Exelon Corporation research snapshot
EXC AI stock analysis currently reads Exelon Corporation as a large fully regulated transmission and distribution utility with almost 11 million customers, Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.90, 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $2.81 to $2.91, and a $41.7 billion four-year capital plan aimed at 7.9% rate-base growth. The July 8, 2026 data cutoff uses a $47.57 share price, about $48.67 billion verified market cap, roughly 1.02 billion shares outstanding, TTM EPS near $2.73, and TTM revenue near $24.79 billion. The EXC AI stock forecast is scenario-based because utility returns depend on regulator-approved rates, interest expense, equity issuance, capital execution, customer affordability, and weather. This page is an information tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$47.57
Market cap
$48.67 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Large regulated utility with stable earnings visibility, heavy capital needs, and rate-case sensitivity
Trend status
Constructive but not explosive, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with mid-range RSI
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Exelon owns six fully regulated electric and gas transmission and distribution utilities, so customers pay for essential grid service rather than discretionary energy products. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from exclusive service territories, regulated asset ownership, scale, grid reliability obligations, and customer density, but regulators control allowed returns. | High |
| Management | Management is focused on regulated utility execution, cost control, reliability, and a $41.7 billion capital plan while balancing customer affordability and shareholder growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $24.26 billion, FY2025 net income was about $2.77 billion, and Q1 2026 adjusted operating EPS was $0.91 with full-year guidance reaffirmed. | High |
| Valuation | At $47.57, EXC screens near 17.42x TTM EPS, 1.65x book value, 1.95x sales, negative FCF yield because of capex, and a dividend yield near 3.53%. | High |
| Technical trend | EXC trades above its 50-day moving average near $45.78 and 200-day moving average near $46.05, with RSI near 58.27 on StockAnalysis and near 62.79 on Investing.com. | Medium |
| Risk level | Major risks include adverse rate-case outcomes, higher interest expense, equity dilution, capex overruns, storms, political pressure on bills, and weaker credit metrics. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because company filings and third-party financial data align on the key numbers. Return confidence is lower because regulators and rates can alter outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EXC has a stable business model, but the current price leaves only moderate margin of safety unless EPS growth near the top of management guidance is delivered without excessive dilution. | Medium |
EXC AI stock forecast
The EXC AI stock forecast uses the $47.57 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $2.73, and a three-year audited scenario model. The model produced a bearish area near $37.70, a base area near $50.60, and a bullish area near $60.20 before dividends. A higher outcome needs constructive rate-case decisions, reliable execution of the $41.7 billion capital plan, annual EPS growth near the upper part of the 5% to 7% range, manageable interest costs, and investor confidence that equity funding will not offset rate-base growth.
$57 to $62 before dividends
More likely if regulators approve timely recovery of grid investments, transmission growth supports earnings, EPS compounds near 7%, debt metrics remain acceptable, and the market values EXC near an 18x utility multiple.
$49 to $53 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows around 5%, dividend growth remains measured, equity issuance is absorbed, rate cases are mixed but workable, and investors keep EXC near a mid-teens forward earnings multiple.
$36 to $40 before dividends
More likely if rate outcomes disappoint, interest expense rises faster than allowed returns, storm or reliability costs increase, customer affordability pressure delays recovery, or the market rerates utilities to lower multiples.
