Pilgrim's Pride Corporation research snapshot
PPC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Pilgrims Pride Corporation as a scale protein producer caught in a sharp chicken downcycle, with the stock near its 52-week low after an earnings collapse. PPC closed at $27.36 on July 31, 2026, down about 43% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a market capitalization near $6.51 billion computed as $27.36 times 238.11 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, showed net sales of $4.63 billion down 2.8%, GAAP net income of only $13.4 million versus $355.5 million a year ago, adjusted EPS of $0.64, and adjusted EBITDA of $360 million down 47.6% with a 7.8% margin, as U.S. ready-to-cook chicken supply grew 4.5% and jumbo cutout values fell more than 25% year over year. The company absorbed $136 million of broiler litigation settlement expense in the quarter, kept net leverage low at 1.43x adjusted EBITDA, and maintained full-year adjusted free cash flow generation while investing about $900 million in plants and prepared foods. JBS S.A. beneficially owns 82.1% of the company, the dividend screen shows a 7.68% yield on the last special cash dividend paid in 2025, and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus has been cut roughly in half to $2.49, which explains why the multiple looks low and the stock keeps falling. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$27.36
Market cap
$6.51 billion
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Downcycled protein cash flow at a low multiple, burdened by JBS control and an unresolved commodity overhang
Trend status
Downtrend below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, trading near the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Pilgrims Pride is a vertically integrated chicken, pork, and prepared foods producer across the U.S., Europe, and Mexico, with about $18.44 billion in TTM revenue, 63,000 employees, and a growing branded frozen prepared business led by Just Bare, but current margins are depressed by a chicken supply glut. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on vertical integration, scale processing capacity, long-term Key Customer relationships, and fast-growing prepared food brands such as Just Bare, now the second largest brand in U.S. frozen fully cooked chicken, but commodity chicken pricing still limits pricing power across the fresh segments. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Fabio Sandri and CFO Matt Galvanoni are executing a portfolio diversification strategy, completing plant conversions in Russellville and Ellijay, building a prepared foods plant in Georgia, finishing a $250 million bond tender, and keeping leverage near 1.4x, while strategic direction ultimately serves the controlling JBS shareholder. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA fell 47.6% to $360 million on a 7.8% margin, GAAP net income dropped to $13.4 million from $355.5 million, and TTM net income fell to $545.61 million from about $1.08 billion, while H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA fell 45.2% and consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS was cut to $2.49 from about $5.17. | High |
| Valuation | At 11.95x trailing EPS, 11.25x forward EPS, 0.35x sales, and a 7.68% yield on the last special dividend, the multiple looks low, but the forward multiple is on sharply reduced estimates, EV/EBITDA sits at 6.57x on depressed EBITDA, and FY2026 consensus free cash flow is negative before growth spending. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PPC closed at $27.36 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $29.13, $28.61, $28.58, $31.19, and $35.52, within about 3% of the 52-week low of $26.50, with 14-day RSI near 41 and 14-day ADX near 13 showing a weak, grinding downtrend. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are the chicken commodity cycle with U.S. ready-to-cook supply up 4.5%, falling jumbo cutout values, $838.5 million of cumulative broiler antitrust settlement expense including $155.4 million in H1 2026, a reported DOJ criminal probe of beef and meat companies, an 82.1% JBS control structure, UK pork import pressure, Mexico live-market volatility, and a dividend paid as special cash rather than a recurring stream. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because chicken margins, litigation outflows, and multiple assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the cyclical trough timing is hard to call. | Medium-low |
PPC AI stock forecast
The PPC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $27.36 and the FY2026 and FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus of $2.49 and $3.03. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $20, a base area near $31, and a bullish area near $40 over a three-year horizon, using adjusted EPS recovery of 0% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and 20% to 30% and exit multiples of 9x, 10x, and 12x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$36 to $44
More likely if U.S. chicken supply growth slows below 2%, cutout values recover seasonally, Just Bare and prepared foods keep growing share, litigation costs fall, and the market re-rates PPC toward 11x to 12x earnings on normalized EPS above $3.50.
$27 to $35
More likely if the second-half supply growth of about 2.5% holds, adjusted EPS recovers toward $3.00 by FY2027, PPC keeps leverage near 1.4x, and the stock trades around a 9x to 11x multiple while paying irregular special dividends.
$17 to $23
More likely if chicken supply stays elevated, cutout values keep falling, adjusted EBITDA margins stay near 7% or below, broiler settlements keep absorbing cash, Mexico and UK margins stay weak, or the market assigns a wider control discount to the 82.1% JBS ownership.
