NIKE, Inc. research snapshot
NKE AI stock analysis currently reads NIKE, Inc. as a world-class athletic brand whose stock is trading near 12-year lows while the company restructures China distribution, rebuilds NIKE Direct, and manages a still-declining Converse line. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NKE closed at $41.71 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $61.88 billion, and fiscal 2026 revenue was $46.4 billion with diluted EPS of $2.10. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$41.71
Market cap
$61.88 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Global brand in a deep turnaround
Trend status
Near 12-year lows, below the 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nike sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and brand experiences at global scale. The business remains high quality, but revenue is flat and category momentum is uneven. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is mostly brand, athlete relationships, product design, distribution scale, and marketing reach. Switching costs are low, and competitors can attack fashion cycles quickly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Elliott Hill is refocusing on sport, performance product, and marketplace discipline. The new China e-commerce shift adds execution risk, and the evidence so far is early and mixed. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue was flat at $46.4 billion, gross margin improved 20 basis points to 42.9%, and net income fell 3% to $3.1 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $41.71 and $2.10 EPS, the trailing P/E is 19.86x and P/S is 1.33x. The multiple is low for Nike history, but earnings are at a cyclical low and include tariff recovery benefits. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The stock is near the bottom of its 52-week range and below both the 50-day and 200-day averages. That points to a downtrend that is still unproven as a reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because China sales have fallen for eight straight quarters, the distribution shift adds uncertainty, and digital, Converse, fashion, and tariff risks remain. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, quote data, valuation math, and recent technical levels. Lower confidence for China execution and the timing of the product cycle. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. NKE can fit a turnaround watchlist, but a buy or sell decision needs live chart confirmation and updated evidence from the next management update. | Medium-low |
NKE AI stock forecast
The NKE AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $41.71 close. The bullish case requires proof that the China shift protects pricing, performance product wins, and gross margin can recover without depending on tariff refunds. The base case assumes fiscal 2027 remains a transition year while the market waits for clearer turnaround evidence. The bearish case assumes China and digital weakness keep resetting earnings power lower.
$50.00 to $65.00
More likely if the China direct-to-consumer shift protects pricing, Greater China declines narrow, NIKE Direct stabilizes, Converse stops shrinking, gross margin improves without one-time tariff benefits, and NKE reclaims the 50-day moving average.
$38.00 to $47.00
More likely if fiscal 2027 is a transition year, revenue stays roughly flat near $45.7 billion, EPS grows slowly from the $2.10 base, and the market values the stock near a 20x earnings multiple.
$23.00 to $35.00
More likely if China sales keep falling, the distribution shift disrupts near-term sell-through, Converse declines persist, and NKE breaks below the $40.00 52-week low.
NKE AI technical analysis
NKE AI technical analysis starts from the $41.71 close on July 31, 2026, the $41.49 to $42.08 daily range, the $40.00 to $80.17 52-week range, and public moving-average data available near the August 2, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, volume, RSI, and moving averages should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $41.71 | StockAnalysis reported the close at $41.71 on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $40.00 to $41.49 | The lower bound is the reported 52-week low and the upper bound is the recent intraday low. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $43.54 to $51.12 | The lower bound is the 50-day moving average and the upper bound is the reported average analyst target. A sustained move through this zone would improve the setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $43.54 | StockAnalysis placed the 50-day average above the latest close, so short-term momentum is still weak. |
| 200-day moving average | $54.56 | StockAnalysis placed the 200-day average far above the latest close, so the long-term trend is still damaged. |
| Momentum | Weak | RSI near 43.8 with the share price near the 52-week low suggests sellers remain in control, and confirmation of a base is not yet present. |
| Volume | 22.6 million latest volume, 17.1 million 20-day average | Volume was above the 20-day average on the latest session. Confirm live volume before acting on any breakout. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | Turnaround stocks can move sharply around China news, guidance, tariff refunds, product cycle updates, and investor commentary. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40.00 | A decisive close below the reported 52-week low would weaken any base-building thesis. |
NKE AI trading strategy
The NKE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a global consumer brand in deep turnaround mode. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, updated filings, and live chart confirmation.
Wait for NKE to reclaim the near resistance zone, hold above the 50-day average, and show improving volume. A stronger version of the setup would require a later move back above the 200-day average.
A failed breakout or a close back below the support zone should invalidate the setup.
If NKE retests the $40.00 low without a fresh earnings break, compare price action with revenue trend, gross margin quality, China sales, NIKE Direct, and inventory evidence.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a check that EPS expectations are not still falling.
Track Greater China sell-through, the China e-commerce shift execution, Nike Brand revenue, NIKE Direct traffic, Converse stabilization, gross margin quality, and management commentary on the Sport Offense strategy.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes from tariff refund accounting, broad market rallies, or one-time earnings benefits without matching operating improvement.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nike for athletic performance, style, brand identity, athlete association, and broad access through wholesale, stores, apps, and digital commerce.
Nike has a brand-led moat supported by athlete endorsements, product innovation, sport marketing, design talent, and distribution scale. The moat is narrower than the brand story suggests because footwear and apparel customers can switch quickly.
The thesis can fail if the China distribution shift disrupts near-term sales, younger consumers keep migrating to specialist brands, digital traffic keeps falling, or wholesale cleanup trades near-term growth for lower long-term relevance.
Elliott Hill is trying to restore sport-led execution and now protect pricing in China by moving online sales to owned channels. The key question is whether management can fix growth without diluting the brand through promotions.
Global sport, fitness, and casual athletic wear remain durable categories, but the industry is mature and crowded. Nike competes with Adidas, On, Hoka, Asics, Lululemon, Anta, local China brands, and many niche performance labels.
A 19.86x trailing P/E and 1.33x P/S are low for Nike history, but margin of safety depends on whether $2.10 EPS is near a trough, whether tariff recovery is repeatable, and whether revenue can grow again without heavy discounting.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKE price | $41.71 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis NKE quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $61.88 billion, verified as $41.71 x 1.4834 billion shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.48 billion | StockAnalysis statistics and Macrotrends share data | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue | $46.4 billion, flat on a reported basis and down 2% currency-neutral | NIKE FY2026 release and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 net income | $3.1 billion, down 3% | NIKE FY2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS | $2.10 | NIKE FY2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Gross margin | 42.9% for fiscal 2026, up 20 basis points | NIKE FY2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fourth quarter gross margin | 49.2%, up 890 basis points with a roughly 900 basis point IEEPA tariff recovery benefit | NIKE FY2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $9.0 billion company reported, $9.03 billion StockAnalysis cash | NIKE FY2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | $11.04 billion debt and negative $2.02 billion net cash | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation | 19.86x P/E, 1.33x P/S, 4.16x P/B, 1.85 PEG, 1.38x EV/Sales, 3.93% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | 39 analysts, consensus Buy, average target $51.12, target range $23 to $94 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Insider and institutional ownership | 20.11% insider ownership and 65.24% institutional ownership reported by StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $40.00 to $80.17, 50-day average $43.54, 200-day average $54.56, RSI 43.82 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 channel mix | Wholesale $27.5 billion, up 6%; NIKE Direct $17.7 billion, down 6%; Converse $1.2 billion, down 31% | NIKE FY2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Greater China pressure | China sales have declined for eight consecutive quarters, with annual revenue at its lowest level in eight years | CNBC and Reuters reporting | August 2, 2026 |
This NKE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data at the cutoff date and can be wrong if Nike fundamentals, valuation, market conditions, or technical levels change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
