Northrop Grumman Corporation research snapshot
NOC AI stock analysis currently reads Northrop Grumman as a scaled defense technology company with durable demand in bombers, space, missile defense, sensors, command systems, and mission-critical government programs. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, NOC traded near $549.04 with a verified market value near $78.02 billion. The bull case depends on a $95.6 billion Q1 2026 backlog, B-21 and Sentinel progress, 2026 revenue guidance near $43.5 billion to $44.0 billion, and steady free cash flow. The caution is that fixed-price development contracts, B-21 cost history, budget timing, leverage, and valuation can still pressure returns.
Current price
$549.04
Market cap
$78.02 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality defense prime with strong backlog visibility and meaningful program execution risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound improving, with price near the 50-day moving average and still below several longer moving-average references
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Northrop Grumman sells aircraft, space systems, missile defense, sensors, command networks, and mission systems into long-cycle national security markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from classified program knowledge, prime-contractor incumbency, security clearances, engineering depth, installed platforms, and high switching costs in defense missions. | High |
| Management | Chair, CEO, and President Kathy Warden has kept the portfolio focused on advanced defense, space, and deterrence programs while navigating B-21 and Sentinel execution risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $41.954 billion, net earnings were $4.182 billion, free cash flow was about $3.307 billion, and Q1 2026 sales rose 4% to $9.9 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $549.04, verified math shows about 17.21x TTM EPS, 4.68x book value, 23.79x free cash flow per share, and a 1.68% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | NOC has rebounded from recent weakness, but provider data differs on the 50-day and 200-day averages, so the technical read is improving rather than cleanly bullish. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Demand is visible, but fixed-price contracts, program charges, budget timing, supplier capacity, debt, and classified-program opacity all matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because returns depend on execution, federal policy, rates, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. The company quality is clear, but the margin of safety depends on clean B-21 and Sentinel execution plus cash conversion. | Medium |
NOC AI stock forecast
The NOC AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $549.04 stock price, $31.90 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $843.90 in a bull case, $664.70 in a base case, and $407.60 in a bear case before dividends.
$810 to $850
More likely if B-21 and Sentinel milestones improve confidence, Q2 and Q3 results confirm mid-single-digit sales growth, backlog stays near record levels, free cash flow remains above $3 billion, and defense primes keep premium earnings multiples.
$640 to $680
More likely if EPS compounds near 5% annually, backlog converts at normal margins, fixed-price charges stay contained, and the market values NOC around a high-teens earnings multiple.
$390 to $420
More likely if B-21, Sentinel, space, or other development programs create new cost charges, budget timing slows awards, debt limits buybacks, or defense primes rerate toward lower industrial multiples.
NOC AI technical analysis
NOC AI technical analysis is mixed but improving as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $549.04 close on July 7, 2026. Investing.com placed the 50-day moving average near $522.12 and the 200-day near $534.51, while Barchart placed the 50-day near $545.34 and the 200-day near $612.58. That split means short-term momentum has recovered, but longer-trend confirmation still needs a break above the higher moving-average band.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $549.04 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 7, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $522 to $535 | This zone combines Investing.com moving-average references with the lower part of the recent rebound area. |
| Tactical support | $545 to $549 | Barchart showed a 50-day moving average near $545.34, close to the current price, making this a near-term trend check. |
| Near resistance | $580 to $613 | The first resistance band comes from the rebound range and Barchart 200-day moving average near $612.58. |
| 50-day moving average | $522 to $545 | Provider differences make the 50-day reference a band. A sustained close above the high end would improve the technical read. |
| 200-day moving average | $535 to $613 | Provider differences are wide, so the 200-day reference is better treated as a confirmation zone rather than one number. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.08 on 14-day Barchart data | Momentum is positive but not extreme. The setup still needs confirmation above the high-$500s. |
| Volume | About 957,240 50-day average volume on Barchart | A breakout attempt should be compared with normal volume rather than a low-volume rebound. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $14.43 | Position sizing should allow for normal double-digit daily price movement around earnings, budget headlines, and program updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $522, then below $500 | A close below the lower moving-average band would weaken the rebound. A move below $500 would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
NOC AI trading strategy
The NOC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings, B-21 and Sentinel updates, backlog conversion, free cash flow, debt, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Watch for NOC to hold above the $545 area and then close above the $580 to $613 resistance band with volume above its 50-day average while earnings confirm sales growth and stable margins.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $522 as a warning because the setup would lose support from both momentum and moving averages.
If NOC pulls back toward $522 to $535 without a cut to guidance, backlog quality, or free cash flow expectations, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because defense demand is strong. Require evidence that fixed-price program risk is contained and cash conversion remains healthy.
Track Q2 2026 earnings, B-21 production capacity, Sentinel timing, Space Systems growth, Mission Systems margin, total backlog near $95.6 billion, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, debt, buybacks, and dividend policy.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while NOC trades above a high-teens earnings multiple or if new program charges reduce confidence in free cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Northrop Grumman because national security missions require stealth aircraft, nuclear deterrence systems, space payloads, sensors, communications, command networks, and advanced defense systems that must work under strict performance and security standards.
NOC benefits from prime-contractor status, classified program experience, defense clearances, long qualification cycles, installed platforms, systems integration, and customer trust. The moat is strongest where technical failure is unacceptable.
The thesis fails if B-21 or Sentinel costs rise again, fixed-price contracts absorb margin, space programs lose funding, supply chain constraints delay delivery, or budget and procurement changes slow awards.
Kathy Warden has focused Northrop Grumman on advanced defense, space, deterrence, and mission systems. The management test is converting demand and backlog into cash while avoiding repeated development-program charges.
NOC sits in long-duration defense trends: strategic deterrence, stealth aircraft, space security, missile defense, autonomous systems, resilient communications, and allied modernization. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At about 17.21x TTM EPS and 23.79x free cash flow per share, NOC is not priced like a distressed contractor. Margin of safety improves if program execution stays clean or price resets closer to the lower support zone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOC quote reference | $549.04 closing price as of July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis NOC overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $78.02 billion calculated market cap, verified from $549.04 x 142.1 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and CompaniesMarketCap share count | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 142.1 million current shares, cross-checked against 141,997,194 year-end shares in the 2025 Form 10-K | CompaniesMarketCap and Northrop Grumman 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net earnings | $41.954 billion sales and $4.182 billion net earnings, cross-validated with StockAnalysis and AlphaQuery | Northrop Grumman 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.307 billion, calculated from $4.757 billion operating cash flow less $1.450 billion capital expenditures | Northrop Grumman 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and backlog | $9.9 billion Q1 sales, $9.8 billion net awards, and $96 billion backlog in the Q1 2026 release | Northrop Grumman Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.09 billion cash and equivalents at March 31, 2026, with long-term debt near $14.41 billion | SEC Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.21x TTM EPS, 4.68x book value, 23.79x free cash flow per share, and 1.68% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | Investing.com 50-day MA $522.12 and 200-day MA $534.51; Barchart 50-day MA $545.34, 200-day MA $612.58, and 14-day RSI 56.08 | Investing.com and Barchart technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This NOC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, rates, budgets, contract costs, or market multiples change.
