PulteGroup, Inc. research snapshot
PHM AI stock analysis currently reads PulteGroup as a well-capitalized U.S. homebuilder with strong returns, active buybacks, and a cyclical demand problem rather than a broken business model. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, PHM traded at $129.92, and market cap math using 190.49 million shares implied about $24.75 billion. The AI view is constructive on liquidity, order resilience, and disciplined capital allocation, but more cautious on affordability, incentives, margin pressure, and the risk that housing demand remains rate-sensitive. This page uses scenarios, not a guaranteed price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$129.92
Market cap
$24.74 billion reported, $24.75 billion verified by price times shares
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Profitable homebuilder with strong liquidity, good capital returns, and housing-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Mixed to constructive. PHM trades above its long-term moving-average support zone but below the $144.50 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PulteGroup sells new homes across multiple U.S. buyer segments and earns additional income through mortgage and financial services attachment. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is based on land pipeline, scale purchasing, local market execution, brand portfolio, mortgage capture, and balance sheet strength rather than network effects or hard intellectual property. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Ryan Marshall has emphasized land investment, cash discipline, dividends, and repurchases, including $308 million of Q1 2026 buybacks and a larger repurchase authorization. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $17.31 billion and net income was $2.22 billion, but TTM revenue fell to $16.83 billion and Q1 2026 showed lower closings, lower average selling price, and lower margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $129.92, verified valuation math gives about 12.5x TTM EPS, 1.9x book value, 13.9x free cash flow, and a 7.2% FCF yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The chart has a constructive long-term bias above the long-term moving average, but near-term resistance around $134 to $135 and the $144.50 high still matter. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because high rates, incentives, land costs, buyer confidence, and housing inventory can reduce margins even when orders remain positive. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts, medium for the three-year earnings cycle and trading setup assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. PHM can be attractive if earnings stabilize and capital returns continue, but the stock depends on housing-cycle timing as much as company execution. | Medium |
PHM AI stock forecast
The PHM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $129.92 price, TTM EPS of $10.37, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $170, a base value near $125, and a bearish value near $65 before dividends.
$160 to $175
More likely if mortgage rates ease, orders stay positive, incentives stop rising, gross margin stabilizes above the mid-20s, cash returns reduce share count, and investors keep valuing PHM near a low-teens earnings multiple.
$118 to $132
More likely if EPS compounds near 3%, demand stays uneven, buybacks help per-share math, and the market values PHM around 11x earnings while waiting for clearer housing-cycle recovery.
$60 to $70
More likely if affordability worsens, incentives rise again, land costs pressure margin, orders turn negative, spec inventory grows, or investors rerate homebuilders toward recession-level multiples.
PHM AI technical analysis
PHM AI technical analysis is mixed to constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. Investing.com showed PHM at $129.92 with a $129.70 to $132.90 day range and a $107.16 to $144.50 52-week range. StockInvest listed long-term support near $123.17, short-term resistance near $134.33, accumulated-volume support near $127.56, and weekly average daily volatility near 2.61%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $129.92 | Investing.com showed PHM trading at $129.92 on July 8, 2026, with the prior close also at $129.92. |
| Near support | $127.56 | StockInvest identified accumulated-volume support near this level, which can matter for short-term mean reversion checks. |
| Long-term support | $123.17 | StockInvest listed long-term moving-average support near $123.17. A close below it would weaken the constructive setup. |
| Lower support | $107.16 | Investing.com listed the 52-week low at $107.16, a deeper housing-cycle stress reference. |
| Near resistance | $134.33 to $135.17 | StockInvest cited short-term moving-average resistance around this zone. A reclaim would improve the trend-following setup. |
| Higher resistance | $144.50 | Investing.com listed the 52-week high at $144.50, the major upside reference for a confirmed breakout. |
| Moving averages | Short-term resistance above price, long-term average below price | The short-term average is a resistance check while the long-term average supports the broader trend. |
| Momentum | Mixed | StockInvest showed a buy signal from the long-term average and MACD, but a sell signal from the short-term average and a recent pivot top. |
| Volume | 981.3K versus 1.91M average | Robinhood reported July 8 volume below the average, so any breakout would need better participation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $123, then $107 | A decisive close below long-term support would shift the framework from pullback to trend damage. |
PHM AI trading strategy
The PHM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical homebuilder with good liquidity and margin pressure. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, current mortgage-rate data, position sizing, and upcoming earnings updates.
Watch for PHM to reclaim $134 to $135 and hold that zone on stronger volume. Confirmation should include stable orders, no fresh gross-margin warning, cash returns that continue reducing share count, and a market backdrop with lower mortgage-rate pressure.
A failed breakout that closes below $123 should reduce confidence because the long-term support signal would no longer be intact.
If PHM pulls back toward $127 or $123 without a clear deterioration in orders, backlog, balance sheet quality, or gross margin guidance, the setup becomes a cyclical value review rather than a pure momentum trade.
Do not average down only because the P/E looks low. Homebuilder earnings can fall when incentives rise and volumes soften.
Track net new orders, backlog value, closings, average selling price, gross margin, incentives, cash, debt-to-capital, land spend, buyback pace, and the July 22, 2026 earnings update.
Reduce confidence if incentives rise faster than orders, backlog weakens, spec inventory builds, cash falls while debt rises, or management buys back stock into a deteriorating demand cycle.
Investment research summary
PulteGroup is paid when households buy new homes and when the company attaches mortgage, title, and related services. The customer is buying location, floor plan, financing access, delivery certainty, and brand trust.
PHM has scale, land control, local operating knowledge, supplier purchasing power, a broad brand portfolio, and mortgage capture. The moat is real but cyclical, because competitors can discount and housing demand is sensitive to rates.
The thesis fails if affordability stays poor, incentives rise, land bought at high prices locks in lower margins, orders fall, buyer cancellations increase, or capital returns continue while the cycle turns down.
Management has balanced land investment with dividends and repurchases. Q1 2026 showed $1.3 billion invested in land acquisition and development, $360 million returned to shareholders, and a $1.5 billion authorization increase.
The long-term housing shortage supports demand, but the near-term cycle is dominated by mortgage rates, affordability, consumer confidence, labor costs, and local inventory conditions.
The verified valuation looks inexpensive on trailing earnings and free cash flow, but the margin of safety depends on whether those earnings are close to mid-cycle or still above normalized cycle levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHM price | $129.92 on July 8, 2026 | Investing.com live quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap | $24.74 billion reported, $24.75 billion verified | Robinhood quote and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 190.49 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $17.31 billion | PulteGroup FY2025 results and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $2.22 billion | PulteGroup FY2025 results and Macrotrends cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $16.83 billion | StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $10.37 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.81 billion cash and $2.45 billion total debt | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 orders and backlog | 8,034 net new orders and 10,427-home backlog worth $6.5 billion | PulteGroup Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 home sale gross margin | 24.4%, down from 27.5% in the prior-year quarter | PulteGroup Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Capital allocation | $308 million of Q1 2026 repurchases and $2.1 billion remaining authorization | PulteGroup Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical support and resistance | $127.56 volume support, $123.17 long-term support, $134.33 resistance | StockInvest technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This PHM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and can be wrong if housing demand, mortgage rates, incentives, margins, capital allocation, or market valuation changes.
