Cardinal Health, Inc. research snapshot
CAH AI stock analysis currently reads Cardinal Health, Inc. as a durable healthcare distribution and services company with strong fiscal 2026 operating momentum, raised full-year guidance, and improving cash generation. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, CAH closed at $230.03 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $53.87 billion, down from the July 7 high of $243.21 after a normal pullback. The stock still holds above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus with a $252.40 average price target. The forecast is scenario-based, not a fixed price prediction, because Q4 fiscal 2026 results are due August 11, 2026 and the stock already reflects raised guidance, buybacks, and a large move over the last year. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$230.03
Market cap
$53.87 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
Durable healthcare distributor, valuation discipline needed
Trend status
Constructive but cooled from the July high, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI back near neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cardinal Health distributes pharmaceuticals, specialty products, medical products, lab products, nuclear pharmacy services, at-home supplies, and logistics services to healthcare customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated scale, distribution density, supplier and customer ties, specialty capabilities, purchasing systems, and the difficulty of replicating a national healthcare logistics network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jason Hollar has led the company since 2022 after serving as CFO, with a focus on portfolio actions, specialty growth, debt reduction, share repurchases, and operating execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $222.578 billion, TTM revenue reached $250.735 billion through March 2026, and Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 11% to $60.9 billion with non-GAAP EPS up 35% to $3.17. | High |
| Valuation | At $230.03, CAH trades near 35.17x TTM EPS, 12.29x TTM free cash flow, 0.21x TTM sales, and a 0.90% dividend yield using audited tool math. | High |
| Technical trend | The technical trend remains positive with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but RSI has cooled to about 53 from over 75 and the stock is below the July high of $243.21. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include customer contract loss, reimbursement changes, tariff impact on medical products, generic pricing, acquisition execution, opioid-related liabilities, and working-capital volatility. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are deep. Forward return confidence is lower because margins are thin and the stock has already re-rated. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CAH is a high-utility healthcare infrastructure company, but the current price requires confidence that fiscal 2026 guidance and specialty growth can persist. | Medium |
CAH AI stock forecast
The CAH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $230.03 price reference and fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS consensus near $10.78. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $170, a base area near $258, and a bullish area near $348 before dividends, using EPS growth of 4%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 14x, 19x, and 23x.
$325 to $365
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near double digits, Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions keeps gaining from brand and specialty volume, Other continues to scale, the at-Home tuck-in acquisitions integrate well, tariff pressure is contained, and investors keep paying a low-to-mid 20s earnings multiple.
$240 to $270
More likely if fiscal 2026 guidance is achieved, EPS grows at a mid-single-digit rate after the strong reset, share repurchases continue, free cash flow remains healthy, and the market values CAH near 18x to 20x forward earnings.
$155 to $185
More likely if contract losses, tariff costs, drug pricing pressure, acquisition issues, or litigation costs pressure earnings and investors re-rate CAH closer to a low-to-mid teens earnings multiple.
CAH AI technical analysis
CAH AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed CAH at $230.03 on July 31, 2026, with a 50-day moving average near $221.69, a 200-day moving average near $208.69, and RSI near 53.28. Barchart technical levels show first resistance at $232.38 with stronger resistance near $238.22, first support near $226.54 and a 50-day zone near $221.69, and Barchart rated the stock a Strong Buy technical opinion.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $230.03 | StockAnalysis and Barchart quote references from the July 31, 2026 close used as the current price input. |
| Near resistance | $232 to $238 | Barchart listed first resistance at $232.38, second at $234.72, and third at $238.22, with the July 7, 2026 high of $243.21 as the wider ceiling. |
| Immediate support | $226 to $227 | Barchart listed first support at $226.54 near the recent daily trading zone. |
| Secondary support | $220 to $224 | Barchart listed second support at $223.04 and third at $220.70, overlapping the 50-day moving-average area near $221.69. |
| Longer trend support | $200 to $209 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average near $208.69. A break below this broader zone would weaken the long-term trend. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $221.69, 200-day about $208.69 | StockAnalysis snapshot shows price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a supportive longer-term structure. |
| Momentum | Positive but neutral RSI | StockAnalysis showed RSI at 53.28, a normal reading after the stock cooled from overbought territory near 75. |
| Volume and volatility | Watch earnings volume and healthcare policy headlines | Average 20-day volume was about 2.20 million shares in the StockAnalysis snapshot. Short interest was about 6.75 million shares, near 2.88% of shares outstanding, and options-implied volatility near 36% ahead of Q4 results. |
| Invalidation | Close below $200 | A close below the 200-day moving-average area would argue that the long-term trend has weakened. |
CAH AI trading strategy
The CAH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines healthcare distribution fundamentals, guidance tracking, moving-average context, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for CAH to reclaim the $232 to $238 resistance zone after the Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report on August 11, 2026, with Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions revenue, adjusted EPS, cash flow, and share repurchases still supporting the move.
