Bullish case
$180.00 to $235.00
More likely if Americas comparable sales improve, full-price selling recovers, China brand trust is repaired, gross margin stabilizes, and LULU reclaims its 200-day moving average with volume.
lululemon athletica inc. research snapshot
LULU AI Stock Analysis
LULU AI stock analysis reads lululemon athletica inc. as a high-quality athletic apparel brand that is still working through an earnings reset. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the quoted price was $118.87 based on the July 31, 2026 close, market capitalization was about $13.50 billion, and the stock had recovered about 14% off its June 52-week low near $104.44 while remaining well below its 200-day moving average near $159. The main decision point is whether North America can stabilize while international growth, product newness, and a still-unsettled leadership transition rebuild confidence. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$118.87
Market cap
$13.50 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Quality brand in an extended earnings reset
Trend status
Recovering off the lows but still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. LULU has current SEC filings, company earnings releases, a Q1 fiscal 2026 financial supplement, third-party financial databases, liquid quote data, and broad analyst coverage.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is consensus anchoring after a sharp drawdown. A big decline can make the stock look statistically cheap, while repeated negative headlines can make the brand look permanently impaired. The analysis separates verified operating data from judgment about how fast brand demand recovers.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The business has a recognized premium brand and still-strong returns on capital, but the investment case depends on stabilizing Americas comparable sales, gross margin, product relevance, China brand trust, and a clearer leadership path.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | lululemon sells premium athletic apparel through stores, ecommerce, and international expansion. The long-term unit economics remain good, but near-term Americas demand is soft and margin is under pressure. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is mostly brand, product fit, community, store productivity, and premium pricing. It is not protected by high switching costs or network effects. | Medium |
| Management | Interim co-CEO leadership is focused on full-price selling, product renewal, and cost discipline. Execution risk stays elevated until a stable CEO path and stronger North America evidence appear. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue grew 5% to $11.10 billion, but Q1 fiscal 2026 operating income fell 37%, gross margin dropped 410 basis points to 54.2%, and diluted EPS fell to $1.69 from $2.60. | High |
| Valuation | The stock trades near 9.6x trailing EPS and about 10.7x to 10.8x forward EPS using the $118.87 quote and $10.98 consensus forward EPS, but the low multiple reflects earnings revision risk. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The technical trend is improving from a weak base. The quote is above the 50-day average near $118.70 but still far below the 200-day average near $159.10. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because brand momentum, markdowns, tariffs, a consumer lawsuit, China brand trust, inventory, and leadership transition can all pressure estimates. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for filings, company releases, market cap math, and recent operating metrics. Lower confidence for brand recovery timing and China sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page can support research screens, but it does not justify a buy or sell action without live chart review and updated filings. | Medium-low |
LULU AI stock forecast
LULU AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The LULU AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $118.87 quote. The bullish case requires visible stabilization in Americas sales, a restored gross margin, China brand trust repair, and evidence that international growth keeps scaling. The base case assumes low growth and valuation near current expectations. The bearish case assumes the reset continues and the market prices LULU as a structurally slower apparel retailer.
Base case
$120.00 to $145.00
More likely if fiscal 2026 revenue stays near the $11.00 billion to $11.15 billion company outlook and the market values the stock around a low double-digit earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$70.00 to $95.00
More likely if earnings keep resetting lower, tariff and markdown pressure persists, China demand slows, brand heat fades with younger consumers, and the stock breaks below the support zone after the data cutoff.
