D.R. Horton, Inc. research snapshot
DHI AI stock analysis currently reads D.R. Horton as the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, with a scale advantage, a broad land pipeline, strong cash generation, and a shareholder-return record that supports quality. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, DHI traded near $143.06 with a verified market capitalization near $40.01 billion. The offset is that the company cut its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance on July 21, 2026, orders were flat, the cancellation rate rose to 20%, and the stock closed below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This page uses scenario ranges and source-backed checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$143.06
Market cap
$40.01 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Scale leader with strong cash returns, offset by a trimmed fiscal 2026 outlook and elevated incentives
Trend status
Below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July fiscal 2026 guidance cut
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | D.R. Horton builds and sells homes across 126 U.S. markets in 36 states, with related Forestar lot development, rental, and financial services operations, and about 65% of mortgage closings go to first-time buyers. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from national scale, local market density, purchasing leverage, land and lot access, operating data, sales pace discipline, and a value-oriented product mix with an average closing price near $362,000. | Medium-high |
| Management | Paul Romanowski and Executive Chairman David Auld, with CFO Bill Wheat and COO Mike Murray, kept margin over volume in Q3 FY2026, returned all operating cash flow through buybacks and dividends, and cut the full-year revenue guide when demand softened. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 diluted EPS fell 5% to $3.20 on $9.2 billion revenue. The company cut fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $32.5 billion to $33.0 billion, and TTM revenue through June 2026 was $33.35 billion, down 3.5% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $143.06, DHI traded near 13.61x TTM EPS, 1.69x book value, 12.5x free cash flow, and 1.20x sales, based on August 2026 data snapshots. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $143.06 on July 31, 2026, below both the 50-day moving average near $150.92 and the 200-day moving average near $150.16, with RSI near 40.8, so the near-term trend turned defensive. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include high mortgage rates, buyer affordability, a 20% cancellation rate, sales incentives, finished spec inventory, a trimmed revenue outlook, margin compression, and cyclical multiple contraction. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited math. Lower for price outcomes because homebuilder earnings can reset quickly when rates, incentives, orders, or cancellations change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. DHI is a high-scale cyclical quality name, but the page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
DHI AI stock forecast
The DHI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $143.06 closing price and $10.51 TTM EPS. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $93, a base area near $149, and a bullish area near $193 before dividends. The range is wide because DHI combines scale and cash returns with housing-cycle sensitivity and a trimmed fiscal 2026 outlook.
$185 to $200
More likely if mortgage rates decline, net orders improve, the cancellation rate falls, incentives ease, home sales gross margin holds near 20.5% or higher, cash flow funds buybacks, and investors value DHI near 15x earnings.
$145 to $155
More likely if EPS compounds in the low single digits, fiscal 2026 revenue lands near the updated $32.5 billion to $33.0 billion guidance, book value keeps rising, and the market keeps the stock near 13x earnings.
$88 to $100
More likely if affordability worsens, incentives rise further, cancellations climb, finished inventory builds, average selling prices fall faster than costs, fiscal 2027 guidance is cut again, and investors compress DHI toward a 10x earnings multiple.
DHI AI technical analysis
DHI AI technical analysis turned defensive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $143.06 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $150.92 and the 200-day moving average near $150.16. That pattern followed the July 21 fiscal 2026 guidance cut, and it needs a reclaim of the $150 to $152 zone before the recovery attempt can be confirmed.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $143.06 | StockAnalysis listed DHI at $143.06 at the July 31, 2026 close, with Google Finance matching the price and after-hours near $143.11. |
| Near support | $140 to $143 | The July 31, 2026 day range low was $142.76, so the $140 to $143 band is the first area where buyers stepped in. |
| Deeper support | $131.75 to $135 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis listed a 52-week low near $131.75. This area would matter if a housing or rate shock breaks the recent range. |
| Near resistance | $150 to $152 | The 50-day moving average near $150.92 and the 200-day moving average near $150.16 form a resistance cluster that the stock must reclaim. |
| Higher resistance | $160 to $165 | StockAnalysis listed an average analyst target near $164.17, which sits just above the recent breakdown zone. |
| Long-term resistance | $184 to $185 | Google Finance listed a 52-week high of $184.54 and StockAnalysis listed $184.55, the top of the year-long range. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $150.92, 200-day near $150.16 | Price below both averages in the StockAnalysis snapshot means the trend is defensive rather than merely weak. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.8 | StockAnalysis listed RSI at 40.82, a soft but not oversold reading that leaves room for further downside before an extreme. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 2.57 million shares | July 31 volume was about 2.22 million shares. Reclaim attempts above resistance should be judged against the 20-day baseline. |
| Volatility | $131.75 to $184.55 52-week range | The range and a 1.36 beta show that rates, orders, incentives, margins, and housing sentiment can quickly reset the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $131.75, reclaim needed above $150 | A decisive close below the 52-week low near $131.75 would signal a failed intermediate trend. A reclaim of the $150 to $152 moving-average zone is needed to repair the setup. |
DHI AI trading strategy
The DHI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a cyclical homebuilder. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, mortgage-rate data, filings, position sizing, and defined invalidation levels.
