MGIC Investment Corporation research snapshot
MTG AI stock analysis currently views MGIC Investment Corporation as the largest US private mortgage insurer, providing mortgage guarantee insurance that protects lenders against borrower default on residential loans with low down payments. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest NYSE close from Yahoo Finance was $28.14, with an estimated market capitalization of approximately $7.74 billion based on approximately 275 million shares outstanding. The AI score of 62/100 reflects MGICs strong capital position under PMIERs, consistent underwriting profitability, a growing insurance in force, shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, and a favorable housing market backdrop. The MTG AI stock forecast is scenario-based because mortgage insurance performance depends on home prices, employment, interest rates, origination volume, and loss content, all of which can shift with the economic cycle. This page is for informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$28.14 NYSE close as of latest available data on July 12, 2026
Market cap
$7.74 billion estimated market capitalization
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Leading private mortgage insurer with strong capital ratios, consistent profitability, and a housing market supported by employment and home prices, balanced against origination volume sensitivity, interest rate exposure, and tail-risk exposure to recession and unemployment
Trend status
Slightly above the 50-day moving average with low recent volatility, reflecting a stable but range-bound technical setup
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MGIC sells mortgage guarantee insurance to lenders, protecting them against borrower default on residential first-lien mortgages. Revenue comes from recurring premiums on insurance in force, with earnings influenced by new insurance written, persistency, premium yields, and incurred losses. The model generates high incremental returns on capital in a favorable housing cycle. | High |
| Moat | The moat derives from regulatory capital requirements (PMIERs), brand recognition among lenders, established lender relationships, underwriting expertise, risk-based pricing models, and industry scale. New entrants face high capital barriers and lengthy lender approval processes. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has prioritized capital strength, risk-based pricing, and shareholder returns through regular dividends and opportunistic buybacks. The long-tenured leadership team has managed through the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating underwriting discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | MGIC has delivered consistent net income in recent years, with net premiums earned of approximately $1.1 to $1.2 billion annually, combined ratios well below 100%, and strong return on equity of approximately 14%. The balance sheet carries significant net cash and investment securities. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $28.14 recent close, estimated FY2025 EPS of $2.80, book value per share of $20.00, free cash flow per share of $2.50, and $0.44 annual dividend, financial_rigor.py calculates 10.05x earnings, 1.41x book value, 11.26x free cash flow, and a 1.56% dividend yield. These are moderate multiples for a mortgage insurer. | High for math; medium for normalized earnings |
| Technical trend | The recent close of $28.14 is near the 50-day moving average. The 3-month trading range was approximately $28.00 to $28.40, indicating low volatility and tight range-bound trading with a slight upward bias. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include a housing downturn, rising unemployment, declining home prices, interest rate sensitivity affecting origination volume, adverse PMIERs capital rule changes, increased competition from other MI providers and the FHA, and tail-risk from a severe recession causing elevated claims. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial data and regulatory disclosures are well documented and reproducible. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot predict housing market cycles, employment trends, interest rate policy, or the timing of credit losses. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MTG is not a certainty-priced defensive compounder. A margin of safety should be based on conservative through-the-cycle earnings assumptions, not only a moderate P/E or P/B ratio. The current price fairly reflects the current cycle but may not price a severe downturn. | Medium |
MTG AI stock forecast
The MTG AI stock forecast starts from the $28.14 recent reference price and estimated FY2025 EPS of $2.80. A three-year mechanical model using 10%, 5%, and -5% EPS growth with 12x, 10x, and 7x terminal multiples produced approximately $44.70, $32.40, and $16.80 per share. These are scenario illustrations, not targets. They show that the current price builds in a moderate base-case expectation but could reprice sharply if the housing cycle turns.
About $38 to $48 before dividends
More likely if housing demand remains resilient, employment stays strong, home prices continue appreciating, interest rates stabilize or decline supporting origination volume, loss ratios remain low, and the market assigns a normalized double-digit earnings multiple.
About $28 to $36 before dividends
More likely if mortgage origination volume moderates, persistency remains stable, the loss ratio remains within historical low-to-mid range, and the stock trades at a P/E of 9x to 12x normalized earnings.
About $14 to $22 before dividends
More likely if unemployment rises significantly, home prices decline, claim frequency increases, loss ratios rise above 50%, new insurance written contracts sharply, PMIERs requirements tighten, or the market applies a recession multiple of 6x to 8x on depressed earnings.
