Essent Group Ltd. research snapshot
ESNT AI stock analysis currently reads Essent Group as a well-capitalized private mortgage insurer focused on US residential mortgage credit risk. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the reference quote was $66.99 with a verified market capitalization near $6.17 billion. ESNT generates industry-leading margins through disciplined underwriting, scalable technology, and a low-cost operating model. The constructive case rests on a 53.64% net profit margin, a 12.09% ROE, $818.57 million in free cash flow, a 2.09% dividend yield, a 7.71% buyback yield, and a low debt-to-equity ratio of about 0.09. The caution is that mortgage insurance is inherently tied to US housing health, interest rates, unemployment, home prices, and the credit performance of insured loans, and the stock trades at only 1.08x book value. This ESNT AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$66.99
Market cap
$6.17 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-margin mortgage insurer with consistent ROE, strong capital returns, and low leverage, but housing cycle exposure and a near-book valuation keep the margin of safety moderate
Trend status
Uptrend intact with the stock near the top of its 52-week range, above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, after gains toward the $68.62 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Essent provides private mortgage insurance (PMI) to US residential mortgage lenders, protecting them against borrower default. The company earns premiums on insured loans and manages risk through underwriting criteria, captive reinsurance, and diversified geographic exposure. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulatory approval as a qualified PMI provider, long-term lender relationships, underwriting data and analytics, scale in risk management, and barriers to entry from state insurance regulation and capital requirements. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mark Casale has led Essent since its 2008 founding, building a technology-driven underwriting platform and maintaining disciplined capital management. The team has demonstrated consistent risk selection, conservative reserving, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation with roughly 10% of shares repurchased during 2025. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was approximately $1.26 billion with net income near $690 million. TTM revenue near $1.28 billion and TTM net income near $686 million with EPS of $7.03. Q1 2026 net income was $171.8 million or $1.82 per share, with 12% ROE, 11% book value growth, and capital returns exceeding $200 million in buybacks year to date. | High |
| Valuation | At $66.99, the stock trades at about 9.5x TTM EPS of $7.03, 1.08x book value, a 7.5x P/FCF ratio, and a 2.09% dividend yield. These multiples reflect the market pricing in a normalized housing cycle rather than peak credit conditions. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ESNT is in an uptrend near the upper end of its 52-week band of $55.34 to $68.62, above both the 50-day moving average near $62.08 and the 200-day moving average near $61.73, with RSI near 55.9 and average volume near 514K shares per day. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are a US housing downturn that increases delinquencies and loss severity, interest rate increases that reduce refinance and purchase volume, adverse selection from lender retention practices, regulatory changes to the MI industry, and potential credit deterioration in insured vintages. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for verified financial data points. Medium for the forecast because mortgage insurance earnings depend on macroeconomic housing variables and credit cycles that carry inherent forecasting uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ESNT is a well-managed, high-margin mortgage insurer with strong capital returns, but the stock already prices a solid operating story and remains sensitive to housing cycle shifts and changes in the credit environment. | Medium |
ESNT AI stock forecast
The ESNT AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $66.99 quote and TTM EPS of $7.03. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $131.00, a base value near $92.10, and a bearish value near $59.70 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not a reliable prediction of Essent Group stock price.
$125 to $140
More likely if EPS compounds near 10% annually through continued premium growth, benign credit conditions, steady new insurance written, efficient expense management, aggressive buybacks continue, and investors value ESNT near 14x earnings.
$85 to $100
More likely if EPS grows about 6% annually with moderate housing activity, normalized loss ratios, steady premium yields, and the market values ESNT near 11x earnings with book value compounding.
$55 to $65
More likely if a housing downturn increases delinquency rates and loss severity, new insurance volume contracts, interest rates rise further pressuring affordability, or investors value ESNT closer to 8x earnings near book value.
