MGIC Investment Corporation research snapshot
MTG AI stock analysis currently views MGIC Investment Corporation as the largest US private mortgage insurer, selling mortgage guarantee insurance that protects lenders against borrower default on low-down-payment residential loans. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the stock traded at $30.69 on StockAnalysis.com at the market open, up 2.16% from the $30.04 July 31 close, with a market capitalization near $6.30 billion, computed as $30.69 times 205.12 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, and Yahoo Finance. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, delivered net income of $182.1 million or $0.86 per diluted share, adjusted net operating income of $183.7 million or $0.87 per share versus the $0.76 consensus estimate, a 14.5% return on equity, $18 billion of new insurance written up 8.5% year over year, and capital returns equal to 124% of net income. The board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.17 per share from $0.15, a 13% increase and the sixth consecutive annual increase, with an August 5, 2026 ex-dividend date. The AI score of 70/100 reflects stable credit trends, a disciplined capital return program, a low payout ratio, and a reasonable valuation around 9.6x trailing earnings, while the bear case centers on low mortgage origination volume, affordability constraints, interest rate exposure, and a housing or employment downturn that could raise claim frequency. This page is for informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$30.69 on StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market open, up 2.16% from the $30.04 July 31, 2026 close; Barchart showed $30.63 and Yahoo Finance showed $30.45 at the July 30 close
Market cap
$6.30 billion estimated market capitalization
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Largest US private mortgage insurer with a 14.5% Q2 2026 ROE, a sixth consecutive dividend increase, aggressive share buybacks, and a Q2 earnings beat, balanced against low mortgage origination volume, interest rate sensitivity, and credit cycle risk
Trend status
Uptrend above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 72 on Barchart and 67 on StockAnalysis.com, approaching overbought
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MGIC sells mortgage guarantee insurance to lenders, protecting them against borrower default on residential first-lien mortgages. Revenue comes from recurring premiums on insurance in force, with earnings driven by new insurance written, persistency, premium yield, and incurred losses. The model generates high incremental returns on capital, with Q2 2026 ROE of 14.5% and TTM ROE near 13.9%. | High |
| Moat | The moat derives from regulatory capital requirements (PMIERs), brand recognition among lenders, established lender relationships, underwriting expertise, risk-based pricing models, and industry scale. New entrants face high capital barriers and lengthy lender approval processes. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has prioritized capital strength, risk-based pricing, and shareholder returns, raising the dividend for a sixth consecutive year, completing an additional $750 million buyback authorization in April 2026, and returning capital equal to 124% of net income in Q2 2026. The leadership team has managed through the 2008 crisis and the COVID disruption. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM net income is $707.85 million on $1.20 billion of revenue, with TTM EPS of $3.20. FY2025 net income was $738.35 million on $1.214 billion of revenue, and the five-year record shows consistent profitability from $634.98 million in 2021 to $738.35 million in 2025. TTM free cash flow is $706.48 million. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $30.69 reference price, TTM EPS of $3.20, book value per share of $24.27, free cash flow per share of $3.44, and a $0.68 annual dividend, financial_rigor.py calculates 9.59x earnings, 1.26x book value, 8.92x free cash flow, and a 2.22% dividend yield. StockAnalysis.com reports 9.61x trailing PE and 9.40x forward PE. | High for math; medium for normalized earnings |
| Technical trend | The stock is above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 72.11 on Barchart and 66.99 on StockAnalysis.com, ADX near 35 confirming trend strength, and a 52-week high of $31.89 overhead. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include low mortgage origination volume from high rates and affordability constraints, rising unemployment, declining home prices, interest rate sensitivity, adverse PMIERs capital rule changes, competition from FHA and other MI providers, and tail risk from a severe recession causing elevated claims. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial data and regulatory disclosures are well documented and reproducible across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, Yahoo Finance, and SEC filings. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot predict housing market cycles, employment trends, interest rate policy, or the timing of credit losses. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MTG is a cyclical capital return story, not a certainty-priced defensive compounder. A margin of safety should be based on conservative through-the-cycle earnings assumptions, not only a moderate P/E or P/B ratio. The current price reflects the improved profitability and buyback story but may not fully price a downturn. | Medium |
MTG AI stock forecast
The MTG AI stock forecast starts from the $30.69 reference price and TTM EPS of $3.20. A three-year scenario model using EPS growth of 5%, 2%, and -8% with exit multiples of 11x, 9.5x, and 6.5x produced approximately $40.70, $32.30, and $16.20 per share. These are scenario illustrations, not targets, and they show that the current price builds in a reasonable base case while repricing risk is significant if the housing or credit cycle turns.
