Radian Group Inc. research snapshot
RDN AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Radian Group Inc. as a US private mortgage insurer transforming into a global multi-line specialty insurer through the $1.7 billion Inigo acquisition, which closed on February 2, 2026. The stock closed at $38.99 on July 31, 2026, up 0.46% on the day, with a market capitalization near $5.18 billion based on about 132.98 million shares outstanding, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance. The Q1 2026 report, released May 7, 2026, delivered total revenues of $466 million, up 58% year over year, with adjusted net operating EPS of $1.27, up 22%, and adjusted net operating return on equity of 14.7%, up 130 basis points. The mortgage segment kept an insurance in force of about $282 billion with a 2.51% default rate, while the new specialty segment contributed 41% of net earned premiums at a net combined ratio of 85%. Management resumed opportunistic share repurchases, buying $50 million in Q1 and $65 million more in April for $115 million year to date, and expects $200 million to $250 million of excess capital available for buybacks in 2026. In May, CEO Rick Thornberry announced he will retire in December 2026, with former PayPal executive Mike Weinbach named CEO-elect and expected to take over in August. The stock trades above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $38.43, $36.64, $35.71, and $35.09, with a 14-day RSI near 58.6, after rising about 16% over the trailing 52 weeks into its 52-week range of $31.50 to $41.05. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026. The RDN AI stock forecast is scenario-based because mortgage insurance results depend on home prices, employment, interest rates, origination volume, and loss content, and the specialty segment depends on pricing conditions in the Lloyd's market. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$38.99
Market cap
$5.18 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Diversified mortgage and specialty insurer with strong Q1 operating momentum, resumed buybacks, and a defined CEO transition, balanced against cyclical housing, employment, and interest-rate exposure plus a price near its 52-week high
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 58.6, after a sustained climb from a 52-week low near $31.50 to a 52-week high near $41.05
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Radian sells mortgage guarantee insurance to lenders, protecting them against borrower default on residential first-lien mortgages, and now operates a specialty insurance business through Inigo that writes global specialty and reinsurance lines through the Lloyd's market. Q1 2026 total revenues were $466 million, up 58% year over year, with the specialty segment contributing 41% of net earned premiums at an 85% net combined ratio. | High |
| Moat | The moat derives from regulatory capital requirements (PMIERs), brand recognition among lenders, established lender relationships, underwriting expertise, proprietary data and analytics, and industry scale. Inigo adds specialist underwriting talent and Lloyd's market access, but the specialty lines are more competitive and pricing there is softening. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has prioritized capital strength, risk-based pricing, and shareholder returns through regular dividends and opportunistic buybacks, returning about $2.3 billion via repurchases over the past 8.5 years. Rick Thornberry will retire in December 2026 and former PayPal executive Mike Weinbach is CEO-elect, so the near-term focus is an orderly handover. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Radian delivered Q1 2026 total revenues of $466 million, up 58% year over year, adjusted net operating EPS of $1.27, up 22%, adjusted net operating ROE of 14.7%, up 130 basis points, and book value per share of $35.67, up 10% year over year. FY2025 revenue was about $1.20 billion with net income near $582.6 million, and the mortgage book shows a low default rate of 2.51%. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $38.99 close, FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $5.30, book value per share of $35.67, free cash flow per share of about $2.51, and a $1.02 annual dividend, financial_rigor.py calculates 7.36x forward earnings, 1.09x book value, 15.53x free cash flow, and a 2.62% dividend yield. StockAnalysis.com reports a trailing P/E near 9.1x and a forward P/E near 7.3x. | High for math; medium for normalized earnings |
| Technical trend | The recent close of $38.99 is above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of about $39.15, $38.43, $36.64, $35.71, and $35.09, with a 14-day RSI near 58.6 and a 14-day ADX near 43.7 indicating a trending move. The 52-week range is $31.50 to $41.05, so the stock is near the upper end. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include a housing downturn, rising unemployment, declining home prices, higher interest rates compressing origination volume, adverse PMIERs changes, competition from other MI providers and the FHA, softening pricing in the specialty market, CEO transition execution risk, and refinancing of the $450 million senior note due March 2027. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial data, regulatory disclosures, and Q1 2026 results are well documented and reproducible. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot predict housing market cycles, employment trends, interest rate policy, credit losses, or the specialty pricing cycle. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | RDN is not a certainty-priced defensive compounder. A margin of safety should be based on conservative through-the-cycle earnings assumptions, not only a moderate P/E or P/B ratio. The current price fairly reflects the current cycle but may not price a severe downturn or an integration stumble. | Medium |
RDN AI stock forecast
The RDN AI stock forecast starts from the $38.99 reference price and FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $5.30. A three-year mechanical model using 10%, 6%, and -5% EPS growth with 10x, 8x, and 6x terminal multiples produced approximately $70.50, $50.50, and $27.30 per share. These are scenario illustrations, not targets. They show that the current price builds in a moderate base-case expectation but could reprice sharply if the housing or specialty cycle turns.
