Cardinal Health, Inc. research snapshot
CAH AI stock analysis currently reads Cardinal Health, Inc. as a durable healthcare distribution and services company with strong fiscal 2026 operating momentum, broad exposure to pharmaceutical and specialty demand, and improving cash generation. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, CAH closed at $239.71 on July 7 with a market capitalization near $56.14 billion. The forecast is scenario-based, not a fixed price prediction, because the stock already reflects stronger earnings guidance, share repurchases, and a large move over the last year. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$239.71
Market cap
$56.14 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
Durable healthcare distributor, valuation discipline needed
Trend status
Constructive but extended, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI above 75
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cardinal Health distributes pharmaceuticals, specialty products, medical products, lab products, nuclear pharmacy services, at-home supplies, and logistics services to healthcare customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated scale, distribution density, supplier and customer ties, specialty capabilities, purchasing systems, and the difficulty of replicating a national healthcare logistics network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jason Hollar has led the company since 2022 after serving as CFO, with a focus on portfolio actions, specialty growth, debt reduction, share repurchases, and operating execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $222.578 billion, TTM revenue reached $250.735 billion through March 2026, and Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 11% to $60.9 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $239.71, CAH trades near 36.65x TTM EPS, 13.01x TTM free cash flow, 0.23x TTM sales, and a 0.85% dividend yield using audited tool math. | High |
| Technical trend | The technical trend remains positive, but RSI above 75 and price near recent highs make the setup more extended than early-cycle. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include customer contract loss, reimbursement changes, tariff impact on medical products, generic pricing, acquisition execution, opioid-related liabilities, and working-capital volatility. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are deep. Forward return confidence is lower because margins are thin and the stock has already re-rated. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CAH is a high-utility healthcare infrastructure company, but the current price requires confidence that fiscal 2026 guidance and specialty growth can persist. | Medium |
CAH AI stock forecast
The CAH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $239.71 price reference and fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance near $10.75. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $129, a base area near $249, and a bullish area near $343 before dividends.
$320 to $355
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near double digits, Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions keeps gaining from brand and specialty volume, Other continues to scale, tariff pressure is contained, acquisitions integrate well, and investors keep paying a low-to-mid 20s earnings multiple.
$235 to $260
More likely if fiscal 2026 guidance is achieved, EPS grows at a mid-single-digit rate after the strong reset, share repurchases continue, free cash flow remains healthy, and the market values CAH near 20x forward earnings.
$120 to $140
More likely if contract losses, tariff costs, drug pricing pressure, acquisition issues, or litigation costs pressure earnings and investors re-rate CAH closer to a mid-teens earnings multiple.
CAH AI technical analysis
CAH AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed CAH at $239.71 on July 7, with a 50-day moving average near $209.01, a 200-day moving average near $201.95, and RSI near 75.06. Investing.com and Barchart snapshots also showed short-term and long-term moving-average strength, but the short-term setup is no longer early.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $239.71 | StockAnalysis quote reference from the July 7, 2026 close used as the current price input. |
| Immediate support | $235 to $238 | This area is anchored around short-term moving-average references from Investing.com and Barchart plus the recent close zone. |
| Secondary support | $209 to $215 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average near $209.01, while Investing.com listed a 50-day average above $235. Different vendor snapshots vary, so this is a wider support band. |
| Longer trend support | $201 to $216 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average near $201.95 and Investing.com listed it near $215.58. A break below this broader zone would weaken the trend. |
| Near resistance | $240 to $245 | CAH was trading near recent highs. A sustained move above this zone needs volume confirmation because RSI is already elevated. |
| Moving averages | 5-day about $238.16 to $238.74, 50-day about $209.01 to $235.24, 200-day about $201.95 to $215.58 | Short-term and long-term vendor snapshots are positive overall, but the 50-day estimate differs meaningfully by data provider. |
| Momentum | Positive but overbought | StockAnalysis showed RSI at 75.06, which supports trend strength but also raises pullback risk. |
| Volume and volatility | Watch earnings volume, average volume, and healthcare policy headlines | Average 20-day volume was about 2.55 million shares in the StockAnalysis snapshot. Volatility can rise around earnings, customer-contract news, and drug pricing policy changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $201 | A close below the lower 200-day moving-average reference would argue that the long-term trend has weakened. |
CAH AI trading strategy
The CAH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines healthcare distribution fundamentals, guidance tracking, moving-average context, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for CAH to hold above the $240 to $245 area after earnings or guidance updates, with Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions revenue, adjusted EPS, cash flow, and share repurchases still supporting the move.
