Tapestry, Inc. research snapshot
TPR AI stock analysis currently reads Tapestry, Inc. as a Coach-led accessible luxury company with strong FY2026 momentum, high gross margin, large buybacks, and a simplified portfolio after Stuart Weitzman was divested. The offset is that Kate Spade remains weak, the stock already prices in much of the Coach recovery, and tariff, China demand, fashion cycle, and multiple risk matter. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the latest available July 9 close was $139.93 and the price multiplied by 202.04 million shares produced market capitalization near $28.27 billion. The TPR AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$139.93
Market cap
$28.27 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Coach-led compounder, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Long-term trend intact, testing the 50-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tapestry sells branded handbags, accessories, lifestyle goods, and apparel through Coach and Kate Spade, with Coach producing most sales and operating profit. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from Coach brand equity, design cadence, leather goods know-how, direct-to-consumer data, retail execution, and global scale, but fashion relevance can fade quickly. | Medium-high |
| Management | Joanne Crevoiserat has emphasized the Amplify strategy, margin discipline, portfolio simplification, and cash returns. The key test is sustaining Coach without letting Kate Spade dilute returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 Q3 net sales rose 21% to $1.92 billion, gross margin was 76.9%, GAAP EPS was $1.65, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow reached $1.37 billion. | High |
| Valuation | Using the company FY2026 non-GAAP EPS outlook near $6.95, financial_rigor.py verified about 20.1x forward earnings and 5.45% free-cash-flow yield at $139.93. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TPR trades above key long-term moving averages but near recent resistance and below its $161.97 52-week high, so the setup needs breakout confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because Coach momentum and cash flow are strong, while Kate Spade weakness, tariffs, China exposure, fashion cyclicality, and high expectations can compress the multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials and quote math. Medium for forecast scenarios because brand heat and luxury consumer demand are hard to model. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business quality is better than the average apparel name, but the share price already reflects a strong Coach-led recovery. | Medium |
TPR AI stock forecast
The TPR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $139.93 July 9 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $6.95 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS produced mechanical three-year outputs near $285.40 in a bull case, $192.60 in a base case, and $111.20 in a bear case before dividends, execution risk, and multiple volatility.
$193 to $285
More likely if Coach keeps compounding with Gen Z and millennial customers, Kate Spade stabilizes, FY2026 adjusted free cash flow approaches $1.6 billion, buybacks reduce shares without weakening the balance sheet, and the market accepts a premium luxury multiple.
$140 to $193
More likely if Coach growth stays healthy but slows from the Q3 surge, Kate Spade remains a modest drag, tariffs are manageable, and TPR trades around a low-20s earnings multiple.
$111 to $139
More likely if fashion demand weakens, China or North America growth reverses, Kate Spade losses widen, tariff pressure reduces margins, or investors re-rate TPR closer to a cyclical apparel multiple.
TPR AI technical analysis
TPR AI technical analysis starts from the $139.93 July 9, 2026 close. Public technical data around the cutoff showed a 52-week high of $161.97, a 50-day simple moving average near $142.39, and a 200-day simple moving average near $126.20. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live chart levels should be confirmed before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $139.93 | StockAnalysis listed this regular-session close on July 9, 2026. The July 11 cutoff falls after the latest available close. |
| Near support | $126 to $140 | The recent close is near the lower edge of the short-term range. ChartExchange listed the 200-day moving average at $126.20, making the area above it the next broad support zone. |
| Near resistance | $142 to $162 | ChartExchange listed the 50-day moving average near $142.39, while the 52-week high was $161.97. Reclaiming the 50-day level is the first trend test. |
| 50-day moving average | About $142.39 | ChartExchange snapshot around the cutoff. Treat it as an approximate reference rather than a precise trade trigger. |
| 200-day moving average | About $126.20 | ChartExchange snapshot around the cutoff. Price remained above this long-term reference at the latest available close. |
| Momentum | Neutral, awaiting confirmation | The share price sat below the 50-day average and below the 52-week high, so a recovery through $142 is more informative than a single-day move. |
| Volume | About 3.1M 10-day average volume | ChartExchange listed 3.07 million shares for the 10-day average and 2.34 million for the 30-day average. |
| Volatility | Fashion-cycle equity risk | TPR can move sharply around guidance, tariff commentary, China demand, Coach trends, and Kate Spade turnaround evidence. |
| Invalidation | Failure below the $126 to $140 support zone | Failure to recover the 50-day area and a break toward the 200-day average would weaken the trend-following setup. |
TPR AI trading strategy
The TPR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a consumer brand stock with strong recent momentum. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, earnings calendar review, and fresh market data.
Wait for TPR to reclaim the $142 50-day area and then challenge the $162 high with volume near or above its average. Confirm that LULU, RL, NKE, and broader discretionary names are not breaking down.
A failed recovery that breaks toward the $126 long-term moving average or a guidance cut should invalidate the setup.
If TPR holds above the $126 to $140 support zone while Coach growth, gross margin, and buyback cadence remain intact, monitor whether buyers reclaim the 50-day moving average area.
Do not average down if the pullback is tied to weaker Coach demand, tariff pressure, or Kate Spade deterioration.
Track Coach revenue growth, Kate Spade operating profit, gross margin, Greater China demand, adjusted free cash flow, share repurchases, net debt, and FY2026 EPS guidance.
Reduce confidence if buybacks continue while organic growth slows and leverage or inventory risk rises.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Tapestry for accessible luxury identity, Coach craftsmanship, fashion novelty, brand trust, and broad direct-to-consumer availability.
The moat is strongest at Coach, where brand heat, product design, leather goods expertise, retail data, global stores, and marketing scale create repeat demand. It is weaker at Kate Spade until growth and margins recover.
The failure path is paying a premium multiple for a fashion cycle peak: Coach cools, Kate Spade stays weak, tariffs pressure margins, and buybacks cannot offset lower brand relevance.
Management has simplified the portfolio, raised FY2026 guidance, and committed large cash returns. Capital allocation quality depends on disciplined buybacks, brand investment, and avoiding another value-destructive acquisition cycle.
Accessible luxury benefits from global middle-class aspiration and direct-to-consumer data, but it is exposed to discretionary spending, China demand, social-media fashion cycles, tariffs, and resale alternatives.
At about 21x the company FY2026 EPS outlook, TPR has less obvious margin of safety than during earlier turnaround periods. Upside requires continued Coach strength and a credible Kate Spade path.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPR price | $139.93 at the July 9 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $28.27 billion, price times 202.04M shares | StockAnalysis quote plus ChartExchange shares outstanding | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 202.04 million | ChartExchange shares outstanding snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 net sales | $1.9206 billion, up 21% reported | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 gross margin | 76.9% | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 diluted EPS | $1.65 GAAP, $1.66 non-GAAP | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 net sales | $6.1276 billion | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Coach Q3 sales | $1.7010 billion, up 31% reported | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 brand table | July 11, 2026 |
| Kate Spade Q3 sales | $219.6 million, down 10% reported | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 brand table | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.0686 billion | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 balance sheet | July 11, 2026 |
| Total borrowings | $2.38 billion | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 outlook | Revenue near $7.95 billion, EPS near $6.95, adjusted free cash flow approaching $1.6 billion | Tapestry FY2026 Q3 outlook | July 11, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $92.62 to $161.97 | ChartExchange quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
This TPR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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