Bullish case
$325 to $350
More likely if index options volumes stay elevated, Data Vantage grows at a low-double-digit rate, event markets and clearing investments gain traction, and Cboe keeps strong expense discipline.
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. research snapshot
CBOE AI Stock Analysis
CBOE AI stock analysis currently reads Cboe Global Markets, Inc. as a high-quality exchange operator with strong proprietary index options, recurring market data economics, global cash equities exposure, and a balance sheet with net cash. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, CBOE closed at $258.64 on July 7 with a market capitalization near $27.07 billion. The business has durable franchise traits, but the stock trades below key moving averages and depends on trading activity, volatility, regulation, and competition, so this page uses scenario ranges rather than a certain stock price prediction. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$258.64
Market cap
$27.07 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality exchange and market data operator, valuation balanced
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day averages after a sharp pullback, with neutral RSI
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Cboe has long public filings, quarterly releases, audited annual data, detailed segment metrics, trading volume disclosures, market data disclosures, and multiple third-party quote and financial datasets.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting the obvious index-options franchise and record Q1 2026 results while under-weighting volatility cycle risk, pricing pressure, regulatory scrutiny, perpetual futures competition, data fee politics, and valuation sensitivity.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, share count, revenue, net income, EPS, cash, debt, and Q1 2026 company disclosures. Medium for technical levels because static pages can age quickly when a stock is moving below major averages.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Cboe is easier to underwrite than many financial technology stocks, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because market volumes, volatility regimes, and regulatory outcomes can shift quickly.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cboe operates options, futures, equities, FX, clearing, and market data businesses, with proprietary index options and Data Vantage providing attractive economics. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from licensed index products, liquidity network effects, trusted market infrastructure, regulatory licenses, data products, and customer workflow integration. | High |
| Management | Craig Donohue and Jill Griebenow are leaning into index options, data, event markets, tokenization, and clearing while also cutting headcount to redirect resources. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net revenue rose 29% year over year to $728.9 million, diluted EPS rose 54% to $3.66, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 48% to $3.70. | High |
| Valuation | At $258.64, CBOE traded near 22.1x TTM EPS, 18.8x forward EPS, 5.7x sales, and 9.9x free cash flow per share. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day average near $304.16 and 200-day average near $275.21, with RSI near 43.45, so the chart is in repair mode. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower volatility, lower trading volumes, regulatory fee pressure, competitive perpetual products, data pricing scrutiny, and execution risk in new growth areas. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical facts and math. Medium for forward returns because CBOE depends on volume, volatility, regulatory paths, and the earnings multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. CBOE is a quality market-structure franchise, but this page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
CBOE AI stock forecast
CBOE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CBOE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $258.64 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $11.71 produced a bullish value near $342.90, a base value near $251.00, and a bearish value near $154.30 before any share count change. These outputs show that upside depends on both earnings durability and the market keeping a premium multiple on the exchange franchise.
Base case
$240 to $265
More likely if volumes normalize from record levels, revenue grows in the mid to high single digits after Q1 strength, margins remain healthy, and the market values CBOE near a high-teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$145 to $165
More likely if volatility falls, proprietary index options activity slows, regulators pressure market data or transaction economics, and competitors take share in event or perpetual-style products.