A failed breakout back below $235 or a negative guidance change should reduce setup confidence.
If CAH pulls back toward the $209 to $215 support band without a contract, litigation, tariff, or earnings shock, compare the reaction with McKesson, Cencora, healthcare distributors, and the broader healthcare sector.
Do not treat the pullback as routine if the stock closes below the 200-day zone or if margin pressure appears in Pharma, GMPD, or Other.
Track fiscal 2026 EPS guidance, segment profit, specialty growth, branded and generic drug mix, GMPD tariff impact, cash conversion, debt reduction, repurchase pace, and customer concentration.
Position sizing should reflect the thin-margin model, negative book equity, healthcare policy risk, litigation tail risk, and valuation sensitivity after a strong one-year move.
Investment research summary
Cardinal Health is a healthcare supply chain and services company. Customers pay because hospitals, pharmacies, manufacturers, clinics, and home-care channels need reliable product availability, compliance, purchasing scale, and specialized logistics.
The moat is strongest in scale, regulated distribution, supplier access, customer workflows, logistics density, specialty services, and the cost of switching mission-critical healthcare supply chains.
The thesis fails if a large customer leaves, reimbursement or drug pricing rules compress economics, tariffs hit medical products harder than expected, acquisitions underperform, or legal liabilities absorb cash flow.
Jason Hollar moved from CFO to CEO in 2022, giving him direct capital-allocation and balance-sheet context. The current record shows debt reduction, buybacks, portfolio moves, and higher fiscal 2026 guidance, but execution must continue.
Healthcare distribution benefits from drug volume, specialty therapy growth, outpatient care, home-care demand, and hospital supply needs. The offset is that distribution remains low margin, policy-sensitive, and contract-driven.
At about 36.65x TTM EPS and 13.01x TTM free cash flow, the market is valuing CAH on forward adjusted earnings and cash flow rather than GAAP trailing EPS alone. Margin of safety depends on guidance durability and avoiding multiple compression.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $239.71 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis CAH financials and statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $56.14 billion calculated from $239.71 x 234.21 million shares, matching the reported $56.14 billion market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 234.21 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CAH statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $222.578 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue | Cardinal Health FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings | $1.569 billion net income and $1.561 billion net income to common in StockAnalysis, cross-checked with company rounded FY2025 net earnings near $1.6 billion | StockAnalysis income statement and Cardinal Health FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | $60.9 billion revenue, $509 million GAAP operating earnings, $1.69 GAAP diluted EPS, and $3.17 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $10.70 to $10.80 non-GAAP EPS guidance range | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.937 billion cash and equivalents, $8.916 billion total debt, and about $4.979 billion net debt as of March 31, 2026 | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Segment mix | FY2025 segment revenue: $204.644 billion Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions, $12.636 billion Global Medical Products and Distribution, and $5.382 billion Other | Cardinal Health FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | StockAnalysis listed 50-day moving average $209.01, 200-day moving average $201.95, RSI 75.06, and 20-day average volume 2.55 million shares | StockAnalysis CAH statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Management | Jason Hollar has served as CEO since 2022 and previously served as Cardinal Health CFO from 2020 until 2022 | Cardinal Health corporate governance biography | July 8, 2026 |
This CAH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
