Toll Brothers, Inc. research snapshot
TOL AI stock analysis currently reads Toll Brothers as the leading U.S. luxury homebuilder with brand pricing power, a large land pipeline, and active capital returns, offset by lower deliveries, thinner margins, and mortgage-rate sensitivity. At the July 10, 2026 close near $149.49, verified market capitalization was about $13.97 billion on roughly 93.47 million shares. FY2025 produced $10.97 billion of revenue and $1.35 billion of net income, while FY2026 Q2 showed $2.51 billion of home sales, higher orders, and raised full-year delivery guidance. This page uses scenario ranges and source-backed checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$149.49
Market cap
$13.97 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Luxury homebuilder with brand strength, solid balance sheet, and housing-cycle margin risk
Trend status
Constructive intermediate trend: price above the 50-day and 200-day averages, still below the 52-week high near $168
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury homes and communities across more than 60 U.S. markets, with attached mortgage, title, and related services for affluent buyers. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from luxury brand recognition, affluent customer franchise, land and community control, local market density, purchasing scale, and product breadth rather than network effects. | Medium-high |
| Management | Karl Mistry became CEO in March 2026 with Doug Yearley as Executive Chairman. Capital allocation remains buyback-heavy, with a $650 million FY2026 repurchase target and a raised $0.26 quarterly dividend. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose slightly to $10.97 billion while net income fell to $1.35 billion. H1 FY2026 net income was $471.5 million as deliveries and GAAP margins remained softer than the prior year, even as orders improved. | High |
| Valuation | At $149.49, verified math is about 11.3x TTM EPS near $13.24, 1.65x Q2 book value of $90.51, 11.7x free cash flow per share near $12.77, and a roughly 0.7% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | As of the July 10, 2026 quote snapshot, TOL traded above the roughly $143.6 50-day and $141.8 200-day averages, inside a $113.52 to $168.36 52-week range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include mortgage rates, luxury demand elasticity, incentives, land and joint-venture impairments, regional concentration, construction costs and tariffs, and multiple compression if housing softens further. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive operating facts and audited valuation math. Lower for price outcomes because homebuilder earnings can reset quickly when rates, cancellations, or incentives change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TOL is a high-quality cyclical luxury franchise, but this page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
TOL AI stock forecast
The TOL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $149.49 price and about $13.24 of TTM EPS. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $217, a base area near $155, and a bearish area near $72 before dividends. The range is wide because TOL combines brand strength and cash returns with housing-cycle earnings volatility.
$200 to $220
More likely if mortgage rates ease, net orders stay positive, adjusted gross margin holds near or above the mid-20s, buybacks reduce share count toward the $650 million target, and investors value TOL near a low-teens earnings multiple.
$145 to $160
More likely if EPS compounds only modestly, demand stays uneven across regions, community count grows but incentives remain elevated, and the market keeps TOL near about 11x earnings while waiting for clearer rate relief.
$65 to $80
More likely if affordability worsens, cancellations rise, land or JV impairments expand, deliveries and backlog fall further, or investors rerate luxury homebuilders toward recession-level single-digit multiples.
TOL AI technical analysis
TOL AI technical analysis is constructive but not breakout-confirmed as of the July 10, 2026 market snapshot. FMP showed $149.49 with a $149.27 to $152.85 day range, a $113.52 to $168.36 52-week range, a 50-day average near $143.62, and a 200-day average near $141.76. Chartmill and Barchart snapshots around early July also placed the stock above rising intermediate and long-term averages, while shorter averages and the $165 to $168 resistance zone still capped momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $149.49 | July 10, 2026 closing quote snapshot from FMP, consistent with Macrotrends and Yahoo close prints near the same level. |
| 50-day moving average | About $143.62 | First intermediate support zone if the stock pulls back while the broader intermediate uptrend remains intact. |
| 200-day moving average | About $141.76 | Longer-term trend support. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the constructive framework. |
| Near support | $143 to $145 | Cluster around the 50-day average and recent post-earnings consolidation. |
| Major support | $124 to $128 | Prior multi-month support zone and lower-range reference from 2026 trading history. |
| Near resistance | $155 to $158 | Recent failed rally area and short-term supply zone after the early July pullback from higher prints. |
| Major resistance | $165 to $168.36 | Upper 52-week supply zone. A decisive close above this band would strengthen the bullish technical case. |
| Momentum and volume | Neutral to mildly bullish | RSI readings near the low-to-mid 50s in early July snapshots, with volume not confirming a fresh breakout through the high. |
| Invalidation | Close below about $141 on rising volume | Would put price under the 200-day average and challenge the intermediate uptrend used in the trend-following setup. |
TOL AI trading strategy
The TOL AI trading strategy is a rules framework for a cyclical luxury homebuilder, not personalized advice. Position sizing should respect housing-news volatility, earnings gaps, mortgage-rate headlines, and the fact that TOL can move several percent on order or margin surprises.
