H&R Block Inc. research snapshot
HRB AI stock analysis views H&R Block as a cash-generative tax preparation franchise with a 3.82% dividend yield, a low 7.8x trailing earnings multiple, and strong free cash flow, but it also faces modest revenue growth and long-term pressure from IRS Free File and AI-powered filing tools. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31, 2026 NYSE close was $44.03, the verified market capitalization was about $5.58 billion on about 126.76 million shares, and the AI rating was constructive on valuation and capital returns while cautious on volume growth. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$44.03
Market cap
$5.58 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High cash yield value business with a defensible dividend, but modest growth and structural tax-filing pressure
Trend status
Price holds above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a July rally, so the short and intermediate trends are constructive
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | H&R Block provides assisted and DIY tax preparation in the US, Canada, and Australia, plus refund advances, bank products, and small business financial solutions. TTM revenue is about $3.91 billion with a 44.3% gross margin and a 23.1% operating margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand recognition built over 70 years, a physical retail network, IRS e-filing and refund product relationships, and customer inertia in assisted filing. It is narrow and does not block DIY software or AI-native filing tools. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeffrey J. Jones II has led efficiency gains, debt paydown, a 12% dividend increase, and buybacks that cut the share count about 5.7% in a year. Management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10 to $5.20 after a strong third quarter. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue grew about 5.4% to $3.91 billion, TTM EPS rose about 39% to $5.62, and free cash flow reached about $761 million. TTM net income is about $735.80 million with an 18.90% profit margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.03, HRB trades at about 7.8x trailing earnings, 7.4x forward earnings, 7.3x free cash flow, with a 3.82% dividend yield and about a 13.6% free cash flow yield. The analyst consensus is Hold with an average target of $42, below the current price. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | HRB closed at $44.03 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day ($41.43), 50-day ($39.07), 100-day ($35.63), and 200-day ($38.64) moving averages after a July rally, with RSI near 61 and ADX near 28 pointing to a moderate uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are secular decline in paid tax preparation from IRS Free File and AI filing tools, modest revenue growth, about $2.0 billion of total debt, high short interest near 14% of shares, and heavy seasonal concentration. The stock remains about 21% below its 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial, valuation, guidance, and analyst data because multiple independent sources align. Medium for technical levels because chart data moves quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Cash generation, the dividend, and buybacks are defensible, but growth is modest, the consensus price target is below the current price, and secular tax-filing disruption limits the upside case. | Medium |
HRB AI stock forecast
The HRB AI stock forecast uses a scenario range instead of a single price prediction. The model starts from the July 31, 2026 close of $44.03 and TTM diluted EPS of $5.62, then applies three-year EPS growth and PE assumptions verified with the financial_rigor.py toolkit. The forecast becomes more useful after fiscal 2026 full-year results on August 11, 2026 refresh revenue, margin, and guidance inputs.
$58 to $70
More likely if H&R Block reports fiscal 2026 results at or above the raised adjusted EPS guidance of $5.10 to $5.20, assisted volumes hold, small business and financial product revenue keeps growing, and the market rewards the cash returns with a multiple near 10x earnings.
$45 to $55
More likely if tax volumes stay flat to slightly up, the company keeps raising the dividend and buying back shares, and the stock holds a multiple near 7.5x to 8.5x on steady earnings.
$34 to $38
More likely if IRS Free File and AI-native filing tools accelerate share loss in assisted preparation, revenue growth stalls, margins compress, or the stock multiple contracts toward 6x earnings.
