Evergy, Inc. research snapshot
EVRG AI stock analysis currently reads Evergy as a regulated electric utility with essential service territories in Kansas and Missouri, improving large-load demand, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.14 to $4.34, and a dividend yield near 3.2%. The caution is valuation and funding discipline: at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, EVRG closed at $87.12 on July 7, 2026, near its $88.62 52-week high, while capital spending keeps free cash flow negative and total debt is high. This EVRG AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$87.12
Market cap
$20.08 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Regulated utility with visible load growth and capital funding risk
Trend status
Constructive but near a 52-week high, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Evergy sells essential electricity to residential, commercial, industrial, municipal, and wholesale customers through regulated generation, transmission, and distribution assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is regulatory and infrastructure based: service territories, grid assets, generation capacity, Southwest Power Pool participation, local operating scale, and high replacement cost. | High |
| Management | Chair and CEO David Campbell is steering Evergy toward regulated investment recovery, large-load power service agreements, dividend continuity, and 6% to 8%+ long-term adjusted EPS growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $5.962 billion and GAAP earnings to common were $855.6 million. Q1 2026 GAAP earnings improved to $151.5 million, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.69. | High |
| Valuation | At $87.12, EVRG screened near 23.2x TTM EPS, 20.0x forward earnings, 1.98x book value, a 3.19% dividend yield, and negative free cash flow yield because capital expenditures exceed operating cash flow. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 60 by StockAnalysis and 51 by Investing.com, so the trend is positive but not early. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include higher rates, regulatory disallowance, customer bill pressure, debt refinancing, negative FCF, weather, coal and nuclear execution, and whether large-load agreements translate into earned returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current facts and audited calculations, medium for return ranges and chart timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. EVRG has a clearer large-load growth angle than a purely flat-load utility, but the current price already discounts a material part of that improvement. | Medium |
EVRG AI stock forecast
The EVRG AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Evergy value depends on adjusted EPS growth, rate-case outcomes, capital spending recovery, debt cost, dividend policy, weather, and large-load customer execution. Using the $87.12 price reference, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $4.24, and the audited three-scenario model, the mechanical three-year framework points to about $76.50 in a bear case, $101.00 in a base case, and $117.50 in a bullish case before dividends.
$112 to $120 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 8%, large customer electric service agreements begin contributing as planned, regulators approve timely cost recovery, bond yields stay manageable, and investors keep EVRG near a low-20s earnings multiple.
$96 to $104 before dividends
More likely if Evergy delivers roughly 6% EPS growth, meets the $4.14 to $4.34 2026 adjusted EPS guide, keeps dividend growth moderate, and trades around 20x earnings while free cash flow remains pressured by capital investment.
$72 to $80 before dividends
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, regulators trim allowed recovery, large-load projects slip, weather-normalized demand disappoints, or external financing weighs on per-share growth.
EVRG AI technical analysis
EVRG AI technical analysis is constructive but late-cycle as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7, 2026 close of $87.12, a 52-week range of $67.30 to $88.62, a 50-day moving average of $83.30, a 200-day moving average of $79.09, and RSI of 60.39. Investing.com showed a 50-day average near $86.92, a 200-day average near $84.09, and RSI of 51.155, which keeps the setup positive but sensitive to failed breakouts.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.12 | StockAnalysis listed the July 7, 2026 close at $87.12, up 0.99% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $86 to $87 | This area overlaps the recent close, the July 6 close near $86.27 reported by MarketWatch, and short-term moving-average references. |
| 50-day moving average | $83.30 to $86.92 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day average at $83.30, while Investing.com listed it near $86.92. The spread shows source timing differences. |
| 200-day moving average | $79.09 to $84.09 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day average at $79.09, while Investing.com listed it near $84.09. A break under this zone would weaken the trend. |
| Near resistance | $88 to $89 | The July 7 intraday high and 52-week high were both listed near $88.62, making the upper $80s the first breakout test. |
| Upper resistance | $90 to $92 | A sustained move into this area would likely need lower rate pressure, constructive regulatory news, or stronger evidence from large-load customer agreements. |
| Momentum | RSI about 51 to 60 | Investing.com listed RSI at 51.155, while StockAnalysis listed RSI at 60.39. Both readings are below classic overbought territory but show positive momentum. |
| Volume | About 2.35 million shares on July 7 | StockAnalysis listed July 7 volume at 2,352,911 shares, above its 20-day average reference near 2.11 million. |
| Volatility | Lower beta, high rate sensitivity | StockAnalysis listed beta at 0.52, but utility shares can still move sharply around Treasury yields, rate cases, earnings, and capital-plan updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $79 to $84 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving-average zone would weaken the current EVRG AI technical analysis framework. |
EVRG AI trading strategy
The EVRG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, large-load customer agreements, rate-case outcomes, capital spending, dividend coverage, debt issuance, weather, and Treasury yields.
