Bullish case
$56 to $70
More likely if the housing market remains resilient, mortgage origination volume recovers, credit losses stay below historical averages, and the market assigns a PE multiple near 12x on growing earnings.
Enact Holdings Inc. research snapshot
ACT AI Stock Analysis
ACT AI stock analysis currently reads Enact Holdings as a well-capitalized private mortgage insurer with a strong track record of profitability, high free cash flow conversion, and a modest valuation. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $44.75, market capitalization was about $6.25 billion, and the main question is whether the housing cycle, credit conditions, and competitive landscape support continued earnings power in a $1.24 billion revenue franchise that earned $676 million in net income over the last twelve months. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$44.75
Market cap
$6.25 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Solid business at a reasonable price
Trend status
Uptrend near 52-week highs, moderate valuation support
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Enact Holdings was spun off from Genworth in 2021 and has moderate analyst coverage as a mid-cap mortgage insurer. Public filings, industry trade data, and peer comparisons are available, but the short public trading history limits long-term market-based evidence.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is underestimating housing-cycle tail risk because recent loss experience has been benign. This page separates the strong current profitability from the inherently cyclical nature of mortgage insurance and asks whether the market is correctly pricing the next downturn.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Enact is a well-run insurer in an oligopolistic industry with strong current returns, but the investment outcome depends on housing market conditions, credit performance through the cycle, and whether the market re-rates mortgage insurers during stress.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Enact writes residential mortgage guaranty insurance for US lenders, earning premiums for bearing default risk on low-down-payment loans. The business generates high margins, strong FCF, and double-digit ROE. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from state licensing, long-term lender relationships, underwriting expertise, capital requirements that limit new entrants, and the oligopolistic structure of the private MI industry. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has run the business conservatively through the 2022-2023 housing correction, maintained underwriting discipline, returned capital via dividends and buybacks, and managed the Genworth separation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $1.24 billion, net income of $676 million, profit margin near 55%, and levered FCF of $591 million. Return on equity was about 12%. Balance sheet is conservatively leveraged. | High |
| Valuation | The stock traded near 9.7x TTM earnings, 1.17x book value, and offered a 1.94% dividend yield with a 9.45% FCF yield. Valuation appears reasonable for the earnings power and cycle risk. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ACT traded near the upper end of its 52-week range ($33.94 to $46.34). The stock has trended higher over the past year but momentum indicators varied at the cutoff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are housing market downturn, rising delinquencies, interest rate sensitivity affecting origination volume, competitive pricing pressure, regulatory changes, and credit losses from recession. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for current financials, market cap math, and industry structure. Lower confidence for predicting housing cycle timing or credit loss scenarios. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Enact offers a solid business at a fair valuation, but the cyclical nature of mortgage insurance and dependence on housing market conditions add uncertainty. | Medium |
ACT AI stock forecast
ACT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ACT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $44.75 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained housing demand, stable credit conditions, and continued premium growth. The base case assumes moderate earnings growth with normal cycle conditions. The bearish case assumes recession, rising delinquencies, and multiple compression.
Base case
$44 to $52
More likely if earnings grow at a low-to-mid single digit pace, dividends and buybacks continue, and the stock trades near a 10x earnings multiple consistent with mid-cycle insurance valuations.
Bearish case
$27 to $35
More likely if a housing downturn drives elevated claims, new business volume slows, and the market re-rates mortgage insurers toward a 7x multiple reflecting a more cautious credit outlook.
ACT AI technical analysis
ACT AI Technical Analysis
ACT AI technical analysis starts from the $44.75 July 10 close used for this July 12 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock near the upper end of its 52-week range with support at the $42 to $43 level. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.75 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $42 to $43 | Support planning zone around the 20-day moving average area reported by public technical sources. |
| Secondary support | $38 to $40 | A broader support zone near the 50-day moving average. A sustained break below this area would weaken the near-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $46 to $47 | The 52-week high area around $46.34. A breakout above this level with volume would signal continued upward momentum. |
| 52-week range | $33.94 to $46.34 | The stock traded near the top of its 52-week range, reflecting the recent positive trend. |
| Volume | About 250,000 to 300,000 shares | Average daily volume is moderate for a mid-cap stock. Breakouts or breakdowns on significantly higher volume carry more weight. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.46, below market | ACT has below-market volatility, consistent with the insurance sector. Position sizing should account for the stock moving less than the broad market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $42, then $38 | A close below $42 weakens the near-term setup. A break below the $38 to $40 zone would challenge the medium-term trend. |
ACT AI trading strategy
ACT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ACT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business fundamentals, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for ACT to hold above $42 support and potentially break the $46 to $47 resistance zone with improving volume. A breakout above the 52-week high would confirm momentum.
A close below $42 or failure to hold above the 20-day moving average should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
Income-oriented setup
ACT offers a 1.94% dividend yield with a conservative payout ratio. For dividend-focused investors, monitor the dividend coverage ratio, FCF generation, and management commentary on capital return plans.
A dividend cut or suspension would be a material negative signal. Monitor quarterly earnings for credit quality trends and management tone.
Fundamental monitor
Track quarterly earnings, new insurance written (NIW), delinquency rates, loss ratio, book value per share, and management guidance on the housing market and credit conditions.
Lower the rating if combined ratio deteriorates, credit losses rise faster than expected, or management signals a cautious outlook on housing.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Enact sells mortgage guaranty insurance to US lenders, protecting them against homeowner default on low-down-payment loans. The company earns premiums upfront and pays claims only when borrowers default and foreclosure losses exceed a threshold.
Moat
The US private mortgage insurance industry is an oligopoly with 4 to 5 major players. Barriers to entry include state licensing, capital adequacy requirements, lender relationship inertia, and the scale needed to achieve adequate geographic diversification.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if a severe housing downturn causes claims to overwhelm premium income, if competition erodes pricing, if government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) change MI requirements, or if a recession leads to book value impairment.
Management
Enact management has demonstrated conservative underwriting, strong capital management, and effective navigation of the Genworth separation. Capital allocation includes dividends, share buybacks, and maintaining adequate reserves.
Industry trend
Mortgage insurance demand is tied to US housing formation, first-time homebuyer activity, and low-down-payment lending. The long-term trend is supported by demographics, but the business is inherently cyclical with housing and credit cycles.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 9.7x TTM earnings and 1.17x book value, ACT trades at a reasonable valuation that discounts some cyclical risk. A fair setup requires stable housing conditions and disciplined capital management to support the dividend and book value growth.
Source-backed data
ACT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACT price | $44.75 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.25 billion, verified as $44.75 x approximately 139.6 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.24 billion | Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $676 million | Yahoo Finance earnings | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $4.62 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | $591 million | Yahoo Finance cash flow | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents (mrq) | $549 million | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 13.94% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 12.08% | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 9.69x TTM PE, 1.17x PB, 5.04x PS, 10.58x P/FCF, 1.94% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $33.94 to $46.34 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This ACT AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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