PPC AI technical analysis
PPC AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $27.36 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $29.13, $28.61, $28.58, $31.19, and $35.52, and about 3% above the 52-week low of $26.50. The trend is weak rather than strongly oversold, with 14-day RSI near 41, 14-day ADX near 13, and 14-day historical volatility near 38%, so a confirmed break below $26.50 would open deeper downside while a reclaim of the $29 zone would be the first stabilization signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.36 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 238.11 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $29.13 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $29.13 on July 31, 2026, above price, confirming near-term selling pressure. |
| 20-day moving average | $28.61 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $28.61, acting as the first resistance for any bounce attempt. |
| 50-day moving average | $28.58 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both placed the 50-day moving average near $28.58 as of July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $31.19 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $31.19, well above price and consistent with the medium-term downtrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $35.52 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both placed the 200-day moving average near $35.52, far above the current price. |
| 52-week range | $26.50 to $50.56 | The 52-week range is $26.50 to $50.56, so the stock sits near the bottom of the range with the $26.50 low as the key downside trigger. |
| Near support | $26.50 to $27.00 | The 52-week low of $26.50 is the main support. A decisive break below it would open the way toward lower levels with no recent chart support underneath. |
| Near resistance | $28.60 to $29.20 | The 20-day and 5-day moving averages cluster near $28.61 and $29.13, forming the first resistance zone a bounce must clear. |
| Key resistance | $31.20 and $35.50 | The 100-day moving average near $31.19 and the 200-day near $35.52 are the stronger overhead zones that would mark a meaningful trend repair. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41, ADX near 13 | 14-day RSI was near 41.11 on StockAnalysis.com and 41.06 on Barchart, neutral rather than oversold, and 14-day ADX near 13 indicates a weak, choppy downtrend rather than a strong trending move. |
| Volume | About 1.6 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.6 million shares and 5-day near 1.88 million on July 31, 2026; the recent increase on down days confirms distribution pressure. |
| Volatility | Elevated near 38% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 38% and 50-day near 40%, so position sizing should account for sharp moves around earnings and USDA supply reports. |
| Invalidation | Close below $26.50 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $26.50 would extend the downtrend; a daily close above the 5-day and 20-day zone near $29 would be the first constructive signal. |
PPC AI trading strategy
The PPC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the chicken cycle. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, USDA supply reports, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Given the downtrend, trend-following means waiting for the stock to reclaim the 20-day and 5-day zone near $28.60 to $29.20 on rising volume, or a fundamental catalyst such as a USDA supply downgrade, before treating momentum as shifting.
A daily close below the 52-week low of $26.50 should trigger a stop and review. Do not fight the trend because the stock is down 43% from its high; a falling stock can keep falling.
If PPC stabilizes near the $26.50 to $27.00 support on declining volatility, compare the price reaction with Q3 results, chicken cutout values, and prepared food sales before acting, since a cheap multiple can stay cheap in a supply glut.
Define a maximum loss before entry and do not average down, because another leg of supply growth or a large litigation charge can break support.
Track USDA ready-to-cook production, egg sets, chick placements, jumbo cutout values, corn and soybean meal costs, broiler settlement cash flows, JBS corporate actions, Just Bare and prepared foods growth, and the Q3 and Q4 2026 results.
Reduce confidence if the company needs one-time litigation or tax items, irregular dividends, or buybacks to support the earnings story rather than organic demand and operating cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Pilgrims Pride for affordable, reliable chicken, pork, and prepared protein across retail and food service in the U.S., Europe, and Mexico. The business works when vertical integration, scale, and branded prepared foods convert a commodity chicken cycle into consistent cash flow above breakeven margins.
The moat is scale-based and increasingly brand-based: vertical integration, large processing capacity, long-term Key Customer relationships, and a fast-growing Just Bare franchise with about 15% share of frozen fully cooked chicken, offset by commodity chicken pricing in the fresh segments.
The thesis fails if U.S. chicken supply keeps growing faster than demand, jumbo cutout values stay depressed, broiler antitrust settlements keep absorbing cash, the 82.1% JBS control structure widens the minority discount, UK pork margins stay under import pressure, or Mexico live-market margins stay weak.
CEO Fabio Sandri and CFO Matt Galvanoni are executing plant conversions and new prepared foods capacity, completed a $250 million bond tender, and hold net leverage near 1.4x adjusted EBITDA, while strategic decisions ultimately serve JBS, which owns 82.1% of the company.
Chicken demand stays resilient as an affordable protein, but the U.S. industry is oversupplied after ready-to-cook production grew 4.5% in Q2 2026, with USDA expecting about 2.5% growth in the second half, so the cycle timing depends on supply discipline rather than demand.
