Evergy, Inc. research snapshot
EVRG AI stock analysis currently reads Evergy as a regulated electric utility with essential service territories in Kansas and Missouri, five signed data center electric service agreements, retail load growth now guided at 7% to 8% annually through 2030, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.14 to $4.34. The caution is execution and funding: at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, EVRG closed at $83.01 on July 31, 2026, down from the $88.62 52-week high, with capital spending keeping free cash flow negative, total debt near $15.9 billion, and Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6. This EVRG AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$83.01
Market cap
$19.13 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Regulated utility with accelerating large-load growth and financing discipline
Trend status
Pulled back below the 50-day average but still above the 200-day average ahead of August 6 earnings
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Evergy sells essential electricity to residential, commercial, industrial, municipal, and wholesale customers through regulated generation, transmission, and distribution assets, with growing data center demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat is regulatory and infrastructure based: service territories, grid assets, generation capacity, Southwest Power Pool participation, local operating scale, and high replacement cost. | High |
| Management | Chair and CEO David Campbell is steering Evergy toward regulated investment recovery, five signed data center electric service agreements, dividend continuity, and 6% to 8%+ long-term adjusted EPS growth that management expects to exceed 8% from 2028. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue reached about $6.03 billion and TTM net income about $882 million as of March 31, 2026. FY2025 revenue was $5.962 billion and GAAP earnings to common were $855.6 million. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS rose to $0.69. | High |
| Valuation | At $83.01, EVRG screened near 22.1x TTM EPS, 19.1x forward earnings, 1.88x book value, a 3.35% dividend yield, and negative free cash flow yield because capital expenditures exceed operating cash flow. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $83.01 on July 31, below the 50-day moving average near $84.53 but above the 200-day moving average near $80.01, with RSI near 39, so the uptrend has cooled and the setup is now consolidation around the 200-day zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include higher rates, regulatory disallowance, customer bill pressure, debt refinancing, negative FCF, weather, coal and nuclear execution, the $700 to $900 million annual equity program, and whether large-load agreements translate into earned returns on schedule. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current facts and audited calculations, medium for return ranges and chart timing, and lower near-term precision around the August 6 Q2 earnings report. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. EVRG has a stronger large-load growth angle than a flat-load utility, but the stock still trades above its long-term average and must fund its growth with equity and debt. | Medium |
EVRG AI stock forecast
The EVRG AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Evergy value depends on adjusted EPS growth, rate-case outcomes, capital spending recovery, debt and equity financing, dividend policy, weather, and large-load customer execution. Using the $83.01 price reference, the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $4.24, and the audited three-scenario model, the mechanical three-year framework points to about $76.50 in a bear case, $101.00 in a base case, and $120.80 in a bullish case before dividends.
$112 to $124 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 9% per year, large customer electric service agreements ramp as planned and at least one more ESA signs in 2026, regulators approve timely cost recovery, bond yields stay manageable, and investors keep EVRG near a low-to-mid 20s earnings multiple.
$96 to $104 before dividends
More likely if Evergy delivers roughly 6% EPS growth, meets the $4.14 to $4.34 2026 adjusted EPS guide, keeps dividend growth moderate, and trades around 20x earnings while free cash flow remains pressured by capital investment and annual equity issuance stays in plan.
$72 to $80 before dividends
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, regulators trim allowed recovery, large-load projects slip, weather-normalized demand disappoints, or external financing weighs on per-share growth.
EVRG AI technical analysis
EVRG AI technical analysis shows a cooled uptrend as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31, 2026 close of $83.01, a 52-week range of $69.54 to $88.62, a 50-day moving average of $84.53, a 200-day moving average of $80.01, and RSI of 39.34. The stock is now below its 50-day average and testing support around the 200-day average, which makes the next moves around $80 to $85 decisive ahead of the August 6 earnings report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.01 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $83.01, down 0.29% on the day and below the 50-day moving average. |
| Immediate support | $80 to $82.50 | The July 31 day low was $82.52, and the 200-day moving average sits near $80.01, so this band is the first real support test. |
| 50-day moving average | $84.53 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day average at $84.53. The stock closed below it, which turns this former support into the first resistance overhead. |
| 200-day moving average | $80.01 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day average at $80.01. A sustained close below this zone would weaken the longer-term trend framework. |
| Near resistance | $84.50 to $85.50 | The 50-day moving-average zone and the recent shelf near the July highs form the first breakout area on any rebound. |
| Upper resistance | $88 to $89 | The 52-week high is $88.62. A return to that zone would require lower rate pressure, constructive regulatory news, or stronger evidence from large-load customer ramps. |
| Momentum | RSI about 39 | StockAnalysis listed RSI at 39.34. The reading is below neutral, reflecting the pullback, but it is not yet in deeply oversold territory. |
| Volume | About 2.84 million shares on July 31 | StockAnalysis listed July 31 volume at 2,839,627 shares, above its 20-day average reference near 2.06 million. |
| Volatility | Lower beta, high rate sensitivity | StockAnalysis listed beta at 0.52, but utility shares can still move sharply around Treasury yields, rate cases, earnings, and capital-plan updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $79 to $80 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving-average zone near $80 would weaken the current EVRG AI technical analysis framework and open the door to the low $70s. |
EVRG AI trading strategy
The EVRG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, the five data center electric service agreements, the August 6 Q2 earnings report, rate-case outcomes, capital spending, dividend coverage, debt and equity issuance, weather, and Treasury yields.
