Hormel Foods Corporation research snapshot
HRL AI stock analysis currently reads Hormel Foods as a mature branded food company rebuilding earnings after a weak FY2025 and now entering a permanent leadership transition. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, HRL closed around $25.01 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization near $13.76 billion. The company named John Ghingo chief executive officer effective October 26, 2026, reported a sixth consecutive quarter of organic top-line growth in Q2 FY2026, and kept its adjusted EPS guidance at $1.43 to $1.51 for fiscal 2026. The HRL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges instead of a fixed price prediction because commodity costs, turkey exposure, snack nuts execution, foodservice demand, China exports, the CERATTI divestiture, and the CEO transition can change the earnings path quickly.
Current price
$25.01 close on July 31, 2026; next earnings date is August 27, 2026
Market cap
$13.76 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Dividend Aristocrat packaged food turnaround with a confirmed CEO succession and margin repair, balanced by GAAP earnings pressure and a high dividend payout
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the May 2026 earnings rally, but still below the 52-week high and the average analyst target
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hormel sells branded and private-label protein, meat, snack, pantry, and foodservice products through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. The business is useful and cash-generative, but not structurally high growth. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from SPAM, SKIPPY, Planters, Applegate, Jennie-O, Hormel Black Label, foodservice relationships, distribution scale, and recipes. It is real but narrower than premium consumer staples peers because price gaps and commodity costs matter. | Medium-high |
| Management | John Ghingo was named chief executive officer effective October 26, 2026, succeeding interim CEO Jeff Ettinger after a deliberate transition. The key test is whether the permanent leadership restores margin, simplifies the portfolio, and closes the GAAP-to-adjusted earnings gap. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were about $12.11 billion and net earnings attributable to Hormel were $478.2 million. Q2 FY2026 net sales were $2.97 billion with organic net sales up 3%, GAAP EPS was $0.29, adjusted EPS was $0.40, and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance stayed at $1.43 to $1.51. | High |
| Valuation | At $25.01, HRL screens near 29.49x TTM EPS, 16.39x forward adjusted EPS, 1.13x sales, 19.86x free cash flow, and a 4.68% dividend yield. A financial rigor recheck gave 29.42x TTM PE and 19.85x P/FCF. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above its 50-day moving average near $24.34 and 200-day moving average near $23.32, with RSI around 50. That is a repair setup, not a full trend reversal while the stock remains below the $29.35 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include commodity input inflation, weak consumer trade-down behavior, turkey and snack nuts execution, food safety events, China and export pressure, divestiture disruption, a dividend payout near 100% of GAAP EPS, and leadership transition execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases and StockAnalysis agree on core sales, earnings, share count, and market cap. Return confidence is lower because margin repair and category demand are hard to forecast. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HRL looks more like a watchlist turnaround than a high-certainty compounder until organic sales growth, adjusted operating margin, GAAP earnings quality, and dividend coverage improve together. | Medium-low |
HRL AI stock forecast
The HRL AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Hormel earnings depend on pricing, volume, commodity costs, cost savings, advertising, turkey exposure, foodservice demand, China exports, the CERATTI divestiture, and leadership execution. Using a $25.01 price reference, a $1.48 to $1.49 FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus, and a three-year model checked with the financial rigor tool, the mechanical outcomes are about $35.70 in a bullish case, $27.60 in a base case, and $19.00 in a bearish case before dividends.
$34 to $37 before dividends
More likely if organic sales stay positive, commodity costs ease, adjusted operating income grows near the high end of guidance, GAAP EPS closes the gap with adjusted EPS, John Ghingo accelerates the modernization plan, and investors value HRL near 19x higher earnings.
$26 to $29 before dividends
More likely if Hormel delivers FY2026 adjusted EPS near the $1.43 to $1.51 guide, grows earnings in the low single digits after 2026, protects the dividend, and earns a mid-teens multiple near the $26.88 average analyst target.
$18 to $20 before dividends
More likely if Retail volumes weaken, commodity costs stay high, foodservice demand fades, the CERATTI and turkey divestitures reduce scale without enough margin offset, GAAP earnings stay below the dividend, or investors price HRL closer to 14x lower earnings.
