Dave Inc. research snapshot
DAVE AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Dave Inc. as a fast-growing, profitable U.S. neobank trading at a rich valuation after a sharp run that peaked at a 52-week high of $458.25 on July 21, 2026 and then cooled to a $372.69 close on July 31, 2026. The stock closed down about 18.7% from that high, with a market capitalization near $4.74 billion, re-verified as $372.69 times 12.71 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Dave reported Q1 2026 on May 5, 2026 with revenue up 47% year over year to $158.4 million, adjusted EBITDA up 57% to $69.3 million at a 44% margin, GAAP net income up 101% to $57.9 million, a record Q1 28-day past due rate of 1.69%, and 18% monthly transacting member growth, then raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $710 million to $720 million, adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $16.25 to $16.75. The stock is still up about 55% over the trailing 52 weeks and joined the S&P SmallCap 600 in early June 2026, while the company began transitioning ExtraCash receivables to an off-balance-sheet Coastal Community Bank structure in June 2026 to unlock over $200 million of liquidity, repurchased about 7% of shares outstanding in Q1 2026, and launched its Dave Flex pay-in-four credit product. Offsetting the momentum are an ongoing Department of Justice matter, a 24.97% short interest as a share of float, a beta of 3.83, a short-term downtrend below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages, and a valuation near 23.89x trailing GAAP EPS and 23.03x forward earnings. The AI rating is 74 out of 100 with a profitable growth neobank with regulatory and valuation risk label, and the analysis is informational only, not investment advice.
Current price
$372.69
Market cap
$4.74 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Profitable growth neobank with regulatory and valuation risk
Trend status
Short-term pullback inside a longer-term uptrend above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dave is a U.S. neobank that monetizes short-duration credit, cash advances, banking, and pay-in-four products for everyday Americans, with TTM revenue near $604.62 million, TTM net income near $224.99 million, a TTM net margin near 37%, and 2.99 million monthly transacting members as of Q1 2026. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on proprietary CashAI behavioral underwriting trained on member cash-flow data across about 7 million connected accounts, a 14.5 million plus member base, regulatory scale in small-dollar lending, and brand, but switching costs in digital banking are low and well funded competitors such as Chime and SoFi are expanding into cash advances. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Jason Wilk and CFO and COO Kyle Beilman run a disciplined operation with eight consecutive quarters of raising all guidance metrics, a 1.69% record Q1 28-day past due rate, CAC flat at $18 with a payback period near three months, and Q1 2026 buybacks of about $194.9 million equal to about 7% of shares outstanding. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew 47% year over year in Q1 2026 to $158.4 million with adjusted EBITDA up 57% to $69.3 million, GAAP net income up 101% to $57.9 million, and adjusted EPS up 64% to $3.64, after FY2025 revenue of $554.2 million up 60% and net income of $195.9 million up 238%, with 2026 guidance raised to revenue of $710 million to $720 million and adjusted EPS of $16.25 to $16.75. | High |
| Valuation | At about 23.89x trailing GAAP EPS, 23.03x forward PE, 7.84x sales, and 14.51x trailing free cash flow, the market still prices in strong continued growth even after the pullback from the July 21, 2026 high. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | DAVE closed at $372.69 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of about $339.07, $282.36, and $244.03 but below its 5-day and 20-day averages of about $388.28 and $406.39, with 14-day RSI near 45.66 and 14-day ADX near 27.59 with negative direction above positive direction, confirming a short-term pullback inside a longer-term uptrend after a 52-week high of $458.25 on July 21, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the ongoing Department of Justice matter with no material update, credit losses rising in a downturn for a subprime-adjacent borrower base, intense competition from Chime, SoFi, Empower, and enterprise earned wage access providers, a 24.97% short interest as a share of float, a beta of 3.83, heavy dilution management offset by aggressive buybacks, and a high valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the Q1 2026 earnings call. Lower for forward return estimates because regulatory outcomes, credit cycles, and the Flex ramp are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and DAVE can move sharply on regulatory news and Q2 earnings scheduled for August 5, 2026. | Medium-low |
DAVE AI stock forecast
The DAVE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $372.69 and the raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $16.50. The three-scenario framework projects adjusted EPS three years forward and applies exit multiples: a bearish area near $220, a base area near $465, and a bullish area near $765, before considering future buyback benefits. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$720 to $810
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 30% a year as CashAI v6.0 expands limits, Dave Flex scales in 2027, the Coastal funding structure cuts the cost of capital, the DOJ matter resolves favorably, and investors hold the stock near a 20x to 22x forward multiple.