HRB AI technical analysis
HRB AI technical analysis uses July 31, 2026 market data. The stock completed a sharp rally off 2026 lows and now holds above every major moving average, which is a constructive setup, but it remains about 21% below the highs from mid-2025. Traders should re-check live quotes because this static page does not fetch request-time data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Closing price | $44.03 | July 31, 2026 NYSE close used as the reference price for this page. |
| 52-week range | $28.16 to $55.95 | The stock recovered from its 52-week low but remains below the year high, showing range-bound history with recent upside momentum. |
| 20-day moving average | $41.43 | Price above the 20-day MA indicates positive short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $39.07 | Price above the 50-day MA supports a medium-term bullish setup. |
| 200-day moving average | $38.64 | The stock cleared the 200-day MA, which improves the long-term technical picture. A hold above it keeps the recovery intact. |
| Support zone | $39 to $41 | The 50-day MA near $39.07 and the round $40 area form near-term support. A break below $39 would test the 200-day near $38.64. |
| Resistance zone | $46 to $48 | The recent July high area and the Stephens $47 price target form the next overhead test. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61 | The 14-day RSI is positive but not overbought, leaving room for further upside. |
| Volume | About 1.69 million shares on July 31 | Volume was near the 20-day average of about 1.86 million, suggesting the rally had reasonable participation. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $1.73 | ATR was about 3.9% of price with a low 0.38 beta. Stop levels and position sizing should still account for typical daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $38.64 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would shift the technical setup back toward the range-bound bearish case. |
HRB AI trading strategy
The HRB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research and watchlist planning. It is not personalized advice. Use Pineify to translate the conditions into Pine Script alerts only after confirming live quotes, moving averages, and position risk.
Consider HRB for trend-following if it holds above the 200-day moving average near $38.64 and the 50-day near $39.07 with volume, supported by fiscal 2026 results on August 11 and continued buyback activity.
Invalidate the setup if the stock closes below $38.64 and fails to reclaim the 50-day moving average.
For income-focused positioning, the 3.82% dividend yield is supported by a payout ratio near 30% of earnings and strong free cash flow, with the dividend raised 12% over the past year. Monitor the payout ratio and buyback pace each quarter.
Reduce the position if the company cuts or suspends the dividend, or if free cash flow coverage of the dividend falls below 1.5x.
Track the August 11, 2026 fiscal 2026 full-year results, assisted versus DIY filing mix, IRS Free File adoption, AI filing competition, buyback pace, and debt level. Use the AI Stock Picker for cross-checking quality and risk screens.
Lower confidence if assisted filing volumes decline more than 5% year over year or if the dividend growth streak stops.
Investment research summary
Customers pay H&R Block to prepare and file their taxes accurately, either through assisted service at thousands of retail locations or through DIY software, plus refund advances, bank products, and small business financial solutions built around the tax filing event.
H&R Block benefits from brand recognition built over 70 years, a physical retail network that competitors cannot easily replicate, IRS relationships for e-filing and refund products, and customer habit for older filers who prefer assisted preparation. The moat is narrow and does not protect against DIY software and AI filing tools.
The failure path is that paid tax preparation declines faster than H&R Block can offset with digital growth as IRS Free File and AI-native tools expand, combined with modest revenue growth, about $2.0 billion of debt, and heavy seasonal concentration that leaves little margin for error if volumes slip.
CEO Jeffrey J. Jones II has focused on operational efficiency, debt paydown, a 12% dividend increase, and buybacks that reduced the share count about 5.7% in a year. The company raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10 to $5.20 after a strong third quarter.
Tax preparation is a mature, low-growth industry being reshaped by DIY software, IRS digital filing expansion, and emerging AI tools that could further reduce demand for paid preparers. The assisted channel continues to serve older and more complex filers but faces long-term volume erosion.
At 7.8x earnings with a 3.82% dividend yield and about a 13.6% free cash flow yield, HRB is priced for modest growth. Margin of safety depends on holding volumes and returning cash to shareholders, but the consensus price target of $42 sits below the current price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HRB price | $44.03 NYSE close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.58 billion, verified as $44.03 x 126.76 million shares, 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py verification with StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.91 billion, up about 5.4% year over year | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $735.80 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Diluted EPS (TTM) | $5.62 on StockAnalysis, $5.59 on Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 18.90% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $867.01 million | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $2.03 billion, net cash of about negative $1.16 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $760.88 million, a 13.63% FCF yield verified with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis cash flow and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $1.68 per share, 3.82% yield, 12% growth over the past year | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average price target $42.00 across 5 analysts, range $29 to $50 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 20-day MA $41.43, 50-day MA $39.07, 200-day MA $38.64 as of July 31, 2026 | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This HRB AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold H&R Block Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available data, valuation assumptions, and technical snapshots as of the cutoff date and may be wrong.
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