HRL AI technical analysis
HRL AI technical analysis is cautiously constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $25.01, a market cap near $13.76 billion, a 50-day moving average near $24.34, a 200-day moving average near $23.32, RSI near 50.23, and 20-day average volume near 3.63 million shares. StockAnalysis lists a 52-week range of $19.70 to $29.35.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $25.01 close on July 31, 2026 | The July 31 close places HRL above the main moving averages but below the late-June high near $26.60. |
| Immediate support | $24.30 to $24.70 | This range brackets the 50-day moving average near $24.34 and the early-July and late-July trading lows. |
| Trend support | $23.30 to $23.50 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $23.32 and the late-June pullback low. |
| Deeper support | $19.70 to $20.00 | StockAnalysis lists $19.70 as the 52-week low. A break back toward that area would signal a failed turnaround trade. |
| Near resistance | $25.90 to $26.60 | This area includes the July 29 and July 28 intraday highs and the late-June high where HRL faded after the earnings rally. |
| Upper resistance | $29.00 to $29.35 | StockAnalysis lists the 52-week high at $29.35, above the current analyst average target of $26.88. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $24.34, 200-day near $23.32 | Price above both averages supports a short-term repair pattern, but the trend still needs better GAAP earnings confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.23 | Momentum is neutral rather than overbought, so follow-through depends on price holding above the moving averages. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.63 million shares | A breakout through the mid-$26s would be more credible if volume expands above the recent average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23.30, then below $19.70 | A sustained move below the 200-day moving-average zone would weaken the repair setup. A break of the 52-week low would reset the bear case. |
HRL AI trading strategy
The HRL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with organic sales, adjusted operating income, GAAP earnings quality, cost savings, commodity pressure, cash flow, dividend coverage, and the CEO transition.
Watch for HRL to hold above the $23.30 to $24.70 moving-average zone and reclaim $25.90 to $26.60 with stronger volume, stable FY2026 guidance, and continued organic sales growth.
A failed move through the mid-$26s followed by a close below the moving-average zone should reduce trend confidence, especially if Retail or commodity commentary weakens or the August 27 earnings report disappoints.
If HRL pulls back toward the moving averages without a permanent earnings reset, compare the lower price with adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow per share, dividend coverage, and management progress on cost savings.
Do not treat every dividend-yield spike as attractive if GAAP earnings remain below the dividend, free cash flow weakens, or sales growth depends mostly on pricing rather than volume.
Track Retail volume, Foodservice organic net sales, International profit, commodity costs, advertising, Transform and Modernize savings, cash from operations, capex, debt, dividend payout, and the timing of the CEO transition.
Position sizing should reflect that HRL can remain a stable food company while producing weak stock returns if margins do not recover or if the market refuses to pay a higher multiple.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Hormel for convenient, trusted protein and packaged food products across at-home meals, snacks, foodservice menus, and international channels. The core economic engine is branded distribution plus protein processing know-how.
The moat is built on household brands, retailer shelf space, foodservice relationships, scale purchasing, recipes, manufacturing assets, and category know-how. It is durable but not unbreakable because private label, retailer bargaining power, and commodity swings can pressure margins.
The thesis fails if cost savings do not show up in GAAP earnings, consumers trade down faster than Hormel can price, turkey and nut categories stay volatile, China remains soft, or a defensive-stock narrative hides low return on incremental capital.
John Ghingo was named chief executive officer effective October 26, 2026, succeeding interim CEO Jeff Ettinger after a deliberate transition. The current management test is execution speed and closing the gap between adjusted and GAAP earnings.
Protein-centric food, convenience meals, snacking, and foodservice solutions have long-term demand. The counterweight is a slow-growth packaged food industry where retailers, private label, inflation, and changing consumer preferences limit easy pricing power.
The current price implies that earnings recover from FY2025 pressure and the dividend remains secure. Margin of safety is moderate only if adjusted EPS converts into stronger GAAP earnings and free cash flow.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.01 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.76 billion as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market cap | August 1, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 550.31 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $12.11 billion | Hormel FY2025 results and StockAnalysis | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings attributable to Hormel | $478.2 million | Hormel FY2025 results and StockAnalysis | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 net sales | $2.97 billion, organic net sales up 3% | Hormel Q2 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 adjusted EPS | $0.40 | Hormel Q2 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $1.43 to $1.51 | Hormel Q2 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance | $1.28 to $1.37 | Hormel Q2 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $859.86 million cash and $2.86 billion total debt on the latest balance sheet snapshot | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 29.49x trailing PE, 16.39x forward PE, 1.13x sales, 19.86x P/FCF, 4.68% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial rigor recheck | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst price target range | $25 low, $26.88 average, $27 median, $30 high, consensus Hold | StockAnalysis forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day MA $24.34, 200-day MA $23.32, RSI 50.23, 20-day average volume 3.63 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| CEO succession | John Ghingo named chief executive officer effective October 26, 2026 | Hormel press release | July 28, 2026 |
| Portfolio action | Sale of CERATTI business in Brazil completed on July 31, 2026 | Hormel press release | July 31, 2026 |
This HRL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, commodity costs, consumer demand, leadership execution, interest rates, or market multiples change.
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