Bullish case
$190 to $210
More likely if mortgage rates decline, net orders stay positive, incentives ease, gross margin stabilizes near or above current expectations, cash flow funds buybacks, and investors value DHI near 15x earnings.
D.R. Horton, Inc. research snapshot
DHI AI Stock Analysis
DHI AI stock analysis currently reads D.R. Horton as the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, with a scale advantage, broad land pipeline, strong cash generation, and a shareholder-return record that supports quality. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, DHI traded near $155.72 with a verified market capitalization near $44.16 billion. The offset is that fiscal 2025 and first-half fiscal 2026 showed lower margins, weaker average selling prices, and elevated sales incentives as high mortgage rates and affordability pressure limited demand. This page uses scenario ranges and source-backed checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$155.72
Market cap
$44.16 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-scale homebuilder with strong cash returns, offset by mortgage-rate and incentive-cycle risk
Trend status
Range-bound recovery, above the 200-day average but still below the 50-day average in several data snapshots
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. D.R. Horton has long public filings, current quarterly releases, a detailed investor presentation set, major third-party data coverage, and clear operating metrics for homes closed, orders, backlog, margins, cash flow, debt, and buybacks.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-repeating the consensus view that DHI is simply the best scaled homebuilder. The reverse check asks whether affordability pressure, resale supply, incentives, regional inventory, and a lower margin structure can offset scale advantages for longer than the market expects.
- ai Confidence
- High for FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, Q2 FY2026 operating metrics, share count, market cap math, valuation ratios, and broad technical readings. Medium for forecast scenarios because mortgage rates, buyer confidence, incentives, regional supply, and housing policy can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. DHI is easier to research than many cyclical companies, but actual investment certainty depends on rate direction, order quality, gross margin resilience, inventory discipline, and whether current valuation leaves enough margin of safety through a full housing cycle.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | D.R. Horton builds and sells homes across 126 U.S. markets in 36 states, with related Forestar lot development, rental, and financial services operations. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from national scale, local market density, purchasing leverage, land and lot access, operating data, sales pace discipline, and a value-oriented product mix. | Medium-high |
| Management | Paul Romanowski and Executive Chairman David Auld inherited a proven operating system, but the current cycle tests pricing discipline, land spending, buyback timing, and incentive control. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell about 7% to $34.3 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders fell about 25% to $3.6 billion. TTM revenue through March 2026 was $33.35 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $155.72, DHI traded near 14.5x TTM EPS, 1.9x book value, 12.6x free cash flow, and 1.3x sales, based on July 2026 data snapshots. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock was above the 200-day average but below the 50-day average in StockAnalysis and Investing.com snapshots, making the trend constructive but not confirmed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include high mortgage rates, buyer affordability, sales incentives, finished home inventory, Texas and Florida supply, margin compression, and cyclical multiple contraction. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited math. Lower for price outcomes because homebuilder earnings can reset quickly when rates, incentives, or cancellations change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. DHI is a high-scale cyclical quality name, but the page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
DHI AI stock forecast
DHI AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The DHI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $155.72 closing price and $10.72 TTM EPS. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $101, a base area near $157, and a bullish area near $203 before dividends. The range is wide because DHI combines scale and cash returns with housing-cycle sensitivity.
Base case
$150 to $165
More likely if EPS compounds around the low-to-mid single digits, fiscal 2026 revenue lands near company guidance, book value keeps rising, and the market keeps the stock near 13x earnings.
Bearish case
$95 to $110
More likely if affordability worsens, incentives rise, finished inventory builds, cancellations increase, average selling prices fall faster than costs, and investors compress DHI toward a 10x earnings multiple.
DHI AI technical analysis
DHI AI Technical Analysis
DHI AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $155.72 on July 7, 2026, above the 200-day moving average in StockAnalysis and Investing.com snapshots, but below the 50-day moving average cited by Investing.com. That pattern fits a recovery attempt that still needs confirmation above nearby resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $155.72 | StockAnalysis listed DHI at $155.72 at the July 7, 2026 close, with a July 8 pre-market snapshot near $154.22. |
| Near support | $150 to $154 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $150.55 and $151.74, while Investing.com listed the 200-day near $153.91. |
| Deeper support | $129 to $135 | Google Finance listed a 52-week low of $129.11. This area would matter if a housing or rate shock breaks the moving-average zone. |
| Near resistance | $160 to $163 | Recent intraday highs near $160 and Investing.com 50-day moving average readings around $162 form the first resistance band. |
| Long-term resistance | $168 to $185 | StockAnalysis listed an average analyst target near $168.23, while Google Finance listed a 52-week high of $184.54. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $150.55 to $162.58, 200-day near $151.74 to $153.91 | Provider differences mean the chart should be refreshed before trading, but DHI was not deeply below the long-term average. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.5 | StockAnalysis listed RSI at 50.51, a neutral reading rather than an overbought or oversold extreme. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 2.27 million shares | Breakout attempts above resistance should be judged against this recent volume baseline. |
| Volatility | $129.11 to $184.54 52-week range | The range shows that rates, orders, incentives, margins, and housing sentiment can quickly reset the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $150, then $129 | A decisive close below the moving-average cluster would weaken the current recovery setup. A move toward the 52-week low would imply a failed intermediate trend. |
DHI AI trading strategy
DHI AI Trading Strategy Framework
The DHI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a cyclical homebuilder. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, mortgage-rate data, filings, position sizing, and defined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Watch for DHI to hold the $150 to $154 support area and reclaim $160 to $163 on volume above the 20-day average. Confirmation improves if Q3 FY2026 results show stable order growth, controlled cancellations, and less pressure from sales incentives.
