Nasdaq, Inc. research snapshot
NDAQ AI stock analysis reads Nasdaq, Inc. as a high-quality market infrastructure and financial technology company that is compounding across all three divisions. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NDAQ closed at $94.19 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $52.65 billion. The July 23, 2026 Q2 report delivered net revenue of $1.5 billion up 15%, solutions revenue of $1.2 billion up 17%, ARR of $3.3 billion up 12%, and diluted EPS of $1.07 up 25%, the first time quarterly EPS exceeded $1. Index AUM crossed $1 trillion for the first time, SpaceX became the largest IPO in history, and 2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance was raised. The stock is above its major moving averages with 14-day RSI near 60, but the valuation is full at about 27.5x trailing EPS, 21.5x forward EPS, and 27x trailing free cash flow, with gross leverage near 2.6x. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$94.19
Market cap
$52.65 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality market infrastructure compounder with double-digit growth at a premium multiple
Trend status
Constructive, with the price above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after record Q2 2026 results
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nasdaq operates listings, equities and options exchanges, indexes, market data, workflow analytics, anti-financial-crime technology, regulatory technology, and capital markets software, with all three divisions growing double digits in Q2 2026. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from exchange licenses, the Nasdaq listing brand, the Nasdaq-100 and QQQ index franchise with over $1 trillion in ETP AUM, liquidity network effects, deep market data, regulated workflow software, and high switching costs in capital markets infrastructure. | High |
| Management | Chair and CEO Adena Friedman and CFO Sarah Youngwood delivered record Q2 results with 25% EPS growth, 57% operating margin, free cash flow of $477 million, $356 million of Q2 buybacks, and gross leverage down to 2.6x. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net revenue rose 15% to $1.5 billion, solutions revenue rose 17% to $1.2 billion, ARR rose 12% to $3.3 billion, diluted EPS rose 25% to $1.07, and operating margin expanded 2 points to 57%. | High |
| Valuation | At $94.19, NDAQ traded near 27.5x trailing EPS, 21.5x forward EPS, 9.4x sales, 27.0x free cash flow, and a 1.32% dividend yield, a premium multiple versus the broader market. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above its 20-day average near $90.78, 50-day near $88.08, 100-day near $87.83, and 200-day near $89.23, with 14-day RSI near 60, so the chart turned constructive after the Q2 report. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are a pullback in IPO and trading activity, the 2.6x gross leverage, premium valuation, index and market data competition, regulatory and market structure changes, and software retention across the FinTech portfolio. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, releases, third-party quote data, and verified math. Medium for forward returns because the next outcome depends on IPO and trading cycles, AI monetization, leverage, and valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NDAQ is a quality market infrastructure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
NDAQ AI stock forecast
The NDAQ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $94.19 and TTM EPS of $3.43. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish value near $56, a base value near $96, and a bullish value near $136 over three years before future buyback or dilution effect, using EPS growth of 3%, 10%, and 15% and exit multiples of 15x, 21x, and 26x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$130 to $140
More likely if IPO and trading activity stay elevated, index ETP AUM keeps setting records, ARR compounds in the low double digits, Verafin and Calypso keep expanding, leverage falls below 2.5x, and the market rewards Nasdaq with a high-twenties earnings multiple.
$90 to $100
More likely if revenue grows high single digits to low double digits, EPS compounds near the consensus path of about $4.14 for FY2026 and $4.65 for FY2027, leverage declines gradually, and the market holds NDAQ near a low-twenties earnings multiple.
$52 to $62
More likely if IPO and trading volumes cool, AI monetization in FinTech disappoints, index or market data competition lowers economics, regulatory pressure rises, leverage limits capital returns, or investors compress the multiple toward the mid-teens.
NDAQ AI technical analysis
NDAQ AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed NDAQ at $94.19 at the July 31, 2026 close, above its 20-day moving average near $90.78, 50-day near $88.08, 100-day near $87.83, and 200-day near $89.23, with 14-day RSI near 60 and 14-day ADX near 28.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.19 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near support | $90 to $91 | The 20-day moving average sat near $90.78, a natural first pullback support after the post-earnings move. |
| Secondary support | $87.50 to $89.50 | The 50-day average near $88.08, 100-day near $87.83, and 200-day near $89.23 form a support cluster for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $96 | The recent day high and the 5-day average near $94.96 mark the first overhead zone before a test of the 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $100 to $102 | The 52-week high of $101.79 is the key upside reference; a close above it would confirm a breakout to new highs. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.46, ADX 28.33 | 14-day RSI near 60 was constructive but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 28 with positive directional index near 31 signaled an uptrend in progress. |
| Volume | About 4.06 million shares | The 20-day average volume of about 4.06 million shares provides a liquidity reference for judging whether the rally has sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.96, 14-day volatility near 29% | NDAQ has moved close to market beta, while IPO flows, earnings, leverage, and regulation can add company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $88, then $87.80 | A close below the 50-day and 200-day cluster near $88 to $89 would weaken the recovery. A close below the 100-day near $87.83 would signal a deeper trend failure. |
NDAQ AI trading strategy
The NDAQ AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an exchange, index, data, and financial technology stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, ARR disclosures, volume data, leverage updates, IPO pipeline news, regulatory news, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for NDAQ to hold above the 20-day average near $91, reclaim the $95 to $96 overhead zone, then break the 52-week high near $101.79 with rising volume and continued Q3 earnings momentum.