Watch for DHI to reclaim the $150 to $152 moving-average zone on volume above the 20-day average, with confirmation from the Q4 FY2026 results scheduled for October 29, 2026 showing stable orders, controlled cancellations, and a home sales gross margin near 20.5% or higher.
A close back below $140, or a reclaim failure after weaker order or margin guidance, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If DHI pulls back toward $135 or the 52-week low near $131.75 without new demand or balance-sheet damage, compare the stock with book value per share near $84.85, free cash flow yield near 8%, backlog, average selling price, and mortgage-rate direction before considering any reset setup.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because homebuilder stocks can gap lower when rates rise or incentives increase.
Track net sales orders, the cancellation rate (20% in Q3 FY2026), homes closed, average closing price near $362,000, home sales gross margin near 20.7%, SG&A ratio, finished unsold inventory near 7,600 homes, the 570,000-lot position, debt to total capital near 23%, buybacks, and management commentary on incentives and affordability.
Reduce confidence if order growth depends mainly on larger incentives while gross margin, cash flow, and inventory discipline weaken, or if fiscal 2027 guidance is cut again.
Investment research summary
D.R. Horton turns land, construction capacity, local market knowledge, mortgage access, and standardized home designs into affordable homes for first-time buyers. Customers pay because the company can deliver move-in-ready supply at national scale and price points roughly 30% below the U.S. new-home average.
The moat is built from purchasing scale, local market density, trade relationships, lot access, construction repetition, a value-oriented brand, and a controlled lot position of about 6.7 years. It weakens when resale supply, affordability pressure, or incentives remove pricing power.
The thesis fails if high mortgage rates last longer than expected, incentives become permanent, the cancellation rate keeps climbing, finished spec inventory builds, Texas and Florida supply stays heavy, or land values reset lower while DHI is still carrying high inventory.
Paul Romanowski is CEO with David Auld as Executive Chairman, Bill Wheat as CFO, and Mike Murray as COO. The team chose margin over volume in Q3 FY2026, returned all operating cash flow to shareholders, and cut the full-year guide when demand softened. Investors should keep judging them by sales pace discipline, land option flexibility, cash conversion, buyback timing, and incentive control.
The long-term need for affordable U.S. housing supports builders with scale and land access, and the housing bill that passed in July 2026 may help institutional build-to-rent demand. The near-term counterweight is that buyers are rate-sensitive, incentives are elevated, and home construction is running at its slowest pace since 2020.
At roughly 13.6x TTM EPS and 1.69x book value, DHI was priced as a quality cyclical business rather than a distressed builder. Margin of safety depends on whether EPS near $10.51 and book value near $84.85 can hold through the incentive cycle and the trimmed fiscal 2026 outlook.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DHI price | $143.06 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis DHI overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $40.01 billion, verified as $143.06 x 279.70 million shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 279.70 million shares outstanding, down 8.44% year over year | StockAnalysis DHI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | $9.2 billion consolidated revenue, 23,983 homes closed, $904.9 million net income attributable to D.R. Horton, $3.20 diluted EPS, 20.7% home sales gross margin, and 23,084 net sales orders with a 20% cancellation rate | D.R. Horton Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $32.5 billion to $33.0 billion consolidated revenue (cut from $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion), 83,800 to 84,300 homes closed, about 25% income tax rate, at least $3.0 billion operating cash flow, about $2.5 billion buybacks, and about $500 million dividends | D.R. Horton Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | $33.35 billion revenue, $3.05 billion net income, $10.51 EPS, 21.30% gross margin, and $3.20 billion free cash flow through June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis DHI statistics and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $34.25 billion revenue and $3.585 billion net income, consistent with the D.R. Horton FY2025 results release | StockAnalysis DHI financials cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.08 billion cash, $7.11 billion notes payable at June 30, 2026, $6.1 billion total liquidity, and a 23.0% debt to total capital ratio | D.R. Horton Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | financial_rigor.py output: 13.61x PE, 1.69x PB, 12.49x P/FCF, 8.00% FCF yield, 1.26% dividend yield, and 1.20x sales | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | StockAnalysis 50-day MA $150.92, 200-day MA $150.16, RSI 40.82, 20-day average volume 2,574,261 shares; Google Finance 52-week range $131.75 to $184.54 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average 12-month price target of $164.17 from 18 analysts; reported targets ranged from $125 at RBC to $190 at Goldman Sachs after Q3 FY2026 | StockAnalysis DHI forecast and analyst news | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $193.1, base $149.3, bearish $93.0 using $10.51 EPS, 7% / 3% / -4% growth and 15x / 13x / 10x PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 2, 2026 |
This DHI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold D.R. Horton, Inc. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026, and can be wrong if rates, orders, incentives, cancellations, margins, inventory, housing policy, or market multiples change.
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