Bullish case
$245 to $270
More likely if New BD sustains low to mid single-digit revenue growth, expands margins through BD Excellence, uses Waters proceeds for debt reduction and buybacks, and avoids major product or litigation setbacks.
Becton, Dickinson and Company research snapshot
BDX AI Stock Analysis
BDX AI stock analysis reads Becton, Dickinson and Company as a focused medtech value story with improving execution after the Waters transaction. Q2 FY2026 revenue from continuing operations rose 2.6% on a currency-neutral basis to $4.714 billion, adjusted diluted EPS reached $2.90, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $12.52 to $12.72. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, BDX traded near $165.62 with a verified market capitalization near $45.64 billion and a forward multiple near 13x, while the stock sat above its 50-day average but below the 200-day average. The case still depends on post-separation execution, margins, free cash flow, leverage, litigation, and a July 31 product recall, so this page frames BDX as a scenario-based research candidate rather than a buy or sell call.
Current price
$165.62
Market cap
$45.64 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Improving execution, discounted multiple, technical watch
Trend status
July rebound above the 50-day average, still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. BD has long public filings, investor releases, SEC reports, sell-side coverage, technical data feeds, and third-party financial databases.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is repeating the defensive medtech narrative while underweighting the February 2026 portfolio reset, the July 31 recall on intraosseous needle sets, leverage, tariff and grant pressure, litigation, and slower growth versus higher-quality device peers. The reverse check asks why the stock still trades below its 200-day average despite the raised guidance.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported FY2025 revenue and EPS, Q2 FY2026 results, share count, market cap math, balance sheet snapshots, and analyst consensus. Medium for forward valuation because New BD margins, portfolio mix, recall impact, and procedure volumes can change after the Waters transaction.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. BD sells essential healthcare tools and has a long operating history, but investment certainty is limited by leverage, portfolio transition, the product recall, a below-200-day technical posture, and the need to prove faster organic growth.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BD sells essential medical supplies, medication management systems, interventional devices, and biopharma systems used by hospitals, labs, drugmakers, and clinicians. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated products, installed hospital workflows, manufacturing scale, clinical reliability, distribution reach, and switching costs in medication and procedure systems. | Medium-high |
| Management | Tom Polen led the BD 2025 portfolio reset and Waters transaction, and Vitor Roque was named CFO in May 2026. The next test is whether New BD can convert focus into higher organic growth, margins, and cash returns. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $21.84 billion and adjusted EPS was $14.40. Q2 FY2026 revenue from continuing operations was $4.714 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.90, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $12.52 to $12.72. | High |
| Valuation | At $165.62, the stock traded near 13.1x the raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, 1.89x book value, and 14.9x free cash flow per share, with a 2.54% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | BDX rebounded above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages in late July, but it remains below the StockAnalysis 200-day moving average near $172, so the longer-term downtrend is not yet repaired. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include weak medtech growth, the July 2026 product recall, litigation, tariffs, research grant exposure, leverage, and execution risk after the Waters transaction. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and data are rich. Return confidence is lower because multiple expansion depends on evidence that New BD can grow faster. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames BDX as a scenario-based research candidate, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
BDX AI stock forecast
BDX AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The BDX AI stock forecast uses scenario math, not a precise prediction. Using the $12.62 midpoint of raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance and the July 31, 2026 close near $165.62, the audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $134, a base area near $195, and a bullish area near $260 before dividends, using EPS growth of 2%, 6%, and 9% and exit multiples of 10x, 13x, and 16x.
Base case
$185 to $205
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 6% and the market keeps BDX near a low-teens earnings multiple while waiting for proof of stronger organic growth and post-recall recovery.
Bearish case
$125 to $145
More likely if procedure demand slows, the recall or tariffs press margins, legal costs rise, debt reduction stalls, or investors assign a single-digit earnings multiple.
BDX AI technical analysis
BDX AI Technical Analysis
BDX AI technical analysis is mixed but improved as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $165.62 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $157 and its 50-day moving average near $151.65, with 14-day RSI near 64. It remains below the StockAnalysis 200-day moving average near $171.91, so the longer-term trend is still unresolved and the Q3 FY2026 earnings report on August 6, 2026 is a key test.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $165.62 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $165.62, up about 5.9% over the prior five sessions. |
| Immediate support | $156 to $158 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $156.91, a natural first support cluster for the rebound. |
| Support cluster | $151 to $153 | The 50-day moving average near $151.65 and the 100-day moving average near $152.53 form a wider support zone. |
| 52-week low | $140.11 | A move back toward this level would mark a failed recovery and a renewed downtrend. |
| Near resistance | $166 to $172 | The stock is testing recent highs near $166, with the StockAnalysis 200-day moving average near $171.91 overhead. |
| Long-term resistance | $213.08 | The 52-week high remains well overhead and is not a near-term objective. |
| Momentum | RSI near 64, ADX near 21 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 63.8 and 14-day ADX near 21, firm but not overbought. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.7 million shares | Use this as a benchmark for judging whether a breakout has institutional participation. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 32% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 32% and a 14-day ATR near $4.34, so position sizing should account for earnings swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $156 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average would weaken the near-term recovery framework. |
BDX AI trading strategy
BDX AI Trading Strategy Framework
The BDX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical confirmation, valuation discipline, and monitoring of New BD execution after the Waters transaction, with the Q3 FY2026 report on August 6, 2026 as a major event risk.
