NMI Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
NMIH AI stock analysis currently reads NMI Holdings as a well-capitalized US private mortgage insurer focused on residential mortgage guaranty insurance. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the reference NASDAQ quote was $41.16 with a market capitalization near $3.13 billion. NMIH generates consistent premium growth through disciplined underwriting, risk-based pricing, and expanding lender relationships. The constructive case rests on a ~53.8% net profit margin, a ~15% ROE, ~$413 million in free cash flow (FY 2025), aggressive share repurchases ($105M in FY 2025 alone), a low-beta profile (0.54), and a low debt-to-equity ratio of ~16%. The caution is that mortgage insurance is tied to US housing health, interest rates, unemployment, home prices, and credit performance. NMIH does not pay a dividend, returning all excess capital through buybacks. This NMIH AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$41.16
Market cap
$3.13 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-margin private mortgage insurer with consistent premium growth, strong capital returns via aggressive buybacks, and industry-leading ROE, but no dividend and housing-cycle exposure keep the margin of safety moderate
Trend status
Above both the 50-day ($38.19) and 200-day ($38.37) moving averages, near the 52-week high of $42.28 with moderate upward momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
July 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance (PMI) to US residential mortgage lenders, protecting them against borrower default. The company earns net premiums on insured loans and manages risk through underwriting criteria, captive reinsurance, and geographic diversification. Revenue has grown from $485.6M (FY 2021) to $705.6M (FY 2025), a CAGR of approximately 9.8%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulatory approval as a qualified PMI provider under PMIERs, long-term lender relationships, proprietary underwriting analytics, a lean 230-employee operating model that drives industry-leading margins, and capital barriers to entry from state insurance regulation. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Adam Pollitzer has led NMIH since its 2011 founding, building a technology-driven underwriting platform with consistent underwriting profitability. The team has demonstrated disciplined risk selection, conservative reserving, and aggressive share repurchases ($105M in FY 2025). The lean employee base (230) relative to peers suggests operating efficiency but also key-person concentration risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY 2025 revenue was approximately $705.6M with net income of $388.9M. The company generates a net profit margin above 53%, ROE of approximately 15.0%, and has grown diluted EPS from $2.65 (FY 2021) to $4.92 (FY 2025), a CAGR of about 16.7%. Q1 2026 continued the trend with EPS of $1.28 diluted, revenue of $183.5M, and net income of $99.3M. | High |
| Valuation | At $41.16, the stock trades at approximately 8.4x TTM EPS of ~$4.91, about 1.21x book value (BVPS ~$34.11), a P/FCF of about 7.3x on ~$413M levered free cash flow, and a 0% dividend yield as NMIH does not pay a dividend. These multiples reflect the market pricing in a normalized housing cycle rather than peak credit conditions. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NMIH trades at $41.16, above both the 50-day ($38.19) and 200-day ($38.37) moving averages, near the 52-week high of $42.28. The 52-week range is $34.84 to $42.28, with the stock showing a gradual uptrend from the $34-35 area over the past year with average daily volume of approximately 583K shares. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are a US housing downturn that increases delinquencies and loss severity, interest rate increases that reduce refinance and purchase volume, adverse selection from lender retention practices, regulatory changes to the MI industry, potential credit deterioration in insured vintages, and key-person risk given the lean organizational structure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for verified financial data points from FMP and SEC filings. Medium for the forecast because mortgage insurance earnings depend on macroeconomic housing variables and credit cycles that carry inherent forecasting uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NMIH is a well-managed, high-margin mortgage insurer with aggressive buyback-driven capital returns, but the stock already prices a solid operating story and remains sensitive to housing cycle shifts, interest rate changes, and the credit environment. | Medium |
NMIH AI stock forecast
The NMIH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $41.16 quote and FY 2025 diluted EPS of $4.92. A three-year framework projects a bullish value near $80+, a base value near $55, and a bearish value near $30 before considering the buyback tailwind. These are scenario outputs, not a reliable prediction of NMI Holdings stock price.
$65 to $85
More likely if EPS compounds near 10% annually through continued premium growth, benign credit conditions, steady new insurance written, efficient expense management, aggressive buybacks continue reducing share count by 3-5% annually, and investors value NMIH near 12x normalized earnings.
$48 to $60
More likely if EPS grows about 6-8% annually with moderate housing activity, normalized loss ratios, steady premium yields, continued buybacks, and the market values NMIH near 10x earnings with book value compounding.
$28 to $38
More likely if a housing downturn increases delinquency rates and loss severity, new insurance volume contracts, interest rates rise further pressuring affordability, or investors value NMIH closer to 7x earnings near or below book value.
NMIH AI technical analysis
NMIH AI technical analysis starts from the July 12, 2026 data cutoff and a $41.16 NASDAQ reference quote. The stock is above both the 50-day ($38.19) and 200-day ($38.37) moving averages, trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($34.84 to $42.28) with a low beta of 0.54. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages, RSI, options flow, and volume should be checked before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $41.16 | Reference NASDAQ quote near the market close, verified via FMP API during the July 12, 2026 workflow. |
| Near support | $38.00 to $39.00 | Zone around the reported 50-day moving average ($38.19). Holding this band would keep the short-term uptrend intact. |
| Secondary support | $35.00 to $36.00 | Area near the lower end of the 52-week range. A test of this zone would suggest a more significant housing-cycle repricing or sentiment shift. |
| Major support | $32.00 to $34.00 | Deep risk-control zone that would likely reflect deteriorating housing market conditions or credit loss expectations. |
| Near resistance | $42.00 to $43.00 | Area around the 52-week high near $42.28. A close above it with volume would strengthen the breakout case. |
| Secondary resistance | $45.00 to $48.00 | Upper valuation band that would imply a re-rating based on sustained premium growth and benign credit conditions. |
| Moving averages | Above both 50-day and 200-day | The 50-day SMA is ~$38.19 and the 200-day SMA is ~$38.37, with price at $41.16 above both indicating a bullish technical posture. |
| Momentum | Moderately positive | Price has risen from the $34-35 area over the past year toward $41.16, with RSI likely in the 55-65 range on recent reads. |
| Volume | About 500K to 700K average daily shares | A reclaim of the $42+ zone would carry more weight if volume moves above the recent average near 583K shares. |
| Volatility | Low (beta 0.54) | NMIH has a low beta of 0.54, meaning it tends to move less than the overall market. It can still move sharply on housing data, interest rates, and quarterly credit metrics. |
| Invalidation | Close below $38.00 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average zone would weaken the trend-following setup and shift attention to the 52-week low and risk control. |
NMIH AI trading strategy
The NMIH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring NMIH. It does not tell any individual investor to buy, sell, or hold NMI Holdings stock.
