Taylor Morrison Home Corporation research snapshot
TMHC AI stock analysis currently reads Taylor Morrison Home as a well-run mid-sized U.S. homebuilder with strong entry-level and move-up market positioning, a solid balance sheet, and a transformative pending acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway announced on May 31, 2026 for about $8.5 billion. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, TMHC traded at $71.85, with a verified market capitalization of $6.61 billion on about 92 million shares. FY2025 and TTM through March 2026 show profitable operations with $7.6 billion of TTM revenue and $667.7 million of TTM net income. This page uses scenario ranges and source-backed checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$71.85
Market cap
$6.61 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Mid-sized U.S. homebuilder with a pending Berkshire Hathaway acquisition, good operational track record, and housing-cycle sensitivity.
Trend status
Constructive but merger-capped. TMHC trades near the $72.50 52-week high, influenced by the pending Berkshire Hathaway acquisition at a premium.
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Taylor Morrison designs, builds, and sells homes across entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle segments in 12 U.S. states, with build-to-rent and financial services attached. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from land pipeline, local market knowledge, brand recognition in select regions, scale purchasing, and the Esplanade and Yardly brand portfolio rather than network effects or hard IP. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Sheryl Palmer has led the company since 2007 with a steady hand through housing cycles. The pending Berkshire acquisition reflects management credibility and a quality business. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $7.62 billion and TTM net income of $667.66 million show a profitable homebuilder. Q1 2026 revenue fell to $1.39 billion from $2.10 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting seasonality and housing-cycle pressure. | High |
| Valuation | At $71.85, verified math gives about 10.7x TTM EPS, 1.06x book value, and 13.1x free cash flow. The pending Berkshire acquisition at roughly $92 per share implies a significant premium to standalone trading. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TMHC trades near the 52-week high of $72.50 on merger optimism, well above the $54.15 52-week low, but price action is now primarily driven by deal expectations rather than organic technical signals. | Medium |
| Risk level | The primary risk is deal failure. If the merger closes, downside risk is minimal at the acquisition price. If the deal fails, TMHC would face housing-cycle headwinds, mortgage-rate sensitivity, and a potential sharp re-rating. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and acquisition terms. Medium for standalone trading scenarios because the Berkshire deal fundamentally changes the return profile. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The pending Berkshire acquisition provides a framework for valuation, but deal timing, regulatory approval, and the standalone housing cycle all affect actual outcomes. | Medium |
TMHC AI stock forecast
The TMHC AI stock forecast is unusual because a pending acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway sets a clear upper boundary. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish standalone case near $110, a base case near $77, and a bearish case near $46 before the acquisition premium. If the Berkshire deal closes at the announced $8.5 billion enterprise value, the per-share value near $92 would cap upside but also define a floor.
$88 to $110
More likely if the Berkshire Hathaway acquisition closes near the announced terms, or if the deal fails but housing demand strengthens, mortgage rates ease, and the market revalues TMHC at a higher multiple on improved earnings.
$75 to $95
More likely if the Berkshire acquisition proceeds to closing with modest adjustments or timeline extension, and TMHC continues normal operations through the regulatory process.
$40 to $55
More likely if the deal fails on regulatory, shareholder, or financing grounds, and TMHC trades back to standalone homebuilder valuation levels, facing affordability, margin, and cycle risks without an acquisition premium.
TMHC AI technical analysis
TMHC AI technical analysis is merger-driven as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance showed TMHC at $71.85 with a $71.81 to $71.94 day range and a $54.15 to $72.50 52-week range. The stock has rallied strongly from the $54 level since the Berkshire acquisition news, and now trades in a tight range near the high end, which is typical for pre-close merger-arbitrage behavior.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.85 | Google Finance showed TMHC at $71.85 on July 10, 2026, near the 52-week high. Yahoo Finance showed $71.81 near the previous close. |
| Implied acquisition value per share | Approximately $92.00 (estimated) | Based on the $8.5 billion announced enterprise value, adjusting for net debt of about $1.76 billion. The gap to the current price reflects deal-closing risk and timeline uncertainty. |
| Near support | $68 to $71 | The post-announcement consolidation zone. A break below $68 would signal increased deal-closing uncertainty. |
| Major support | $54 to $60 | The pre-announcement trading range and 52-week low of $54.15. This area represents standalone homebuilder valuation without the Berkshire premium. |
| Near resistance | $72.50 | The 52-week high. A breakout above this level would require positive merger news such as regulatory clearance or shareholder approval. |
| Upside target | $85 to $95 | The implied deal range depending on final per-share consideration, adjustments, and deal-closing probability as priced by the market. |
| Volume | 1.49M versus 4.74M average on July 10 | Google Finance reported volume significantly below average, consistent with a stock that has limited standalone catalysts while awaiting merger progress. |
| Volatility | $54.15 to $72.50 52-week range | The range is wide because the stock moved from standalone homebuilder pricing to merger-driven pricing following the Berkshire announcement on May 31, 2026. |
| Invalidation | Close below $58 or deal cancellation news | A decisive move below the pre-announcement range on confirmed deal-failure news would fundamentally reset the investment framework. |
TMHC AI trading strategy
The TMHC AI trading strategy addresses two distinct regimes: a merger-arbitrage framework while the Berkshire Hathaway deal is pending, and a standalone cyclical homebuilder framework if the deal fails. This is not personal advice and should be paired with the latest merger-regulatory filings, housing data, and position-size limits.
