PulteGroup, Inc. research snapshot
PHM AI stock analysis currently reads PulteGroup as a stabilizing U.S. homebuilder that beat second-quarter earnings estimates, grew net new orders 6%, and raised gross margin 60 basis points sequentially, while revenue and net income still declined from a year ago. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, PHM closed at $126.47 on July 31, 2026, and market cap math using 187.45 million shares implied about $23.71 billion. The AI view is constructive on orders, margin stabilization, liquidity, and buybacks, but more cautious on affordability, elevated incentives near 10.4%, oil and land costs, and the risk that housing demand stays rate-sensitive. This page uses scenarios, not a guaranteed price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$126.47
Market cap
$23.71 billion reported, $23.71 billion verified by price times shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Stabilizing homebuilder with a Q2 earnings beat, higher orders, and improving sequential margin, but cyclical and rate-sensitive demand keeps the rating watchful
Trend status
Stabilizing near moving-average support. PHM closed at $126.47 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day and 200-day averages but below the $144.50 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PulteGroup sells new homes across multiple U.S. buyer groups and earns additional income through mortgage and financial services attachment. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on a 228,000-lot pipeline, scale purchasing, local market execution, brand portfolio, an 85% mortgage capture rate, and a low-leverage balance sheet. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Ryan Marshall has balanced land investment with buybacks and dividends, including $373 million of Q2 2026 repurchases at a $119.42 average and a raised $0.26 quarterly dividend. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue fell 7.3% and net income fell 30.5%, but Q2 2026 beat EPS consensus and home sale gross margin rose 60 basis points sequentially to 25.0%. | High |
| Valuation | At $126.47, verified valuation math gives about 12.9x TTM EPS, 1.8x book value, 15.7x free cash flow, and a 6.4% FCF yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Near-term technicals weakened to a Sell Candidate signal in late July 2026, but PHM still trades above the 200-day average near $124. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because elevated incentives, affordability, rates, and land and oil costs can compress margins even while orders grow. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts, medium for the three-year scenario model and trading setup assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. PHM can compound if orders and margins hold and buybacks continue, but the stock depends on housing-cycle timing as much as company execution. | Medium |
PHM AI stock forecast
The PHM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $126.47 price, TTM EPS of $9.80, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $160, a base value near $128, and a bearish value near $67 before dividends.
$155 to $165
More likely if mortgage rates ease, affordability improves, orders keep growing, gross margin holds at or above 25%, incentives continue to decline, land costs stay controlled, and investors give PHM a mid-teens earnings multiple as earnings inflect higher.
$122 to $134
More likely if EPS compounds at a low single-digit rate as buybacks offset flattish operating earnings, demand stays uneven, incentives remain elevated, and the market values PHM near 12x earnings.
$62 to $72
More likely if affordability worsens, mortgage rates spike or consumer confidence drops, incentives rise again, land and oil costs pressure margins, orders turn negative, or investors rerate homebuilders toward recession-level multiples near 8x earnings.
PHM AI technical analysis
PHM AI technical analysis is mixed and cautious as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed PHM closing at $126.47 on July 31, 2026 with a $126.19 to $128.90 day range and a $108.49 to $144.50 52-week range. StockInvest downgraded PHM to a Sell Candidate on July 31, 2026, listing accumulated-volume support near $124.67, moving-average resistance near $128.24 and $129.47, and higher resistance near $135.71.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $126.47 | StockAnalysis and StockInvest both showed PHM closing at $126.47 on July 31, 2026, after a 1.76% decline from the $128.74 prior close. |
| Near support | $124.67 | StockInvest identified accumulated-volume support near this level, which can matter for short-term mean reversion checks. |
| Moving-average support | $124.19 to $125.34 | The 200-day average sits near $124.19, the 50-day average near $125.17, and StockInvest listed a lower trend floor near $125.34. A close below this zone would weaken the setup. |
| Deeper support | $120.10 | StockInvest listed a second accumulated-volume support level near $120.10, a deeper housing-cycle stress reference. |
| Lower support | $108.49 | StockAnalysis listed the 52-week low at $108.49, the deepest cyclical stress reference. |
| Near resistance | $126.75 to $128.22 | StockInvest listed accumulated-volume and Fibonacci resistance in this zone. A reclaim would improve the trend-following setup. |
| Moving-average resistance | $128.24 to $129.47 | StockInvest listed short and long-term moving-average resistance lines in this zone, where the stock failed on corrections up. |
| Higher resistance | $135.71, then $144.50 | StockInvest listed accumulated-volume resistance near $135.71, and the $144.50 52-week high remains the major upside reference. |
| Moving averages | Near and above the 50-day and 200-day averages | Price sits just above the 50-day average near $125.17 and the 200-day average near $124.19, but below short-term moving-average resistance. |
| Momentum | Mixed to negative | StockInvest downgraded PHM to a Sell Candidate with a score of -3.967, citing sell signals from short and long-term moving averages and a June 29 pivot top, while a 3-month MACD buy signal and the June 10 Golden Star remain. |
| Volume | 803K versus 1.82M average | Volume fell to about 803K shares on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day average of about 1.82 million, which StockInvest reads as lower selling pressure. |
| Invalidation | Close below $124.67, then $120 | A decisive close below accumulated-volume support would shift the framework from pullback to trend damage. |
PHM AI trading strategy
The PHM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a stabilizing cyclical homebuilder with improving orders but still-elevated incentives. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, mortgage-rate data, Q3 guidance, and position sizing.
