Lowe's Companies, Inc. research snapshot
LOW AI stock analysis currently reads Lowe's as a data-rich home improvement retailer with strong free cash flow, a fourth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales, faster online growth, and a raised dividend, but a stock that has fallen to the lower part of its 52-week range. This Lowe's AI stock analysis treats the LOW AI stock forecast as a scenario range, not a fixed price call. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LOW closed near $207.81 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization near $116.52 billion. Q1 FY2026 sales rose 10.3% to $23.078 billion with comparable sales up 0.6%, and management affirmed full-year 2026 sales of $92.0 to $94.0 billion with adjusted EPS of $12.25 to $12.75. The LOW AI stock forecast depends on housing turnover, DIY traffic, Pro and online momentum, acquisition integration, leverage, and whether that fiscal 2026 guidance holds through the August 19, 2026 earnings report.
Current price
$207.81 close on July 31, 2026; $208.38 in after-hours trading
Market cap
$116.52 billion verified market cap
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative home improvement retailer with improving Pro and online momentum, a weak near-term chart, high debt, and more attractive valuation support
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 45, a weak chart through July 31, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lowe's sells home improvement products, appliances, tools, building materials, services, and Pro-focused distribution through a large store and digital network. The business is relevant and cash generative, but demand is tied to housing, repair, remodel, consumer confidence, and project size. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand awareness, national scale, store density, vendor relationships, omnichannel fulfillment, private brands, loyalty data, and growing Pro capabilities. It is real but narrower than Home Depot's Pro advantage. | Medium-high |
| Management | Marvin Ellison has repositioned Lowe's around the Total Home strategy, productivity, digital execution, online growth, and Pro penetration. Q1 FY2026 delivered a 10.3% sales increase, 0.6% comparable growth, and a 4% dividend increase, but the test remains FBM and ADG integration without overloading the balance sheet. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $86.286 billion and net earnings were $6.654 billion. TTM revenue reached $88.43 billion with net income near $6.62 billion. Q1 FY2026 sales rose 10.3% to $23.078 billion with comparable sales up 0.6%, while GAAP EPS was $2.90 and adjusted EPS $3.03. | High |
| Valuation | At $207.81, LOW screens near 17.57x TTM EPS, 16.34x forward EPS, 1.32x sales per share, 15.29x free cash flow per share, and a 2.41% dividend yield. The valuation is more supportive than it was in early July, but it still needs stable earnings and debt discipline. | High |
| Technical trend | LOW closed near $207.81 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 45 and 14-day ADX near 14. The chart is weak and near the lower part of the 52-week range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include elevated mortgage rates, weak DIY traffic, delayed big-ticket projects, tariff and input-cost pressure, Home Depot competition, acquisition integration, high total debt of about $42.5 billion, and negative shareholder equity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company and StockAnalysis data agree on the core numbers. Forecast confidence is lower because housing-cycle timing and integration performance dominate the forward path. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | LOW offers a quality retail franchise at a more moderate multiple, but the stock needs either stronger housing data, cleaner Pro integration, a technical reclaim of the 200-day average, debt reduction, or a proven earnings path to raise certainty. | Medium |
LOW AI stock forecast
The LOW AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings are sensitive to comparable sales, Pro penetration, online growth, gross margin, acquisition amortization, interest expense, and capital returns. Using a $207.81 price reference, TTM EPS of $11.83, and the financial_rigor.py three-scenario model with 7%, 3%, and -5% EPS growth and 20x, 17x, and 13x exit multiples over three years, the mechanical outcomes are about $289.80 in a bullish case, $219.80 in a base case, and $131.90 in a bearish case before dividends.
$280 to $300 before dividends
More likely if mortgage rates ease, housing turnover improves, fiscal 2026 comparable sales exceed the flat to 2% outlook, FBM and ADG expand Pro wallet share, operating margin recovers, and the market values LOW near 20x higher earnings.
$210 to $230 before dividends
More likely if Lowe's holds fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, comparable sales stay slightly positive, online and Pro gains offset weak DIY demand, acquisition costs remain controlled, and the multiple holds around the mid-to-high teens.
$125 to $145 before dividends
More likely if DIY demand weakens further, large projects stay delayed, tariffs or input costs pressure margins, integration debt weighs on cash flow, or investors reprice LOW closer to a 13x earnings multiple.
LOW AI technical analysis
LOW AI technical analysis is weak as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $207.81, market cap near $116.52 billion, a 20-day moving average near $210.88, a 50-day moving average near $214.46, a 100-day moving average near $225.29, a 200-day moving average near $239.31, RSI near 44.92, and 20-day average volume near 2.97 million shares. The price sits near the 52-week low of $199.40.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $207.81 close; $208.38 after hours | StockAnalysis showed the July 31 close and a small after-hours gain. |
| Immediate support | $206 to $210 | This zone brackets the July 31 day low near $206.02 and the 20-day moving average near $210.88. |
| Trend support | $199 to $202 | The 52-week low is $199.40 and the lowest analyst target is $202. A break below this area would signal that housing and balance-sheet concerns are driving price action. |
| Near resistance | $211 to $215 | This area includes the 20-day moving average near $210.88 and the 50-day moving average near $214.46, the first overhead cluster. |
| Major resistance | $225 to $239 | This range surrounds the 100-day moving average near $225.29 and the 200-day moving average near $239.31. A reclaim would improve the longer-term trend read. |
| Upper resistance | $263 to $293 | StockAnalysis listed an analyst target near $262.91 and a 52-week high of $293.06. These are not forecast guarantees. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $210.88, 50-day $214.46, 100-day $225.29, 200-day $239.31 | Price below every major average points to a weak or repairing trend rather than a confirmed uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.92, ADX near 13.7 | Momentum is neutral to soft. A stronger signal would need price to reclaim the 50-day average and push toward the 200-day average. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.97 million shares | Volume around housing data, Lowe's August 19 earnings, guidance updates, and acquisition commentary should be watched for confirmation. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 32.5% | Barchart reported elevated near-term volatility, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 19 earnings report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $199, or failed reclaim of $214 to $215 | A sustained close below the 52-week low would weaken the base-building setup. A failure at the 50-day area keeps trend confidence limited. |
LOW AI trading strategy
The LOW AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects technical levels with comparable sales, Pro momentum, online growth, DIY traffic, gross margin, acquisition integration, interest expense, free cash flow, and debt reduction.
