NIKE, Inc. research snapshot
NKE AI stock analysis currently reads NIKE, Inc. as a world-class athletic brand whose stock still reflects weak digital sales, Greater China pressure, Converse declines, and uncertainty around the Elliott Hill turnaround. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, NKE closed at $43.21, market capitalization was about $63.99 billion, and fiscal 2026 revenue was $46.4 billion with diluted EPS of $2.10. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$43.21
Market cap
$63.99 billion
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Global brand in a slow turnaround
Trend status
Base-building attempt below the long-term average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nike sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and brand experiences at global scale. The business remains high quality, but recent growth is weak and category momentum is uneven. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is mostly brand, athlete relationships, product design, distribution scale, and marketing reach. Switching costs are low, and competitors can attack fashion cycles quickly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Elliott Hill is refocusing Nike on sport, performance product, marketplace discipline, and wholesale relationships. The evidence is early and still mixed. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue was flat at $46.4 billion, gross margin improved 20 basis points to 42.9%, and net income fell 3% to $3.1 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $43.21 and $2.10 EPS, the verified trailing P/E is 20.58x and P/S is 1.38x. The multiple is not demanding for Nike history, but earnings recovery is not yet proven. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The stock is near the bottom of its 52-week range, close to the 50-day average, and still below the 200-day average. That points to a repair attempt, not a confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because China weakness, digital traffic declines, Converse pressure, fashion risk, tariff noise, and wholesale transition can keep estimates unstable. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, quote data, valuation math, and recent technical levels. Lower confidence for product cycle timing and consumer brand heat. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. NKE can fit a turnaround watchlist, but a buy or sell decision needs live chart confirmation and updated evidence from the next management update. | Medium-low |
NKE AI stock forecast
The NKE AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $43.21 close. The bullish case requires proof that performance product wins, North America strength, and gross margin discipline can offset Greater China, Converse, and digital weakness. The base case assumes Nike remains a slow-growth global brand while the market waits for clearer turnaround evidence. The bearish case assumes brand relevance and earnings power keep resetting lower.
$55.00 to $68.80
More likely if revenue growth turns positive, Nike Direct stabilizes, Greater China declines narrow, Converse stops shrinking, gross margin expands without one-time tariff benefits, and NKE reclaims the 200-day moving average.
$40.00 to $44.60
More likely if fiscal 2027 looks like a transition year, EPS grows slowly from the $2.10 base, and the market values the stock near a 20x earnings multiple.
$22.90 to $35.00
More likely if China and digital sales keep falling, sportswear and Jordan weakness persist, wholesale cleanup causes more margin pressure, and NKE breaks below the $40.00 52-week low.
NKE AI technical analysis
NKE AI technical analysis starts from the $43.21 close on July 7, 2026, the $42.88 to $44.04 daily range, the $40.00 to $80.17 52-week range, and public moving-average data available near the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, volume, RSI, and moving averages should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.21 | StockAnalysis reported the close at $43.21 on July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $40.00 to $42.88 | The lower bound is the reported 52-week low and the upper bound is the recent intraday low. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $44.04 to $51.30 | The lower bound is the recent intraday high and the upper bound is the reported average analyst target. A sustained move through this zone would improve the setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $43.76 | StockAnalysis placed the 50-day average slightly above the latest close, while other technical sources showed nearby values around $42 to $44. |
| 200-day moving average | $57.03 | StockAnalysis placed the 200-day average far above the latest close, so the long-term trend is still damaged. |
| Momentum | Neutral to fragile | RSI near 49 and a share price close to the 52-week low suggest stabilization is possible, but upside confirmation is not yet strong. |
| Volume | 17.8 million latest volume, 27.0 million 20-day average | Volume remains elevated after earnings and turnaround headlines. Confirm live volume before acting on any breakout. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | Turnaround stocks can move sharply around guidance, China data, product cycle updates, and investor day commentary. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40.00 | A decisive close below the reported 52-week low would weaken the base-building thesis. |
NKE AI trading strategy
The NKE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a global consumer brand in turnaround mode. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, updated filings, and live chart confirmation.
Wait for NKE to reclaim the near resistance zone, hold above the 50-day average, and show improving volume. A stronger version of the setup would require a later move back above the 200-day average.
A failed breakout or a close back below the support zone should invalidate the setup.
If NKE retests the $40.00 low without a fresh earnings break, compare price action with revenue trend, gross margin, China sales, Nike Direct, and inventory evidence.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a check that EPS expectations are not still falling.
Track Nike Brand revenue, Nike Direct traffic, wholesale sell-through, Greater China demand, Converse stabilization, gross margin quality, and management commentary on the Sport Offense strategy.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes from short-term tariff accounting, broad market rallies, or one-time earnings benefits without matching operating improvement.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nike for athletic performance, style, brand identity, athlete association, and broad access through wholesale, stores, apps, and digital commerce.
Nike has a brand-led moat supported by athlete endorsements, product innovation, sport marketing, design talent, and distribution scale. The moat is narrower than the brand story suggests because footwear and apparel customers can switch quickly.
The thesis can fail if Nike loses product heat, younger consumers migrate to specialist brands, China stays weak, digital traffic keeps falling, or wholesale cleanup trades near-term growth for lower long-term relevance.
Elliott Hill is trying to restore sport-led execution after a period of overreliance on lifestyle franchises and direct digital channels. The key question is whether management can improve growth without diluting the brand through promotions.
Global sport, fitness, and casual athletic wear remain durable categories, but the industry is mature and crowded. Nike competes with Adidas, On, Hoka, Lululemon, Anta, local China brands, and many niche performance labels.
A 20.58x trailing P/E and 1.38x P/S are lower than many historical Nike periods, but margin of safety depends on whether $2.10 EPS is near a trough and whether revenue can grow again without heavy discounting.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKE price | $43.21 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis NKE quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $63.99 billion, verified as $43.21 x 1.4818 billion shares with 0.06% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.48 billion | StockAnalysis statistics and Macrotrends share data | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue | $46.4 billion | NIKE FY2026 release and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 net income | $3.1 billion, down 3% | NIKE FY2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS | $2.10 | NIKE FY2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Gross margin | 42.9% for fiscal 2026, up 20 basis points | NIKE FY2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $9.0 billion company reported, $9.03 billion StockAnalysis cash | NIKE FY2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | $11.03 billion debt and negative $2.01 billion net cash | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation | 20.58x P/E, 1.38x P/S, 4.31x P/B, 2.12 PEG, 1.42x EV/Sales, 3.80% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | 20.32% insider ownership and 65.69% institutional ownership reported by StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $40.00 to $80.17, 50-day average $43.76, 200-day average $57.03, RSI 49.00 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 channel mix | Wholesale $27.5 billion, up 6%; NIKE Direct $17.7 billion, down 6%; Converse $1.2 billion, down 31% | NIKE FY2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
This NKE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data at the cutoff date and can be wrong if Nike fundamentals, valuation, market conditions, or technical levels change.