Watch for PHM to reclaim the $128 to $130 moving-average resistance zone and hold above it on above-average volume. Confirmation should include continued order growth, gross margin at or above the 25% guide, stable incentive loads, buybacks that keep reducing share count, and a lower-rate backdrop.
A failed move that closes back below $124.67 support should reduce confidence because the near-term support signal would no longer be intact.
If PHM pulls back toward $124.67 or $120 without a deterioration in orders, backlog, gross margin guidance, or balance sheet quality, the setup becomes a cyclical value review rather than a pure momentum trade.
Do not average down only because the P/E looks low. Earnings can keep falling if incentive loads rise and demand stays soft.
Track net new orders, backlog, closings, average sales price, home sale gross margin, incentives as a percent of closings, build-to-order mix, spec inventory per community, cash, debt-to-capital, land spend, buyback pace, and the Q3 2026 guidance of 7,000 to 7,400 closings, $550,000 to $560,000 ASP, and 24.5% to 25.0% gross margin, plus the October 20, 2026 earnings update.
Reduce confidence if incentives climb faster than orders, margins slip below the guide, spec inventory rebuilds, cash falls while debt rises, or land costs spike on higher oil and lumber prices.
Investment research summary
PulteGroup is paid when households buy a new home and when its mortgage, title, and related services attach to the sale. The customer is buying location, floor plan, financing access, delivery certainty, and brand trust across Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta, and John Wieland.
PHM has a 228,000-lot pipeline with 55% option control, scale purchasing, local operating knowledge, a broad brand portfolio, an 85% mortgage capture rate, and a low-leverage balance sheet. The moat is real but cyclical, because competitors can discount and housing demand is sensitive to rates.
The thesis fails if affordability stays strained, incentives stay elevated near 10.4%, land bought at higher prices locks in lower margins, oil and lumber costs push house costs higher, orders stall, or capital returns continue while the cycle turns down.
Management balanced land investment with dividends and repurchases. Q2 2026 showed $373 million of buybacks at a $119.42 average, $681 million year to date, a raised $0.26 quarterly dividend, and a disciplined shift back to build-to-order while cutting spec inventory.
The long-term U.S. housing shortage supports demand, but the near-term cycle is dominated by mortgage rates, affordability, consumer confidence, oil prices in land development, and competitive conditions in each local market.
At $126.47 the stock trades near 12.9x trailing earnings, 11.8x forward earnings, 1.8x book value, and a 6.4% FCF yield. The margin of safety depends on whether current earnings sit near mid-cycle or still above normalized cycle levels, since net income is still declining year over year.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHM price | $126.47 close on July 31, 2026 with a $108.49 to $144.50 52-week range | StockAnalysis live quote with StockInvest cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap | $23.71 billion reported, $23.71 billion verified | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 187.45 million, down 5.0% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $16.41 billion, down 7.3% | StockAnalysis financials with Macrotrends cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $1.91 billion, down 30.5% | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $9.80 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | EPS of $2.48, net income of $472 million, revenue of $3.98 billion | PulteGroup Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 home sale gross margin | 25.0%, up 60 bps sequentially, down from 27.0% a year ago | PulteGroup Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 orders and backlog | 7,536 net new orders up 6% and a 10,966-home backlog worth $6.8 billion | PulteGroup Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.4 billion in cash and a 12.3% debt-to-capital ratio at June 30, 2026 | PulteGroup Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital allocation | $373 million of Q2 2026 repurchases at a $119.42 average and $681 million year to date | PulteGroup Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | 28,500 to 29,000 closings, 24.5% to 25.0% gross margin, about $1 billion operating cash flow | PulteGroup Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | $140.62 average across 15 analysts with a Buy consensus | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical support and resistance | $124.67 support, $126.75 to $129.47 resistance zone, $135.71 higher resistance | StockInvest technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
This PHM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and can be wrong if housing demand, mortgage rates, affordability, incentives, margins, land costs, capital allocation, or market valuation changes.
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