SoFi Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
SOFI AI stock analysis reads SoFi Technologies, Inc. as a fast-growing digital financial services company that posted record Q2 2026 results, raised its full-year revenue guidance, and still trades near its 52-week low because investors focused on capital intensity and higher net charge-offs. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $16.31 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $21.04 billion, and the main question was whether strong member and product growth can offset credit, funding, and balance sheet concerns. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$16.31
Market cap
$21.04 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Profitable digital lender with credit and capital intensity risk
Trend status
Downtrend near 52-week lows after a record Q2 and a post-earnings selloff
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SoFi runs a digital bank and finance super app across lending, banking, investing, and technology services. Q2 2026 adjusted net revenue rose 40% to a record $1.2 billion, with a record 1.1 million new members taking total members to 15.8 million. | High |
| Moat | Moat potential comes from brand, a national bank charter, member data, cross-buy economics, and product ecosystem depth. Cross-buy hit a record 51% of new products opened by existing members in Q2, and SoFi Plus passed 200,000 paid subscribers. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Anthony Noto and the team executed a record quarter and raised full-year revenue guidance, but held EBITDA and EPS guidance flat to fund growth, which the market read as rising capital intensity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $4.27 billion, up roughly 41%, with TTM net income of about $636 million and a 14.91% profit margin. FY2026 guidance was raised to adjusted net revenue of $4.75 to $4.85 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At about $16.31, SOFI traded near 31x to 34x TTM earnings and about 22x to 25x forward earnings, so the price still embeds high growth expectations despite the recent decline. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SOFI is in a downtrend and recently printed a 52-week low near $14.88 after Q2 earnings on July 29, followed by a rebound to $16.31 by July 31. The 50-day average near $17.19 and the 200-day average near $21.31 sit above the price, so the trend remains down until reclaim. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if personal loan charge-offs keep rising, funding costs climb, fair value marks keep declining, rate hikes pressure lending, or growth increasingly depends on balance sheet heavy lending. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for reported Q2 2026 results, market data, guidance, and valuation math. Lower confidence for forward returns given credit and rate uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the page gives a research framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
SOFI AI stock forecast
The SOFI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $16.31 cutoff price. It does not claim AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires contained credit losses, delivery or a beat on the raised FY2026 guidance, and a re-rating of the growth story. The base case assumes the company executes while investors stay focused on capital intensity. The bearish case assumes credit, funding, or balance sheet concerns intensify.
$20 to $25
More likely if personal loan charge-offs stay contained, FY2026 adjusted EPS near $0.60 is delivered or beaten, cross-buy keeps lifting non-lending revenue, rate expectations stabilize, and the stock reclaims the post-earnings gap with sustained volume.
$15.50 to $19.50
More likely if the company executes toward the raised $4.75 to $4.85 billion revenue guidance, credit stays roughly in line, and the market holds SOFI near the average analyst target of $19.87 while it digests capital intensity.
$9.50 to $14.50
More likely if net charge-offs exceed expectations, fair value marks keep falling, funding costs rise, rate hikes compress lending demand, or capital needs force balance sheet restraint, with a close below the $14.88 52-week low after the data cutoff.
SOFI AI technical analysis
SOFI AI technical analysis starts from the $16.31 close on July 31, 2026. The stock is in a downtrend that produced a 52-week low of $14.88 in the July 29 post-earnings selloff, then a rebound to $16.31 by July 31. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $16.31 | Latest verified close on July 31, 2026, down 0.97% for the day and near the bottom of the 52-week range. |
| 52-week range | $14.88 to $32.73 | The stock sits in the lower part of the range after a roughly 37% year-to-date decline per Yahoo Finance chart data. |
| Near support | $14.88 to $15.25 | The 52-week low of $14.88 printed in the July 29 selloff. This is the key floor the stock must hold. |
| Secondary support | $13.50 to $14.00 | Estimated downside zone below the 52-week low. A break below $14.88 opens this area. |
| Near resistance | $17.00 to $17.50 | The zone around the 50-day moving average near $17.19. A close above this area would improve short-term momentum. |
| Key resistance | $19.50 to $20.00 | Roughly the pre-earnings level and above the average analyst target of $19.87. Reclaiming it would signal a stronger repair. |
| 50-day moving average | About $17.19 | The 50-day average sits above the July 31 close, confirming the short-term trend is still down until reclaimed. |
| 200-day moving average | About $21.31 | The 200-day average is well above the price, so the longer-term trend remains negative. |
| Momentum | Post-earnings recovery attempt | The July 30 gain of 8.14% was the best day of 2026, but the short-term trend turned down after the July 29 selloff, with RSI near 44 as of August 2. |
| Volume | Elevated volume snapshot | Yahoo Finance showed about 82.95 million shares traded on July 30 against an average near 79.5 million, and StockAnalysis showed about 56.7 million on July 31. |
| Volatility | High, beta near 2.20 | SOFI moves wider than the market, so position sizing must allow large daily ranges. |
| Short interest | About 186 million shares short | Short interest near 14.4% of shares outstanding per StockAnalysis, which can add squeeze risk on positive catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $14.88 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would weaken the setup and open the secondary support zone. |
SOFI AI trading strategy
The SOFI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart data, and fresh filings or earnings checks.
