.07x tangible book for a rate- and credit-sensitive bank.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBF price | $149.02 intraday on August 3, 2026; Google Finance last close $145.73 on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance quote snapshots | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $11.32 billion, verified as $149.02 x 75.98 million shares with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Common shares outstanding | 75,947,552 shares at June 30, 2026 | UMB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release, tangible book reconciliation | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $778.0 million revenue, $271.8 million net income available to common, $3.56 diluted EPS (up 26.2% YoY), net interest income $532.5 million, NIM 3.32%, ROE 14.16% | UMB Financial Investor Relations | Aug 3, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Net income $539.0 million GAAP; $527.4 million available to common; $6.90 diluted EPS | UMB Financial Investor Relations | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Book value and tangible book value | BVPS $102.02 and TBVPS $72.03 at June 30, 2026; CET1 capital ratio 11.45% | UMB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Credit quality | Q2 2026 net charge-offs 16 basis points of average loans; nonperforming loans 31 basis points of total loans; provision $28.0 million | UMB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.50 per common share declared, a 16.3% increase, payable October 1, 2026; forward yield near 1.34% at $149.02 | UMB Financial Investor Relations | Aug 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Net income $702.4 million GAAP; $684.6 million available to common; $9.29 diluted EPS; annual revenue $4.144 billion (Macrotrends series) | UMB Financial FY2025 release and Macrotrends revenue series | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Strong buy summary (5 buy, 3 neutral, 1 sell), RSI(14) 56.5, 50-day SMA $141.90, 200-day SMA $127.50, support $108.71, resistance $148.27 | AltIndex technical analysis | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bear $108.1, base $166.8, bull $223.8 over three years before dividends | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | Aug 3, 2026 |
This UMBF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if UMB Financial fundamentals, credit losses, rates, deposits, capital rules, accretion, merger integration, competition, or market valuation change.
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