HCA Healthcare, Inc. research snapshot
HCA AI stock analysis reads HCA Healthcare as a high-scale hospital and outpatient care operator whose Q2 2026 report on July 24 delivered an EPS beat but reset the year on payer mix. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, HCA closed near $402.59 on July 31 with a verified market capitalization near $87.16 billion. Q2 revenue rose 8.7% to $20.230 billion, diluted EPS rose 11.6% to $7.62, and adjusted EBITDA rose 4.6% to $4.027 billion, but management cut 2026 guidance to revenue of $77.0 billion to $79.5 billion and EPS of $28.70 to $30.50 because exchange-covered patients fell 15% and migrated nearly one for one to uninsured, a headwind now estimated at $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion for the year. The HCA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges instead of a fixed price prediction because payer mix, elective surgery demand, Medicaid supplemental payments, labor costs, and leverage can change the earnings path quickly.
Current price
$402.59
Market cap
$87.16 billion verified market cap
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-scale hospital operator repriced on payer mix and surgery headwinds
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average, still below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HCA operates 190 hospitals and about 2,600 ambulatory sites of care that patients and payers use for essential acute, emergency, and outpatient services across 19 states and the United Kingdom. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from local market density, physician relationships, trauma and specialty capabilities, payer contracts, operating discipline, data scale, and capital access, but payer mix, elective demand, and regulation remain material constraints. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Sam Hazen and CFO Mike Marks delivered an EPS beat on July 24 while cutting 2026 guidance, explaining a 15% drop in exchange patients, a one-for-one shift to uninsured, and a $400 million Q2 EBITDA headwind from payer mix offset by Medicaid supplemental payments. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $75.60 billion and net income was $6.78 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose 8.7% to $20.230 billion, diluted EPS rose 11.6% to $7.62, and H1 2026 diluted EPS rose to $14.77. | High |
| Valuation | At $402.59, HCA screens near 13.48x TTM EPS, 13.12x forward earnings, 1.12x sales, 14.53x free cash flow, and a 0.78% dividend yield using verified tool math. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above the 50-day moving average near $387.06 on July 31 but remains below the 100-day moving average near $428.89 and the 200-day moving average near $457.29, with 14-day RSI near 54.60. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are the exchange to uninsured payer mix shift, weak elective surgery demand, Medicaid program timing and approval risk, Medicare and policy changes, labor cost, negative book equity, debt, and the possibility of another guidance reset. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings, the earnings call, and third-party data agree on key financials. Return confidence is lower because exchange attrition, surgery recovery, and policy decisions can reset estimates quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HCA has strong business quality and a discounted multiple, but the setup needs payer mix stabilization, elective surgery recovery, Medicaid program certainty, and a technical recovery above the 200-day moving average. | Medium |
HCA AI stock forecast
The HCA AI stock forecast is scenario-based because hospital earnings depend on admissions, payer mix, elective surgery demand, labor costs, Medicaid supplemental payments, reimbursement, exchange attrition, debt cost, and capital spending. Using the $402.59 close, TTM EPS of $29.87, and an audited three-year model with EPS growth of 8%, 5%, and near 0% and exit multiples of 15x, 13x, and 11x, the mechanical outcomes are about $564 in a bullish case, $450 in a base case, and $334 in a bearish case before dividends.
$540 to $580 before dividends
More likely if exchange attrition slows, uninsured volume stops growing, elective surgery demand recovers, Medicaid supplemental programs stay approved, labor costs stay contained, and the market applies a 14x to 15x earnings multiple to mid-single-digit or better EPS growth.
$430 to $470 before dividends
More likely if 2026 guidance is met, EPS compounds in the mid-single digits, the exchange headwind holds near the guided $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion, buybacks continue, and investors value HCA near a 12x to 13x earnings multiple.
$320 to $360 before dividends
More likely if exchange attrition is worse than modeled, uninsured care rises further, elective surgeries keep falling, Medicaid program benefits shrink, labor costs reaccelerate, or the market compresses HCA toward a 10x to 11x multiple.
HCA AI technical analysis
HCA AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $402.59 on July 31, above the 50-day moving average near $387.06 but below the 100-day moving average near $428.89 and the 200-day moving average near $457.29. Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 54.60 and 14-day ATR near $14.15. StockAnalysis reported a 52-week range from $353.13 to $556.52.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $402.59 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both listed the July 31, 2026 close, with the 20-day moving average near $392.25 just below. |
| Immediate support | $395 to $398 | The July 30 close near $395.79 and the July 31 intraday low near $391.38 form a nearby support reference. |
| Deeper support | $385 to $391 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $387.06 and the July rebound base, making it the key trend-support zone to watch. |
| Support floor | $363 to $370 | StockAnalysis history shows the July 14 low near $363.60 after the guidance reset. A sustained break would challenge the post-report recovery. |
| Near resistance | $418 to $423 | StockAnalysis history shows the July 28 high near $419.22 and the July 7 close near $423.11, capping the recent rebound. |
| Upper resistance | $455 to $460 | The 200-day moving average near $457.29 is the main trend barrier, with the 100-day moving average near $428.89 as a first step. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $387.06, 100-day near $428.89, 200-day near $457.29 | Price above the 50-day average but below the 100-day and 200-day averages supports a recovery attempt, not a confirmed long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54.60, ADX near 19 | Momentum is neutral to mildly positive. ADX near 19 signals a weak trend, so follow-through needs volume and fundamental support. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.8 million shares | Volume spiked near 2.9 million on July 28 after the rebound and near 2.7 million on July 24 earnings, so breakout and breakdown moves should be checked against volume. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $14.15 | Daily range of roughly 3.5% means position sizing should allow for wide swings around earnings, exchange data, and policy headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $385, then below $363 | A sustained break below the 50-day area near $387 weakens the recovery. A deeper break below the July 14 low near $363.60 would challenge the larger setup. |
HCA AI trading strategy
The HCA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with payer mix, exchange attrition, elective surgery demand, Medicaid supplemental payments, labor cost, capital spending, debt, and cash flow.
