Upstart Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
UPST AI stock analysis currently reads Upstart Holdings, Inc. as an AI-powered consumer lending marketplace that earns fees when bank and credit fund partners fund loans through its platform. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 4, 2026 cutoff, the quoted close was $29.43, market capitalization was about $2.82 billion, and Upstart had just reported first-half profitability momentum, a $4 billion Castlelake forward-flow agreement, and conditional approval to establish Upstart Bank. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for after the close on August 4, 2026. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$29.43
Market cap
$2.82 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
AI lending marketplace with improving profitability and high short interest
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Upstart is an AI consumer lending marketplace. It earns platform and referral fees when bank and credit fund partners fund loans, with revenue up about 55% year over year on a trailing basis. | Medium |
| Moat | Moat potential comes from proprietary AI underwriting models, cumulative approval and performance data, and a growing partner network. Model transparency and dependence on third-party capital remain the weak points. | Medium |
| Management | Management secured a $4 billion Castlelake forward-flow agreement and OCC conditional approval for a bank charter. Judge execution by credit loss performance, funding diversification, and GAAP profitability consistency. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 was the first annual GAAP profit since 2021 at $53.6 million. Trailing net income is $49.4 million, but trailing free cash flow is still negative at about -$271 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | Trailing PE is about 66x, Yahoo forward PE about 35x, and price to sales about 2.4x. Margin of safety depends on credit cycle behavior, funding cost stability, and bank charter execution. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | The stock trades below its 50-day moving average of $31.12 and its 200-day moving average of $35.94, with a 52-week range of $23.97 to $85.31. Momentum is still negative over one year. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if credit losses spike, funding partners withdraw, regulatory review blocks the bank charter, or AI model performance degrades. Short interest near 27% of shares outstanding adds two-way volatility. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium data confidence for quote and market cap math and for qualitative mapping. Lower confidence for forward returns, and forward valuation inputs vary widely across sources. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the page gives a framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction, and Q2 2026 earnings were scheduled after the data cutoff. | Medium-low |
UPST AI stock forecast
The UPST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $29.43 close rather than a point target. The bullish case requires origination scaling with the $4 billion Castlelake commitment, margin expansion toward full-year guidance, and the bank charter progressing. The base case assumes mixed execution under credit cycle pressure. The bearish case assumes the main risk path becomes visible.
$54.00 to $76.00
More likely if Upstart Holdings, Inc. sustains origination growth, expands take rates, progresses the bank charter, and grows EPS toward roughly $1.80 to $2.20 with a 30-35x PE, and the price reclaims the moving averages on volume.
$30.00 to $49.00
More likely if revenue grows near the roughly 30% consensus pace, GAAP profitability persists, and valuation stays between trailing and forward multiples while investors wait for the Q2 report and later filings.
$8.00 to $22.00
More likely if these risk paths appear: credit losses spike, funding partners reduce commitments, a regulatory setback delays the bank charter, or AI model performance questions compress the multiple, with support breaking after the data cutoff.
UPST AI technical analysis
UPST AI technical analysis starts from the $29.43 close on August 3, 2026. The 50-day moving average was $31.12 and the 200-day moving average was $35.94, so the stock sits below both. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live momentum and intraday levels should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.43 | Close on August 3, 2026, up about 7.25% on the day. Q2 2026 earnings were scheduled for August 4, 2026 after market close. |
| Near support | $23.97 to $28.00 | The 52-week low is $23.97 and the recent day low printed near $28.00. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $31.12 to $35.94 | The 50-day moving average at $31.12 then the 200-day moving average at $35.94. A close above both would improve short-term momentum. |
| 52-week high | $85.31 | The stock is about 65.5% below its 52-week high, reflecting a large drawdown from prior growth expectations. |
| 50-day moving average | $31.12 | The close is below this level, which keeps short-term trend pressure negative until reclaimed. |
| 200-day moving average | $35.94 | The close is well below this level. Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Neutral RSI with negative one-year trend | RSI was about 48.6 and the stock is down roughly 63% over the last 52 weeks, so momentum remains cautious despite the recent bounce. |
| Volume | Active with high short interest | August 3 volume of about 3.86 million shares was above the 20-day average of about 3.54 million. Short interest is about 27.35% of shares outstanding. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | Beta of about 2.27 and a wide 52-week range indicate extreme price swings. Position sizing must account for this. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23.97 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would weaken the long-term setup significantly. |
UPST AI trading strategy
The UPST AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks, especially around the Q2 earnings release.
Wait for UPST to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $31.12 and then hold above the 200-day moving average near $35.94 with volume exceeding the average.
A close back below the 50-day moving average or below the $23.97 52-week low should invalidate the setup.
If UPST tests the $23.97 to $28.00 support zone without breaking to new lows, compare price action with the Q2 2026 earnings report, origination volume, and UMI macro index data.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the business risk.
Track the evidence that matters most for the AI lending marketplace: origination volumes, take rates, charge-off rates, funding partner additions, bank charter milestones, and margin guidance.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headlines without matching financial evidence.
Investment research summary
Upstart sells AI-powered consumer lending decisions. It earns platform and referral fees when bank and credit fund partners fund the loans, so revenue depends on origination volume, take rates, and the stability of third-party capital.
Moat potential comes from proprietary AI underwriting models, cumulative approval and performance data, and a growing partner network. Model transparency and dependence on third-party capital are the weak points.
The thesis can fail if credit losses spike, funding partners reduce commitments, regulatory review blocks or delays the bank charter, or AI model performance questions cause a valuation re-rating.
Capital allocation shows in the $4 billion Castlelake forward-flow, the renewed Neuberger facility, and the conditional OCC approval for Upstart Bank. Judge results by credit loss performance, funding diversification, and GAAP profitability consistency.
AI-driven credit underwriting keeps gaining share of personal and auto lending as banks partner with fintechs, but the industry faces rising charge-offs, funding concentration, and ongoing regulatory attention.
At $29.43 the market prices strong growth and improving profitability. Margin of safety depends on credit cycle behavior, funding cost stability, and execution of the bank charter plan.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPST price | $29.43 (August 3, 2026 close) | StockAnalysis.com quote page (CBOE market data) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.82 billion, verified as $29.43 x 95.71 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics and quote page | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.17 billion, up about 54.7% year over year | Yahoo Finance key statistics and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) and EPS (TTM) | $49.4 million and $0.41 | Yahoo Finance key statistics and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP results | Revenue $1.04 billion, net income $53.6 million, EPS $0.45. First annual GAAP profit since 2021. | StockAnalysis.com annual financials | August 4, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | About 66.3x trailing EPS of $0.41 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward PE | About 34.7x per Yahoo Finance; StockAnalysis shows a materially lower forward figure, so treat forward inputs as source-sensitive | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com, source variance noted | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt (mrq) | Cash about $474.66 million; total debt about $1.98 billion; net cash about -$1.50 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | About 2.70 (269.84%) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | About -$270.6 million, with operating cash flow about -$267.5 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $23.97 to $85.31 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance quote pages | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 50-day moving average $31.12; 200-day moving average $35.94; RSI about 48.6 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 26.18 million shares, about 27.35% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 15 analysts, average price target $39.80, range $20 to $61 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Key recent events | Q2 2026 results scheduled August 4, 2026; $4 billion Castlelake forward-flow announced July 29, 2026; OCC conditional approval for Upstart Bank announced July 23, 2026; July 2026 originations about $1.4 billion published August 3, 2026 | Business Wire press releases via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 4, 2026 |
This UPST AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, credit conditions, or macro factors change after this page is generated.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
