Tyson Foods, Inc. research snapshot
TSN AI stock analysis currently reads Tyson Foods, Inc. as a scale protein company where chicken and prepared foods momentum is doing most of the work while beef remains the main profit drag. The latest company update showed first-half fiscal 2026 sales of $27.97 billion, GAAP operating income of $737 million, adjusted EPS of $1.84, and fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income guidance of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, TSN traded near $58.82 with a verified market capitalization of about $20.82 billion. This TSN AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$58.82
Market cap
$20.82 billion verified market cap, with third-party references around $20.7 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Improving protein operator with chicken and prepared foods strength, offset by beef-cycle losses and low GAAP margins
Trend status
Mixed to slightly constructive, with price near short moving averages, below StockAnalysis 50-day average, above the 200-day average, and RSI near neutral
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tyson sells beef, pork, chicken, prepared foods, and international protein products through retail, foodservice, industrial, and export channels. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, processing capacity, brands, customer relationships, distribution, procurement, and operating know-how, but commodity exposure limits pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Donnie King is a long-tenured Tyson operator. The current test is capital discipline, chicken execution, prepared foods growth, beef loss containment, and debt management. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales were $54.44 billion and first-half fiscal 2026 sales rose 4.8% to $27.97 billion, but GAAP margins remain thin and beef is still expected to lose money. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.82, TSN screens near 46.31x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.14x book value, 16.90x free cash flow per share, 0.38x sales per share, and a 3.47% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is mixed. Investing.com shows 5-day and 50-day moving averages near $57, while StockAnalysis shows a 50-day average of $61.65, a 200-day average of $59.52, and RSI of 49.47. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include cattle supply, beef losses, commodity input volatility, legal claims, food safety, labor, debt, customer concentration, and family voting control. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because core company and third-party data are available. Forecast confidence is lower because protein margins can turn quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TSN has an improving operating setup, but the margin of safety depends on sustained chicken and prepared foods profit rather than a one-quarter rebound. | Medium-low |
TSN AI stock forecast
The TSN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $58.82 quote reference, fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.12, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $36.50, a base area near $58.50, and a bullish area near $83.00 before dividends.
$78 to $86
More likely if chicken adjusted operating income stays near the $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion fiscal 2026 guide, prepared foods reaches the $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion range, beef losses narrow, free cash flow approaches the high end of guidance, and investors pay a mid-teens multiple on higher adjusted EPS.
$55 to $62
More likely if fiscal 2026 sales grow 2% to 4%, chicken strength offsets beef weakness, adjusted EPS compounds slowly, and the market keeps TSN near a low-to-mid teens adjusted earnings multiple.
$34 to $39
More likely if beef losses remain large, legal or food-safety costs rise, chicken margins normalize lower, free cash flow misses the $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion guide, or investors value TSN closer to 10x lower adjusted earnings.
TSN AI technical analysis
TSN AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. The $58.82 quote reference sits close to Investing.com short moving-average references near $57 and slightly below StockAnalysis 200-day and 50-day references of $59.52 and $61.65, while RSI near 49.47 is neutral rather than a confirmed momentum signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.82 | July 8, 2026 quote reference used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Immediate support | $55.91 to $58.24 | ChartMill listed this as a support zone built from multiple trend lines and moving-average references. |
| Deeper support | $50.71 to $51.58 | ChartMill listed this as a lower support zone. A break toward this area would weaken the base-case setup. |
| Near resistance | $59.50 to $62 | Area around StockAnalysis 200-day and 50-day moving averages that TSN needs to reclaim for a cleaner trend signal. |
| Higher resistance | $70 to $83 | Consensus target and bullish scenario area if profit guidance improves and the market expands the multiple. |
| Moving averages | 5-day about $57.14, 50-day $57.50 to $61.65, 200-day $59.52 | Investing.com and StockAnalysis references differ, so treat the moving-average cluster as a zone rather than a single precise line. |
| Momentum | RSI about 49.47, with another feed near 41.24 | Momentum is not washed out and not strongly bullish. Confirmation matters after the cutoff. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume about 3.37 million shares | Watch whether breakouts above the moving-average zone happen on above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.39 | The stock has shown lower market beta, but earnings and beef-cycle headlines can still create sharp single-name moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $55 | A durable break below the immediate support zone would weaken the short-term base case and shift attention toward deeper support. |
TSN AI trading strategy
The TSN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to chicken margin, prepared foods growth, beef losses, free cash flow, leverage, dividends, legal accruals, and food inflation data.