Look for TOL to hold above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a constructive close, with improving relative strength versus homebuilder peers and no fresh breakdown in orders or backlog. Upside confirmation improves if price reclaims $155 to $158 and later challenges $165 to $168.
Invalidation is a sustained close back below the 200-day average near $141, or a failed breakout that returns under the breakout level on higher volume. Size positions so a gap through support does not force forced selling.
In a still-intact intermediate uptrend, a pullback toward $143 to $145 or the $124 to $128 major support zone can be studied if company-specific news does not show a demand collapse. Prefer entries only when cancellations, incentives, and margin commentary remain orderly.
Use a hard stop under the support cluster being tested. Skip the setup if backlog falls sharply, impairments spike, or mortgage rates reprice higher enough to invalidate the bounce thesis.
Track weekly mortgage-rate moves, monthly existing and new-home data, TOL community count, net signed contracts, backlog value, adjusted home sales gross margin, SG&A ratio, land spend, and buyback pace versus the $650 million FY2026 target.
Reduce exposure before earnings if position size is large, and do not treat AI scenarios as guaranteed targets. Recheck live quotes, filings, and personal risk limits before any trade.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Toll Brothers for designed luxury homes and community living in desirable U.S. locations. The company monetizes brand trust, product customization, and affluent buyer demand rather than pure lowest-price volume housing. Related mortgage, title, and service attach add incremental economics around the core home sale.
Brand and pricing power are the clearest advantages in the luxury tier, supported by land control, local execution, and scale purchasing. Switching costs are modest for buyers choosing among builders, and network effects are weak. The moat stays durable if Toll keeps premium locations, product quality, and capital for downturn land opportunities; it narrows if incentives erase brand pricing or land quality deteriorates.
The thesis fails if high mortgage rates and soft luxury demand force deeper incentives, if land or joint-venture impairments accelerate, if deliveries and backlog keep shrinking while costs stay high, or if a management transition weakens capital discipline. A second failure path is paying a full cycle multiple for peak or mid-cycle earnings just before a housing downturn.
Karl Mistry succeeded Doug Yearley as CEO in March 2026, with Yearley moving to Executive Chairman. Early FY2026 capital allocation still prioritizes share repurchases and a modest dividend increase, alongside community growth and land investment. Key-person risk is moderated by internal succession, but investors still need evidence that order quality and margin discipline remain intact under the new leadership structure.
U.S. housing remains a long-cycle industry shaped by mortgage rates, household formation, underbuilding in prior decades, and regional migration. Luxury demand can be more resilient than entry-level demand when equity markets and high-income employment are strong, but it is not immune to rate shock. Toll sits in the premium homebuilding layer of the value chain, with suppliers, local labor, and municipal approval processes as key bottlenecks.
At about 11.3x TTM earnings and 1.65x book value, the market prices TOL as a profitable cyclical rather than a growth compounder. That multiple can look reasonable if margins stabilize and buybacks continue, but margin of safety shrinks if current EPS is above normalized housing-cycle earnings. The audited three-scenario model shows large downside if earnings and multiples both compress.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price and market cap | $149.49 and $13.97 billion | FMP quote snapshot, cross-checked with Macrotrends close data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding used in market-cap check | About 93.47 million shares | Implied from FMP market cap and price; consistent with company book-value-per-share math | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.97 billion total revenue; $10.84 billion home sales | FMP income statement and Toll Brothers FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $1.35 billion and $13.49 | Toll Brothers FY2025 results and FMP cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $11.05 billion revenue and $1.29 billion net income | FMP TTM income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and free cash flow | About $13.24 EPS and $1.22 billion free cash flow | FMP ratios and cash-flow TTM data used in valuation checks | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 home sales and deliveries | $2.51 billion home sales and 2,491 deliveries at about $1,009,000 average price | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 net income and diluted EPS | $260.6 million and $2.72 | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 orders and backlog | 2,834 net signed contracts for $2.81 billion; backlog $6.32 billion and 5,394 homes | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 margins | 23.9% home sales gross margin and 26.2% adjusted home sales gross margin | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Liquidity and leverage | $1.11 billion cash, $8.48 billion stockholders equity, 24.7% debt-to-capital, 15.4% net debt-to-capital | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $90.51 at April 30, 2026 | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q2 buybacks of $175.4 million; FY2026 repurchase target $650 million; quarterly dividend $0.26 | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results and call commentary | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 full-year delivery guidance | 10,400 to 10,700 deliveries after the Q2 raise | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical averages and 52-week range | 50-day about $143.62, 200-day about $141.76, 52-week range $113.52 to $168.36 | FMP quote metrics and early July technical snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
This TOL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if housing demand, mortgage rates, incentives, margins, capital allocation, management execution, or market valuation changes.
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