Bullish case
$210 to $225
More likely if energy, rates, equity options, listings, fixed income data, index services, mortgage technology, and MarketAxess integration grow together while ICE reduces leverage and keeps adjusted margins high.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. research snapshot
ICE AI Stock Analysis
ICE AI stock analysis currently reads Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. as a high-quality market infrastructure company that combines exchanges, clearing, fixed income data, index services, connectivity, NYSE listings, and mortgage workflow software. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ICE closed at $152.48 on July 31 with a market capitalization near $85.60 billion. On July 30, 2026, ICE reported record second quarter results with net revenues up 5% to $2.7 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.90, and announced a $5.7 billion agreement to acquire MarketAxess to extend its fixed-income network. The stock now trades above its 50-day average but below its 200-day average, and the case depends on trading activity, data growth, mortgage technology integration, MarketAxess closing and integration, debt reduction, regulation, and valuation discipline. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$152.48
Market cap
$85.60 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality exchange, clearing, data, and mortgage technology franchise with record recurring revenue, a new fixed-income growth deal, and rising but not extreme leverage
Trend status
Above the 50-day average near $140 and below the 200-day average near $155, with RSI near 65 and improving momentum after record Q2 results
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. ICE has long public filings, detailed segment disclosure, quarterly releases, SEC filings, volume reports, management pages, analyst coverage, and multiple third-party financial datasets.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating ICE as an obvious compounding infrastructure winner while under-weighting leverage from the MarketAxess deal, integration execution, trading volume cyclicality, mortgage technology execution, regulatory scrutiny, fee pressure, and data competition.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, shares, revenue, net income, cash, debt, free cash flow, EPS, segment revenue, and Q2 2026 results. Medium for technical levels because static pages can age quickly after large moves.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. ICE is easier to underwrite than most financial companies because its venues and data assets are visible, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because volume, rates, mortgage activity, deal integration, leverage, regulation, and market multiples can change quickly.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ICE operates exchanges, clearing houses, NYSE listings, fixed income data, index and network services, and mortgage technology across mission-critical financial workflows. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from liquidity network effects, benchmark contracts, regulated clearing, NYSE brand value, proprietary data, workflow integration, and scale in market infrastructure. | High |
| Management | Founder, Chair, and CEO Jeff Sprecher remains central to strategy, while CFO Warren Gardiner has emphasized cash flow, capital return, and leverage discipline. The MarketAxess deal expands fixed income but adds integration risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net revenues rose 7% to $9.9 billion, and Q2 2026 net revenues rose 5% to $2.7 billion with record recurring revenue of $1.35 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.90. | High |
| Valuation | At $152.48, ICE traded near 21.5x TTM EPS, 18.5x forward EPS, 8.1x sales, 16.9x free cash flow, and a 1.36% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above its 50-day average near $140.25 and below its 200-day average near $154.73, with RSI near 65.38 after a recovery off the 52-week low. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are MarketAxess closing and integration, higher leverage, lower exchange volumes, energy market normalization, mortgage market weakness, regulation, client concentration, and data product competition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, current quote data, and math. Medium for forward returns because the next outcome depends on activity levels, deal execution, leverage, regulation, and valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ICE is a quality financial infrastructure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
ICE AI stock forecast
ICE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ICE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $152.48 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $7.08 produced a bullish value near $218.80, a base value near $165.00, and a bearish value near $108.30 before any future buyback or dilution effect. These outputs show that upside depends on durable exchange activity, data growth, mortgage technology execution, MarketAxess closing and integration, debt progress, and the market keeping a premium multiple on ICE cash generation.
Base case
$160 to $170
More likely if revenue grows in the high single digits, EPS compounds near the low double digits, mortgage technology improves gradually, MarketAxess closes on time, and the market values ICE near a high-teens to 20x earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$105 to $115
More likely if volatility and transaction revenue cool, mortgage technology disappoints, MarketAxess integration drags on results, debt remains elevated, regulators pressure economics, or investors compress the multiple toward the low teens.