At about 12x trailing EPS and 11.25x forward EPS on sharply reduced estimates, the stock is cheap on the surface, but the 7.68% dividend yield reflects a one-time special dividend, FY2026 consensus free cash flow is negative before growth spending, and the JBS control structure limits the re-rating potential.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPC price | $27.36 at the July 31, 2026 close, $27.57 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.51 billion, computed as $27.36 x 238.11 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net sales $4,626.2 million down 2.8%, GAAP net income attributable to PPC $13.4 million versus $355.5 million, diluted EPS $0.06 versus $1.49, adjusted EPS $0.64, adjusted EBITDA $360.0 million down 47.6% at a 7.8% margin | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Net sales $9,158.9 million down 0.7%, operating income $228.5 million down 75.1%, adjusted EBITDA $668.1 million down 45.2% at a 7.3% margin, GAAP diluted EPS $0.48 versus $2.73, net income attributable to PPC $114.8 million | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Segment adjusted EBITDA margins | Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margins of 8.7% in the U.S. versus 17.1%, 7.6% in Europe versus 8.2%, and 3.9% in Mexico versus 16.3% | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| U.S. segment Q2 2026 | U.S. net revenues of $2.65 billion versus $2.82 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $231.5 million versus $482.7 million, driven by a 27% decrease in the jumbo cutout value | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Europe and Mexico segments | Europe adjusted EBITDA of $105.8 million versus $111.8 million and Mexico adjusted EBITDA of $22.6 million versus $92.3 million in Q2 2026 | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| U.S. chicken supply | USDA ready-to-cook chicken production up 4.5% in Q2 2026 from higher headcount and live weights, egg sets up 2%, chick placements up 2.4%, with supply growth expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half and about 3.3% for the full year | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call citing USDA | July 30, 2026 |
| Broiler antitrust settlements | Q2 2026 included $136 million of legal settlement expense tied to the broilers litigation, and cumulative expenses for the Broiler Antitrust Litigation reached $838.5 million including $155.4 million in H1 2026, per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| JBS ownership | As of June 28, 2026, JBS S.A. through its indirect wholly owned subsidiaries beneficially owned 82.1% of outstanding common stock | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $388.8 million, total assets of $10.03 billion, long-term debt of $2.86 billion, and PPC stockholders equity of $3.75 billion as of June 28, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Leverage and liquidity | Net debt of less than $2.5 billion, net leverage of 1.43x last twelve months adjusted EBITDA below the 2x to 3x target, and nearly $1.6 billion of total cash and available credit at the end of Q2 2026 | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue of $18.50 billion up 3.46% from $17.88 billion and net income of $1.08 billion down 0.38%, with diluted GAAP EPS of $4.54 and adjusted EPS of $5.17 | StockAnalysis.com financials, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | TTM revenue of $18.44 billion, gross profit of $1.80 billion, operating income of $1.29 billion, net income of $545.61 million, EBITDA of $1.41 billion, and EPS of $2.29 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $1.22 billion, capital expenditures of $916.97 million, and free cash flow of $304.42 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow and capex cross-check | H1 2026 GAAP operating cash flow of $471.8 million and capital expenditures of $490.4 million per SEC EDGAR XBRL, while management cited $465 million of year-to-date capex on the earnings call | SEC EDGAR XBRL and Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue estimate of $18.56 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.49 down 51.93% from $5.17, and FY2027 revenue of $18.89 billion with adjusted EPS of $3.03 up 22.05% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $33.44 across 9 analysts, low of $30 and high of $42, median $31 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 7 Hold out of 9 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BofA reiterated Hold at $30 on July 31, BMO reiterated Hold at $32 on July 31, Barclays maintained Buy at $42 on July 30, Santander downgraded to Hold at $38 on July 9, and UBS initiated Hold at $30 on May 20 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 11.95x trailing EPS, 11.25x forward EPS, 0.35x sales, 1.74x book value, EV/EBITDA 6.57, EV/EBIT 9.99, and EV/FCF 30.35 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | StockAnalysis.com annualizes a $2.10 per share dividend for a 7.68% yield, but the payment history shows special cash dividends of $6.30 in April 2025 and $2.10 in August 2025, with no recurring quarterly dividend | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Share statistics | 238.11 million shares outstanding, float of 42.39 million, institutional ownership of 19.79%, and insider ownership of 0.09% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.75 million shares short, 3.25% of shares outstanding, 18.28% of float, and 4.56 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $26.50 to $50.56, down 42.64% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta of 0.30 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $29.13, 20-day SMA near $28.61, 50-day SMA near $28.58, 100-day SMA near $31.19, 200-day SMA near $35.52, 14-day RSI near 41, 14-day ADX near 13, and 14-day historical volatility near 38% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Ellijay, Georgia investment | Announced June 12, 2026, a strategic investment to expand and modernize the Ellijay, Georgia poultry facility to increase deboning in the small bird category and support Key Customer growth in boneless chicken | Pilgrims Pride press release via GlobeNewswire | June 12, 2026 |
| DOJ meat industry probe | A reported U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into soaring beef prices in April 2026 named leading meat producers including Tyson Foods, Hormel Foods, and Pilgrims Pride, per TheFly and TipRanks reports | TheFly and TipRanks reports via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| China poultry export reopening | Recent U.S.-China government meetings led China to release 17 states from its avian influenza ban, allowing U.S. raw poultry shipments to those states to resume, with additional states pending recognition | Pilgrims Pride Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
This PPC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, USDA supply reports, litigation developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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