Henry Schein, Inc. research snapshot
HSIC AI stock analysis currently reads Henry Schein as a scaled healthcare distribution and technology services company whose 2026 story now turns on a new CEO, a leadership restructuring, and a debt-funded earnings recovery. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, HSIC closed near $85.75 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $9.77 billion, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $1.32 beat the prior-year quarter, 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, and analysts moved price targets higher, but the leadership transition and a debt load near $3.7 billion keep execution risk in view. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$85.75
Market cap
$9.77 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Constructive quality distributor in a leadership transition with debt and margin risk
Trend status
Constructive technical trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Henry Schein converts dental and medical product distribution, value-added services, practice technology, and specialty logistics into recurring customer relationships across more than 1 million customers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale purchasing, broad SKU availability, field sales relationships, software workflows, financing and equipment support, and specialty supply-chain know-how. Pricing power is real but limited by competitive distribution markets. | Medium |
| Management | Fred Lowery became CEO on March 2, 2026 and William Daniel became Independent Chairman in May 2026, replacing decades-long leader Stanley Bergman. The COO, Chief Strategy Officer, and SVP of Global Supply Chain step into advisory roles on October 30, 2026, so the team is unproven at scale. | Medium-low |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $13.184 billion and net income attributable to Henry Schein was $398 million. Q1 2026 net sales rose 6.3% to about $3.4 billion with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.32, and the company reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $85.75, HSIC traded near 25.95x trailing GAAP EPS but near 16x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.30, with a 3.00x price-to-book, a 21.95x price-to-free-cash-flow, and a 4.56% FCF yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical sources placed HSIC above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with TradingView showing a neutral daily summary, a weekly buy, and a monthly strong buy, and resistance near the 52-week high of $89.34. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are leadership transition execution, dental procedure demand, medical distribution margin pressure, supplier and customer consolidation, cybersecurity, a debt load near $3.7 billion, acquisition integration, and foreign exchange. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculations. Lower for exact return outcomes because small changes in dental demand, margin mix, leadership execution, interest rates, and valuation multiple can move the stock materially. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business has durable distribution advantages, but a buy decision depends on normalized EPS quality, cash conversion, debt paydown, and a margin of safety against leadership transition and demand-cycle risk. | Medium |
HSIC AI stock forecast
The HSIC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $85.75 quote and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of about $5.30. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $58, a base area near $89, and a bullish area near $120 before any capital returns. The wide range reflects the gap between trailing GAAP earnings and management normalized earnings guidance, plus the uncertainty of a leadership transition.
$112 to $124
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 8% annually, dental and technology demand strengthens, value creation delivers the targeted operating income improvement, restructuring benefits show up in margins, leverage falls, and the market values earnings near 18x.
$84 to $94
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 4% annually, distribution margins stabilize, cash conversion funds debt reduction, the leadership transition executes smoothly, and investors value HSIC near 15x normalized earnings.
$48 to $58
More likely if dental demand weakens, medical distribution price pressure persists, leadership changes disrupt execution or customer relationships, debt limits buybacks, and the market values earnings near 11x.
HSIC AI technical analysis
HSIC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 31, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $85.75, above the 50-day moving average near $81.80 and the 200-day moving average near $76.27, while TradingView showed a neutral daily technical summary with a weekly buy and a monthly strong buy reading. Technical levels should be refreshed with live chart data before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $85.75 | July 31, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math at the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $81.80 to $84.40 | The 50-day moving average and recent pullback zone form the first support band to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $76.27, then $72 to $74 | The 200-day moving average is the deeper trend reference. A break would weaken the broader setup. |
| Near resistance | $87.50 to $89.34 | The 52-week high near $89.34 sits just above recent action, so follow-through above the high $80s matters for momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | About $81.80 | Price was above this intermediate trend gauge, supporting the current recovery trend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $76.27 | Price was above this long-term trend gauge, keeping the broader chart constructive unless the level breaks. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56; daily neutral, weekly buy, monthly strong buy | TradingView summarized HSIC as a daily neutral with stronger weekly and monthly readings at the cutoff. RSI sits near 56. |
| Volume | About 1.3 million average daily shares | Breakouts should be judged against average volume because low-volume moves can fade quickly. |
| Volatility | Low beta of about 0.81 with earnings-driven moves | HSIC volatility can rise around the August 4, 2026 earnings release, dental demand updates, leadership changes, and acquisition integration news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $81.80, then $76.27 | A close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day moving average would be a deeper trend warning. |
HSIC AI trading strategy
The HSIC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a healthcare distributor in a leadership transition with scale advantages, earnings recovery potential, and execution risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for HSIC to hold above the 50-day moving average near $81.80 and clear the $87.50 to $89.34 resistance band with volume confirmation, no negative earnings revision, and no disruptive leadership news.
