Bullish case
$325 to $345
More likely if interest-rate, equity-index, crypto, agriculture, and international volumes remain elevated, pricing changes hold, BrokerTec and EBS improve, and the CEO transition stays smooth.
CME Group Inc. research snapshot
CME AI Stock Analysis
CME AI stock analysis currently reads CME Group Inc. as a high-quality derivatives exchange and clearing franchise with benchmark futures, options, market data, and capital-efficient margin services. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, CME closed at $240.75 on July 7 with a market capitalization near $87.24 billion. The business has strong network effects and excellent margins, but the stock trades below key moving averages and depends on trading volumes, volatility, regulation, product pricing, and the 2027 CEO transition, so this page uses scenario ranges rather than a certain stock price prediction. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$240.75
Market cap
$87.24 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality derivatives marketplace with volume sensitivity and valuation discipline needed
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day averages after a drawdown, with neutral RSI
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. CME has long public filings, audited annual data, detailed quarterly releases, monthly volume reports, management disclosures, analyst coverage, and multiple third-party quote and financial datasets.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting CME as an obvious best-in-class exchange while under-weighting volume cyclicality, rate-cycle normalization, regulatory scrutiny, client concentration, fee sensitivity, prediction-market competition, and management transition risk.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, share count, revenue, net income, EPS, cash, debt, free cash flow, Q1 2026 results, and June 2026 volume disclosures. Medium for technical levels because static pages can age quickly after sharp moves.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. CME is easier to underwrite than most financial technology companies, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because volumes, volatility, rates, clearing rules, and valuation multiples can shift quickly.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CME operates benchmark futures, options, clearing, cash markets, and market data services across rates, equity indexes, FX, energy, agriculture, metals, and crypto. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from liquidity network effects, benchmark contracts, clearing scale, regulatory licenses, capital efficiencies, data products, and deep workflow integration. | High |
| Management | Terry Duffy will move to Executive Chairman in March 2027, and President and CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick is expected to become CEO, creating a planned but important leadership handoff. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose 14% to $1.9 billion, adjusted diluted EPS rose 20% to $3.36, and Q1 ADV reached a record 36.2 million contracts. | High |
| Valuation | At $240.75, CME traded near 20.5x TTM EPS, 19.7x forward EPS, 12.9x sales, 20.1x free cash flow per share, and a 2.1% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day average near $267.09 and 200-day average near $279.98, with RSI near 44.29, so the chart is still in repair mode. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower volatility, lower rate-product activity, fee pressure, regulatory changes, client concentration, competition, and execution risk around new products. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, releases, and math. Medium for forward returns because CME depends on activity levels, product mix, rules, and market valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. CME is a quality market infrastructure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
CME AI stock forecast
CME AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CME AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $240.75 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $11.72 produced a bullish value near $339.60, a base value near $257.80, and a bearish value near $175.80 before any share count change. These outputs show that upside depends on durable volumes and the market keeping a premium multiple on CME cash generation.
Base case
$245 to $265
More likely if ADV normalizes from Q1 records, revenue grows in the mid to high single digits, operating margins stay high, and the market values CME near a high-teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$170 to $185
More likely if volatility cools, rate futures activity slows, fee pressure rises, new competitors take share in event or crypto-linked products, and investors compress the earnings multiple.
