Is CBOE a buy according to AI stock analysis?

CBOE AI stock analysis does not label the stock a universal buy because Cboe has a strong exchange franchise but trades near the average analyst target and depends on trading volumes, volatility, regulation, and valuation. The decision depends on whether an investor believes index options, Data Vantage, event contracts, and clearing can sustain the raised outlook.

What is the CBOE AI stock forecast?

The CBOE AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain target. The bullish case is $410 to $450, the base case is $300 to $335, and the bearish case is $185 to $210, with the ranges driven by EPS growth, volume durability, and valuation-multiple assumptions over three years.

What technical levels matter for CBOE?

The CBOE technical levels that matter are near support around $295 to $300, key support around $279 to $285 from the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, resistance near $320 to $335, and the 52-week high of $371.18. A close below $284 would weaken the uptrend, while a close below $279 would signal that the rally failed.

Can AI predict CBOE stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize CBOE filings, trading volume releases, market data, technical levels, valuation math, and risk paths into a repeatable framework, but volatility regimes, earnings surprises, regulation, and competition can change the outcome.

How should I use this CBOE AI trading strategy?

Use this CBOE AI trading strategy as a checklist for monitoring trend, valuation, earnings, index options activity, Data Vantage growth, market share, and risk controls. It should support your own research process and should not replace position sizing, stop planning, tax considerations, or professional advice.

What drove the CBOE stock move in late July 2026?

CBOE jumped 4.62 percent on July 31, 2026 after reporting record Q2 2026 net revenue of $731.6 million, up 25 percent, with 50 percent GAAP diluted EPS growth, and raising its 2026 organic total net revenue growth target to mid to high teens.

What is the main bear case for CBOE?

The main bear case is that CBOE earnings are closer to a cyclical peak than investors expect, with lower volatility, fee pressure, regulatory scrutiny, competitive event and prediction products, and a valuation that already prices in the raised outlook.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. research snapshot

CBOE AI Stock Analysis

CBOE AI stock analysis reads Cboe Global Markets, Inc. as a high-quality derivatives, exchange, clearing, and market data operator that just reported a record second quarter. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, CBOE closed at $310.23 on July 31 after a Q2 2026 report that delivered 25 percent net revenue growth, a 50 percent GAAP diluted EPS gain, and a raised 2026 organic growth outlook, giving the stock a market capitalization near $32.40 billion. The price moved back above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but the valuation is no longer cheap, so the page uses scenario ranges instead of a certain stock price prediction. This is informational research and not investment advice.

Current price

$310.23

Market cap

$32.40 billion

AI score

75 / 100

Rating

High-quality exchange and market data operator, momentum improving, valuation full

Trend status

Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a strong Q2 earnings rally, with RSI near 66

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. Cboe has long public filings, quarterly releases, audited annual data, detailed segment metrics, trading volume disclosures, market data disclosures, and multiple third-party quote and financial datasets.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is extrapolating a record Q2 2026 and a raised outlook into a durable trend while under-weighting volatility cycle risk, pricing pressure, regulatory scrutiny, event product competition, data fee politics, and a valuation that has already moved higher.
ai Confidence: High for current price, market cap math, share count, Q2 2026 company disclosures, segment revenue, EPS, cash, and debt. Medium for technical levels and forward returns because volume and volatility regimes can shift quickly.
investment Certainty: Medium. Cboe is a durable franchise that is easier to underwrite than many financial technology stocks, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because market volumes, volatility, regulation, and the earnings multiple can change the outcome.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	Cboe operates options, futures, equities, FX, clearing, and market data businesses, with proprietary index options and Data Vantage providing the most attractive economics.	High
Moat	Moat comes from licensed index products, options liquidity network effects, trusted market infrastructure, regulatory licenses, data products, and customer workflow integration.	High
Management	Craig Donohue and Jill Griebenow raised 2026 organic growth targets after a record quarter while pushing event contracts, Cboe Clear U.S., around-the-clock access, and expense discipline.	Medium-high
Financial trend	Q2 2026 net revenue rose 25 percent to a record $731.6 million, GAAP diluted EPS rose 50 percent to $3.35, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 45 percent to $3.56.	High
Valuation	At $310.23, CBOE traded near 24.2x trailing EPS, 21.5x forward EPS, 6.4x sales, and 17.3x free cash flow, close to the $314 average analyst target.	High
Technical trend	The stock closed above its 50-day average near $284.32 and 200-day average near $278.96 after the earnings rally, with RSI near 66 and the 52-week high of $371.18 still overhead.	Medium-high
Risk level	Main risks are lower volatility, lower trading volumes, regulatory fee pressure, data pricing scrutiny, competitive event products, and execution risk in clearing and new growth areas.	Medium-high
AI confidence	High for historical facts, filings, and math. Medium for forward returns because CBOE depends on volume, volatility, regulatory paths, and the earnings multiple.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Medium certainty. CBOE is a quality market-structure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction.	Medium