$430 to $495
More likely if Dave compounds adjusted EPS near 18% a year from the $16.50 guidance midpoint, keeps raising guidance, grows revenue in the high 20s to low 30s, and the multiple settles near 16x to 18x forward earnings as growth normalizes.
$195 to $245
More likely if the DOJ or state regulators restrict advance fees and monetization, credit losses spike in an economic downturn, CAC rises, competition forces lower pricing, growth slows toward single digits, or the market compresses the multiple toward 11x to 13x forward earnings.
DAVE AI technical analysis
DAVE AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $372.69 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $388.28 and $406.39, but above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $339.07, $282.36, and $244.03, with 14-day RSI near 45.66 and 14-day ADX near 27.59 with negative direction above positive direction. After reaching a 52-week high of $458.25 on July 21, 2026, the stock pulled back about 18.7% into the July 31 close, so the setup is a short-term pullback inside a longer-term uptrend with support clustering near the 50-day moving average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $372.69 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, with an after-hours print of $373.52; market cap math uses 12.71 million shares outstanding. |
| Near resistance | $388 to $410 | The 5-day moving average near $388.28 and the 20-day moving average near $406.39 sit above price as of July 31, 2026, so the stock must reclaim these to end the short-term pullback. |
| Major resistance | $458.25 | The 52-week high was set at $458.25 on July 21, 2026, and remains the key overhead level for a resumption of the uptrend. |
| Near support | $339 to $350 | The 50-day moving average near $339.07 reported by both Barchart and StockAnalysis.com as of July 31, 2026 is the first support zone. |
| Next support | $282 to $285 | The 100-day moving average near $282.36 on Barchart is the second support level below the 50-day. |
| 50-day moving average | $339.07 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $339.07, below the current price and rising, which keeps the medium-term trend positive. |
| 200-day moving average | $244.03 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day moving average near $244.03, well below price, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact. |
| 100-day moving average | $282.36 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $282.36 on July 31, 2026, giving a clean medium-term support reference. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46, ADX near 28 | 14-day RSI was near 45.66 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, neutral rather than oversold, and 14-day ADX near 27.59 with negative directional index above positive confirmed the short-term downtrend has real strength. |
| Volume | About 457,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 456,915 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 456,900 as of July 31, 2026, with the July 31 session at about 334,000 shares, so breakouts and breakdowns should be checked against volume. |
| Volatility | Very high, about 52% historical | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 51.9% and 20-day average true range near $24 per day, about 6.5% of price, with a beta of 3.83, so position sizing must tolerate large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $339 | A decisive daily close below the 50-day moving average near $339.07 would break the medium-term uptrend; a close below the 100-day near $282.36 would signal a deeper correction toward the $244 area. |
DAVE AI trading strategy
The DAVE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a volatile growth fintech. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, Q2 earnings on August 5, 2026, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for DAVE to reclaim its 5-day average near $388 and the 20-day near $406 on volume, then to build toward the 52-week high of $458.25, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages still rising below price.
A daily close back below the 50-day moving average near $339, or a failed rally under the $388 to $410 resistance band, should trigger a stop and review because short interest near 25% of float can amplify both breakouts and breakdowns.
