Tyson Foods, Inc. research snapshot
TSN AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Tyson Foods, Inc. as a protein scale operator where chicken and prepared foods are doing most of the work while beef remains a profit drag. The stock closed at $57.96 on July 31, 2026, at a verified market capitalization near $20.41 billion, re-verified as $57.96 times 352.13 million shares with a 0.00% deviation. The latest reported results are the Q2 fiscal 2026 release from May 4, 2026, which showed first half fiscal 2026 sales of $27.97 billion up 4.8%, adjusted operating income of $1.07 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.84, and full year fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income guidance of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion. Fiscal 2026 Q3 results are scheduled for August 3, 2026, one day after this data cutoff. A leadership transition is underway with Jeff Schomburger set to become President and CEO effective October 4, 2026, succeeding Donnie King, and the stock now trades below every major moving average after a 4.44% drop on July 31, 2026. The valuation is mixed: about 45.80x trailing GAAP EPS, 13.26x forward earnings, 0.37x sales, and a 3.52% dividend yield. This TSN AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$57.96
Market cap
$20.41 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Improving chicken and prepared foods, offset by beef losses, thin GAAP margins, a CEO transition, and a weak chart
Trend status
Bearish to neutral, trading below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 46
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tyson sells beef, pork, chicken, prepared foods, and international protein products through retail, foodservice, industrial, and export channels, with TTM revenue near $55.71 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, processing capacity, brands such as Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells, and State Fair, customer relationships, distribution, procurement, and operating know-how, but commodity exposure limits pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | A transition is in progress. Jeff Schomburger becomes President and CEO on October 4, 2026, succeeding Donnie King, and Wes Morris has been named COO. The test is capital discipline, chicken execution, prepared foods growth, beef loss containment, and debt management through the handover. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales were $54.44 billion and first half fiscal 2026 sales rose 4.8% to $27.97 billion, but GAAP margins remain thin at about 0.8% net margin and beef is still expected to lose money in fiscal 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $57.96, TSN screens near 45.80x trailing GAAP EPS, 13.26x forward earnings, 1.13x book value, 16.63x free cash flow per share, 0.37x sales, and a 3.52% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is weak. TSN closed at $57.96 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day average near $58.39, 50-day near $58.83, 100-day near $61.46, and 200-day near $59.94, with 14-day RSI near 46.18 and weak ADX. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include cattle supply and New World screwworm, beef losses, commodity input volatility, legal claims, food safety, labor, debt, customer concentration, the CEO transition, and family voting control. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because core company and third-party data are available and cross-validated. Forecast confidence is lower because the Q3 fiscal 2026 report lands August 3, 2026 and protein margins can turn quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TSN has an improving operating core in chicken and prepared foods, but the margin of safety depends on sustained segment profit and execution through a management handover rather than a one quarter rebound. | Medium-low |
TSN AI stock forecast
The TSN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $57.96 and the fiscal 2026 consensus adjusted EPS estimate near $4.02. The three year framework produced a bearish area near $34, a base area near $57, and a bullish area near $78 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of negative 2%, 6%, and 9% and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 15x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$70 to $84
More likely if fiscal 2026 sales grow toward the high end of the 2% to 4% guide, chicken adjusted operating income holds near the $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion range, prepared foods reaches $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion, beef losses narrow, free cash flow approaches the high end of the $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion guide, and the August 3, 2026 Q3 report confirms the momentum.
$53 to $62
More likely if fiscal 2026 sales grow 2% to 4%, chicken strength offsets beef weakness, adjusted EPS compounds slowly, the new CEO handover stays orderly, and the market keeps TSN near a low teens forward earnings multiple.
$31 to $38
More likely if beef losses remain large, New World screwworm or cattle supply pressure deepens, legal or food safety costs rise, chicken margins normalize lower, free cash flow misses guidance, the Q3 report disappoints, or the leadership transition disrupts execution.
TSN AI technical analysis
TSN AI technical analysis is bearish to neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $57.96 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $58.39, 50-day near $58.83, 100-day near $61.46, and 200-day near $59.94. RSI near 46 is not washed out and ADX near 18 indicates a weak trend, so price action is vulnerable to the August 3, 2026 earnings report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $57.96 | StockAnalysis real time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 352.13 million shares outstanding. |
| Immediate support | $55.50 to $57.50 | The July 31, 2026 intraday low near $57.67 and the round $55 area form a first support zone below the close. |
| Deeper support | $50.56 | The 52 week low near $50.56 is the next meaningful downside marker if the downtrend continues. |
| Near resistance | $58.39 to $58.83 | The 20 day moving average near $58.39 and 50 day near $58.83 sit just overhead and cap short term recovery. |
| Next resistance | $59.94 to $61.50 | The 200 day average near $59.94 and 100 day average near $61.46 are the zone TSN needs to reclaim for a cleaner trend signal. |
| Higher resistance | $65 to $69.48 | The 52 week high near $69.48 and bullish analyst targets up to $81 mark the upside objective area. |
| Moving averages | 20-day about $58.39, 50-day $58.83, 100-day $61.46, 200-day $59.94 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both place the stock below every major moving average as of July 31, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI 14-day near 46.18, stochastic raw near 25.88 | Momentum is soft but not washed out. Oversold readings could set up a bounce, while the earnings report is the next catalyst. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume about 2.9 million shares | StockAnalysis lists about 2.9 million and Barchart about 3.0 million average shares, with higher volume on the July 31 decline. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.39, 14-day historical volatility near 32% | The stock shows low market beta, but earnings and beef cycle headlines can still create sharp single name moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $55.50 or above $58.85 | A sustained close below the $55.50 area would confirm the downtrend toward the 52 week low, while a reclaim of the 50 day average near $58.83 would stabilize the setup. |
TSN AI trading strategy
The TSN AI trading strategy below is a rules based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to chicken margin, prepared foods growth, beef losses, free cash flow, leverage, dividends, legal accruals, the CEO transition, and the August 3, 2026 Q3 report.