If the investor believes the Berkshire Hathaway acquisition will close near the announced terms, the current gap between $71.85 and the approximate $92 per-share deal value provides a return tied to deal-closing probability and timeline. Assess regulatory risk, shareholder vote timing, and any antitrust or CFIUS review.
The primary risk is deal failure. If the merger is blocked or abandoned, the stock could fall to the standalone homebuilder range of $40 to $60, representing a 20% to 40% loss. Position size must account for binary deal risk.
If the deal fails, TMHC would trade on its own fundamentals. Assess Q2 2026 earnings (expected July 23, 2026), orders, backlog, gross margin, incentives, land spend, buyback activity, and housing-market conditions across its 12-state footprint.
Do not confuse the post-deal-announcement price with standalone intrinsic value. If trading standalone TMHC, use stop levels relative to book value, replacement cost, and homebuilder peer multiples rather than the deal price.
Track TMHC shareholder meeting date, regulatory filings (HSR, CFIUS if applicable), Berkshire SEC filings about the deal, and any financing updates. Also monitor Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026 for standalone operating trends that inform the deal-failure scenario.
Reduce position size before any binary event such as the shareholder vote or regulatory decision. The stock can gap sharply on unexpected deal news.
Investment research summary
Taylor Morrison is paid when households buy new homes across entry-level, move-up, and active-adult segments, plus related financial services attachment. The customer buys location, floor plan, brand trust, and financing convenience.
The moat is built from land pipeline, regional market knowledge, scale purchasing, and the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brand names. Switching costs are low for buyers, but land control and local relationships create some advantage against new entrants.
The thesis fails if the Berkshire acquisition is blocked or abandoned, leaving TMHC exposed to housing-cycle headwinds, margin pressure, incentives, and a low P/E on declining earnings. A second failure path is paying merger-arbitrage spreads that do not compensate for deal risk.
CEO Sheryl Palmer has led the company since its formation in 2007, demonstrating stability through the 2008 housing crisis and multiple cycles. The Berkshire acquisition validates the quality of the platform she has built.
U.S. housing faces long-term demand from household formation and underbuilding, offset by near-term mortgage-rate pressure, affordability constraints, and elevated builder incentives. TMHC operates across geographically diverse markets including Texas, Florida, California, and the Carolinas.
At 10.7x TTM earnings and 1.06x book value, TMHC looks inexpensive on a standalone basis, but the stock is now primarily priced for the Berkshire acquisition. The margin of safety depends on whether the deal closes as announced.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMHC share price | $71.85 on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance quote and Yahoo Finance cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.61 billion, verified as $71.85 x 92.00M shares with 0.00% variance | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 92.00 million | Google Finance company data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $7.62 billion (FY2025: $7.10B, TTM through March 2026) | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance quarterly financials cross-validated with 0.07% variance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $667.66 million | Yahoo Finance income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $6.71 | Yahoo Finance statistics and Google Finance EPS data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $1.39 billion revenue, $98.62 million net income, $1.12 diluted EPS | Google Finance quarterly financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | $652.93 million cash, approximately $2.41 billion total debt, net debt of about $1.76 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics and Google Finance balance sheet data | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Approximately $67.80 (estimated from P/B of 1.06x at $71.85) | Google Finance P/B ratio and share price calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $503.8 million levered FCF (TTM), about $5.48 per share | Yahoo Finance cash flow data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | 10.71x PE, 1.06x P/B, 0.94x P/S, 13.11x P/FCF, 7.63% FCF yield, 11.11% ROE | financial_rigor.py verification using Yahoo Finance and Google Finance data | July 12, 2026 |
| Berkshire Hathaway acquisition | Announced May 31, 2026, approximately $8.5 billion enterprise value | Berkshire Hathaway press release, multiple financial news sources | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario standalone valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $109.9, base $77.0, bearish $46.0 using $6.71 EPS, 8% / 3% / -5% growth and 13x / 10.5x / 8x PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 52-week range $54.15 to $72.50, implied deal value approximately $92 per share | Google Finance and Yahoo Finance price data | July 12, 2026 |
This TMHC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The pending Berkshire Hathaway acquisition introduces binary closing risk that is different from normal equity risk. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if the acquisition outcome, housing demand, mortgage rates, incentives, margins, or market valuation changes.
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