CBOE AI stock forecast

CBOE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The CBOE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $310.23 quote and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $13.98. A three-year framework using EPS growth of 9 percent, 6 percent, and 0 percent with exit multiples of 24x, 19x, and 14x produced a bullish value near $434, a base value near $316, and a bearish value near $196 before any share count change. The base case sits close to the analyst average target of $314, which shows that upside now depends on earnings compounding and the market holding a premium multiple on the exchange franchise.

Bullish case

$410 to $450

More likely if index options volumes stay elevated, Data Vantage grows at a low-teens rate, event contracts and Cboe Clear U.S. gain traction, around-the-clock access expands, and Cboe keeps expense discipline.

Base case

$300 to $335

More likely if volumes normalize from record levels, organic net revenue grows in the mid to high teens as guided for 2026, margins stay healthy, and the market values CBOE near a high-teens to low-twenties earnings multiple.

Bearish case

$185 to $210

More likely if volatility falls sharply, index options activity slows, regulators pressure market data or transaction economics, competitors take share in event or prediction-style products, or the valuation multiple compresses.

CBOE AI technical analysis

CBOE AI Technical Analysis

CBOE AI technical analysis turned constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $310.23 on July 31, 2026, above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 66.13, a 9-day ADX near 32 confirming the new trend, and a 52-week high of $371.18 still overhead.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$310.23	July 31, 2026 closing price after the Q2 2026 earnings report, up 4.62 percent on the day.
Near support	$295 to $300	The $296 area matches the 100-day moving average and the breakout zone from the early July pullback.
Key support	$279 to $285	The 20-day moving average was near $279.52 and the 50-day near $284.32, forming the main support cluster.
50-day moving average	$284.32	StockAnalysis and Barchart reported the same 50-day moving average snapshot near $284.32.
200-day moving average	$278.96	StockAnalysis and Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $278.96, now below the current price.
Near resistance	$320 to $335	The first overhead zone sits between the round $320 level and the $330 to $335 area from prior supply.
Major resistance	$350 to $372	The 52-week high of $371.18 is the largest repair target, with the $350 area as an intermediate hurdle.
Momentum	RSI 66.13, 9-day ADX near 32	14-day RSI was near 66.13, strong but not overbought, and the short-term ADX near 32 confirmed a fresh directional move.
Volume	About 1.1 million average shares	StockAnalysis listed 20-day average volume near 1.05 million and Barchart near 1.18 million, useful for judging breakout quality.
Volatility	Beta 0.41, 14-day historic volatility near 34%	CBOE has low market beta, but 14-day historic volatility near 34 percent means earnings and headline days can still move the stock.
Invalidation	Close below $284, then $279	A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the fresh uptrend. A close below the 200-day average would signal that the rally failed.

CBOE AI trading strategy

CBOE AI Trading Strategy Framework

The CBOE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a market-structure, exchange, and financial data stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, volume statistics, and a defined invalidation level.

Trend-following setup

Watch for CBOE to hold above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $279 to $284 and to build volume on a move toward the $320 to $335 resistance zone, with the 200-day trend line still rising.

A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $284 or a failed attempt at the $320 area should trigger a stop and review of the setup.

Mean-reversion setup

If CBOE pulls back toward the $295 to $300 support band without a thesis break, compare the price reaction with index options volume, VIX activity, Data Vantage growth, RPC trends, and guidance for the rest of 2026.

Do not treat the low 0.41 beta as a substitute for a stop, because exchange operators can rerate quickly when volume, regulation, or competition expectations change.

Fundamental monitor

Track derivatives net revenue, Data Vantage growth, options market share, index options activity, event contract volumes, Cboe Clear U.S. progress, net cash, buybacks, dividends, and adjusted operating expense guidance.

Reduce confidence if growth depends on a temporary volatility spike while recurring data growth, pricing power, or market share weaken.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Cboe helps investors, brokers, market makers, institutions, and issuers trade, hedge, clear, and access market data across options, futures, equities, FX, and proprietary index products, charging transaction fees plus recurring access and market data fees.