Watch for EVRG to hold the $86 to $87 area and then break above $88.62 on volume above recent averages, ideally with stable Treasury yields and no negative rate-case or financing update.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 200-day moving-average zone should reduce trend confidence.
If EVRG pulls back toward the low $80s while management keeps 2026 adjusted EPS guidance intact, compare dividend yield, allowed returns, load growth, and financing cost before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a utility pullback as automatically low risk if free cash flow stays negative, debt costs rise, or regulators push back on customer bills.
Track Q2 2026 earnings, the $4.14 to $4.34 adjusted EPS guidance range, large customer electric service agreements, long-term EPS growth target, rate-case orders, capital expenditures, total debt, dividend declarations, and weather-normalized demand.
Position sizing should reflect that Evergy is a leveraged, capital-intensive regulated utility. It is not a guaranteed-income instrument.
Investment research summary
Evergy is paid to generate, transmit, distribute, and sell electricity. Customers pay because electricity is required for homes, businesses, factories, municipalities, and data centers in its Kansas and Missouri service territories.
The moat is not brand-based. It comes from regulated monopoly-like service territories, grid infrastructure, generation assets, local operating relationships, high capital requirements, and the difficulty of replacing utility networks.
The thesis fails if regulators do not approve enough recovery, customer affordability becomes politically constrained, interest expense rises, weather hurts demand, project costs run high, or large-load customers arrive later than expected.
Management under David Campbell should be judged by rate-case execution, cost control, capital allocation, dividend coverage, debt discipline, and whether large-load agreements create per-share value rather than only higher capital spending.
Evergy sits inside electrification, grid investment, data-center demand, and industrial reshoring. These are favorable trends, but regulated utilities must fund the buildout first and earn returns only if regulators approve recovery.
At about 23x TTM EPS and near a 52-week high, EVRG has limited room for execution errors. Margin of safety improves if price retreats toward moving-average support while guidance, rate recovery, and financing assumptions remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.12 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $20.08 billion, verified from $87.12 times 230.510138 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 230.51 million current shares outstanding | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Period-end shares | 230,510,138 shares as of March 31, 2026 | Evergy Q1 2026 investor supplement | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.962 billion, cross-validated against Evergy release, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Evergy 2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP earnings to common | $855.6 million, or $3.66 diluted EPS | Evergy 2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP earnings | $151.5 million, or $0.64 per share | Evergy Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.14 to $4.34 | Evergy Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $18.4 million as of March 31, 2026, cross-validated against Evergy supplement and StockAnalysis | Evergy Q1 2026 investor supplement | July 8, 2026 |
| Total debt | $15.88 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Negative $1.10 billion | StockAnalysis EVRG cash flow | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 23.23x TTM EPS, 1.98x book value, negative 5.37% FCF yield, and 3.19% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average $83.30, 200-day moving average $79.09, RSI 60.39, 20-day average volume 2.11 million | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This EVRG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, financing, weather, or market sentiment change.