About $36 to $46 before dividends
More likely if mortgage origination volume stabilizes or improves as rates decline, employment stays strong, home prices hold, loss ratios remain low, buybacks continue at the current pace, and the market keeps a double-digit earnings multiple on sustained 14% ROE.
About $28 to $35 before dividends
More likely if mortgage origination volume stays subdued, persistency remains stable, the loss ratio stays within the historical low range, capital returns continue, and the stock trades at roughly 9x to 11x normalized earnings.
About $14 to $22 before dividends
More likely if unemployment rises significantly, home prices decline, claim frequency increases, loss ratios rise above 50%, new insurance written contracts sharply, PMIERs requirements tighten, or the market applies a recession multiple of 5x to 7x on depressed earnings.
MTG AI technical analysis
MTG AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff is bullish but extended. The stock traded at $30.69 at the market open, up 2.16% from the $30.04 July 31 close, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of approximately $30.47, $29.24, $27.47, $27.12, and $27.39 on Barchart, matching the 50-day and 200-day readings near $27.38 and $27.37 on StockAnalysis.com. The 14-day RSI sits near 72.11 on Barchart and 66.99 on StockAnalysis.com, and 14-day ADX near 35 confirms trend strength, but the stock is approaching overbought with the 52-week high of $31.89 overhead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.69 at the August 3, 2026 market open | StockAnalysis.com real-time reference; Barchart showed $30.63. Market cap math uses 205.12 million shares outstanding. |
| Support reference | $29.33 to $29.69 | Barchart placed first support near $29.69 and second support near $29.33 as of August 3, 2026, with the 20-day moving average near $29.24 forming a natural pullback zone. |
| Resistance reference | $30.57 to $31.45 | Barchart listed resistance near $30.57, $31.09, and $31.45, with the 52-week high of $31.89 as the major overhead level. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $30.47; 20-day $29.24; 50-day $27.47; 100-day $27.12; 200-day $27.39 | Barchart reported these averages on August 3, 2026; StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day near $27.38 and 200-day near $27.37. Price is above all of them, confirming an uptrend. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 72 on Barchart and 67 on StockAnalysis.com | Momentum is strong but approaching overbought. A sustained RSI above 70 with a failure to clear $31.89 could signal a near-term pullback risk. |
| Volume | Average 20-day volume near 1.84 million shares | Barchart reported average volume near 1.84 million. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout above $31.89 or breakdown below support. |
| Volatility | Moderate; 14-day historic volatility near 24%, implied volatility near 35% | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 24.43% and implied volatility near 35.34%, with a 14-day ATR of about $0.73 or 2.38%. |
| Invalidation | Break below $28.81 to $29.24 with fundamental deterioration | Barchart placed third support near $28.81 and the 20-day average near $29.24. A sustained close below this zone with deteriorating housing data is a monitoring condition, not a personalized stop. |
MTG AI trading strategy
The MTG AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with mortgage origination data, home price indices, employment reports, interest rate trends, PMIERs capital requirements, loss ratios, and shareholder return disclosures.
Enter in the direction of a confirmed breakout above the $31.45 to $31.89 resistance zone on above-average volume, supported by stabilizing mortgage origination, constructive commentary from MGIC or industry data, and an RSI that stays below extreme overbought levels.
If the breakout fails and price returns below $31.45, reassess. A failed breakout with deteriorating housing data is a stronger caution signal.
