Lennar Corporation research snapshot
LEN AI stock analysis reads Lennar Corporation as a large U.S. homebuilder with national scale, a disciplined asset-light model, and clear exposure to affordability pressure. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LEN traded near $82.35 with a verified market value near $19.84 billion. The Q2 2026 report, released June 11, showed net earnings of $305 million, home-sale gross margin of 15.6%, backlog down to 16,818 homes, and a full-year 2026 delivery target that management lowered to about 82,000 to 83,000 homes. The stock now sits below book value, near the lower end of its 52-week range, and analysts carry a consensus Hold with an average target near $87. The caution is that EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have been cut toward $5.54 while mortgage rates, incentives, and land costs still pressure margin recovery.
Current price
$82.35
Market cap
$19.84 billion verified market cap
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Scaled homebuilder trading below book value with weak near-term earnings momentum and a lowered full-year delivery outlook
Trend status
Bearish technical trend: price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near the 52-week low, with RSI near 42
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lennar builds and sells homes across U.S. markets, supported by mortgage, title, insurance, multifamily, land, and technology-related activities. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on scale purchasing, local market density, land pipeline control, construction process knowledge, and finance attachments, but it is cyclical rather than monopoly-like and narrows when affordability falls. | Medium-high |
| Management | Stuart Miller serves as Executive Chairman, CEO and President with more than 40 years at Lennar, and the company recently added Jim Parker as Chief Operating Officer and David Grove as EVP Homebuilding. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $34.2 billion and net earnings were about $2.06 billion, while TTM revenue fell to about $32.74 billion and TTM net earnings fell to about $1.60 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $82.35, verified math shows about 12.80x trailing EPS, 0.92x book value, 27.68x free cash flow per share, and a 2.43% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is below its 50-day moving average near $87.79 and 200-day moving average near $103.08, with RSI near 42.03 and the 52-week low of $79.83 nearby. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-to-high because Lennar is exposed to mortgage rates, affordability, buyer incentives, land costs, consumer sentiment, delivery guidance cuts, and operating leverage. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because source coverage is deep and key figures cross-validated. Forecast confidence is medium because rate and housing-cycle variables dominate near-term outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. LEN looks statistically cheap below book value after a drawdown, but the thesis needs evidence that margin compression, orders, and delivery guidance are stabilizing. | Medium-low |
LEN AI stock forecast
The LEN AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $82.35 stock price, $6.43 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $105 in a bull case, $77 in a base case, and $44 in a bear case before dividends.
$95 to $110
More likely if mortgage rates fall, consumer confidence improves, Lennar holds deliveries near the lowered 82,000 to 83,000 guidance, incentives ease from Q2 levels, gross margin recovers toward 16% to 17%, and investors value the builder near a 13x earnings multiple.
$70 to $85
More likely if EPS grows only slowly from the current TTM base, orders remain uneven, margins improve only modestly, and the market values LEN around a low-double-digit earnings multiple, consistent with the average analyst target near $87.
$40 to $55
More likely if affordability worsens, incentives stay high, land costs pressure margins, backlog conversion weakens, deliveries fall below guidance, or homebuilder multiples compress toward the 8x area implied by a deeper housing-cycle downturn.
LEN AI technical analysis
LEN AI technical analysis is bearish but approaching a test of the 52-week low as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $82.35 close on July 31, 2026, day range of $81.95 to $83.80, 2,586,053 shares traded, and a 52-week range of $79.83 to $144.24. StockAnalysis statistics showed a 50-day moving average near $87.79, a 200-day moving average near $103.08, RSI near 42.03, and beta near 1.39.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $82.35 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 31, 2026, used as the reference price for market-cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $80 to $82 | This zone combines the July 31 close near $82.35 with the intraday low near $81.95. |
| Key support | $79.83 | The 52-week low is the line in the sand. A close below it opens a deeper bear case for the housing cycle. |
| Near resistance | $87 to $88 | The 50-day moving average near $87.79 is the first repair level for a short-term rebound. |
| Major resistance | $103 to $104 | The 200-day moving average near $103.08 marks the longer-term trend repair area. |
| Momentum | RSI 42.03 | Momentum is below neutral but not deeply oversold, so a rebound still needs confirmation from price and volume. |
| Volume | 2.59 million shares on July 31 | Barchart placed 20-day average volume near 2.47 million shares, so any breakout should be tested against participation. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.39 | LEN is more volatile than the broad market and can move sharply around rates, housing data, and earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $79.83 | A close below the 52-week low would weaken the stabilization setup and refocus attention on a deeper housing-cycle bear case. |
LEN AI trading strategy
The LEN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with mortgage rates, order trends, incentives, gross margin, backlog, delivery guidance, homebuilding cash, buybacks, and analyst estimate revisions.