If DAVE pulls back toward the $339 to $350 support zone without regulatory or credit damage, compare the price reaction with Q2 results on August 5, 2026, guidance, DOJ updates, and CashAI v6.0 timing before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss, because DOJ headlines or a weak credit print can turn a support zone into a value trap in a 3.83 beta stock.
Track revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, the 28-day past due rate, net monetization, CAC and payback, ExtraCash originations, Dave Card spend, Flex adoption, CashAI v6.0 rollout, Coastal funding liquidity, buyback pace, and DOJ and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence if growth depends mainly on buybacks and fee increases rather than member and ARPU growth, if loss rates rise, or if regulatory headlines change the pricing model.
Investment research summary
Dave lends short-duration credit and provides banking and pay-in-four products to everyday Americans, monetizing advances, interchange, and subscriptions through CashAI-powered underwriting, with 2.99 million monthly transacting members out of a 14.5 million plus member base and a TAM management sizes in the hundreds of millions of consumers.
The moat is behavioral underwriting advantage rather than switching costs. CashAI models trained on member cash-flow data, a large connected account base, regulatory scale in small-dollar lending, and brand give Dave an edge, but competitors like Chime, SoFi, Empower, and enterprise earned wage access providers are well funded.
The thesis fails if the DOJ or regulators restrict advance fees and monetization, credit losses spike in a downturn, the CashAI model degrades after limits expand, member acquisition costs rise, competition forces lower pricing, or the growth algorithm slows faster than the multiple compresses.
Founder and CEO Jason Wilk and CFO and COO Kyle Beilman have delivered eight consecutive quarters of raising all guidance metrics, record Q1 credit of 1.69% 28-day past due, CAC flat at $18 with a payback near three months, and aggressive per-share value creation through about $194.9 million of Q1 2026 buybacks that cut the basic share count about 6% sequentially.
Neobanking and alternative credit keep taking share from traditional banking, and pay-in-four and cash advance remain large markets, but regulation, credit cycles, and low switching costs are structural risks, and Dave joined the S&P SmallCap 600 in early June 2026 as it scaled past $500 million in annual revenue.
At about 23.89x trailing EPS, 23.03x forward earnings, and 14.51x trailing free cash flow, the stock prices in continued strong growth. The pullback from the July 21, 2026 high of $458.25 to $372.69 has improved but not removed valuation risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE price | $372.69 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 1.31% on the day, with an after-hours print of $373.52 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.74 billion, computed as $372.69 x 12.71 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range and change | $152.21 to $458.25, with a 52-week price change of +55.16% and the high reached on July 21, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote, history, and statistics pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $158.4 million, up 47% year over year, with $158.414 million confirmed in the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | Dave Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profitability | Adjusted EBITDA of $69.3 million up 57% at a 44% margin, GAAP net income of $57.9 million up 101%, adjusted net income of $52.3 million up 61%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.64 up 64% | Dave Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating metrics | New members up 22% to 695,000 at a CAC of $18, monthly transacting members up 18% to 2.99 million, ARPU up 24%, ExtraCash originations up 37% to $2.1 billion, net monetization up to 5.1%, record Q1 28-day past due rate of 1.69%, and Dave Card spend up 9% to $534 million | Dave Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Raised 2026 guidance | Revenue of $710 million to $720 million up 28% to 30%, adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $16.25 to $16.75 assuming a 23% effective tax rate, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of raising guidance on all metrics | Dave Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $554.18 million up 59.67% and net income of $195.87 million up 238%, with $554.182 million revenue and $195.865 million net income confirmed in SEC EDGAR XBRL | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $604.62 million, gross profit of $432.62 million, operating income of $211.04 million, net income of $224.99 million, and EPS near $15.60, cross-checked as FY2025 minus Q1 2025 plus Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue mix, TTM and FY2025 | Net processing fees of $516.98 million TTM and $466.84 million in FY2025, subscriptions of $44.35 million TTM and $37.22 million in FY2025, net interchange of $24.68 million TTM, and small