A close below about $81.80 or a failed breakout after the August 4, 2026 earnings release should invalidate the short-term setup.
If HSIC pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $81.80 or the 200-day moving average near $76.27 without a new demand, margin, debt, or leadership shock, compare the reaction with adjusted EPS guidance, cash flow, and debt reduction.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because distributor margins and valuation multiples can compress quickly after guidance cuts or leadership disruption.
Track dental sales growth, medical sales growth, technology and value-added services, non-GAAP EPS against the $5.23 to $5.37 guidance, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, debt, buybacks, value creation run-rate, and execution of the new leadership structure.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth relies mainly on multiple expansion instead of sales growth, margin repair, cash conversion, and balance-sheet improvement.
Investment research summary
Henry Schein helps dental practices, medical offices, laboratories, and specialty care providers buy products, equipment, software, and services from one scaled distributor. Customers pay for availability, procurement convenience, practice workflow support, and trusted service, which keeps demand recurring even when individual orders are small.
The moat is strongest in purchasing scale, catalog breadth, salesforce relationships, equipment support, software ties, financing, and specialty distribution know-how. It narrows when competitors match service levels, customers consolidate purchasing, or manufacturers pressure distributor economics.
The thesis fails if dental demand slows, management cannot convert sales growth into margin recovery, the leadership transition disrupts execution or customer relationships, debt stays high, acquisitions disappoint, or healthcare customers shift more volume to lower-cost channels.
Fred Lowery became CEO in March 2026 after a long Thermo Fisher career, and William Daniel became Independent Chairman in May 2026, while Stanley Bergman retired after more than 40 years. The COO, Chief Strategy Officer, and SVP of Global Supply Chain move to advisory roles on October 30, 2026, so the management test is execution under a new structure rather than proven track record.
Healthcare distribution benefits from aging populations, dental procedure demand, specialty care, practice digitization, and outsourced supply-chain needs. The sector is not a frictionless software market, so margin and working-capital discipline matter as much as revenue growth.
HSIC looks more reasonable on 2026 adjusted EPS than on trailing GAAP EPS, trading near 16x the $5.30 guidance midpoint. Margin of safety depends on whether adjusted earnings convert to free cash flow, debt comes down, the leadership transition executes, and the market continues to value Henry Schein as a quality distributor rather than a low-margin middleman.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSIC price | $85.75 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.77 billion, verified as $85.75 x 113.92 million shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 113.92 million shares | StockAnalysis share statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $13.184 billion | Henry Schein FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Henry Schein | $398 million | Henry Schein FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 31, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales and non-GAAP EPS | About $3.4 billion net sales up 6.3% and $1.32 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Henry Schein Q1 2026 press release attached to Form 8-K | July 31, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS outlook | $5.23 to $5.37 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance, reaffirmed | Henry Schein Q1 2026 press release attached to Form 8-K | July 31, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $138 million cash and cash equivalents; $3.408 billion company debt table, with $3.749 billion third-party total debt including lease liabilities | Henry Schein Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow and buybacks | Operating cash flow of $712 million less about $191 million of capital spending and software costs, with $850 million of share repurchases | Henry Schein FY2025 Form 10-K cash flow statement | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 25.95x GAAP TTM PE, forward PE of 15.71x, 3.00x book value, 21.95x P/FCF, 13.67x EV/EBITDA, and 4.56% FCF yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 17 analysts with an average price target of $89, a low of $64, and a high of $100 | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Leadership changes | Fred Lowery named CEO effective March 2, 2026; William Daniel elected Independent Chairman in May 2026; COO, Chief Strategy Officer, and SVP Global Supply Chain to become senior advisors on October 30, 2026 | Henry Schein Form 8-K filings dated January 12, 2026, May 22, 2026, and July 30, 2026 | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price above the 50-day moving average near $81.80 and the 200-day moving average near $76.27; RSI near 56; TradingView daily neutral, weekly buy, monthly strong buy | TradingView and StockAnalysis technical data | July 31, 2026 |
This HSIC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 31, 2026 and may be wrong if Henry Schein fundamentals, leadership transition execution, dental demand, distribution margins, debt, acquisitions, interest rates, regulation, or market valuation change.
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