Watch for LEN to reclaim and hold the 50-day moving average near $87.79 with improving volume while orders, deliveries, and gross margin show evidence that the affordability cycle is stabilizing.
Treat a failed move above the 50-day average followed by a close below $82 as a warning. A close below the 52-week low of $79.83 weakens the setup.
If LEN retests the $80 to $82 zone without another cut to delivery or margin expectations, compare the reset price with book value near $89.75 per share, homebuilding cash, and the base scenario.
Do not average down only because LEN trades below book value. Require evidence that incentives, cancellations, backlog value, and gross margin are stabilizing.
Track Q3 2026 orders and deliveries, average selling price, incentive levels, home-sale gross margin, backlog homes and value, homebuilding debt to total capital, share repurchases, and mortgage-rate direction.
Lower the rating if deliveries are maintained only through deeper price cuts, if backlog value falls faster than homes, or if gross margin fails to recover from the 15.6% Q2 level.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Lennar for newly built homes and a bundled path to ownership that can include mortgage, title, insurance, and closing services. The core product is shelter, but demand is highly sensitive to monthly payment affordability.
Lennar benefits from national scale, local market density, trade relationships, procurement leverage, land pipeline control, construction process knowledge, and attached financial services. The moat is real but narrows when rates rise and buyers need large incentives.
The thesis fails if mortgage rates stay high, incentives remain elevated, land costs keep compressing margins, backlog falls, buyer cancellations rise, or asset-light land banking introduces hidden cycle risk.
Stuart Miller has spent more than 40 years at Lennar and remains Executive Chairman, CEO and President. The management test is whether Lennar can hold volume, preserve liquidity, reduce cycle risk, and avoid value-destructive growth in a weak housing market.
The long-term U.S. housing shortage supports builders with scale, but the near-term industry trend is constrained by high mortgage rates, affordability pressure, cautious consumers, heavy incentives, and a moderating full-year delivery outlook.
LEN trades near 0.92x book value and 12.80x TTM EPS, below its book value per share of about $89.75. Margin of safety still depends on whether book value is protected and whether earnings can stop falling as the housing cycle resets.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEN quote reference | $82.35 closing price as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis LEN quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $19.84 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $82.35 x 240.90 million shares with 0.01% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 240.90 million shares outstanding, down 6.34% year over year | StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net earnings | $34.19 billion total revenue and about $2.06 billion net earnings, cross-validated within 0.00% | StockAnalysis LEN financials | July 30, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net earnings | $32.74 billion TTM revenue and about $1.60 billion TTM net earnings, with TTM EPS of $6.43 | StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating snapshot | $7.9 billion revenue, $305 million net earnings, $1.24 EPS ($1.31 excluding mark-to-market losses), 21,749 new orders, 20,519 deliveries, 15.6% home-sale gross margin, and $6.6 billion backlog value | Lennar Q2 2026 results press release | June 11, 2026 |
| Q3 and full-year 2026 guidance | Q3 deliveries of 20,500 to 21,500 homes, gross margin improving to about 16%, and full-year 2026 deliveries moderated to about 82,000 to 83,000 homes | Lennar Q2 2026 results press release | June 11, 2026 |
| Homebuilding cash and debt | $1.8 billion homebuilding cash, no revolver borrowings, and 15.8% homebuilding debt to total capital | Lennar Q2 2026 results press release | June 11, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns in Q2 2026 | Repurchased 5 million shares of Lennar common stock for $447 million and redeemed $400 million of 5.25% senior notes due in June 2026 | Lennar Q2 2026 results press release | June 11, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.80x trailing PE, 14.59x forward PE, 0.92x PB, 0.61x PS, 27.68x P/FCF, 2.43% dividend yield, and 1.39 beta | StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $1.85 billion cash, $6.25 billion total debt, $21.77 billion equity, and book value per share of $89.75 | StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical reference data | $87.79 50-day moving average, $103.08 200-day moving average, RSI 42.03, and 20-day average volume of about 2.45 million shares | StockAnalysis and Barchart technical data | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $87 across 18 analysts, low $67 and high $120, median $85 | StockAnalysis LEN forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 8 Hold, 5 Sell, and 3 Strong Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis LEN forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo $85 Hold, Citi $104 to $88 Hold, Barclays $81 to $79 Sell, Goldman Sachs $100 Hold, and BofA Underperform initiation | StockAnalysis LEN forecast and TheFly | July 17, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $32.51 billion with EPS $5.54, FY2027 revenue $33.88 billion with EPS $6.48 | StockAnalysis LEN forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 493,759 shares short, 0.20% of shares outstanding, and 0.18 days to cover | StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $79.83 to $144.24, down about 26.72% over the last 52 weeks | StockAnalysis LEN statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This LEN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if rates, housing demand, margins, incentives, capital allocation, delivery guidance, or market multiples change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