A failed move back below $226 or a negative guidance change should reduce setup confidence.
If CAH pulls back toward the $220 to $224 support band without a contract, litigation, tariff, or earnings shock, compare the reaction with McKesson, Cencora, healthcare distributors, and the broader healthcare sector.
Do not treat the pullback as routine if the stock closes below the 200-day zone or if margin pressure appears in Pharma, GMPD, or Other.
Track fiscal 2026 EPS guidance, the Q4 results due August 11, 2026, segment profit, specialty growth, branded and generic drug mix, GMPD tariff impact, cash conversion, debt reduction, repurchase pace, customer concentration, and the at-Home Solutions acquisitions announced July 20, 2026.
Position sizing should reflect the thin-margin model, negative book equity, healthcare policy risk, litigation tail risk, and valuation sensitivity after a strong one-year move.
Investment research summary
Cardinal Health is a healthcare supply chain and services company. Customers pay because hospitals, pharmacies, manufacturers, clinics, and home-care channels need reliable product availability, compliance, purchasing scale, and specialized logistics.
The moat is strongest in scale, regulated distribution, supplier access, customer workflows, logistics density, specialty services, and the cost of switching mission-critical healthcare supply chains.
The thesis fails if a large customer leaves, reimbursement or drug pricing rules compress economics, tariffs hit medical products harder than expected, acquisitions underperform, or legal liabilities absorb cash flow.
Jason Hollar moved from CFO to CEO in 2022, giving him direct capital-allocation and balance-sheet context. The current record shows debt reduction, buybacks, portfolio moves, at-Home expansion, and higher fiscal 2026 guidance, but execution must continue.
Healthcare distribution benefits from drug volume, specialty therapy growth, outpatient care, home-care demand, and hospital supply needs. The offset is that distribution remains low margin, policy-sensitive, and contract-driven.
At about 35.17x TTM EPS and 12.29x TTM free cash flow, the market is valuing CAH on forward adjusted earnings and cash flow rather than GAAP trailing EPS alone. Margin of safety depends on guidance durability and avoiding multiple compression.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $230.03 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis CAH overview and Barchart | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $53.87 billion calculated from $230.03 x 234.21 million shares, matching the reported $53.87 billion market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 234.21 million shares outstanding, down 2.36% year over year | StockAnalysis CAH statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $222.578 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue | Cardinal Health FY2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings | $1.561 billion net income and $6.45 diluted EPS in StockAnalysis, cross-checked with company rounded FY2025 net earnings near $1.6 billion | StockAnalysis income statement and Cardinal Health FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | $60.9 billion revenue, $509 million GAAP operating earnings, $1.69 GAAP diluted EPS, $956 million non-GAAP operating earnings, and $3.17 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $10.70 to $10.80 non-GAAP EPS guidance range, raised from $10.15 to $10.35 | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance | $3.3 billion to $3.7 billion adjusted free cash flow, raised from $3.0 billion to $3.5 billion | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.937 billion cash and equivalents, $8.916 billion total debt, and about $4.979 billion net debt as of March 31, 2026 | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment mix | FY2025 segment revenue: $204.644 billion Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions, $12.636 billion Global Medical Products and Distribution, and $5.382 billion Other | Cardinal Health FY2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 segment results | Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions revenue $56.1 billion with segment profit $784 million, Global Medical Products and Distribution revenue $3.1 billion with segment profit $25 million, and Other revenue $1.7 billion with segment profit $179 million | Cardinal Health Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $252.40 based on 17 analysts, with recent target hikes from Citi to $265, UBS to $274, and TD Cowen to $275 | StockAnalysis CAH forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | StockAnalysis listed 50-day moving average $221.69, 200-day moving average $208.69, RSI 53.28, and 20-day average volume 2.20 million shares | StockAnalysis CAH statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent acquisitions | On July 20, 2026, Cardinal Health agreed to acquire the diabetes health business of AdaptHealth and Strive Medical for about $360 million total to expand its at-Home Solutions business | StockAnalysis news feed citing PRNewswire and Reuters coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Management | Jason Hollar has served as CEO since 2022 and previously served as Cardinal Health CFO from 2020 until 2022 | Cardinal Health corporate governance biography | August 2, 2026 |
This CAH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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