Watch for NMIH to reclaim and hold $42+ with volume above the recent average while premium yield, NIW (new insurance written), loss ratio, book value growth, and credit metrics remain stable or improving.
A failed reclaim, weak volume, or a close back below $38.00 should invalidate the short-term setup.
If NMIH pulls back toward $35 to $37 while premium growth, expense ratio, book value, and credit performance remain solid, compare the price with book value and normalized earnings power.
Do not treat a lower price as value if the decline is driven by rising delinquencies, higher loss ratios, worsening housing data, or a slowdown in buyback activity.
Track NMIH premium yield, NIW, persistency, loss ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio, book value per share, ROE, buyback pace, PMIERs sufficiency, and housing market indicators (home prices, mortgage rates, employment, housing starts).
Reduce confidence when price strength is not matched by credit quality, premium growth, capital strength, and consistent book value compounding.
Investment research summary
Customers (mortgage lenders) pay NMIH to insure the credit risk on residential mortgage loans, enabling lenders to meet GSE capital requirements and reduce risk on their balance sheets. NMIH earns net premiums over the life of each loan and manages risk through underwriting, reinsurance, geographic diversification, and investment income on a $3.1B investment portfolio.
NMIH has regulatory qualification as a PMI provider, long-standing lender relationships, proprietary underwriting analytics, a low-cost 230-employee operating model, and capital strength under PMIERs. MI providers benefit from GSE capital requirements that make their product essential for low-down-payment lenders, but the moat narrows in a commodity pricing environment.
The thesis fails if a housing recession drives delinquencies and loss severity above modeled expectations, interest rates compress new mortgage volume for an extended period, lenders retain more low-risk loans and leave adverse selection for MI, capital requirements tighten unexpectedly, or the lean organizational structure creates key-person or operational risk.
Management is judged on underwriting discipline through the cycle, capital allocation between buybacks and reinvestment, investment in technology and efficiency, conservative reserving, and the ability to grow book value per share consistently without taking excessive tail risk. The company does not pay a dividend, returning all excess capital through share repurchases.
Private mortgage insurance benefits from structural demand due to GSE capital requirements that push low-down-payment loans to MI coverage. The industry is cyclical with housing and credit markets, but long-term demand is supported by demographic-driven household formation, the need for affordable homeownership options, and a structural shift away from FHA high-LTV lending.
At ~8.4x TTM earnings and ~1.2x book value, NMIH prices in a normalized housing and credit environment. Margin of safety depends on loss ratios staying manageable through the cycle and book value continuing to compound through premium earnings, investment returns, and aggressive share buybacks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMIH NASDAQ price | $41.16 | FMP API quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.13 billion | FMP API quote and market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 76 million (basic) | FMP Q1 2026 filing (weighted avg 76,175,000 basic) | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $34.84 to $42.28 | FMP API quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 total revenue | $705.6 million | FMP API annual income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 net income | $388.9 million | FMP API annual income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 diluted EPS | $4.92 | FMP API annual income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $183.5 million | FMP API quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $99.3 million | FMP API quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 diluted EPS | $1.28 | FMP API quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM P/E ratio | ~8.4x | FMP API ratios-ttm (P/E TTM: 8.23x) | July 12, 2026 |
| Price-to-book ratio | ~1.21x (BVPS ~$34.11) | Calculated from FMP balance sheet: $2,591,986,000 equity / ~76M shares = ~$34.11 BVPS | July 12, 2026 |
| Net profit margin (TTM) | ~53.8% | FMP API ratios-ttm (netProfitMarginTTM: 0.538) | July 12, 2026 |
| Return on equity (estimated) | ~15.0% | Calculated from FMP data: $388.9M NI / (avg equity ~$2.4B). FMP reported ROE TTM at ~0.06% which appears erroneous | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.54 | FMP API profile | July 12, 2026 |
| Total cash and investments | $3.14 billion in total investments; $43.9M cash | FMP API annual balance sheet (FY 2025) | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt | $417.0 million | FMP API annual balance sheet (FY 2025) | July 12, 2026 |
| Net debt | $373.1 million | FMP API annual balance sheet (FY 2025) gross debt of $417M minus cash of $43.9M | July 12, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | ~16.1% | Calculated: $417.0M debt / $2,591.9M equity | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 free cash flow | $412.5 million | FMP API annual cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 share repurchases | $105.1 million | FMP API annual cash flow statement (commonStockRepurchased) | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward annual dividend | None ($0.00, NMIH does not pay a dividend) | FMP API profile and cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | ~$3.47 billion (current estimate) | FMP API enterprise-values (FY 2025: $3.54B) | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day SMA ~$38.19; 200-day SMA ~$38.37 | FMP API quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
This NMIH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market prices, and your own risk constraints.
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