About $62 to $78 before dividends
More likely if housing demand remains resilient, employment stays strong, home prices continue appreciating, mortgage origination volume improves, Inigo scales profitably despite softening pricing, the CEO transition goes smoothly, and the market assigns a normalized double-digit earnings multiple.
About $46 to $55 before dividends
More likely if mortgage origination volume moderates, persistency remains stable, the loss ratio stays in a low range, the specialty segment keeps a combined ratio near 85% to 90%, buybacks continue, and the stock trades at a P/E of 8x to 9x on FY2026 consensus EPS.
About $24 to $30 before dividends
More likely if unemployment rises significantly, home prices decline, claim frequency increases, loss ratios rise above historical norms, new insurance written contracts, specialty pricing deteriorates, the CEO transition causes drift, refinancing the March 2027 note becomes costly, or the market applies a recession multiple of 6x on depressed earnings.
RDN AI technical analysis
RDN AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 NYSE close of $38.99. The stock is above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of about $38.43, $36.64, $35.71, and $35.09, with a 14-day RSI near 58.6, a 14-day ADX near 43.7, and a 52-week range of $31.50 to $41.05. These static inputs can become stale, so verify a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.99 as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote. This is the price anchor for the valuation and technical analysis. |
| Near support | $38.40 area | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 20-day moving average near $38.43 on July 31, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $35.00 to $36.70 | The 50-day moving average near $36.64 and the 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $35.71 and $35.09 form a support cluster on further pullbacks. |
| Resistance reference | $41.05 near 52-week high | The 52-week high near $41.05 from the recent run is the main overhead resistance. A breakout above it with volume would extend the uptrend. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $38.43, 50-day $36.64, 200-day $35.09 | Price at $38.99 is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish short-term trend. The 5-day average near $39.15 sits slightly above price. |
| Momentum | Positive but elevated | 14-day RSI near 58.6 is strong but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 43.7 confirms a trending move rather than a range. |
| Volume | About 1.3 million average shares | Barchart listed the 20-day average volume near 1.31 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.31 million on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Moderate; 52-week range about $9.55 | The $31.50 to $41.05 52-week range and a 14-day historical volatility near 26.8% reflect moderate realized volatility. RDN can become more volatile on housing data, Fed policy, earnings, or CEO transition news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $36.60 with fundamental deterioration | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $36.64 would weaken the short-term uptrend. This is a monitoring condition, not a personalized stop. |
RDN AI trading strategy
The RDN AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with mortgage origination data, home price indices, employment reports, interest rate trends, PMIERs capital requirements, loss ratios, specialty pricing conditions, the CEO transition, and shareholder return disclosures.
Enter in the direction of a confirmed breakout above the 52-week high near $41.05 on above-average volume, supported by favorable housing data, stable employment, a clean Q2 2026 report, and an orderly CEO transition.
If the breakout fails and price returns below the recent consolidation area, reassess. A failed breakout with deteriorating housing data is a stronger caution signal.
If RDN pulls back toward the 20-day moving average near $38.43 or the $35.00 to $36.70 support cluster, assess whether the housing and credit fundamentals still support the current insurance in force and premium outlook before considering a position.
Housing-related stocks can trend in one direction for extended periods. Do not assume mean reversion is automatic, especially if mortgage rates, employment, home prices, or specialty pricing are shifting.
Track mortgage origination volume, home price appreciation, unemployment rate, interest rate trends, Radian insurance in force, premium yield, loss ratio, expense ratio, PMIERs capital ratio, book value per share, dividend, buyback activity, Inigo specialty premium and combined ratio, and CEO transition milestones.
Use position sizing that recognizes RDN can reprice quickly on housing data surprises, regulatory changes, macroeconomic shocks, CEO transition news, or an unexpected Inigo integration issue.
Investment research summary
Lenders pay Radian to insure the default risk on low-down-payment residential mortgages, and Radian now also runs a specialty insurance and reinsurance business through Inigo. The revenue model generates recurring premiums from a growing insurance in force plus specialty premiums, with profitability driven by underwriting discipline, loss content, persistency, investment income, and capital deployment.
Radian benefits from regulatory capital barriers (PMIERs), established lender relationships, brand recognition, risk-pricing expertise, proprietary data and analytics, and industry scale that make it difficult for new competitors to enter. Inigo adds specialist underwriting skill and Lloyd's market access, but its lines are more competitive and pricing is softening.
