Nasdaq, Inc. research snapshot
NDAQ AI stock analysis currently reads Nasdaq, Inc. as a high-quality market infrastructure and financial technology company, not just a stock exchange operator. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, NDAQ closed at $86.43 on July 7 with a market capitalization near $48.88 billion. The business has recurring revenue, index scale, exchange network effects, and anti-financial-crime software momentum, but the stock is still below key moving averages and the case depends on Adenza integration, debt reduction, trading activity, listings, regulation, and valuation discipline. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$86.43
Market cap
$48.88 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
High-quality exchange, index, data, and financial technology platform with integration and leverage risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day averages, with neutral RSI and an upcoming Q2 earnings catalyst
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nasdaq operates listings, exchanges, indexes, market data, workflow analytics, anti-financial-crime technology, regulatory technology, and capital markets software. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from exchange licenses, listing brand value, liquidity network effects, proprietary indexes, recurring data, regulated workflow software, and high switching costs in capital markets infrastructure. | High |
| Management | Chair and CEO Adena Friedman has shifted Nasdaq toward higher recurring software and data revenue, while CFO Sarah Youngwood is central to capital allocation, leverage reduction, and integration discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net revenue was about $5.25 billion and Q1 2026 net revenue rose 14% to $1.407 billion, with ARR up 13% to $3.188 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $86.43, NDAQ traded near 26.0x TTM EPS, 21.4x forward EPS, 9.0x sales, 24.4x free cash flow per share, and a 1.4% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day average near $87.75 and 200-day average near $88.97, with RSI near 54.17, so the chart is neutral but not fully repaired. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are slower listings and trading activity, Adenza execution, debt load, software retention, regulatory pressure, index competition, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, releases, third-party quote data, and math. Medium for forward returns because the next outcome depends on market activity, software execution, leverage, and valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NDAQ is a quality market infrastructure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
NDAQ AI stock forecast
The NDAQ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $86.43 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $3.32 produced a bullish value near $127.10, a base value near $93.50, and a bearish value near $58.20 before any future buyback or dilution effect. These outputs show that upside depends on durable recurring revenue, successful Adenza integration, index growth, exchange activity, debt progress, and the market keeping a premium multiple on Nasdaq cash generation.
$120 to $130
More likely if Financial Technology, Index, and Market Services all grow, ARR compounds in the low double digits, Adenza cross-sell improves margins, debt falls, and the market rewards Nasdaq with a high-twenties earnings multiple.
$90 to $98
More likely if revenue grows in the mid to high single digits, EPS compounds near the high single digits, leverage declines gradually, and the market values NDAQ near a low-twenties earnings multiple.
$55 to $65
More likely if listings and trading revenue weaken, Adenza integration disappoints, regulatory or pricing pressure rises, debt limits capital returns, or investors compress the multiple toward the high teens.
NDAQ AI technical analysis
NDAQ AI technical analysis is neutral to cautious as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed NDAQ at $86.43 at the July 7 close, below the 50-day moving average near $87.75 and below the 200-day moving average near $88.97, with RSI near 54.17.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $86.43 | July 7, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near support | $84 to $86 | This zone covers the recent rebound area and the first level where buyers need to defend the current range. |
| Secondary support | $80 to $82 | A break below near support would point back toward the lower part of the 2026 trading range. |
| Near resistance | $87.75 to $89 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages sit close together, making this the first repair zone for the chart. |
| Major resistance | $96 to $100 | This zone marks the higher reference area from late 2025 and early 2026 where valuation resistance may reappear. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.17 | RSI was neutral, so the setup needs price confirmation above moving averages rather than assuming a durable uptrend. |
| Volume | About 4.77 million shares | The 20-day average volume provides a liquidity reference for judging whether a rebound or breakdown has sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.00 | NDAQ has moved close to market beta, while exchange activity, software bookings, earnings, debt, and regulation can add company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $84, then $80 | A close below $84 would weaken the near-term recovery attempt. A close below $80 would signal a deeper trend failure. |
NDAQ AI trading strategy
The NDAQ AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an exchange, index, data, and financial technology stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, ARR disclosures, volume data, debt updates, regulatory news, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for NDAQ to hold the $84 to $86 support band, reclaim the $88 to $89 moving-average zone, then rebuild above $96 with improving volume and Q2 earnings confirmation.
A close below $84 or a failed reclaim after the July 23 earnings report should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If NDAQ pulls back without a thesis break, compare the price move with ARR growth, FinTech bookings, Index net inflows, listings activity, Market Services revenue, leverage, and management commentary.
Do not treat recurring revenue as a substitute for a stop because high leverage, software execution, or regulatory pressure can still cause a sharp rerating.
Track ARR, annualized SaaS revenue, Financial Technology revenue, Index revenue, Market Services net revenue, operating margin, cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence if growth comes mainly from temporary market activity while ARR, software retention, debt reduction, or margin progress weakens.
Investment research summary
Nasdaq helps companies list securities, investors access markets, asset managers license indexes, banks and exchanges run capital markets infrastructure, and financial institutions monitor crime, risk, surveillance, and regulatory workflows.
The moat is built from the Nasdaq brand, exchange licenses, issuer relationships, deep market data, index scale, regulated software workflows, anti-financial-crime data, client integrations, and the cost of moving mission-critical capital markets systems.
The thesis fails if market activity cools, IPO demand stays weak, index competition lowers economics, Adenza underdelivers, regulators pressure fees or market structure, debt restricts flexibility, or software customers slow renewals.
Adena Friedman has moved Nasdaq toward a more recurring revenue mix through technology, data, indexes, and Adenza. That strategy raises quality if execution works, but it also makes integration discipline and leverage reduction central to the case.
Nasdaq sits inside long-running demand for electronic markets, index-linked investing, financial data, market surveillance, cloud-based capital markets infrastructure, anti-financial-crime automation, AI-enabled compliance, and always-on trading systems.
The current price is below its moving averages and below late-2025 levels, but the stock still prices Nasdaq as a premium exchange and software compounder. Margin of safety depends on recurring revenue durability, debt reduction, and execution against a premium multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ price | $86.43 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $48.88 billion, verified as $86.43 x 565.54 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net revenue and EPS | $1.407 billion net revenue, $0.91 GAAP diluted EPS, and $0.96 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Nasdaq Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 ARR and segment growth | $3.188 billion ARR, Financial Technology revenue up 20%, Index revenue up 14%, and Market Services net revenue up 13% | Nasdaq Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $5.25 billion revenue and $1.79 billion earnings, cross-checked against Nasdaq FY2025 results and StockAnalysis | Nasdaq FY2025 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $515 million cash and cash equivalents, $8.957 billion total debt obligations as of March 31, 2026 | Nasdaq Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 565.54 million shares from StockAnalysis, cross-checked against 564.75 million shares in Nasdaq Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis statistics and Nasdaq Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 26.04x trailing PE, 21.44x forward PE, 9.02x sales, 4.06x book, and 24.39x free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $87.75, 200-day moving average $88.97, RSI 54.17, beta 1.00, and 20-day average volume 4.77 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Leadership | Adena T. Friedman is Chair and CEO; Sarah Youngwood is EVP and CFO | Nasdaq investor relations officers page | July 8, 2026 |
This NDAQ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool based on publicly available filings, company releases, third-party market data, and reproducible valuation math as of July 8, 2026. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios can be wrong if earnings, market conditions, regulation, software execution, leverage, liquidity, or valuation multiples change.
