Exelon Corporation research snapshot
EXC AI stock analysis currently reads Exelon Corporation as a large fully regulated transmission and distribution utility serving almost 11 million customers, with Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.39 and adjusted operating EPS of $0.43, full-year 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance reaffirmed at $2.81 to $2.91, and a roughly $41 billion five-year capital plan reaffirmed. The August 2, 2026 data cutoff uses a $45.82 close from July 31, 2026, about $47.30 billion reported market cap, roughly 1.03 billion shares outstanding, TTM EPS near $2.72, and TTM revenue near $25.33 billion. EXC fell below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July 30, 2026 earnings report, so the technical setup is neutral rather than strongly constructive. The EXC AI stock forecast is scenario-based because utility returns depend on regulator-approved rates, interest expense, equity issuance, capital execution, customer affordability, and weather. This page is an information tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$45.82
Market cap
$47.30 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Large regulated utility with reaffirmed guidance, heavy capital needs, and rate-case sensitivity
Trend status
Neutral to soft after the July 30 earnings pullback, with price near and below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Exelon owns six fully regulated electric and gas transmission and distribution utilities serving almost 11 million customers, so customers pay for essential grid service rather than discretionary energy products. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from exclusive service territories, regulated asset ownership, scale, grid reliability obligations, and customer density, but regulators control allowed returns. | High |
| Management | Management is focused on regulated utility execution, cost control, reliability, and a roughly $41 billion five-year capital plan while balancing customer affordability and shareholder growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $24.26 billion, FY2025 net income was about $2.77 billion, TTM revenue is about $25.33 billion, and Q2 2026 adjusted operating EPS was $0.43 with full-year guidance reaffirmed. | High |
| Valuation | At $45.82, EXC screens near 16.85x TTM EPS, 15.55x forward EPS, 1.59x book value, 1.87x sales, negative FCF yield because of capex, and a dividend yield near 3.67%. | High |
| Technical trend | EXC closed at $45.82 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day moving average near $46.25 and 200-day moving average near $46.20, with RSI near 44.62, so the setup is neutral to soft after the earnings pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Major risks include adverse rate-case outcomes, higher interest expense, equity dilution, capex overruns, storms, political pressure on bills, and weaker credit metrics. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because company filings and third-party financial data align on the key numbers. Return confidence is lower because regulators and rates can alter outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EXC has a stable business model, but the current price leaves only moderate margin of safety unless EPS growth near management guidance is delivered without excessive dilution. | Medium |
EXC AI stock forecast
The EXC AI stock forecast uses the $45.82 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $2.72, and a three-year audited scenario model. The model produced a bearish area near $39.50, a base area near $53.00, and a bullish area near $63.10 before dividends, with published scenario ranges stated as bullish $58 to $63, base $50 to $53, and bearish $37 to $41. A higher outcome needs constructive rate-case decisions, reliable execution of the capital plan, EPS growth near management 5% to 7% target through 2029, manageable interest costs, and investor confidence that equity funding will not offset rate-base growth.
$58 to $63 before dividends
More likely if regulators approve timely recovery of grid investments, transmission growth supports earnings, EPS compounds near the top of the 5% to 7% range, debt metrics remain acceptable, and the market values EXC near an 18x utility multiple.
$50 to $53 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows around 5%, dividend growth remains measured, equity issuance is absorbed, rate cases are mixed but workable, and investors keep EXC near a mid-teens forward earnings multiple.
$37 to $41 before dividends
More likely if rate outcomes disappoint, interest expense rises faster than allowed returns, storm or reliability costs increase, customer affordability pressure delays recovery, or the market rerates utilities to lower multiples.
