Bullish case
$210 to $225
More likely if energy, rates, equity options, listings, fixed income data, index services, and mortgage technology grow together while ICE reduces leverage and keeps adjusted margins high.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. research snapshot
ICE AI Stock Analysis
ICE AI stock analysis currently reads Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. as a high-quality market infrastructure company that combines exchanges, clearing, fixed income data, index services, connectivity, NYSE listings, and mortgage workflow software. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ICE closed at $136.45 on July 7 with a market capitalization near $77.29 billion. The business has durable network effects and strong free cash flow, but the stock remains below key moving averages and the case depends on trading activity, data growth, Black Knight mortgage technology integration, debt reduction, regulation, and valuation discipline. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$136.45
Market cap
$77.29 billion
AI score
77 / 100
Rating
High-quality exchange, clearing, data, and mortgage technology franchise with leverage and cycle risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day averages, with neutral RSI and a damaged one-year chart
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. ICE has long public filings, detailed segment disclosure, quarterly releases, SEC filings, volume reports, management pages, analyst coverage, and multiple third-party financial datasets.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating ICE as an obvious compounding infrastructure winner while under-weighting trading volume cyclicality, leverage from the Black Knight deal, mortgage technology execution, regulatory scrutiny, fee pressure, data competition, and founder-led key-person risk.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, shares, revenue, net income, cash, debt, free cash flow, EPS, segment revenue, and Q1 2026 results. Medium for technical levels because static pages can age quickly after large moves.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. ICE is easier to underwrite than most financial companies because its venues and data assets are visible, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because volume, rates, mortgage activity, regulation, leverage, and market multiples can change quickly.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ICE operates exchanges, clearing houses, NYSE listings, fixed income data, index and network services, and mortgage technology across mission-critical financial workflows. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from liquidity network effects, benchmark contracts, regulated clearing, NYSE brand value, proprietary data, workflow integration, and scale in market infrastructure. | High |
| Management | Founder, Chair, and CEO Jeff Sprecher remains central to strategy, while CFO Warren Gardiner has emphasized cash flow, capital return, investment, and leverage discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net revenues rose 7% to $9.9 billion, and Q1 2026 net revenues reached a record $3.0 billion with adjusted diluted EPS of $2.35. | High |
| Valuation | At $136.45, ICE traded near 19.9x TTM EPS, 17.1x forward EPS, 7.4x sales, 16.6x free cash flow per share, and a 1.5% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day average near $144.77 and 200-day average near $156.63, with RSI near 50.44 after a 25% one-year decline. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower exchange volumes, rate and energy market normalization, mortgage market weakness, high debt, regulation, client concentration, and data product competition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, current quote data, and math. Medium for forward returns because the next outcome depends on activity levels, leverage, regulation, and valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ICE is a quality financial infrastructure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
ICE AI stock forecast
ICE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ICE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $136.45 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $6.86 produced a bullish value near $221.70, a base value near $155.50, and a bearish value near $94.60 before any future buyback or dilution effect. These outputs show that upside depends on durable exchange activity, data growth, mortgage technology execution, debt progress, and the market keeping a premium multiple on ICE cash generation.
Base case
$150 to $160
More likely if revenue grows in the high single digits, EPS compounds near the low double digits, mortgage technology improves gradually, and the market values ICE near a high-teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$90 to $100
More likely if volatility and transaction revenue cool, mortgage technology disappoints, debt remains elevated, regulators pressure economics, or investors compress the multiple toward low-teens earnings.
