Northrop Grumman Corporation research snapshot
NOC AI stock analysis reads Northrop Grumman as a scaled aerospace and defense prime whose demand is visible through a record $104.7 billion total backlog at June 30, 2026. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NOC traded near $542.48 with a verified market value near $77.06 billion. The July 21, 2026 Q2 release showed sales up 5% to $10.876 billion, diluted EPS of $7.68, $20.0 billion of net awards, and raised 2026 guidance for sales to $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion. The bullish case rests on B-21, Sentinel, Space Systems, and Mission Systems momentum, while the caution is that Sentinel, SiAW, and GEM 63XL cost adjustments, fixed-price contract risk, and a long-term chart that is still below its 200-day moving average keep the setup balanced.
Current price
$542.48
Market cap
$77.06 billion verified market cap
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality defense prime with a record $104.7 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance, offset by a still-bearish long-term price trend
Trend status
Short-term recovery underway above the 50-day moving average, while the price still sits below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Northrop Grumman sells stealth aircraft, missile defense, space systems, sensors, command networks, and mission systems into long-cycle national security markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from classified program knowledge, prime-contractor incumbency, security clearances, engineering depth, installed platforms, and very high switching costs in defense missions. | High |
| Management | Chair, CEO, and President Kathy Warden has kept the portfolio focused on advanced defense, space, and deterrence programs while managing B-21 and Sentinel execution and a $68 million SiAW and $91 million GEM 63XL charge in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $41.954 billion, net earnings were $4.182 billion, and free cash flow was about $3.307 billion. Q2 2026 sales rose 5% to $10.876 billion and guidance was raised to $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $542.48, verified math shows about 17.23x TTM EPS, 4.33x book value, 21.25x free cash flow per share, and a 1.82% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | NOC has recovered above its 50-day moving average near $535.55, but the price remains below the 100-day near $588.50 and the 200-day near $606.35, so the long-term trend is still not confirmed as bullish. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Demand is visible, but fixed-price contracts, program charges on Sentinel, SiAW, and GEM 63XL, budget timing, supplier capacity, debt, and classified-program opacity all matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because data coverage is deep and Q2 2026 results are fresh. Forecast confidence is medium because returns depend on execution, federal policy, rates, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. The company quality is clear and guidance was raised, but the margin of safety depends on clean B-21 and Sentinel execution plus cash conversion. | Medium |
NOC AI stock forecast
The NOC AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $542.48 stock price, $31.48 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $765 in a bull case, $609 in a base case, and $431 in a bear case before dividends.
$735 to $795
More likely if B-21 and Sentinel milestones improve confidence, Q3 and Q4 results confirm mid-single-digit sales growth, backlog stays above $100 billion, adjusted free cash flow lands near the top of the $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion range, and defense primes keep premium earnings multiples.
$585 to $635
More likely if EPS compounds near low-single-digit rates, backlog converts at normal margins, program charges stay contained, and the market values NOC around an 18x earnings multiple near the analyst consensus target of $643.62.
$410 to $455
More likely if Sentinel, Space Systems, or other development programs create new cost charges, budget timing slows awards, debt limits buybacks, or defense primes rerate toward lower industrial multiples with an adverse scenario near 15x.
NOC AI technical analysis
NOC AI technical analysis is improving on the short term but remains challenged on the long term as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $542.48 close on July 31, 2026. Barchart placed the 50-day moving average near $535.55 and the 200-day near $606.35, with the 100-day near $588.50. The price has cleared the 50-day line, but a sustained close above the $588 to $606 band is still needed to confirm the longer trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $542.48 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 31, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $530 to $536 | This zone combines the 50-day moving average near $535.55 with the lower part of the recent rebound area. |
| Tactical support | $480 to $500 | The 52-week low near $479.02 from StockAnalysis defines the major downside anchor below the current trend zone. |
| Near resistance | $588 to $606 | The first resistance band comes from the 100-day moving average near $588.50 and the 200-day moving average near $606.35. |
| 50-day moving average | $535.55 | Barchart placed the 50-day near $535.55. Holding above this line supports the short-term recovery case. |
| 200-day moving average | $606.35 | Barchart placed the 200-day near $606.35. A close above this level would be the main longer-trend confirmation signal. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 54.06 | Momentum is positive but not extreme. The setup still needs confirmation above the high-$580s. |
| Volume | 50-day average volume near 1.03 million on Barchart | A breakout attempt should be compared with normal volume rather than a low-volume rebound. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $16.34 and 14-day historic volatility near 25.05% | Position sizing should allow for normal double-digit daily price movement around earnings, budget headlines, and program updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $530, then below $500 | A close below the $530 support zone would weaken the rebound. A move below $500 would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
NOC AI trading strategy
The NOC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q3 2026 earnings, B-21 and Sentinel updates, backlog conversion, adjusted free cash flow, debt, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Watch for NOC to hold above the $535 area and then close above the $588 to $606 resistance band with volume above its 50-day average while earnings confirm raised guidance of $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion in sales and stable margins.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $530 as a warning because the setup would lose support from both momentum and the 50-day moving average.