CME AI technical analysis
CME AI Technical Analysis
CME AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed CME at $240.75 at the July 7 close, below the 50-day moving average near $267.09 and below the 200-day moving average near $279.98, with RSI near 44.29.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $240.75 | July 7, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near support | $230 to $241 | This zone includes the recent rebound area after the late-June selloff and is the first place to watch for buyer defense. |
| Secondary support | $220 to $225 | A break below the near support zone would point back toward the June weakness rather than a clean recovery. |
| Near resistance | $267 to $270 | The 50-day moving average near $267.09 is the first key repair level for the chart. |
| Major resistance | $280 to $285 | The 200-day moving average near $279.98 is the larger trend reference that buyers need to reclaim. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.29 | RSI was neutral to soft, so the setup needs follow-through rather than assuming a durable reversal. |
| Volume | About 4.21 million shares | The 20-day average volume gives a liquidity reference for judging whether a rebound or breakdown has sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.28 | CME has shown low market beta, but company-specific volume, regulation, and product-pricing headlines can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $230, then $220 | A close below $230 would weaken the near-term recovery attempt. A close below $220 would signal a deeper trend failure. |
CME AI trading strategy
CME AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CME AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a derivatives exchange, clearing, and market data stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, volume reports, volatility data, and a defined invalidation level.
Trend-following setup
Watch for CME to hold the $230 to $241 support band, reclaim the 50-day average near $267, then rebuild above the 200-day average near $280 with improving volume.
A close below $230 or a failed reclaim after the July 22 earnings report should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CME pulls back without a thesis break, compare the price move with ADV, rate volatility, equity-index volume, cryptocurrency volume, market data revenue, and management commentary.
Do not treat low beta as a substitute for a stop because exchange operators can rerate when volume, regulation, or competition expectations change.
Fundamental monitor
Track clearing and transaction fees, total average rate per contract, market data revenue, non-U.S. ADV, margin savings, cash and debt, buybacks, dividends, and CEO transition execution.
Reduce confidence if growth is concentrated in temporary volatility spikes while recurring data revenue, clearing economics, or product share weaken.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
CME helps institutions, asset managers, banks, hedge funds, market makers, corporates, farmers, energy firms, and retail brokers hedge and trade risk through standardized futures, options, clearing, cash markets, and market data.
Moat
The moat is built from benchmark contracts, deep liquidity pools, central clearing, regulatory permissions, margin offsets, proprietary data, global distribution, and the cost of moving risk-management workflows away from established venues.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if volatility and rate uncertainty normalize sharply, fee increases meet resistance, regulators change clearing or market-structure economics, clients shift activity elsewhere, or prediction and crypto markets fragment volume.
Management
Management has delivered strong margins and capital returns under Terry Duffy, while Lynne Fitzpatrick brings finance and corporate development experience into the planned CEO role. The handoff is orderly but still a key watch item.
Industry trend
CME sits inside long-running demand for derivatives, clearing, collateral efficiency, market data, global risk transfer, 24-hour access, crypto risk products, and event-style contracts.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current price is lower than the 2026 high but still prices CME as a premium compounding exchange, so margin of safety depends on volume durability, pricing power, and the market keeping a quality multiple.
Source-backed data
CME Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME price | $240.75 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $87.24 billion, verified as $240.75 x 362.36 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $1.9 billion revenue, $3.18 diluted EPS, and $3.36 adjusted diluted EPS | CME Group Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 activity | Record Q1 ADV of 36.2 million contracts, up 22%, with non-U.S. ADV of 11.4 million contracts | CME Group Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $6.5206 billion revenue and $4.0722 billion net income, cross-checked against StockAnalysis and StockTitan | CME Group FY2025 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $2.6 billion cash including a FICC deposit and $3.4 billion debt at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis showed $2.515 billion cash and short-term investments and $3.423 billion total debt | CME Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 20.54x TTM PE, 19.65x forward PE, 12.94x sales, 20.08x price to free cash flow, and 2.10% dividend yield by tool check | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $267.09, 200-day average $279.98, RSI 44.29, beta 0.28 | StockAnalysis stock price statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| June 2026 volume update | Record June ADV of 30.6 million contracts, up 19%, and Q2 ADV of 29.8 million contracts | CME Group June 2026 volume release | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Terry Duffy will transition to Executive Chairman on March 1, 2027, and Lynne Fitzpatrick is expected to become CEO | CME Group CEO transition announcement | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CME AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, valuation assumptions, and technical snapshots as of the data cutoff, and they may be wrong.