ICE AI technical analysis
ICE AI Technical Analysis
ICE AI technical analysis is cautiously improving as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed ICE at $152.48 at the July 31 close, above the 50-day moving average near $140.25 and below the 200-day moving average near $154.73, with RSI near 65.38.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $152.48 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near support | $146 to $148 | This zone covers the recent pullback area and the first level where buyers need to defend the recovery. |
| Secondary support | $140 to $142 | The 50-day moving average near $140.25 is the main near-term trend reference if the stock pulls back. |
| Major support | $132 to $136 | The 52-week low near $121.79 is the larger lower reference if the 50-day area fails. |
| Near resistance | $154 to $158 | The 200-day moving average near $154.73 is the first repair level for the longer chart. |
| Major resistance | $165 to $170 | Round-number supply above the 200-day average is the next trend test, with the 52-week high near $189.35 further up. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.38 | RSI is positive but approaching overbought, so price needs confirmation above the 200-day average rather than assuming a durable breakout. |
| Volume | About 4.27 million shares | The 20-day average volume provides a liquidity reference for judging whether a rebound or breakdown has sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.93 | ICE has moved close to market beta, while the MarketAxess deal, exchange volume, regulatory, debt, and mortgage technology headlines can add company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $140, then $132 to $136 | A close below $140 would weaken the near-term recovery attempt. A close below the low $130s would signal a deeper trend failure. |
ICE AI trading strategy
ICE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ICE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an exchange, clearing, data, and mortgage technology stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, MarketAxess deal updates, volume reports, debt updates, mortgage activity, volatility data, and a defined invalidation level.
Trend-following setup
Watch for ICE to hold the $146 to $148 support band, reclaim the 200-day average near $155, then build toward the $165 to $170 zone with improving volume and confirmation of MarketAxess closing progress.
A close below $140 or a failed reclaim after the October 29 earnings report should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If ICE pulls back without a thesis break, compare the price move with exchange open interest, energy and rates volumes, fixed income data growth, mortgage technology revenue, MarketAxess integration milestones, leverage, and management commentary.
Do not treat exchange quality as a substitute for a stop because higher debt, deal execution, regulation, or slower transaction revenue can still cause a sharp rerating.
Fundamental monitor
Track recurring revenue, transaction revenue, exchange margin, data annual subscription value, mortgage technology margins, adjusted free cash flow, debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, MarketAxess integration milestones, and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence if growth comes mainly from temporary volatility spikes while data, mortgage software, clearing economics, deal integration, or leverage progress weaken.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
ICE helps exchanges, banks, asset managers, hedge funds, corporations, mortgage lenders, servicers, brokers, and data users trade, clear, price, list, analyze, connect, and automate financial workflows.
Moat
The moat is built from benchmark contracts, NYSE listings, clearing infrastructure, deep liquidity, regulated permissions, proprietary data, index assets, network connectivity, and the cost of moving core workflows away from ICE platforms.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if trading volumes normalize, data customers push back on price, mortgage technology remains cyclical, MarketAxess integration disappoints, regulators alter economics, debt limits capital returns, or a better platform fragments liquidity and data demand.
Management
Jeff Sprecher is a founder-operator with a long acquisition and market-structure record. That history supports confidence, but it also creates key-person risk and makes capital allocation and deal integration discipline central to the case.
Industry trend
ICE sits inside long-running demand for electronic trading, central clearing, benchmark pricing, fixed income transparency, index data, financial connectivity, 24-hour access, mortgage workflow automation, and AI-driven data consumption.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average and the 2026 high. The business still carries premium infrastructure expectations plus new deal execution risk, so margin of safety depends on cash flow durability, debt reduction, segment mix, MarketAxess integration, and the market keeping a quality multiple.
Source-backed data
ICE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE price | $152.48 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $85.60 billion, verified as $152.48 x 561.39 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 561.39 million current shares, down about 0.95% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $9.931 billion net revenues, with $5.411 billion Exchanges, $2.419 billion Fixed Income and Data Services, and $2.101 billion Mortgage Technology; $3.315 billion net income attributable to ICE, $5.77 GAAP diluted EPS, and $6.95 adjusted diluted EPS | ICE FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $2.7 billion net revenues, up 5%, with $958 million net income attributable to ICE, $1.69 GAAP diluted EPS, $1.90 adjusted diluted EPS, and record recurring revenue of $1.35 billion, up 8% | ICE Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.1 billion unrestricted cash and $19.8 billion outstanding debt at June 30, 2026; StockAnalysis total debt was $20.53 billion | ICE Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $5.08 billion TTM free cash flow and $9.05 FCF per share; FY2025 adjusted free cash flow was $4.2 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow and ICE 2025 shareholder letter | August 2, 2026 |
| MarketAxess acquisition | About $5.7 billion enterprise value at $167 per share in cash, about a 33% premium, roughly 10.6x EV to adjusted EBITDA on a fully synergized basis, about $100 million in annualized expense synergies, and a close expected in the first half of 2027 | ICE Q2 2026 earnings call and press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day moving average $140.25, 200-day moving average $154.73, RSI 65.38, beta 0.93, and 20-day average volume about 4.27 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | TTM P/E of 21.53, forward P/E of 18.52, P/S of 8.11, P/B of 2.89, P/FCF of 16.86, and a dividend yield of 1.36% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating of Buy with an average price target of $182.23, about 19.5% above the current price, across 14 analysts with a low of $163 and a high of $218 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
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This ICE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, technicals, regulation, rates, mortgage demand, trading volumes, deal integration, leverage, or market sentiment change.
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