If MTG pulls back toward the $29.24 to $29.69 support zone or the 20-day moving average, assess whether housing and credit fundamentals still support the insurance in force and premium outlook before considering a position.
Housing-related financials can trend in one direction for extended periods. Do not assume mean reversion is automatic, especially if mortgage rates, employment, or home prices are shifting.
Track mortgage origination volume, home price appreciation, unemployment rate, interest rate trends, MGIC insurance in force, new insurance written, premium yield, loss ratio, expense ratio, PMIERs capital ratio, book value per share, dividend, and buyback activity.
Use position sizing that recognizes MTG can reprice quickly on housing data surprises, regulatory changes, or macroeconomic shocks that affect the credit cycle.
Investment research summary
Lenders pay MGIC to insure the default risk on low-down-payment residential mortgages. The revenue model generates recurring premiums from a growing insurance in force, with profitability driven by underwriting discipline, loss content, persistency, and investment income on retained premiums, and Q2 2026 delivered a 14.5% return on equity.
MGIC benefits from regulatory capital barriers (PMIERs), established lender relationships, brand recognition, risk-pricing expertise, underwriting infrastructure, and industry scale that make it difficult for new competitors to enter. The moat is structural but does not eliminate cyclical earnings risk.
The thesis fails if unemployment rises sharply and home prices decline, causing elevated claim frequency and severity. It also fails if regulatory capital requirements tighten significantly, if the FHA expands its market share, if sustained high rates crush origination volume and new insurance written, or if MGIC misprices risk in a competitive market.
Management demonstrated underwriting discipline in Q2 2026, returned capital equal to 124% of net income, raised the dividend for a sixth consecutive year, and has used buybacks to reduce the share count by 11.53% over the past year. The leadership team has deep mortgage insurance experience through both the 2008 crisis and the COVID disruption.
Private mortgage insurance benefits from a structural shift away from FHA high-LTV lending and a large addressable market of first-time homebuyers, but affordability constraints from higher interest rates, limited housing supply, and demographic shifts create headwinds for origination volume that affect new insurance written, which rose only 8.5% in Q2 2026.
At $30.69, the stock trades at approximately 9.6x trailing earnings and 1.26x book value, which is reasonable for a mortgage insurer generating a 14% ROE. Margin of safety depends on whether normalized through-the-cycle earnings can support the multiple and whether the balance sheet can absorb a housing downturn without material book value erosion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE price reference | $30.69 from StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market open; Barchart showed $30.63; Yahoo Finance showed $30.45 at the July 30 close. | StockAnalysis.com MTG | August 3, 2026 |
| Estimated shares outstanding | Approximately 205.12 million shares, down 11.53% year over year. | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Estimated market capitalization | $30.69 x 205.12M shares = approximately $6.30 billion. | Calculated from price and shares | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM earnings and EPS | TTM net income of $707.85 million on $1.20 billion revenue, TTM EPS of $3.20, cross-validated with Yahoo Finance EPS of $3.15. | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income of $182.1 million or $0.86 per diluted share, adjusted net operating income of $183.7 million or $0.87 per share versus the $0.76 consensus, ROE of 14.5%, and new insurance written of $18 billion up 8.5%. | MGIC Q2 2026 earnings release via StockAnalysis news | July 30, 2026 |
| Dividend rate and yield | Annual dividend of $0.68 (four quarters of $0.17 after the July 2026 increase), approximately 2.21% yield at the reference price; ex-dividend date August 5, 2026. | MGIC investor news | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 9.59x TTM EPS, 1.26x book value, 8.92x free cash flow, and 2.22% dividend yield, calculated using financial_rigor.py; StockAnalysis.com reports 9.61x trailing PE and 9.40x forward PE. | Verified via financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 5-day average $30.47, 20-day $29.24, 50-day $27.47, 100-day $27.12, and 200-day $27.39 on Barchart; 14-day RSI near 72.11; 14-day ADX near 35.34. | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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