ICE AI technical analysis
ICE AI Technical Analysis
ICE AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed ICE at $136.45 at the July 7 close, below the 50-day moving average near $144.77 and below the 200-day moving average near $156.63, with RSI near 50.44.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $136.45 | July 7, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near support | $132 to $136 | This zone covers the current rebound area and the first level where buyers need to defend the post-selloff range. |
| Secondary support | $122 to $125 | The 52-week low near $121.79 is the key lower reference if the current range breaks. |
| Near resistance | $144 to $146 | The 50-day moving average near $144.77 is the first repair level for the chart. |
| Major resistance | $156 to $158 | The 200-day moving average near $156.63 is the larger trend reference that buyers need to reclaim. |
| Momentum | RSI 50.44 | RSI was neutral, so price needs confirmation above resistance rather than assuming a durable reversal. |
| Volume | About 4.94 million shares | The 20-day average volume provides a liquidity reference for judging whether a rebound or breakdown has sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.95 | ICE has moved close to market beta, while exchange volume, regulatory, debt, and mortgage technology headlines can add company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $132, then $122 | A close below $132 would weaken the near-term recovery attempt. A close below the low-$120s would signal a deeper trend failure. |
ICE AI trading strategy
ICE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ICE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an exchange, clearing, data, and mortgage technology stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, volume reports, debt updates, mortgage activity, volatility data, and a defined invalidation level.
Trend-following setup
Watch for ICE to hold the $132 to $136 support band, reclaim the 50-day average near $145, then rebuild above the 200-day average near $157 with improving volume.
A close below $132 or a failed reclaim after the July 30 earnings report should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If ICE pulls back without a thesis break, compare the price move with exchange open interest, energy and rates volumes, fixed income data growth, mortgage technology revenue, leverage, and management commentary.
Do not treat exchange quality as a substitute for a stop because high debt, regulation, or slower transaction revenue can still cause a sharp rerating.
Fundamental monitor
Track recurring revenue, transaction revenue, exchange margin, data annual subscription value, mortgage technology margins, adjusted free cash flow, debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence if growth comes mainly from temporary volatility spikes while data, mortgage software, clearing economics, or leverage progress weaken.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
ICE helps exchanges, banks, asset managers, hedge funds, corporations, mortgage lenders, servicers, brokers, and data users trade, clear, price, list, analyze, connect, and automate financial workflows.
Moat
The moat is built from benchmark contracts, NYSE listings, clearing infrastructure, deep liquidity, regulated permissions, proprietary data, index assets, network connectivity, and the cost of moving core workflows away from ICE platforms.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if trading volumes normalize, data customers push back on price, mortgage technology remains cyclical, regulators alter economics, debt limits capital returns, or a better platform fragments liquidity and data demand.
Management
Jeff Sprecher is a founder-operator with a long acquisition and market-structure record. That history supports confidence, but it also creates key-person risk and makes capital allocation discipline central to the case.
Industry trend
ICE sits inside long-running demand for electronic trading, central clearing, benchmark pricing, fixed income transparency, index data, financial connectivity, 24-hour access, and mortgage workflow automation.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current price is below the 2026 high, but the business still carries premium infrastructure expectations. Margin of safety depends on cash flow durability, debt reduction, segment mix, and the market keeping a quality multiple.
Source-backed data
ICE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE price | $136.45 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $77.29 billion, verified as $136.45 x 566.43 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 566.43 million current shares, with 572 million basic shares in FY2025 | StockAnalysis statistics and financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net revenues | $9.931 billion net revenues, with $5.411 billion Exchanges, $2.419 billion Fixed Income and Data Services, and $2.101 billion Mortgage Technology | ICE FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $3.3 billion net income attributable to ICE, $5.77 GAAP diluted EPS, and $6.95 adjusted diluted EPS | ICE FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.0 billion net revenues, $1.4 billion net income attributable to ICE, $2.48 GAAP diluted EPS, and $2.35 adjusted diluted EPS | ICE Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $863 million unrestricted cash and $20.4 billion outstanding debt at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis total debt was $20.985 billion | ICE Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $4.67 billion TTM free cash flow and $8.24 FCF per share; FY2025 adjusted free cash flow was $4.2 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow and ICE 2025 shareholder letter | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day moving average $144.77, 200-day moving average $156.63, RSI 50.44, beta 0.95, and 20-day average volume 4.94 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| June 2026 activity | June total open interest rose 20% year over year, with total energy open interest up 6% | ICE June and Q2 2026 statistics | July 8, 2026 |
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This ICE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, technicals, regulation, rates, mortgage demand, trading volumes, leverage, or market sentiment change.