Wait for EVRG to hold the $80 to $82.50 support band and then reclaim the 50-day moving average near $84.53 on volume above recent averages, ideally with a constructive Q2 report on August 6 and no negative rate-case or financing update.
A failed bounce followed by a close below the 200-day moving-average zone near $80 should reduce trend confidence and favor waiting for the low $70s to $80 range.
If EVRG pulls back toward the $80 to $82.50 zone while management keeps the $4.14 to $4.34 adjusted EPS guidance intact, compare dividend yield, allowed returns, load growth, financing cost, and the Q2 report before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a utility pullback as automatically low risk if free cash flow stays negative, the annual equity program grows, debt costs rise, or regulators push back on customer bills.
Track Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, the $4.14 to $4.34 adjusted EPS guidance range, large customer electric service agreements and 7% to 8% load growth guidance, rate-case orders, capital expenditures, total debt, the $700 to $900 million annual equity program, dividend declarations, and weather-normalized demand.
Position sizing should reflect that Evergy is a leveraged, capital-intensive regulated utility. It is not a guaranteed-income instrument.
Investment research summary
Evergy is paid to generate, transmit, distribute, and sell electricity. Customers pay because electricity is required for homes, businesses, factories, municipalities, and data centers in its Kansas and Missouri service territories.
The moat is not brand-based. It comes from regulated monopoly-like service territories, grid infrastructure, generation assets, local operating relationships, high capital requirements, and the difficulty of replacing utility networks.
The thesis fails if regulators do not approve enough recovery, customer affordability becomes politically constrained, interest expense rises, weather hurts demand, project costs run high, large-load customers arrive later than expected, or the annual equity program dilutes per-share growth.
Management under David Campbell should be judged by rate-case execution, cost control, capital allocation, dividend coverage, debt and equity discipline, and whether the five signed ESAs create per-share value rather than only higher capital spending.
Evergy sits inside electrification, grid investment, data-center demand, and industrial reshoring. These are favorable trends, and Evergy has more signed large-load visibility than many peers, but regulated utilities must fund the buildout first and earn returns only if regulators approve recovery.
At about 22x TTM EPS and with the stock still above its 200-day moving average, EVRG has limited room for execution errors even after the pullback from the highs. Margin of safety improves if price retreats toward $80 or lower while guidance, rate recovery, and financing assumptions remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.01 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $19.13 billion, verified from $83.01 times 230.51 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 230.51 million current shares outstanding | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue about $6.03 billion and TTM net income about $882 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.962 billion, cross-validated against Evergy release, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Evergy 2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP earnings to common | $855.6 million, or $3.66 diluted EPS | Evergy 2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.69 adjusted, compared with $0.55 a year ago, on $162 million adjusted earnings | Evergy Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.14 to $4.34, midpoint $4.24, reaffirmed on May 7, 2026 | Evergy Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Load and growth guidance | Retail load growth CAGR of 7% to 8% through 2030 and adjusted EPS growth expected to exceed 8% annually from 2028 | Evergy Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $18.4 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $15.88 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Negative $1.10 billion, on operating cash flow of $1.96 billion and capex of $3.06 billion | StockAnalysis EVRG cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 22.11x TTM EPS, 19.14x forward earnings, 1.88x book value, negative 5.74% FCF yield, and 3.35% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 14 analysts with a $91.88 average price target, range $80 to $103, updated July 24, 2026 | StockAnalysis EVRG forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average $84.53, 200-day moving average $80.01, RSI 39.34, 20-day average volume 2.06 million | StockAnalysis EVRG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This EVRG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, financing, weather, or market sentiment change.
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