If NOC pulls back toward $530 to $536 without a cut to guidance, backlog quality, or free cash flow expectations, compare the reset price with the base scenario and the 1.82% dividend yield.
Do not average down only because defense demand is strong. Require evidence that Sentinel, SiAW, and GEM 63XL cost risk is contained and cash conversion remains healthy.
Track Q3 2026 earnings, B-21 production capacity, Sentinel timing, Space Systems margin near low 10%, Mission Systems margin near 15%, total backlog near $104.7 billion, adjusted free cash flow, debt, buybacks, and dividend policy.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while NOC trades above a high-teens earnings multiple or if new program charges reduce confidence in the $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion adjusted free cash flow guidance.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Northrop Grumman because national security missions require stealth aircraft, nuclear deterrence systems, space payloads, sensors, communications, command networks, and advanced defense systems that must work under strict performance and security standards.
NOC benefits from prime-contractor status, classified program experience, defense clearances, long qualification cycles, installed platforms, systems integration, and customer trust. The moat is strongest where technical failure is unacceptable.
The thesis fails if B-21 or Sentinel costs rise again, fixed-price contracts absorb margin, Space Systems or GEM 63XL production costs exceed estimates, supply chain constraints delay delivery, or budget and procurement changes slow awards.
Kathy Warden has focused Northrop Grumman on advanced defense, space, deterrence, and mission systems. The management test is converting a record backlog into cash while avoiding repeated development-program charges across the portfolio.
NOC sits in long-duration defense trends: strategic deterrence, stealth aircraft, space security, missile defense, autonomous systems, resilient communications, and allied modernization. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At about 17.23x TTM EPS and 21.25x free cash flow per share, NOC is not priced like a distressed contractor. Margin of safety improves if program execution stays clean or price resets closer to the $530 to $536 support zone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOC quote reference | $542.48 closing price as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis NOC overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $77.06 billion calculated market cap, verified from $542.48 x 142.06 million shares with a 0.01% deviation from the reported value | Pineify financial_rigor.py and CompaniesMarketCap share count | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 142.06 million shares, cross-checked against 142,062,680 issued shares at June 30, 2026 in the Q2 earnings release | Northrop Grumman Q2 2026 earnings release and CompaniesMarketCap | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $10.876 billion sales up 5%, $1.094 billion net earnings, diluted EPS $7.68, $20.0 billion net awards, and a record $104.7 billion total backlog | Northrop Grumman Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 raised guidance | Sales $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion, MTM-adjusted EPS $28.60 to $29.10, and adjusted free cash flow $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion | Northrop Grumman Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | $42.892 billion TTM revenue, $4.496 billion TTM net income, $31.48 TTM EPS, and $3.646 billion TTM free cash flow | StockAnalysis NOC financials (Fiscal.ai data) | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.307 billion cash and equivalents at June 30, 2026, with total debt near $16.29 billion | Northrop Grumman Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.23x TTM EPS, 4.33x book value, 21.25x free cash flow per share, and 1.82% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | Barchart 50-day MA $535.55, 100-day MA $588.50, 200-day MA $606.35, 14-day RSI 54.06, 14-day ATR $16.34, and 14-day historic volatility 25.05% | Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $643.62, ranging from $538 to $815 across 23 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page (S&P Global data) | August 2, 2026 |
This NOC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, rates, budgets, contract costs, or market multiples change.
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