CBOE AI technical analysis
CBOE AI Technical Analysis
CBOE AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed CBOE at $258.64 at the July 7 close, below the 50-day moving average near $304.16 and below the 200-day moving average near $275.21, with RSI near 43.45.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $258.64 | July 7, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near support | $245 to $260 | This zone includes the recent close and the prior $245.08 close on July 6, so it is the first area to monitor for buyer defense. |
| Secondary support | $230 to $240 | A break below the near support zone would shift attention to the next lower consolidation area rather than the long-term average. |
| Near resistance | $275 to $280 | The 200-day moving average near $275.21 is the first key repair level for the chart. |
| Major resistance | $300 to $305 | The 50-day moving average near $304.16 is the larger trend reference that buyers need to reclaim. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.45 | RSI was neutral to soft, so the setup needs follow-through rather than assuming a durable reversal. |
| Volume | About 1.83 million shares | The 20-day average volume gives a liquidity reference for judging whether a rebound or breakdown has sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.44 | CBOE has shown lower market beta, but company-specific volume, volatility, and regulatory headlines can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $245, then $230 | A close below $245 would weaken the short-term recovery attempt. A close below $230 would signal that the post-Q1 rerating has failed. |
CBOE AI trading strategy
CBOE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CBOE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a market-structure, exchange, and financial data stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, volatility data, and a defined invalidation level.
Trend-following setup
Watch for CBOE to hold the $245 to $260 support band, reclaim the 200-day average near $275, then rebuild above the 50-day average near $304 with improving volume.
A close below $245 or a failed reclaim of the 200-day average after the July 31 earnings report should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CBOE pulls back without a thesis break, compare the price move with index options volume, VIX activity, Data Vantage growth, RPC trends, and guidance for organic net revenue.
Do not treat lower-beta history as a substitute for a stop because exchange operators can rerate when volume, regulation, or competition expectations change.
Fundamental monitor
Track derivatives net revenue, Data Vantage growth, cash and spot markets net revenue, total options RPC, index options activity, net cash, buybacks, dividends, and expense guidance.
Reduce confidence if growth is concentrated in temporary volatility spikes while recurring data growth, pricing power, or market share weaken.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Cboe helps investors, brokers, market makers, institutions, and issuers trade, hedge, clear, and access market data across options, futures, equities, FX, and proprietary index products.
Moat
The moat is built from proprietary index licenses, deep options liquidity, trusted market operations, regulatory permissions, data products, customer connectivity, and the cost of moving order flow away from established venues.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if volatility normalizes sharply, competitors win new event or perpetual products, regulators pressure fees, data pricing loses power, or Cboe invests in growth areas without enough returns.
Management
Management has raised growth targets after record Q1 results while realigning staff and redirecting resources toward event markets, tokenization, clearing, and data. The next test is execution without damaging core service quality.
Industry trend
Cboe sits inside long-running demand for derivatives, index hedging, volatility tools, electronic trading, market data, clearing, and 24-hour global access to U.S. risk assets.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current price is less demanding than many financial data peers, but margin of safety still depends on volumes, volatility, and Cboe keeping a premium multiple through cycles.
Source-backed data
CBOE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE price | $258.64 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote and statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $27.07 billion, verified as $258.64 x 104.65 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net revenue | $728.9 million, up 29% year over year | Cboe Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | $3.66 diluted EPS and $3.70 adjusted diluted EPS, up 54% and 48% | Cboe Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and segment mix | $4.714 billion total revenue; Options $2.434 billion, North American Equities $1.672 billion, Europe and Asia Pacific $378.6 million | Cboe 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenues less cost of revenues | $2.429 billion, with Derivatives markets $1.341 billion and Data Vantage $622.9 million | Cboe 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.134 billion cash and $1.443 billion debt at March 31, 2026, before lease and other liability definitions | Cboe Q1 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 22.09x TTM PE, 18.84x forward PE, 5.65x sales, 9.94x price to free cash flow, and 1.11% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $304.16, 200-day average $275.21, RSI 43.45, beta 0.44 | StockAnalysis stock price statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| June 2026 volume and capture update | Cboe provided June 2026 trading volume statistics and 2Q revenue capture guidance across options, futures, equities, FX, and clearing | Cboe June 2026 trading volume release | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Read the CCL AI stock analysisCompare COF AI stock analysisView BAC AI stock forecastExplore BNY AI technical analysisOpen the AI Stock PickerBuild a trading strategy
This CBOE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, valuation assumptions, and technical snapshots as of the data cutoff, and they may be wrong.