NVR, Inc. research snapshot
NVR AI stock analysis reads NVR, Inc. as a high-return, asset-light homebuilder whose land option model, low leverage, and aggressive buyback record remain intact, while the current housing cycle is visibly compressing revenue, gross margin, and earnings. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NVR closed at $6,147.05 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market value near $16.46 billion, down about 19.5% over 52 weeks. The Q2 2026 report, released July 23, 2026, showed new orders up 9% to 5,885 units and backlog up 9% to 10,998 units, but diluted EPS fell 23% to $83.96 and gross margin dropped to 19.2% on higher lot costs, affordability-driven pricing pressure, and $21.7 million of land deposit impairments. The stock now trades at about 15.9x trailing EPS and 13.4x free cash flow, below the analyst consensus average target of $6,782. The base case is not a certain NVR AI stock forecast; it depends on whether order momentum, backlog conversion, margins, lot costs, and buybacks can stabilize a falling earnings path.
Current price
$6,147.05
Market cap
$16.46 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-quality asset-light homebuilder facing a deep cycle, with a cheaper multiple and improving orders but weak margins and a broken technical setup
Trend status
Downtrend below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with weak momentum (RSI near 41)
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NVR sells and builds homes under Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes, while its mortgage banking arm captures financing around closings. Q2 2026 settlements averaged $450,700 per home. | High |
| Moat | The moat is not a consumer network effect. It comes from land option discipline, local operating scale, fast inventory turns, scarce execution know-how, brand recognition, and a long buyback culture. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Eugene Bredow runs day-to-day operations while Executive Chairman Paul Saville provides strategic direction. H1 2026 repurchases of about $829 million and a new $750 million authorization confirm continued buyback discipline. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $10.32 billion official, and H1 2026 revenue fell 16% to $4.21 billion with diluted EPS down 26% to $151.38, as gross margin compressed to 19.2% in Q2 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $6,147.05, verified math shows 15.87x TTM EPS, 4.85x book value, 13.37x free cash flow per share, a 7.48% FCF yield, and no dividend. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 41 and ADX near 11, so the technical picture is weak rather than recovering. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated. Mortgage rates, affordability, buyer incentives, lot costs, land deposit impairments, lower settlements, and buyback timing can all change the return profile. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because housing-cycle timing and valuation multiples are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low at this price. NVR quality is clear, but the margin of safety depends on orders, margins, and cash conversion stabilizing before the stock retests the $5,501 low. | Medium-low |
NVR AI stock forecast
The NVR AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $6,147.05 close, $387.30 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $9,757.70 in a bull case, $6,771.40 in a base case, and $3,320.60 in a bear case before any future buyback effect. Analysts at 6 firms average a 12-month target of $6,782 with a Hold consensus, a median of $7,000, a low of $5,664, and a high of $7,446.
$9,300 to $10,200
More likely if new orders keep rising after the Q2 2026 gain of 9%, cancellation rates stay near 15%, gross margin stabilizes from the 19.2% level, lot costs ease, H2 settlements recover, and the market pays about 20x earnings for NVR quality and buyback discipline.
$6,400 to $7,100
More likely if EPS holds near the $360 to $390 area implied by the FY2026 consensus of $361.10, Q2 2026 margin weakness proves cyclical rather than structural, affordability pressure fades slowly, and investors hold a mid-teens multiple near the $6,782 average analyst target.
$3,100 to $3,500
More likely if mortgage rates rise, incentives and lot costs keep compressing gross margin, land deposit impairments continue, settlements fall again, and the market rerates homebuilders toward 10x, consistent with Seaport Sell near $5,664 and the $5,501.01 52-week low.
NVR AI technical analysis
NVR AI technical analysis is bearish to neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $6,147.05 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $6,428, its 50-day near $6,386, its 100-day near $6,402, and well below its 200-day near $6,941. Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 41.37 and 14-day ADX near 11.20 with negative directional pressure, so momentum is weak. The 52-week low near $5,501.01 is the key downside reference.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $6,147.05 | StockAnalysis.com close at the July 31, 2026 market close, used for valuation and market-cap math at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate resistance | $6,320 to $6,430 | The Barchart 5-day moving average near $6,320.09 and 20-day moving average near $6,428.21 sit just overhead as the first ceiling. |
| Major resistance | $6,385 to $6,941 | The 50-day near $6,385.86, 100-day near $6,402.12, and 200-day near $6,941.49 form a wide supply zone that needs a clean close above to repair the trend. |
| Immediate support | $6,111 to $6,235 | This zone reflects the July 31 daily range of $6,111.21 to $6,235.00 and recent intraday buying interest. |
| Psychological support | $5,900 to $6,000 | A round-number band between current price and the 52-week low where mean-reversion interest could appear if orders and backlog stay firm. |
| 52-week low | $5,501.01 | The 52-week low is the major downside reference. A decisive close below it would signal a new leg lower. |
| 50-day moving average | $6,385.86 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day near $6,385.86, now overhead resistance. |
| 200-day moving average | $6,941.49 | The 200-day near $6,941.49 is well above price. A return above it would mark a meaningful long-term trend repair. |
| Momentum | Weak, RSI near 41, ADX near 11 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 41.37 and ADX near 11.20 with negative directional index, so there is no confirmed trend in either direction. |
| Volume | About 31,000 average daily volume | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 31,160 shares. NVR is a high-priced, lower-volume stock, so breakout and breakdown signals need volume context. |
| Volatility | High dollar movement per share | Barchart showed 14-day average true range near $216.70, about 3.5% of price, so position sizing must tolerate several hundred dollars of swing around earnings and housing data. |
| Invalidation | Close below $5,501, recovery needs $6,430 then $6,941 | A close below the $5,501.01 52-week low would weaken the setup further. A durable recovery needs a close back above the 20-day near $6,430, then the 200-day near $6,941. |
NVR AI trading strategy
The NVR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q3 2026 earnings, new orders, backlog conversion, gross margin, mortgage rates, land deposit impairments, free cash flow, and buyback pace.