Trend-following setup
Watch for BDX to hold above the $156 to $158 support cluster, then reclaim the 200-day moving average area near $172 on volume above the 20-day average.
A close back below $156, or a failed 200-day reclaim after the August 6 earnings report, should invalidate the trend-following setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If BDX pulls back toward support without a guidance cut, compare the price reaction with Q3 FY2026 results, adjusted EPS guidance, debt reduction, recall updates, and legal reserve changes.
Avoid averaging down if price weakness comes with lower organic growth, weaker free cash flow, a new product quality issue, or expanding legal exposure.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q3 FY2026 revenue and adjusted EPS, segment growth, BD Excellence margin progress, cash, total debt, share count after buybacks, the recall, tariffs, litigation, and Waters transition milestones.
Do not treat a low forward P/E as a stop-loss rule. Position sizing should reflect leverage and medtech event risk.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
BD turns medical device engineering, regulated manufacturing, drug delivery, medication management, interventional tools, and biopharma systems into repeat demand from hospitals, clinics, labs, and manufacturers.
Moat
The moat is built on reliability in clinical workflows, installed systems, regulatory approvals, product breadth, manufacturing scale, distribution relationships, and training costs. It is not immune from price pressure or product recalls, as the July 2026 needle set recall shows.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if New BD remains a slow grower, leverage limits flexibility, litigation absorbs cash, hospital customers push back on pricing, or product quality issues such as the recent recall erode trust.
Management
Management completed the Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions combination with Waters, used proceeds for debt retirement and buybacks, and named Vitor Roque CFO in May 2026. The key scorecard is simpler: organic growth, margin expansion, cash conversion, and disciplined capital allocation.
Industry trend
BD sits inside durable healthcare trends: aging populations, hospital automation, chronic disease, infection prevention, drug delivery, and minimally invasive procedures. The category is attractive, but growth is usually gradual rather than explosive.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 13.1x raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, 1.89x book, and 14.9x trailing free cash flow, BDX looks cheaper than many medtech peers. The margin of safety depends on whether the lower multiple reflects temporary transition risk or lasting low growth.
Source-backed data
BDX Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDX closing price | $165.62 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 275.54 million, down 1.30% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $45.64 billion, verified as $165.62 x 275.54 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 revenue | $4.714 billion, up 5.2% as reported and 2.6% currency-neutral | BD Q2 FY2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 EPS | $2.90 adjusted diluted EPS, GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.13) from continuing operations | BD Q2 FY2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 capital actions | $2.0 billion accelerated share repurchase and $2.1 billion debt retired in the quarter | BD Q2 FY2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $12.52 to $12.72, raised from $12.35 to $12.65 | BD Q2 FY2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $21.84 billion, up 8.2% as reported and 2.9% organic on a continuing operations basis | BD FY2025 results release | November 6, 2025 |
| FY2025 EPS | $14.40 adjusted diluted EPS, up 9.6%; GAAP EPS of $5.82 | BD FY2025 results release | November 6, 2025 |
| Waters transaction | BD completed the combination of its Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions business with Waters on February 9, 2026 | BD Q2 FY2026 results release and company communications | May 7, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $816 million cash and $17.28 billion total debt, most recent quarter | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $3.05 billion, or $11.08 per share | StockAnalysis cash flow statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 13.12x FY2026 guidance midpoint, 1.89x book, 14.95x free cash flow per share, 2.54% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $180.25 across 14 analysts, low $161 and high $225, median $175 | StockAnalysis forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell out of 14 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Morgan Stanley initiates Buy $190 and UBS initiates Buy $190 on July 28; Evercore ISI $190 to $180 on July 6; Citi Buy $198 on July 6; BofA $177 to $170 on June 12 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts, TipRanks | July 28, 2026 |
| Short interest | 10.38 million shares short, 3.77% of shares outstanding, 3.74 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $19.21B with adjusted EPS $12.56, FY2027 revenue estimate $19.72B with adjusted EPS $13.46 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $151.65, 200-day SMA near $171.91, RSI near 63.8 | StockAnalysis and Barchart technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This BDX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, guidance changes, product news, recall or legal updates, market moves, or macro conditions.
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