EXC AI technical analysis
EXC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, but the chart is still close to resistance rather than deeply oversold. StockAnalysis showed a July 7, 2026 close of $47.57, market cap near $48.67 billion, a 50-day moving average of $45.78, a 200-day moving average of $46.05, RSI near 58.27, and 20-day average volume near 9.20 million shares. Investing.com also showed the 50-day and 200-day moving averages below price and a 14-day RSI near 62.79.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.57 | Latest verified closing price used for the July 8, 2026 market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $46 to $47 | This band overlaps the 200-day moving average area and recent consolidation support. |
| Deeper support | $44 to $45 | A pullback into this area would test whether buyers still support the regulated utility yield and EPS growth thesis. |
| Major support | $41 to $42 | This zone is near the low end of the current analyst target range and would imply a larger utility-sector rerating. |
| Near resistance | $49 to $50 | This area is close to the average analyst target and needs confirmation from Q2 earnings, guidance, and rate-case commentary. |
| Upper resistance | $54 to $58 | This zone overlaps the upper analyst target range and likely requires confidence in 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2029. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $45.78, 200-day near $46.05 | Price above both averages supports a trend-following bias, but the spread is not wide enough to ignore failed-breakout risk. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.27 to 62.79 | Momentum is positive but not extreme, so traders should watch whether price can break resistance without exhausting demand. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 9.20 million shares | A move through resistance carries more weight if volume stays above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Watch July 30, 2026 earnings | Q2 earnings, financing updates, rate-case comments, capex execution, and interest-cost commentary are likely volatility triggers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44 | A sustained break below deeper support would weaken the current constructive setup and lower confidence in mean reversion. |
EXC AI trading strategy
The EXC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with rate-base growth, rate-case outcomes, capex, financing costs, dividend coverage, equity issuance, reliability metrics, and customer affordability.
Watch for EXC to hold above $46 and push through $49 to $50 with volume above the 20-day average, Q2 results that keep 2026 EPS guidance intact, and no negative surprise on rate recovery or equity funding.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $45 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management commentary points to higher financing costs, slower recovery, or weaker utility earnings.
If EXC pulls back toward $44 to $46 without a guidance cut, compare the lower price with dividend yield, allowed returns, rate-base growth, book value, and the next rate-case calendar.
Do not treat the dividend yield alone as downside protection. Recheck debt, equity needs, FCF deficit, customer bill pressure, and whether capital spending is earning timely regulated returns.
Track quarterly EPS, 2026 guidance, capital plan changes, rate-base growth, debt and equity financing, interest expense, storm costs, customer arrears, dividend payout, and regulator decisions in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and DC.
Position sizing should reflect that regulated utilities can look stable operationally while shareholder returns are pressured by rates, dilution, or adverse regulatory timing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Exelon because households, businesses, data centers, and public institutions need reliable electric and gas delivery. Exelon earns regulated returns by investing in grid assets and recovering approved costs through utility rates.
Exelon has regulated local monopolies, large service territories, dense customer bases, utility operating expertise, and essential infrastructure. The moat is strong, but returns are set through regulators rather than open-market pricing power.
The thesis fails if regulators deny timely recovery, affordability pressure rises, interest costs outpace allowed returns, capex overruns require more equity, storms raise costs, or negative free cash flow persists longer than expected.
Calvin Butler and the management team are steering Exelon as a standalone regulated utility. Capital allocation should be judged by reliability, approved returns, debt discipline, dividend coverage, equity issuance timing, and customer affordability.
Electrification, grid hardening, transmission investment, data-center demand, and reliability needs support long-term rate-base growth. The offset is that regulators and customers may resist bills that rise too quickly.
At $47.57, EXC trades around 17.42x TTM EPS and 1.65x book value. Margin of safety is moderate because the business is defensive, but negative free cash flow and funding needs make execution and rate recovery central to value.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXC quote reference | $47.57 close on July 7, 2026, with 50-day moving average near $45.78 and 200-day near $46.05 | StockAnalysis EXC statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $48.67 billion reported and $48.66 billion calculated from $47.57 x 1.023 billion shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis EXC statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $24.26 billion and net income to common of $2.77 billion | StockAnalysis EXC financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings and guidance | Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.90, adjusted operating EPS of $0.91, and 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 | Exelon Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Capital plan and rate-base growth | $41.7 billion four-year capital plan with expected rate-base growth of 7.9% | Exelon Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents of $1.27 billion, total debt of $51.24 billion, and book value per share of $28.84 as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EXC balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.42x TTM EPS, 1.65x book value, 1.95x sales, FCF yield near -4.48%, and dividend yield near 3.53% | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst reference range | Consensus rating Hold, average target $49.44, low target $41, and high target $58 | StockAnalysis EXC forecast | July 8, 2026 |
This EXC AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a buy or sell recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, regulation, interest rates, capital markets, weather, or market sentiment change.
