Henry Schein, Inc. research snapshot
HSIC AI stock analysis currently reads Henry Schein as a scaled healthcare distribution and technology services company with durable dental and medical customer relationships, improving 2026 earnings expectations, and a balance sheet that still requires debt discipline. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, HSIC traded near $86.84 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $9.87 billion. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$86.84
Market cap
$9.87 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality healthcare distributor with cyber recovery and leverage risk
Trend status
Constructive technical trend above major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Henry Schein converts dental and medical product distribution, value-added services, practice technology, and specialty logistics into recurring customer relationships. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale purchasing, broad SKU availability, field sales relationships, software workflows, financing and equipment support, and specialty supply-chain knowledge. Pricing power is real but limited by competitive distribution markets. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Stanley Bergman has led the company for decades, giving strategic continuity, while the key test is execution on restructuring, cyber recovery, capital allocation, and leverage control. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $13.184 billion and net income attributable to Henry Schein was $398 million. Q1 2026 sales rose 9.7% to $3.32 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15. | High |
| Valuation | At $86.84, HSIC traded near 26.24x TTM GAAP EPS, 3.04x book value, and 23.34x free cash flow per share from audited inputs, while the scenario model uses 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint as normalized earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical sources showed HSIC above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with TradingView flagging a strong buy technical summary and nearby resistance in the high $80s. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are dental procedure demand, medical distribution margin pressure, supplier and customer consolidation, cybersecurity, debt burden, acquisition integration, and slower technology adoption. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculations. Lower for exact return outcomes because small changes in dental demand, margin mix, interest rates, and valuation multiple can move the stock materially. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business has durable distribution advantages, but a buy decision depends on normalized EPS quality, cash conversion, debt paydown, and a margin of safety against execution risk. | Medium |
HSIC AI stock forecast
The HSIC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $86.84 quote and the company 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint of about $5.30. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $53, a base area near $89, and a bullish area near $120 before any capital returns. The wide range reflects the gap between GAAP trailing earnings and management normalized earnings guidance.
$112 to $124
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 8% annually, dental and specialty demand improves, technology revenue contributes more recurring margin, restructuring benefits show up in operating income, leverage falls, and the market values earnings near 18x.
$84 to $94
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 4% annually, distribution margins stabilize, cash conversion funds debt reduction, and investors value HSIC near 15x normalized earnings.
$48 to $58
More likely if dental demand weakens, medical distribution price pressure persists, cyber or technology execution costs rise, debt limits buybacks, and the market values earnings near 11x.
HSIC AI technical analysis
HSIC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. TradingView showed a daily strong buy technical summary, while Investing.com and StockAnalysis snapshots placed HSIC above key moving averages. Technical levels should be refreshed with live chart data before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $86.84 | July 8, 2026 quote used for market cap and valuation math at the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $84.99 to $86.00 | The 50-day moving average and nearby pivot area form the first support band to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $79 to $80 | The 200-day moving average area is the deeper trend reference. A break would weaken the broader setup. |
| Near resistance | $87.50 to $90.00 | Recent quote action sits near the upper short-term band, so follow-through above the high $80s matters for momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | About $84.99 | Price was above this intermediate trend gauge, supporting the current recovery trend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $79.90 | Price was above this long-term trend gauge, keeping the broader chart constructive unless the level breaks. |
| Momentum | Daily strong buy technical summary | TradingView summarized HSIC as strong buy at the cutoff, but this is a technical signal rather than a forecast. |
| Volume | About 1.4 million average daily shares | Breakouts should be judged against average volume because low-volume moves can fade quickly. |
| Volatility | Healthcare distribution and earnings-cycle driven | HSIC volatility can rise around earnings, dental demand updates, cybersecurity disclosures, and acquisition integration news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $85, then $80 | A close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day moving average would be a deeper trend warning. |
HSIC AI trading strategy
The HSIC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a healthcare distributor with scale advantages, earnings recovery potential, and execution risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for HSIC to hold above the 50-day moving average near $85 and clear the $87.50 to $90 resistance band with volume confirmation and no negative earnings revision.
A close below about $85 or a failed breakout after earnings should invalidate the short-term setup.
If HSIC pulls back toward the 200-day moving average near $80 without a new demand, margin, debt, or cybersecurity shock, compare the reaction with adjusted EPS guidance, cash flow, and debt reduction.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because distributor margins and valuation multiples can compress quickly after guidance cuts.
Track dental sales growth, medical sales growth, technology and value-added services, adjusted operating margin, free cash flow, debt, acquisition integration, cybersecurity spending, and management guidance.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth relies mainly on multiple expansion instead of sales growth, margin repair, cash conversion, and balance-sheet improvement.
Investment research summary
Henry Schein helps dental practices, medical offices, laboratories, and specialty care providers buy products, equipment, software, and services from one scaled distributor. Customers pay for availability, procurement convenience, practice workflow support, and trusted service.
The moat is strongest in purchasing scale, catalog breadth, salesforce relationships, equipment support, software ties, financing, and specialty distribution know-how. It narrows when competitors match service levels, customers consolidate purchasing, or manufacturers pressure distributor economics.
The thesis fails if dental demand slows, management cannot convert sales growth into margin recovery, cybersecurity issues recur, debt stays high, acquisitions disappoint, or healthcare customers shift more volume to lower-cost channels.
Stanley Bergman has provided long-term continuity and an acquisition-led expansion mindset. The current management test is disciplined capital allocation, post-cyber operational recovery, technology execution, and debt reduction rather than growth for its own sake.
Healthcare distribution benefits from aging populations, dental procedure demand, specialty care, practice digitization, and outsourced supply-chain needs. The sector is not a frictionless software market, so margin and working-capital discipline matter as much as revenue growth.
HSIC looks more reasonable on 2026 adjusted EPS than on trailing GAAP EPS. Margin of safety depends on whether adjusted earnings convert to free cash flow, debt comes down, and the market continues to value Henry Schein as a quality distributor rather than a low-margin middleman.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSIC price | $86.84 reference quote on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.87 billion, verified as $86.84 x 113.92 million shares with 0.23% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 113.92 million shares | MarketWatch market data cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $13.184 billion | Henry Schein FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Henry Schein | $398 million | Henry Schein FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales and adjusted EPS | $3.32 billion net sales and $1.15 adjusted diluted EPS | Henry Schein Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS outlook | $5.23 to $5.37 adjusted diluted EPS guidance | Henry Schein Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $138 million cash and cash equivalents; $3.408 billion company debt table, with $3.749 billion third-party total debt including lease liabilities | Henry Schein Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 26.24x GAAP TTM PE, 3.04x book value, 23.34x P/FCF, and 4.28% FCF yield from audited inputs | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Daily strong buy technical summary, price above 50-day and 200-day moving averages | TradingView and Investing.com technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This HSIC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if Henry Schein fundamentals, dental demand, distribution margins, cybersecurity costs, debt, acquisitions, interest rates, regulation, or market valuation change.