ESNT AI technical analysis
ESNT AI technical analysis starts from the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and a $66.99 reference quote during the August 3 morning session. The stock trades near the upper end of its 52-week range of $55.34 to $68.62, above both the 50-day moving average near $62.08 and the 200-day moving average near $61.73. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages, RSI, options flow, and volume should be checked before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $66.99 | Reference market quote during the August 3, 2026 morning session, verified during the August 3, 2026 workflow. |
| Near support | $62 to $63 | Zone around the reported 50-day moving average near $62.08. Holding this band would keep the near-term trend intact. |
| Secondary support | $60 to $62 | Area around the reported 200-day moving average near $61.73. A sustained hold here would keep the intermediate uptrend intact. |
| Major support | $55 to $57 | Area around the reported 52-week low near $55.34. A test of this zone would suggest a more significant housing-cycle repricing. |
| Near resistance | $68 to $69 | Area around the 52-week high near $68.62. A close above it with volume would strengthen the breakout case. |
| Secondary resistance | $72 to $75 | Upper valuation band that would imply a re-rating based on sustained premium growth and benign credit conditions, aligned with the upper range of analyst price targets. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day and 200-day | The 50-day SMA was near $62.08 and the 200-day SMA near $61.73 as of the August 2026 cutoff, with price trading above both. |
| Momentum | Neutral to slightly positive short term | RSI near 55.9 on recent reads, with price advancing toward the upper end of the 52-week range. |
| Volume | About 500K to 550K average daily shares | The reported 20-day average volume was near 514K shares. A move above the $68 to $69 zone would carry more weight with above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Moderate insurance-cycle volatility | ESNT can move on housing data (starts, permits, existing home sales), interest rates, unemployment claims, and quarterly credit performance metrics. |
| Invalidation | Close below $60 | A decisive close below the 200-day zone near $61.73 would weaken the trend-following setup and shift attention toward the 52-week low and risk control. |
ESNT AI trading strategy
The ESNT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring ESNT. It does not tell any individual investor to buy, sell, or hold Essent Group stock.
Watch for ESNT to reclaim and hold $68 to $69 with volume above the recent average near 514K shares while premium yield, NIW (new insurance written), loss ratio, book value growth, and credit metrics remain stable or improving.
A failed reclaim, weak volume, or a close back below $60 to $62 should invalidate the short-term setup.
If ESNT pulls back toward $58 to $62 while premium growth, expense ratio, book value, dividend coverage, and credit performance remain solid, compare the price with book value, dividend yield, and normalized earnings power.
Do not treat a lower price as value if the decline is driven by rising delinquencies, higher loss ratios, worsening housing data, or a capital-return reduction.
Track Essent premium yield, NIW, persistency, loss ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio, book value per share, ROE, dividend, buyback pace, PMIERs sufficiency, and housing market indicators.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not matched by credit quality, premium growth, capital strength, and consistent book value compounding.
Investment research summary
Customers (mortgage lenders) pay Essent to insure the credit risk on residential mortgage loans, enabling lenders to meet regulatory capital requirements and reduce risk on their balance sheets. Essent earns premiums over the life of each loan and manages risk through underwriting, reinsurance, and geographic diversification.
ESNT has regulatory qualification as a PMI provider, long-standing lender relationships, proprietary underwriting analytics, low-cost servicing infrastructure, and capital strength. MI providers benefit from regulatory capital requirements that make their product essential for low-down-payment lenders, but moats narrow in a commodity pricing environment.
The thesis fails if a housing recession drives delinquencies and loss severity above modeled expectations, interest rates compress new mortgage volume for an extended period, lenders retain more low-risk loans and leave adverse selection for MI, or capital requirements tighten unexpectedly.
Management is judged on underwriting discipline through the cycle, capital allocation between buybacks and dividends, investment in technology and efficiency, conservative reserving, and the ability to grow book value per share consistently without taking excessive tail risk.
Private mortgage insurance benefits from structural demand due to GSE capital requirements that push low-down-payment loans to MI coverage. The industry is cyclical with housing and credit markets, but long-term demand is supported by demographic-driven household formation and the need for affordable homeownership options.
At 9.5x TTM earnings and 1.08x book value, ESNT prices in a normalized housing and credit environment. Margin of safety depends on loss ratios staying manageable through the cycle and book value continuing to compound through both premium earnings and investment returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESNT price | $66.99 | StockAnalysis.com quote powered by S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $6.17 billion by price times shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap check using StockAnalysis shares outstanding | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 92.15 million, down about 7.71% year over year from buybacks | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $55.34 to $68.62 | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM total revenue | Approximately $1.28 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and company filings | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $686.3 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $7.03 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $818.57 million, $8.88 per share | StockAnalysis.com cash flow | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Approximately $61.20 based on total book value of about $5.70 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py check | August 3, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 53.64% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on equity | 12.09% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward annual dividend | $1.40, yield approximately 2.09% at $66.99 | StockAnalysis.com dividends and financial_rigor.py check | August 3, 2026 |
| Total cash and total debt | $751.30 million cash and $495.64 million total debt | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 0.09 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus target | $68.71 average (range $62.00 to $74.00), consensus Buy from 7 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast page (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
This ESNT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market prices, and your own risk constraints.
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