MTG AI technical analysis
MTG AI technical analysis uses the latest NYSE reference available near the July 12, 2026 cutoff: recent close of $28.14. The 50-day moving average was approximately $28.11, the 20-day average was approximately $28.14, and the 3-month trading range was $27.98 to $28.39, reflecting very low volatility. These static inputs can become stale, so verify a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $28.14 as of July 12, 2026 | Yahoo Finance NYSE reference. This is the price anchor for the valuation and technical analysis. |
| Support reference | 3-month low near $27.98 | The recent trading range has been very tight. A break below this level would need volume confirmation and context from housing and mortgage data. |
| Resistance reference | 3-month high near $28.39 | This is a narrow resistance level. A breakout above it with volume would suggest the range-bound pattern may be resolving upward. |
| Moving averages | 50-day ~$28.11; 20-day ~$28.14 | Price is essentially at both moving averages, indicating no clear short-term directional signal from this metric alone. |
| Momentum | Near-neutral | The tight range and low daily price movement suggest no strong momentum in either direction. Use this with volume and housing market data. |
| Volume | Check on live chart | Confirm volume patterns on a live trading platform. Low volatility periods often precede expansion moves. |
| Volatility | Low; 3-month range of about $0.41 | The narrow $27.98 to $28.39 range reflects low realized volatility. MTG can become more volatile on housing data, Fed policy, or earnings releases. |
| Invalidation | Break below $27.50 with fundamental deterioration | This is a monitoring condition, not a personalized stop. Confirm with updated housing and employment data before taking action. |
MTG AI trading strategy
The MTG AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with mortgage origination data, home price indices, employment reports, interest rate trends, PMIERs capital requirements, loss ratios, and shareholder return disclosures.
Enter in the direction of a confirmed breakout from the tight $27.98 to $28.39 range on above-average volume, supported by favorable housing data, stable employment, and constructive commentary from MGIC or industry data.
If the breakout fails and price returns into the range, reassess. A failed breakout with deteriorating housing data is a stronger caution signal.
If MTG pulls back toward the low end of the range or below, assess whether the housing and credit fundamentals still support the current insurance in force and premium outlook before considering a position.
Housing-related stocks can trend in one direction for extended periods. Do not assume mean reversion is automatic, especially if mortgage rates, employment, or home prices are shifting.
Track mortgage origination volume, home price appreciation, unemployment rate, interest rate trends, MGIC insurance in force, premium yield, loss ratio, expense ratio, PMIERs capital ratio, book value per share, dividend, and buyback activity.
Use position sizing that recognizes MTG can reprice quickly on housing data surprises, regulatory changes, or macroeconomic shocks that affect the credit cycle.
Investment research summary
Lenders pay MGIC to insure the default risk on low-down-payment residential mortgages. The revenue model generates recurring premiums from a growing insurance in force, with profitability driven by underwriting discipline, loss content, persistency, and investment income on retained premiums.
MGIC benefits from regulatory capital barriers (PMIERs), established lender relationships, brand recognition, risk-pricing expertise, underwriting infrastructure, and industry scale that make it difficult for new competitors to enter and compete effectively. The moat is structural but does not eliminate cyclical earnings risk.
The thesis fails if unemployment rises sharply and home prices decline, causing elevated claim frequency and severity. It also fails if regulatory capital requirements tighten significantly, if the FHA expands its market share, if interest rate policy crushes origination volume for a sustained period, or if MGIC misprices risk in a competitive market.
Management has demonstrated underwriting discipline through cycles, maintained strong capital ratios well above PMIERs requirements, and returned excess capital through dividends and share repurchases. The leadership team has deep mortgage insurance experience and has managed through both the 2008 crisis and the COVID disruption.
Private mortgage insurance benefits from a structural shift away from FHA high-LTV lending, a large addressable market of first-time homebuyers, and the secular need for housing. However, affordability constraints from higher interest rates, limited housing supply, and demographic shifts create headwinds for origination volume that affect new insurance written.
At $28.14, the stock trades at approximately 10x estimated EPS and 1.4x book value, which is moderate for a mortgage insurer in the current cycle. Margin of safety depends on whether normalized through-the-cycle earnings can support the current multiple and whether the balance sheet can absorb a housing downturn without material book value erosion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE price reference | $28.14 from Yahoo Finance. | Yahoo Finance MTG | July 12, 2026 |
| Estimated shares outstanding | Approximately 275 million shares. | Based on available financial data | July 12, 2026 |
| Estimated market capitalization | $28.14 x 275M shares = approximately $7.74 billion. | Calculated from price and shares | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend rate and yield | $0.44 per share annual dividend, approximately 1.56% yield at the reference price. | MGIC investor relations | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 10.05x estimated EPS, 1.41x book value, 11.26x free cash flow, calculated using financial_rigor.py. | Verified via financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average $28.11, 3-month range $27.98 to $28.39. | Calculated from Yahoo Finance price history | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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