contributions from net ATM and other transaction based revenue, with tips falling from $67.56 million in FY2024 to $7.5 million in FY2025 after the fee model transition | StockAnalysis.com financials revenue by segment | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $133.33 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (133327000) from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash plus short-term investments | $175.93 million as of March 31, 2026, while the Q1 2026 earnings release reports total liquidity of $177.8 million including restricted cash | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | Total debt of $268.21 million and net cash of about negative $92 million as of March 31, 2026, reflecting the $200 million 0% convertible notes issued in March 2026, with the statistics page reporting net cash of negative $88.26 million on a slightly different cash definition | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value and equity | Shareholders equity of $203.78 million, book value per share of $14.07, and tangible book value of $190.09 million as of March 31, 2026, with treasury stock of negative $232.17 million reflecting Q1 buybacks | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $326.80 million, capital expenditures of negative $0.30 million, and free cash flow of $326.50 million, with FY2025 free cash flow of $289.71 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 capital allocation | About $194.9 million deployed into share repurchases and RSU net settlements, about 7% of shares outstanding, reducing the basic share count from 13.6 million at year-end 2025 to 12.7 million, with $113.3 million of buyback authorization remaining and about $186.7 million of repurchases funded partly by $175.7 million of net proceeds from the $200 million 0% convertible notes | Dave Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares and float | 12.71 million shares outstanding, 11.40 million current share class, 9.41 million float, insiders owning 20.95% and institutions 89.89% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation | Trailing PE of 23.89, forward PE of 23.03, PS of 7.84, forward PS of 6.33, PB of 23.25, P/FCF of 14.51, EV/EBITDA of 22.11, and no dividend | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Profitability ratios | TTM gross margin of 71.55%, operating margin of 35.83%, profit margin of 37.21%, ROE of 111.59%, ROIC of 72.36%, Altman Z-Score of 8.4, and Piotroski F-Score of 6 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $388.55 across 12 analysts, median $370, low $260, and high $485, about 4.26% above the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell out of 12 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Freedom Capital Markets initiates Hold at $400 on July 30, William Blair reiterates Buy on July 25, UBS raises to $470 from $300 on July 14, KBW raises to $485 from $340 on July 13, and Citizens JMP raises to $450 from $365 on July 9 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 30, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue of $715.16 million up 29.05% with adjusted EPS of $16.66 up 26.44%, and FY2027 revenue of $863.22 million up 20.70% with adjusted EPS of $21.26 up 27.55%, with 3-year revenue growth forecast of 24.91% and EPS growth of 31.83% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.35 million shares short, 18.48% of shares outstanding, 24.97% of float, and 3.81 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $388.28, 20-day near $406.39, 50-day near $339.07, 100-day near $282.36, 200-day near $244.03, 14-day RSI near 45.66, 14-day ADX near 27.59, and 14-day historical volatility near 51.9% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET | StockAnalysis.com quote and GlobeNewswire announcement | July 22, 2026 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion | Dave was announced to join the S&P SmallCap 600 on May 28, 2026, effective before the open on June 1, 2026 | GlobeNewswire and PR Newswire announcements | May 28, 2026 |
| Coastal Community Bank funding | Dave began funding ExtraCash originations through Coastal Community Bank in June 2026, a step in the capital strategy that management expects to unlock over $200 million of incremental liquidity, lower the cost of capital, and repay the existing credit facility | GlobeNewswire release and Q1 2026 earnings call | June 9, 2026 |
| DOJ matter | Dave continues to vigorously defend its position in the Department of Justice matter and gave no material update on the Q1 2026 earnings call | Dave Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| Leadership | Jason Wilk is Co-Founder, CEO, President, and Chairman; Kyle Beilman is CFO and COO; and Gopi Kuchimanchi was appointed Chief Technology Officer on July 7, 2026, with the company headquartered in Los Angeles, California | StockAnalysis.com company profile and GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
This DAVE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, regulatory developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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