The thesis fails if unemployment rises sharply and home prices decline, causing elevated claim frequency and severity. It also fails if regulatory capital requirements tighten significantly, if the FHA expands its market share, if interest rate policy crushes origination volume for a sustained period, if specialty pricing deteriorates faster than Inigo can adjust, if the CEO transition causes execution drift, or if Radian misprices risk in a competitive market.
Management has demonstrated underwriting discipline through cycles, maintained strong capital ratios well above PMIERs requirements, and returned excess capital through dividends and share repurchases. The defined CEO transition to Mike Weinbach in August 2026 is a key near-term execution item, and the outgoing team has managed through both the 2008 crisis and the COVID disruption.
Private mortgage insurance benefits from a structural shift away from FHA high-LTV lending, a large addressable market of first-time homebuyers, and the secular need for housing. The Inigo acquisition expands Radian into a large global specialty insurance market, but affordability constraints from higher interest rates, limited housing supply, and a softening specialty pricing environment create headwinds.
At $38.99, the stock trades at about 9.1x trailing earnings, 7.3x forward earnings, and 1.09x book value, which is moderate for a mortgage insurer in the current cycle. Margin of safety depends on whether normalized through-the-cycle earnings can support the multiple and whether the balance sheet can absorb a housing downturn without material book value erosion while the specialty integration matures.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDN price | $38.99 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 0.46% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.18 billion, computed as $38.99 x 132.98 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenues | $466.337 million, up 58% year over year, including $402.528 million of net premiums earned and $69.698 million of net investment income | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | Net income from continuing operations of $129.466 million, or $0.93 per diluted share; total net income including discontinued operations of $124.093 million, or $0.89 per diluted share | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted operating results | Adjusted net operating EPS of $1.27, up 22% year over year; adjusted net operating ROE of 14.7%, up 130 basis points | Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $35.67 as of March 31, 2026, up 10% year over year, cross-checked as $4.809 billion equity divided by 134.845 million shares | Q1 2026 earnings call and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Mortgage insurance in force | About $282 billion, up 3% year over year, with new insurance written of $13.5 billion, up 42%, persistency of 81.3%, and a portfolio default rate of 2.51% | Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Specialty segment (Inigo) | Net premiums earned of $164 million in two months, 41% of Q1 net earned premiums, net combined ratio of 85%, net expense ratio of 33% | Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, March 31, 2026 | Total assets of $10.652 billion, total investments of $7.040 billion, cash of $55.445 million, restricted cash of $32.534 million, short-term borrowings of $494.730 million, long-term borrowings of $773.946 million, and stockholders equity of $4.809 billion | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $1.20 billion, down 0.76% from about $1.21 billion in 2024, with FY2025 net income of about $582.6 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Dividend of $1.02 per share annualized, $0.255 quarterly, 2.62% yield, payout ratio near 25%; buyback yield near 9%; shareholder yield near 11.6%; $2.3 billion returned via buybacks over 8.5 years and over $3 billion including dividends | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Buyback and capital plans | Q1 buybacks of $50 million (1.5 million shares), $65 million more in April for $115 million year to date (3.3 million shares), $200 million to $250 million of expected 2026 excess capital, holding company liquidity of $391 million, leverage ratio of 20.2%, and expected dividends of at least $600 million from Radian Guaranty in 2026 | Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Inigo acquisition | Closed February 2, 2026 for about $1.7 billion; Inigo is a Lloyd's specialty insurer founded in 2020 with about $164 million of net earned premiums in the first two months of ownership and an 85% net combined ratio in Q1 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, Q1 2026 earnings call, and Investor Day transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Rick Thornberry to retire in December 2026; Mike Weinbach, former PayPal executive, named CEO-elect and expected to take over in August 2026, with inducement grants under NYSE Rule 303A.08 | Radian press releases and Investor Day transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Trailing P/E near 9.1x, forward P/E near 7.3x, 1.09x book value, 15.6x free cash flow, 2.62% dividend yield, PEG near 0.95 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $45.00 across 5 analysts, low $39, median $46, high $48; recent updates include RBC Capital $47 on July 14, Barclays $39 on July 7, KBW to $46 on June 25, BofA $48 on June 5, and Roth MKM $45 on June 3 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 14, 2026 |
| Consensus financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate of $1.92 billion, up 60.29% on Inigo consolidation, with adjusted EPS of $5.30, up 26.14%; FY2027 revenue of $2.08 billion with adjusted EPS of $5.49 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 14, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.00 million shares short, 4.51% of shares outstanding, 3.79 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $39.15, 20-day SMA near $38.43, 50-day SMA near $36.64, 100-day SMA near $35.71, 200-day SMA near $35.09, 14-day RSI near 58.6, 14-day ADX near 43.7, 14-day historical volatility near 26.8%, 52-week range $31.50 to $41.05 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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