A close below $150, or a breakout failure after weaker order or margin guidance, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If DHI pulls back toward $150 without new demand or balance-sheet damage, compare the stock with book value per share, free cash flow yield, backlog, average selling price, and mortgage-rate direction before considering any reset setup.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because homebuilder stocks can gap lower when rates rise or incentives increase.
Fundamental monitor
Track net sales orders, cancellation rate, homes closed, average closing price, home sales gross margin, SG&A ratio, finished unsold inventory, Forestar lot supply, cash flow, debt to total capital, buybacks, and management commentary on incentives.
Reduce confidence if order growth depends mainly on larger incentives while gross margin, cash flow, and inventory discipline weaken.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
D.R. Horton turns land, construction capacity, local market knowledge, mortgage access, and standardized home designs into homes for buyers who value price, availability, and financing support. Customers pay because the company can deliver move-in-ready supply at national scale.
Moat
The moat is built from purchasing scale, local market density, trade relationships, lot access, construction repetition, a value-oriented brand, and the Forestar land pipeline. It weakens when resale supply, affordability pressure, or incentives remove pricing power.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if high mortgage rates last longer than expected, incentives become permanent, finished inventory rises, Texas and Florida supply stays heavy, or land values reset lower while DHI is still carrying high inventory.
Management
Paul Romanowski became CEO in October 2023 after long operating roles, while David Auld remains Executive Chairman. Investors should judge the team by sales pace discipline, land option flexibility, cash conversion, buyback timing, and refusal to chase volume at poor margins.
Industry trend
The long-term need for affordable U.S. housing supports builders with scale and land access. The near-term counterweight is that buyers are rate-sensitive, incentives are elevated, and regional supply can outpace household formation in some markets.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 14.5x TTM EPS and 1.9x book value, DHI was priced as a quality cyclical business rather than a distressed builder. Margin of safety depends on whether EPS and book value can hold through the incentive cycle.
Source-backed data
DHI Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DHI price | $155.72 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis DHI financials page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $44.16 billion, verified as $155.72 x 283.58 million shares with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 283.58 million shares outstanding, down 8.51% year over year | StockAnalysis DHI statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $34.3 billion in company release, cross-validated against StockAnalysis FY2025 revenue of $34.25 billion with 0.07% variance | D.R. Horton FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $3.6 billion net income attributable to D.R. Horton, cross-validated against StockAnalysis FY2025 net income to common of $3.585 billion with 0.21% variance | D.R. Horton FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 operating results | $7.1 billion homebuilding revenue, 19,486 homes closed, $757.9 million homebuilding pre-tax income, 10.7% homebuilding pre-tax margin, and 24,992 net sales orders | D.R. Horton Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion consolidated revenue, 86,000 to 87,500 homes closed, at least $3.0 billion operating cash flow, about $2.5 billion buybacks, and about $500 million dividends | D.R. Horton Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.918 billion cash and equivalents and about $6.6 billion total debt at March 31, 2026, with cross-source variance below 1% | D.R. Horton Q2 FY2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | financial_rigor.py output: 14.53x PE, 1.88x PB, 12.63x P/FCF, 7.92% FCF yield, 1.16% dividend yield, and 1.32x sales | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | StockAnalysis RSI 50.51, 50-day MA $150.55, 200-day MA $151.74; Investing.com 5-day MA $156.64, 50-day MA about $162, and 200-day MA about $154 | StockAnalysis and Investing.com technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $202.6, base $156.8, bearish $100.9 using $10.72 EPS, 8% / 4% / -2% growth and 15x / 13x / 10x PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 8, 2026 |
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This DHI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold D.R. Horton, Inc. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 8, 2026, and can be wrong if rates, orders, incentives, margins, inventory, housing policy, or market multiples change.