Watch for HCA to hold the $385 to $391 support area and move through $418 to $423 and then the 100-day moving average with improving volume, stable guidance, and no negative update on exchange attrition, uninsured volumes, or surgery demand.
A failed move near the 100-day or 200-day moving average followed by a close below $385 should reduce trend confidence, especially if Q3 commentary points to a deeper exchange or surgery reset.
If HCA pulls back toward the 50-day average without a new earnings reset, compare the lower price with 2026 EPS guidance, free cash flow, debt, buyback pace, and peer action in Tenet and other hospital operators.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if exchange attrition accelerates, uninsured care rises, elective surgery demand keeps falling, or Medicaid program benefits shrink.
Track exchange and uninsured equivalent admissions, revenue per equivalent admission, same-facility admissions, ER visits, inpatient and outpatient surgery cases, wage inflation, supply costs, Medicaid supplemental payments, debt, capex, buybacks, and policy updates.
Position sizing should reflect that HCA can look statistically cheap before a payer mix, reimbursement, surgery, or policy reset becomes visible in reported EPS.
Investment research summary
Customers and payers fund HCA because communities need hospitals, emergency rooms, surgery centers, physician clinics, urgent care, diagnostics, and specialty care capacity. The business converts essential patient demand into facility revenue, operating margin, and cash flow.
The moat is strongest in local hospital networks, physician relationships, trauma and specialty capacity, payer contracting, regulatory know-how, operating scale, and clinical data. The moat can narrow if exchange attrition pushes patients to uninsured, if competitors expand outpatient sites, or if payers gain pricing leverage.
The thesis fails if exchange patients keep moving to uninsured, elective surgery demand stays weak, Medicaid supplemental payments are not approved, Medicare or reimbursement policy disappoints, labor inflation outruns pricing, or debt and negative book equity limit flexibility.
Sam Hazen and Mike Marks acknowledged on the July 24 call that the payer mix shift was worse than expected, cut 2026 guidance, and highlighted resiliency savings, capacity investment, and continued buybacks. The key management test is stabilizing payer mix while managing leverage and capital returns.
Hospital demand benefits from aging demographics, chronic disease, acuity, outpatient migration, and care-network density. The offset is that the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, affordability pressure, and healthcare policy keep payer, employer, and government scrutiny high.
At $402.59 and about 13.5x TTM earnings, HCA trades at a discount to the analyst consensus target of $452.81, but the price still assumes the exchange and surgery headwinds are contained. Margin of safety improves if payer mix stabilizes and the stock stays near a low-to-mid-teens earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $402.59 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis HCA quote and price history | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $87.16 billion, verified as $402.59 x 216.5 million shares with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis HCA statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $20.230 billion, up 8.7% year over year | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS and adjusted EBITDA | $7.62 diluted EPS up 11.6%, $7.59 adjusted EPS up 11.0%, $4.027 billion adjusted EBITDA up 4.6% | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 payer mix headwind | Exchange patients down 15% and shifting near one for one to uninsured, roughly $400 million unfavorable pretax impact in Q2 | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results and earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue $77.0 billion to $79.5 billion, net income $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA $15.4 billion to $16.1 billion, EPS $28.70 to $30.50 | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results guidance update | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | $1.013 billion cash, $49.718 billion total debt, stockholders deficit of $3.209 billion | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $2.064 billion buyback of 4.752 million shares in Q2, $7.210 billion remaining under authorization, $0.78 quarterly dividend | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Facility footprint | 190 hospitals and approximately 2,600 ambulatory sites of care in 19 states and the United Kingdom | HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 13.48x PE, 13.12x forward PE, 1.12x sales, 14.53x free cash flow | StockAnalysis HCA statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $387.06, 100-day MA $428.89, 200-day MA $457.29, RSI 54.60, ATR $14.15 | StockAnalysis HCA statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 25 analysts with an average target of $452.81, low $369, high $579 | StockAnalysis HCA forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This HCA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a rating, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, payer mix, exchange attrition, surgery demand, reimbursement, policy, labor costs, debt markets, or market sentiment change.
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