Wait for SOFI to hold above the $14.88 to $15.25 support zone and reclaim the 50-day average near $17.19 and the $17.00 to $17.50 resistance area with volume that confirms buyer demand before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A close below $14.88 or a failed reclaim of resistance should invalidate the setup.
If SOFI revisits the $15.00 to $15.50 zone without a thesis break, compare price action with the next quarterly charge-off, fair value mark, deposit, and funding cost datapoints.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of credit and capital intensity risk.
Track what matters most for the lending, financial services, and technology platform segments: personal loan net charge-offs, 90-day delinquency, fair value marks, deposit growth, loan originations, NIM, FY2026 EPS delivery near $0.60, and analyst rating changes.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headline sentiment without matching financial evidence.
Investment research summary
SoFi is a digital bank and finance super app that converts low-cost member acquisition into cross-buying across lending, banking, investing, and technology services. Q2 2026 adjusted net revenue rose 40% to a record $1.2 billion.
The moat comes from brand, a national bank charter, member data, cross-buy economics, and product ecosystem depth. A record 51% of new products in Q2 were opened by existing members, up from 35% a year earlier.
The thesis can fail if personal loan charge-offs keep rising, funding costs climb, fair value marks keep declining, rate hikes compress lending demand, or growth depends on increasingly balance sheet heavy loans that strain capital.
Anthony Noto and the team delivered a record quarter, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $4.75 to $4.85 billion, but kept adjusted EBITDA near $1.6 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.60 flat to fund growth, which the market read as capital intensity risk.
Digital banking and embedded finance keep gaining share, but consumer credit cycles, funding costs, and rate expectations can overwhelm platform narratives for a lender with a growing balance sheet.
At about $16.31, SOFI traded near 31x to 34x TTM earnings and about 22x to 25x forward earnings. The multiple leaves limited room for disappointment on credit or capital allocation, so margin of safety depends on execution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI price | $16.31 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis real-time quote and Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $21.04 billion, verified as $16.31 x 1.29 billion shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $14.88 to $32.73 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote data | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted net revenue | $1.2 billion, up 40% year over year, a record | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings call transcript via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.12, versus consensus of $0.11 | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings call and TheFly coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Adjusted net revenue of $4.75 to $4.85 billion, adjusted EBITDA of about $1.6 billion, adjusted net income of about $825 million, adjusted EPS of about $0.60 | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $4.27 billion, up roughly 41% | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $636 million, 14.91% profit margin | StockAnalysis financials and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Members and products | 15.8 million members, up 35% year over year; 24.4 million products, up 42% | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Deposits and tangible book value | Deposits of $45.5 billion; tangible book value of $9.5 billion, or $7.34 per share, up 56% year over year | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Personal loan credit | All-in annualized net charge-off rate of 3.7% excluding delinquent loan sales, down 70 basis points; 2.62% including sales, down 41 basis points from Q1 | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | About 31x to 34x TTM PE, about 22x to 25x forward PE, about 4.8x to 4.9x price to sales | financial_rigor.py valuation verification, Yahoo Finance, and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages and short interest | 50-day moving average near $17.19, 200-day near $21.31, RSI near 44, short interest near 14.4% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average 12-month target of $19.87 across about 23 analysts, down from prior targets after Q2 | StockAnalysis analyst summary and Yahoo Finance 1y target | August 2, 2026 |
This SOFI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, credit data, market prices, rate changes, company events, or macro conditions change.
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