A close below $88 to $89 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review of the trend setup.
If NDAQ pulls back toward the $90 to $91 support or the $87.50 to $89.50 moving-average cluster without a thesis break, compare the price move with ARR growth, IPO pipeline, index net inflows, Verafin and Calypso bookings, and management commentary.
Do not treat recurring revenue as a substitute for a stop because leverage, software execution, or IPO cycle risk can still cause a sharp rerating.
Track ARR, solutions revenue, Index revenue and net inflows, Financial Technology revenue and net revenue retention, Market Services net revenue, operating margin, cash flow, leverage, buybacks, dividends, IPO activity, and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence if growth comes mainly from temporary IPO or trading activity while ARR growth, software retention, leverage reduction, or margin progress weakens.
Investment research summary
Nasdaq helps companies list securities, investors access markets, asset managers license indexes, banks and exchanges run capital markets infrastructure, and financial institutions monitor crime, risk, surveillance, and regulatory workflows. Customers pay for access to trusted markets, branded indexes, and mission-critical software.
The moat is built from the Nasdaq brand, exchange licenses, issuer relationships, the Nasdaq-100 and QQQ franchise with over $1 trillion in ETP AUM, deep market data, regulated software workflows, Verafin anti-financial-crime data, client integrations, and the cost of moving mission-critical capital markets systems.
The thesis fails if market activity cools, IPO demand stalls, index competition lowers economics, AI monetization in FinTech disappoints, regulators pressure fees or market structure, leverage restricts flexibility, or software customers slow renewals.
Adena Friedman has moved Nasdaq toward a more recurring revenue mix through technology, data, indexes, and FinTech. The record Q2 2026 report with 25% EPS growth, 57% operating margin, and leverage down to 2.6x supports the strategy, but integration discipline and IPO cycle dependence remain central to the case.
Nasdaq sits inside long-running demand for electronic markets, always-on 23/5 trading, index-linked investing, financial data, market surveillance, tokenization, cloud-based capital markets infrastructure, anti-financial-crime automation, and AI-enabled compliance, and the 2026 IPO market has re-opened.
The current price is above its moving averages and near the upper part of the 52-week range, but the stock still prices Nasdaq as a premium exchange and software compounder. Margin of safety depends on durable recurring revenue growth, leverage reduction, and execution against a multiple near 27.5x trailing EPS.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ price | $94.19 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $52.65 billion, verified as $94.19 x 558.98 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net revenue and EPS | $1.5 billion net revenue up 15%, solutions revenue $1.2 billion up 17%, and diluted EPS of $1.07 up 25% | Nasdaq Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 ARR and division growth | ARR of $3.3 billion up 12%, Capital Access Platforms revenue up 18%, Financial Technology revenue up 15%, and Market Services net revenue up 11% | Nasdaq Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 margins and cash flow | Operating margin 57% and EBITDA margin 60%, both up 2 points, with Q2 free cash flow of $477 million and $2.2 billion over the trailing 12 months at 97% conversion | Nasdaq Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital returns | Dividend of $0.31 per share or $174 million at a 31% payout, 4.1 million shares repurchased for $356 million, and $903 million of first-half buybacks versus $616 million in all of 2025 | Nasdaq Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Index and listing milestones | Index ETP AUM surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, record Q2 net inflows of $51 billion, and the SpaceX IPO raised $86 billion as the largest IPO in history | Nasdaq Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $5.25 billion revenue up 12.91% and $1.79 billion earnings up 60.07%, cross-checked against Nasdaq FY2025 results and StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis and Nasdaq FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $555 million cash and cash equivalents, $9.32 billion total debt, and net debt of $8.76 billion as of the latest reported quarter | StockAnalysis statistics balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 558.98 million shares, down 0.99% year over year and 0.70% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis statistics share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 27.47x trailing PE, 21.50x forward PE, 9.38x sales, 4.42x book, and 26.99x free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $88.08, 200-day moving average $89.23, 14-day RSI 60.46, 14-day ADX 28.33, beta 0.96, and 20-day average volume 4.06 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $110.07 across 17 analysts, low $84 and high $135, median $110 | StockAnalysis forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell out of 17 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $5.91 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $4.14, and FY2027 revenue estimate $6.40 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $4.65 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $112 to $114, UBS $120, RBC $108, TD Cowen $105 to $108, Morgan Stanley $112 to $120, and BofA raised to $135 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts and The Fly | July 29, 2026 |
| Leadership | Adena T. Friedman is Chair and CEO; Sarah Youngwood is EVP and CFO | Nasdaq investor relations officers page | August 2, 2026 |
This NDAQ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool based on publicly available filings, company releases, third-party market data, and reproducible valuation math as of August 2, 2026. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios can be wrong if earnings, market conditions, IPO activity, regulation, software execution, leverage, liquidity, or valuation multiples change.
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