LULU AI technical analysis
LULU AI Technical Analysis
LULU AI technical analysis starts from the $118.87 close on July 31, 2026, the $117.87 to $121.00 intraday range, and the $104.44 to $225.98 52-week range. The quote sits just above the 50-day moving average near $118.70 and far below the 200-day moving average near $159.10. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live RSI, current volume, and intraday momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $118.87 | July 31, 2026 close, used as the quote for this page with an August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $104.44 to $117.87 | The lower bound is the reported 52-week low from June 22, 2026 and the upper bound is the recent intraday low. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $121.00 to $127.73 | The lower bound is the recent intraday high and the upper bound is the consensus analyst target. A sustained close above this zone would improve the short-term setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $118.70 | The quote is roughly flat against this level, so the short-term trend is neutral to slightly positive rather than clearly up. |
| 200-day moving average | $159.10 | The stock is about 25% below this long-term trend line, which is why the trend is still classified as weak. |
| Momentum | Recovering, RSI near 52.5 | The stock rose about 14% from the June low, and the reported RSI near 52.5 sits in a neutral zone, leaving room in both directions. |
| Volume | About 2.51 million average, with 16.2 million on June 5 | The June 5 guidance reaction saw capitulation-like volume. Recent average daily volume near 2.51 million is normal, so the recovery needs follow-through volume. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | Guidance cuts, tariff news, the consumer lawsuit, China headlines, and leadership updates can create wide daily movement. |
| Invalidation | Close below $104.44 | A decisive close below the reported 52-week low would weaken any recovery setup. |
LULU AI trading strategy
LULU AI Trading Strategy Framework
The LULU AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a premium consumer brand in an extended earnings reset. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh checks of filings, guidance, and live price action.
Trend-following setup
Wait for LULU to hold above the support zone and reclaim the resistance zone near $121.00 to $127.73 with improving volume. Confirmation should include better price action after earnings on or around September 3, 2026.
A failed breakout or a close below the support zone should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If LULU retests the 52-week low without a new thesis break, compare the price move with gross margin, inventory, Americas comps, China brand trust, and leadership progress evidence.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of whether earnings estimates are still falling.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for lululemon: full-price selling, product newness, gross margin, China Mainland growth, store productivity, the tariff lawsuit, and leadership stability.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by short covering or broad market moves without matching operating data.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay lululemon for premium athletic apparel, fit, fabric innovation, product feel, brand identity, community association, and store or digital convenience.
Moat
The moat is brand-led. Product quality, store experience, community marketing, and premium positioning support pricing power, but competition from Nike, Alo, Vuori, and local China brands keeps the moat under pressure.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if Americas demand keeps contracting, markdowns dilute the brand, tariffs and a consumer lawsuit raise costs, China brand trust stays damaged, or product execution misses younger consumers.
Management
Interim co-CEO leadership has emphasized full-price growth, product renewal, and operating discipline. A proxy fight with the founder was settled in June 2026, but the open question is whether a stable permanent CEO can rebuild confidence.
Industry trend
Athleisure remains a durable consumer category, but it is no longer a one-way growth market. Premium competitors attack the same customer, and discretionary spending can cycle.
Valuation and margin of safety
A 9.6x trailing P/E and about 10.7x forward P/E look optically low versus LULU history, but margin of safety depends on whether fiscal 2026 EPS guidance near $10.95 to $11.15 is a trough rather than another step down.
Source-backed data
LULU Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LULU price | $118.87, July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com LULU quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.50 billion, verified as $118.87 x 113.55 million shares with 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 113.55 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue | $11.103 billion, up 4.86% | lululemon FY2025 results and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income | $1.579 billion | StockAnalysis.com and lululemon FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue | $2.472 billion, up 4%; Americas down 3%, International up 22% | lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 release | June 4, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 gross margin | 54.2%, down 410 basis points | lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 release | June 4, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 operating income | $276.9 million, down 37%; operating margin down 730 basis points | lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 release | June 4, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.5 billion at Q1 fiscal 2026, with about $593.6 million of credit capacity | lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 release | June 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 company outlook | Revenue $11.000 billion to $11.150 billion; diluted EPS $10.95 to $11.15 | lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 release | June 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, with a consensus target near $127.73, a median near $122.5, and a range from $88 to $280 from 34 analysts | StockAnalysis.com LULU forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Store count | 816 company-operated stores at Q1 fiscal 2026, up from 811 at fiscal 2025 | lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 release | June 4, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | Bull $235, base $132, bear $72 from a three-year EPS and P/E scenario model on $10.98 forward EPS | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Use Pineify AI Stock PickerBuild an AI trading strategyRun an AI stock screenerRead the NKE AI stock analysis
This LULU AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
Related Tools
Trading Strategy Builder
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Open
Stock Screener
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Open
AI Stock Picker & Screener
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
Open