EXC AI technical analysis
EXC AI technical analysis is neutral to soft as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $45.82, market cap near $47.30 billion, a 50-day moving average of $46.25, a 200-day moving average of $46.20, RSI near 44.62, and 20-day average volume near 9.18 million shares. EXC pulled back below both moving averages after the July 30, 2026 earnings report, so traders should watch whether price can reclaim the moving-average area before treating the trend as constructive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $45.82 | Latest verified closing price used for the August 2, 2026 market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $44.60 to $45.00 | This band covers recent July and June pullback lows and is the first zone to watch for a stabilization signal. |
| Deeper support | $42.50 to $43.50 | A move into this area would test the 52-week low near $42.58 and imply a more defensive utility-market read. |
| Near resistance | $46.20 to $46.70 | This area overlaps the 200-day and 50-day moving averages and needs to be reclaimed for the trend to turn constructive. |
| Mid resistance | $47.30 to $48.50 | This zone covers July consolidation highs and the July 28 intraday high near $48.49, and is close to the average analyst target. |
| Upper resistance | $50.65 | This is the 52-week high and would likely require confidence in 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2029. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $46.25, 200-day near $46.20 | Price below both averages weakens the trend-following bias until a close above the moving-average zone confirms a reclaim. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.62 | RSI is neutral to soft, so watch whether momentum stabilizes near support or rolls over toward the lower end of the 52-week range. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 9.18 million shares | The July 30 earnings day printed roughly 18.55 million shares, and a sustainable reclaim of resistance carries more weight with volume above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 updates and rate-case news | Q3 earnings, financing updates, BGE rate-case commentary, capex execution, and interest-cost commentary are likely volatility triggers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44.60 | A sustained break below immediate support would open the $42.50 to $43.50 zone and weaken the current neutral-to-soft setup. |
EXC AI trading strategy
The EXC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with rate-base growth, rate-case outcomes, capex, financing costs, dividend coverage, equity issuance, reliability metrics, and customer affordability.
Watch for EXC to reclaim $46.20 to $46.70 and then push toward $47.30 to $48.50 with volume above the 20-day average, Q3 results that keep 2026 EPS guidance intact, and no negative surprise on rate recovery or equity funding.
A failed reclaim that closes back below $45 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management commentary points to higher financing costs, slower recovery, or weaker utility earnings.
If EXC pulls back toward $44.60 to $45.00 or $42.50 to $43.50 without a guidance cut, compare the lower price with dividend yield, allowed returns, rate-base growth, book value, and the next rate-case calendar.
Do not treat the dividend yield alone as downside protection. Recheck debt, equity needs, FCF deficit, customer bill pressure, and whether capital spending is earning timely regulated returns.
Track quarterly EPS, 2026 guidance, capital plan changes, rate-base growth, debt and equity financing, interest expense, storm costs, customer arrears, dividend payout, and regulator decisions in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and DC.
Position sizing should reflect that regulated utilities can look stable operationally while shareholder returns are pressured by rates, dilution, or adverse regulatory timing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Exelon because households, businesses, data centers, and public institutions need reliable electric and gas delivery. Exelon earns regulated returns by investing in grid assets and recovering approved costs through utility rates.
Exelon has regulated local monopolies, large service territories, dense customer bases, utility operating expertise, and essential infrastructure. The moat is strong, but returns are set through regulators rather than open-market pricing power.
The thesis fails if regulators deny timely recovery, affordability pressure rises, interest costs outpace allowed returns, capex overruns require more equity, storms raise costs, or negative free cash flow persists longer than expected.
Calvin Butler and the management team are steering Exelon as a standalone regulated utility. Capital allocation should be judged by reliability, approved returns, debt discipline, dividend coverage, equity issuance timing, and customer affordability.
Electrification, grid hardening, transmission investment, data-center demand, and reliability needs support long-term rate-base growth. The offset is that regulators and customers may resist bills that rise too quickly.
At $45.82, EXC trades around 16.85x TTM EPS, 15.55x forward EPS, and 1.59x book value. Margin of safety is moderate because the business is defensive, but negative free cash flow and funding needs make execution and rate recovery central to value.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXC quote reference | $45.82 close on July 31, 2026, with 50-day moving average near $46.25 and 200-day near $46.20 | StockAnalysis EXC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $47.30 billion reported and $47.19 billion calculated from $45.82 x 1.03 billion shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis EXC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $24.26 billion and net income to common of $2.77 billion; TTM revenue of about $25.33 billion and TTM net income of about $2.78 billion | StockAnalysis EXC financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings and guidance | Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.39, adjusted operating EPS of $0.43, and full-year 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance reaffirmed at $2.81 to $2.91 | Exelon Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital plan and EPS growth target | Roughly $41 billion five-year capital plan reaffirmed, with operating EPS compounded annual growth targeted near the top end of 5% to 7% from 2025 to 2029 | Exelon Q2 2026 earnings release and Reuters | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents of $2.42 billion, total debt of $52.67 billion, and book value per share near $28.77 as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis EXC balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 16.85x TTM EPS, 15.55x forward EPS, 1.59x book value, 1.87x sales, FCF yield near -4.05%, and dividend yield near 3.67% | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst reference range | Consensus rating Hold, average target $49.44, low target $41, and high target $58 across 22 analysts | StockAnalysis EXC forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This EXC AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a buy or sell recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, regulation, interest rates, capital markets, weather, or market sentiment change.
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