Watch for LOW to hold the $206 to $210 area, reclaim the $211 to $215 resistance cluster, and then work toward the $225 to $239 200-day zone with improving volume, stable fiscal 2026 guidance, and better housing data.
A failed move above the 50-day moving average followed by a close below $199 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers comparable-sales or margin expectations at the August 19 report.
If LOW retests the low $200s without a permanent earnings reset, compare the lower price with free cash flow per share near $13.59, a 2.41% dividend yield, debt reduction, and whether Pro and online gains are offsetting weak DIY demand.
Do not treat every pullback as attractive if total debt rises, integration costs surprise, gross margin weakens, or free cash flow cannot fund dividends and deleveraging.
Track comparable sales, Pro sales, online sales growth, DIY transactions, average ticket, appliance demand, FBM and ADG contribution, operating margin, interest expense, free cash flow, total debt, the August 19 earnings report, and housing turnover.
Position sizing should reflect that Lowe's can be a good business while still producing weak stock returns if bought before housing demand and the technical trend recover.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Lowe's for convenient home improvement products, project supplies, appliances, installation services, job-site support, and digital ordering. The economic engine is a national store network, vendor scale, Pro relationships, online fulfillment, and recurring repair and remodel needs.
The moat is built on brand familiarity, store density, procurement scale, loyalty data, omnichannel fulfillment, and growing Pro capabilities. It is durable but not absolute because Home Depot has stronger Pro scale and specialty distributors compete for trade customers.
The thesis fails if higher rates keep housing turnover low, consumers postpone discretionary projects, acquisition debt absorbs cash flow, Pro expansion disappoints, or the market decides that a mid-to-high teens multiple is too high for low growth.
Marvin Ellison's team has focused on Total Home, productivity, digital tools, online growth, Pro penetration, and disciplined capital returns. The next proof point is the August 19, 2026 earnings report and whether FBM and ADG integration create lasting growth after a large debt-funded M&A cycle.
Repair and remodel demand has long-term support from aging housing stock, home equity, and professional contractor needs. The near-term headwinds are affordability, weak turnover, inflation fatigue, and customers delaying larger discretionary projects.
The current price implies that Lowe's can protect earnings through a soft housing market and later benefit from Pro growth and a housing recovery. Margin of safety is moderate, not high, because debt is elevated and the chart sits below the 200-day moving average near the 52-week low.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $207.81 close on July 31, 2026; $208.38 after hours | StockAnalysis overview | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $116.52 billion, verified as $207.81 x 560.71 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 560.71 million, down 0.89% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | Revenue $88.43 billion, up 6.24%; net income $6.62 billion | StockAnalysis financials | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales | $86.286 billion, up 3.12% from $83.674 billion | Lowe's FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $6.654 billion | Lowe's FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 sales and comps | $23.078 billion sales, up 10.3%; comparable sales up 0.6%; online sales up 15.5% | Lowe's Q1 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 EPS | $2.90 GAAP diluted EPS; $3.03 adjusted diluted EPS | Lowe's Q1 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.244 billion as of May 1, 2026 | Lowe's Q1 FY2026 results and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Total debt and net debt | $42.540 billion total debt; about $41.296 billion net debt | Lowe's Q1 FY2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Operating cash flow $9.835 billion, capital expenditures $2.216 billion, free cash flow $7.619 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 17.57x PE, 16.34x forward PE, 1.32x PS, 15.29x P/FCF, 12.62x EV/EBITDA, 2.41% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $5.00 annual run rate, $1.25 quarterly after a 4% increase, 54 years of growth, payout 42.27% | StockAnalysis dividends and Lowe's dividend announcement | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day MA $210.88, 50-day MA $214.46, 100-day MA $225.29, 200-day MA $239.31, RSI 44.92 | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $199.40 to $293.06 | StockAnalysis overview | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $262.91 across 35 analysts, low $202, median $270, high $300 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 19 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell out of 35 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $279 to $252, BofA Securities $257, Jefferies $278, Truist $255, Telsey $280 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts, TipRanks | August 1, 2026 |
| Short interest | 11.09 million shares short, 1.98% of shares outstanding, 3.67 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 outlook | Sales $92.0 to $94.0 billion, comps flat to up 2%, operating margin 11.2% to 11.4%, GAAP EPS $11.75 to $12.25, adjusted EPS $12.25 to $12.75 | Lowe's Q1 FY2026 results | August 1, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 19, 2026, before market open | StockAnalysis earnings calendar | August 1, 2026 |
This LOW AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available company filings, market data, analyst estimates, and assumptions as of the stated data cutoff, and they can be wrong if earnings, rates, housing demand, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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