Avoid long exposure while TSN trades below the 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day moving averages. Wait for a reclaim of the $59.94 to $61.50 zone on volume before treating the chart as turning.
A failed reclaim or a close below $55.50 should reduce confidence, especially if the August 3, 2026 Q3 report or beef commentary weakens.
If TSN tests the $55.50 to $57.50 support zone after the Q3 report, compare the entry price with updated adjusted EPS, cash flow, debt, legal accruals, and segment margin data before acting.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap if the selloff is tied to food safety events, legal reserves, beef losses, screwworm related cattle supply, or a reversal in chicken profitability.
Track chicken adjusted operating income, prepared foods margin, beef loss range, pork profitability, free cash flow, capital expenditures, net interest expense, cash, debt, dividend coverage, the Schomburger CEO transition, and Class B voting control disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that TSN is a cyclical protein processor with consumer staples demand and an imminent leadership change, not a stable compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Tyson for affordable and branded protein across retail, foodservice, industrial, and international channels. The business works when Tyson converts scale, procurement, plant operations, brands, and distribution into reliable protein supply at acceptable margins.
The moat is scale based rather than monopoly like. Tyson has major beef, pork, chicken, and prepared foods capacity, well known brands, and customer relationships that are hard to rebuild quickly, but commodity exposure limits pricing power.
The thesis fails if cattle supply keeps beef margins negative, New World screwworm worsens the cattle picture, chicken productivity gains fade, legal claims absorb cash, food safety or labor issues damage operations, the CEO transition disrupts execution, or leverage limits flexibility.
Donnie King is stepping down and Jeff Schomburger becomes President and CEO effective October 4, 2026, with Wes Morris named COO. The capital allocation test is whether dividends and buybacks remain covered while the company invests in plants, productivity, and balance sheet resilience through the handover.
Protein demand is durable and consumers can trade between beef, pork, chicken, and prepared products. The industry remains exposed to cattle cycles, New World screwworm, grain costs, labor, regulation, food inflation, animal disease, export markets, and retailer bargaining power.
At about 0.37x sales, 13.26x forward earnings, and 3.52% dividend yield, TSN screens inexpensive on adjusted and forward metrics. The margin of safety depends on whether adjusted earnings and free cash flow are more representative than thin GAAP net income during the beef downcycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSN price | $57.96 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis real time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $20.41 billion, verified as $57.96 x 352.13 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| First half fiscal 2026 sales | $27.966 billion, up 4.8% year over year | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| First half fiscal 2026 GAAP and adjusted EPS | $0.97 GAAP EPS and $1.84 adjusted EPS | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income outlook | $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion total company adjusted operating income | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 segment outlook | Chicken $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion, Prepared Foods $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion, Pork $250 million to $300 million, Beef loss $500 million to $350 million, International $150 million to $200 million | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 sales | $54.441 billion, up 2.12% | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income and EPS | $474 million net income and $1.33 EPS | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income, and EPS | $55.71 billion revenue, $453 million net income, and $1.27 EPS | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash, debt, and free cash flow | $500 million cash, $8.08 billion total debt, and $1.23 billion free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings date | Scheduled for Monday, August 3, 2026 before market open | StockAnalysis earnings calendar and GlobeNewswire | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Jeff Schomburger named President and CEO effective October 4, 2026, succeeding Donnie King; Wes Morris named COO | Tyson Foods press release and WSJ report | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $68.92 across 13 analysts, low $56 and high $81, median $68.5 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $71 to $65, Bernstein $63, Barclays $78, BofA $70 to $68, Piper Sandler $80 to $78 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell out of 13 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $56.71 billion with adjusted EPS $4.02, FY2027 adjusted EPS $4.48 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization reference | $20.41 billion as of July 31, 2026 | Macrotrends market cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day average $58.39, 50-day $58.83, 100-day $61.46, 200-day $59.94, RSI 46.18, beta 0.39, 20-day average volume about 2.9 million | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 9.56 million shares short, 2.71% of shares outstanding, about 2.96 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Cattle supply risk | New World screwworm detected in the U.S. for the first time in 60 years, adding pressure to an already shrinking cattle population | Barron's report | August 2, 2026 |
This TSN AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the cutoff date and can be wrong if Tyson Foods fundamentals, commodity markets, the August 3, 2026 Q3 report, the CEO transition, legal exposure, or market conditions change.
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