With price below all major moving averages, a trend-following long setup only becomes valid if NVR closes back above the 20-day near $6,430 with above-average volume and then holds the $6,385 to $6,402 zone. Until that reclaim, the default bias is defensive.
Treat a failed reclaim of the 20-day followed by a close below the $6,111 to $6,235 daily-range support as a warning that the downtrend is continuing.
If NVR pulls back toward the $5,900 to $6,000 zone or the $5,501.01 52-week low without a cut to order trends, backlog, or free cash flow expectations, compare the reset price with the base scenario and buyback capacity before acting.
Do not average down only because NVR has a strong history. Require evidence that gross margin, lot costs, cancellation rates, and order conversion are stabilizing.
Track Q3 2026 earnings, new orders, cancellation rate, settlements, backlog units, backlog dollars, average settlement price, gross margin, contract land deposit impairments, mortgage rates, free cash flow, and share repurchases.
Lower the rating if EPS keeps falling while NVR trades above a mid-teens earnings multiple, or if buybacks absorb cash during a deeper housing downturn before margins stabilize.
Investment research summary
Customers pay NVR because they want completed homes in desirable local markets and often need an integrated path from sale to settlement. NVR earns spread by controlling construction, communities, and mortgage capture while avoiding heavy owned-land exposure.
NVR benefits from option-based land control, local scale, operating discipline, supplier and subcontractor relationships, brand awareness through Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes, and a capital allocation culture built around repurchases.
The thesis fails if affordability stays weak, incentives rise, lot costs keep compressing gross margin from the 19.2% Q2 2026 level, land option impairments continue, backlog converts slowly, or buybacks occur before a larger cycle reset.
Eugene Bredow became President and CEO in 2022 after running NVR Mortgage, while Paul Saville remains Executive Chairman. The governance structure separates strategy oversight from execution, and H1 2026 repurchases of about $829 million show continued buyback discipline.
NVR sits in a long-duration U.S. housing need, but demand is cyclical because mortgage rates, affordability, labor, local permitting, and buyer confidence can move orders and margins sharply. Seaport turned bearish on builders over job growth while Berkshire disclosure supported the sector.
At about 15.87x TTM EPS, 13.37x free cash flow, and a 7.48% FCF yield, the multiple is well below the prior cycle peak, but margin of safety still depends on whether orders, margins, and cash conversion stabilize before the stock retests the $5,501 low.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVR price reference | $6,147.05 at the July 31, 2026 close, with a market cap near $16.46 billion | StockAnalysis.com NVR overview and market-cap page | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $16.46 billion calculated market cap, verified from $6,147.05 x 2,678,153 shares with 0.02% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and NVR Q2 2026 earnings release share count | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 shares outstanding | 2,678,153 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026, down from 2,883,215 a year earlier | NVR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $2.33 billion revenue, $236.5 million net income, and $83.96 diluted EPS, down 23% year over year | NVR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operational data | New orders up 9% to 5,885 units, settlements down 8% to 5,058 units, cancellation rate 15% versus 17%, gross margin 19.2% versus 21.5%, and backlog of 10,998 units worth $4.99 billion as of June 30, 2026 | NVR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | $4.21 billion revenue down 16%, $434.8 million net income down 31%, and $151.38 diluted EPS down 26% | NVR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | H1 2026 buybacks of about $829.2 million for roughly 120,550 shares, including $357.8 million in Q2 2026, plus a new $750 million authorization announced May 8, 2026 | NVR Q2 2026 earnings release and share repurchase authorization release | July 23, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $1.09 billion cash on the homebuilding balance sheet, senior notes of $908.2 million, and a net cash position near $43 million, with total shareholders equity of $3.39 billion as of June 30, 2026 | NVR Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.32 billion official consolidated revenue, cross-checked against StockAnalysis annual revenue near $10.44 billion | NVR FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis revenue page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.3398 billion in the 2025 Form 10-K, cross-validated to rounded $1.34 billion in the FY2025 release | NVR 2025 Form 10-K and FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue cross-check | $9.63 billion from StockAnalysis versus $9.65 billion derived as FY2025 revenue of $10.44 billion minus H1 2025 revenue of $5.00 billion plus H1 2026 revenue of $4.21 billion, a 0.10% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.87x TTM EPS, 4.85x book value, 31.54% ROE, 13.37x free cash flow per share, 7.48% FCF yield, and 10.87x EV/EBITDA | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis and Q2 2026 inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $6,782 across 6 analysts, median $7,000, low $5,664, and high $7,446 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BofA Buy $7,200 to $7,000, UBS Hold $7,700 to $7,400, BTIG Buy $8,096 to $7,446 on July 24, 2026, Truist Hold $6,400 on July 29, 2026, Zelman upgraded to Outperform on July 8, 2026, and Seaport Sell near $5,664 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $9.21 billion with EPS $361.10, FY2027 revenue $9.81 billion with EPS $411.62, and a 3-year EPS growth forecast near 4.0% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 136,067 shares short, 5.08% of shares outstanding, and 5.10 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $6,428.21, 50-day SMA near $6,385.86, 100-day near $6,402.12, 200-day SMA near $6,941.49, 14-day RSI near 41.37, and 14-day ADX near 11.20 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This NVR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, rates, housing demand, margins, liquidity, or market multiples change.
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