Moat

The moat is built from proprietary index licenses, deep options liquidity, trusted market operations, regulatory permissions, data products, customer connectivity, and the cost of moving order flow away from established venues.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if volatility normalizes sharply, competitors win new event or prediction products, regulators pressure fees or data economics, data pricing loses power, or Cboe invests in growth areas without enough returns.

Management

Management raised 2026 organic total net revenue growth guidance to mid to high teens after a record first half while executing a strategic realignment, launching Cboe Predicts, growing Cboe Clear U.S., and returning capital through dividends and buybacks.

Industry trend

Cboe sits inside long-running demand for derivatives, index hedging, volatility tools, electronic trading, market data, clearing, event contracts, prediction markets, and 24-hour global access to U.S. risk assets.

Valuation and margin of safety

The stock no longer trades as a cheap exchange name. At about 21.5x forward EPS and 17.3x free cash flow, margin of safety depends on whether index options volume, Data Vantage, and new growth areas can sustain the raised outlook.

Source-backed data

CBOE Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
CBOE price	$310.23 at the July 31, 2026 close	StockAnalysis quote and statistics page	July 31, 2026
Market capitalization	$32.40 billion, verified as $310.23 x 104.43 million shares	financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis	August 2, 2026
Q2 2026 net revenue	$731.6 million, up 25 percent, a record	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results	July 31, 2026
Q2 2026 EPS	$3.35 GAAP diluted EPS up 50%, $3.56 adjusted diluted EPS up 45%	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results	July 31, 2026
First half 2026 results	Net revenue $1,460.5 million up 27%, diluted EPS $7.01, adjusted diluted EPS $7.26	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results	July 31, 2026
Q2 2026 segment mix	Options $473.9M up 30%, North American Equities $114.7M up 17%, Europe and Asia Pacific $84.8M up 20%, Futures $30.6M up 2%, Global FX $27.6M up 17%	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results	July 31, 2026
Data Vantage revenue	$177.8 million, up 15 percent year over year	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results	July 31, 2026
FY2025 revenue and net income	$4.714 billion revenue up 15%, $1.095 billion net income	Cboe 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cross-check	July 31, 2026
Cash and debt	$2,276.2 million cash and $1,443.8 million total debt at June 30, 2026	Cboe Q2 2026 balance sheet	June 30, 2026
Net cash	$832.4 million, calculated as cash minus total debt at June 30, 2026	financial_rigor.py exact calculator	June 30, 2026
2026 guidance	Organic total net revenue growth raised to mid to high teens, Data Vantage to low teens, adjusted operating expenses reaffirmed at $838 to $853 million	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results guidance	July 31, 2026
Valuation ratios	24.18x TTM PE, 21.46x forward PE, 6.40x sales, 17.28x price to free cash flow, 0.93% dividend yield	StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check	July 31, 2026
Enterprise valuation	EV/EBITDA 16.38, EV/EBIT 17.37, EV/FCF 16.87, PEG 1.09, PB 5.77	StockAnalysis statistics enterprise valuation	July 31, 2026
Analyst consensus	Hold with an average target of $314 across 17 analysts, low $258 and high $380, median $312	StockAnalysis forecast and analyst ratings	July 31, 2026
Analyst rating mix, July 2026	1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell of 17	StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends	July 31, 2026
Recent analyst target updates	J.P. Morgan $288 Sell, TD Cowen $304 Hold, Barclays $347 Buy, Goldman Sachs $287 Sell, Piper Sandler $320 Overweight, Morgan Stanley $258 Underweight	StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts, TipRanks	July 31, 2026
FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates	FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate $13.98, FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate $15.02	StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast	July 31, 2026
Short interest	2.55 million shares short, 2.44% of shares outstanding, 2.87 days to cover	StockAnalysis statistics short selling	July 31, 2026
Technical snapshot	50-day SMA near $284.32, 200-day SMA near $278.96, RSI 66.13, beta 0.41, 52-week range $227.15 to $371.18	StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis	July 31, 2026
Q2 2026 capital returns	$75.7 million in cash dividends plus $32.6 million in buybacks, about $108.3 million returned to shareholders, with about $536.8 million remaining in buyback authorization	Cboe Q2 2026 financial results	July 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

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This CBOE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, valuation assumptions, and technical snapshots as of the data cutoff, and they may be wrong.