Look for TSN to reclaim the $59.50 to $62 moving-average zone, hold it on volume, and pair the move with evidence that chicken and prepared foods are still offsetting beef losses.
A failed reclaim or sustained close below $55 should reduce setup confidence, especially if guidance, free cash flow, or beef commentary weakens.
If TSN tests $55 to $58 while fiscal 2026 guidance remains intact, compare the entry price with updated adjusted EPS, cash flow, debt, legal accruals, and segment margin data.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap if the selloff is tied to food-safety events, legal reserves, beef losses, or a reversal in chicken profitability.
Track chicken adjusted operating income, prepared foods margin, beef loss range, pork profitability, free cash flow, capital expenditures, net interest expense, cash, debt, dividend coverage, and Class B voting-control disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that TSN is a cyclical protein processor with consumer staples demand, not a stable software-style compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Tyson for affordable and branded protein across retail, foodservice, industrial, and international channels. The business works when Tyson converts scale, procurement, plant operations, brands, and distribution into reliable protein supply at acceptable margins.
The moat is scale-based rather than monopoly-like. Tyson has major beef, pork, chicken, and prepared foods capacity, well-known brands such as Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells, ibp, and State Fair, and customer relationships that are hard to rebuild quickly.
The thesis fails if cattle supply keeps beef margins negative, chicken productivity gains fade, legal claims absorb cash, food-safety or labor issues damage operations, leverage limits flexibility, or family voting control creates governance outcomes minority shareholders dislike.
Donnie King has spent decades at Tyson and brings operating depth across poultry, fresh meats, international, and prepared foods. The capital-allocation test is whether buybacks and dividends remain covered while the company invests in plants, productivity, and balance-sheet resilience.
Protein demand is durable and consumers can trade between beef, pork, chicken, and prepared products. The industry is still exposed to cattle cycles, grain costs, labor, regulation, food inflation, animal disease, export markets, and retailer bargaining power.
At about 0.38x sales and 16.90x free cash flow per share, TSN is not priced like a high-margin brand compounder. The margin of safety depends on whether adjusted earnings and free cash flow are more representative than thin GAAP net income during the beef downcycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-half fiscal 2026 sales | $27.966 billion, up 4.8% year over year | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| First-half fiscal 2026 GAAP and adjusted EPS | $0.97 GAAP EPS and $1.84 adjusted EPS | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income outlook | $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion total company adjusted operating income | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 segment outlook | Chicken $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion, Prepared Foods $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion, Beef loss $350 million to $500 million | Tyson Foods Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 sales | $54.441 billion, up 2.1% | Tyson Foods fiscal 2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income and adjusted EPS | $474 million net income attributable to Tyson and $4.12 adjusted EPS | Tyson Foods fiscal 2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, EPS, cash, debt, and free cash flow | $55.71 billion revenue, $1.27 EPS, $500 million cash, $8.08 billion debt, and $1.23 billion free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Current price and financial statement snapshot | $58.72 quote at 9:40 AM EDT, July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $20.82 billion verified as $58.82 x 354.00 million shares; Macrotrends reference was $20.74 billion near July 5, 2026 | financial_rigor.py and Macrotrends market cap reference | July 8, 2026 |
| Management background | CEO Donnie King began his Tyson career in 1982 and has held leadership roles across the company | Tyson Foods leadership profile | July 8, 2026 |
| Industry scale | Tyson says it produces approximately 20% of the beef, pork, and chicken in the United States | Tyson Foods facts page | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | StockAnalysis lists 50-day average $61.65, 200-day average $59.52, RSI 49.47, beta 0.39, and 20-day average volume 3.37 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This TSN AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the cutoff date and can be wrong if Tyson Foods fundamentals, commodity markets, legal exposure, or market conditions change.
