Chime Financial, Inc. research snapshot
CHYM AI stock analysis currently reads Chime Financial as an asset-light consumer fintech built around digital banking, card payments, earned-wage access, credit building, and short-term liquidity products. The operating picture improved materially in Q1 2026: revenue grew 25% to $647.4 million, Active Members reached 10.2 million, and the company reported $53.5 million of GAAP net income. The caution is that the 2025 annual loss was $1.01 billion after a large IPO-related stock-based compensation charge, competition is intense, bank-partner and regulatory exposure is real, and the stock still trades at a high sales and price-to-free-cash-flow multiple. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the last close was $20.92 and reported market capitalization was about $8.04 billion. This CHYM AI stock analysis uses dated data and scenario ranges for information only, not a guaranteed stock price prediction or investment advice.
Current price
$20.92 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.04 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Fast-growing fintech with first public-company GAAP profit, but short public history and high execution risk
Trend status
Below the 200-day average and above the 50-day average after a volatile rebound
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Chime offers everyday spending, savings, payments, credit building, earned-wage access, instant transfers, and loans through a digital-first member relationship. | High |
| Moat | The practical moat is member trust, direct-deposit relationships, transaction data, product integration, brand awareness, and ChimeCore. It is useful but not protected from SoFi, Cash App, PayPal, traditional banks, and other fintechs. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founders Chris Britt and Ryan King retain substantial voting control. Management is investing in ChimeCore, Chime Prime, enterprise distribution, and buybacks, but the public record is too short to judge capital allocation through a full cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $1.01 billion in 2022 to $2.19 billion in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue grew 25%, gross margin reached 90%, adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, and GAAP net income was $53 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $20.92, CHYM was about 3.0x the midpoint of 2026 revenue guidance and about 56.5x the available trailing free cash flow per share. TTM GAAP EPS remains negative, so a conventional PE ratio is not meaningful. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock was above the 50-day average near $18.83 but below the 200-day average near $21.15. RSI near 61.5 showed positive short-term momentum without proving a durable uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because of regulation, bank-partner dependence, credit losses, interchange economics, data and system incidents, competition, dilution, dual-class voting, and a short earnings history. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for reported financials and operating metrics. Forward confidence is lower because the first profitable quarter benefited from strong growth, tax-season activity, and a large stock-based compensation adjustment history. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | The business has a credible growth engine, but the equity requires continued member growth, credit discipline, and GAAP earnings conversion before the thesis can be considered durable. | Medium-low |
CHYM AI stock forecast
The CHYM AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $20.92, the $2.66 billion to $2.69 billion 2026 revenue guide, and 382.6 million shares reported for March 31, 2026. The midpoint revenue-multiple checks produce about $14.0 per share at 2.0x sales, $21.0 at 3.0x, and $31.5 at 4.5x. These checks are not earnings forecasts. The required EPS model is not decision-useful because trailing GAAP EPS is negative after IPO-related stock-based compensation, so the ranges below are deliberately conditional and wide.
$29 to $38
More likely if 2026 revenue lands above the $2.66 billion to $2.69 billion guide, Active Members and ARPAM keep growing, Chime Prime improves retention and credit-card mix, MyPay and Instant Loans maintain acceptable loss rates, and GAAP profitability becomes repeatable. A premium sales multiple near 4.5x would require sustained growth and better proof of operating leverage.
$18 to $27
More likely if Chime meets its 2026 revenue guide, keeps adjusted EBITDA near the $416 million to $431 million target, grows members at a slower rate, and converts Q1 profitability into positive full-year earnings without a new material credit or regulatory shock. A sales multiple around 3.0x is close to the current setup.
$9 to $16
More likely if member growth slows, interchange economics weaken, MyPay or Instant Loans produce higher losses, bank-partner or regulatory costs rise, Chime Prime increases reward expense, or investors value the business near 1.5x to 2.0x sales while GAAP earnings remain uncertain.
CHYM AI technical analysis
CHYM AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close at $20.92 was above the 50-day moving average near $18.83 but below the 200-day average near $21.15. RSI near 61.5 showed constructive momentum, while the 52-week range of $15.88 to $38.67 and a 52-week price change near negative 34% show that volatility and trend risk remain high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.92 | StockAnalysis historical data recorded the July 10, 2026 close. Technical levels are snapshots, not permanent support or resistance. |
| Near support | $18.00 to $18.50 | This area is close to the 50-day moving average and the May 2026 trading range. A close below it would weaken the recent rebound. |
| Deeper support | $15.88 to $17.25 | The $15.88 level was the available 52-week low and $17.25 was a June 11 closing reference after the post-earnings decline. |
| Near resistance | $21.15 to $22.18 | The 200-day average was near $21.15 and the July 10 intraday high was $22.18. A sustained reclaim would improve the intermediate trend. |
| Higher resistance | $26.50 to $27.00 | The $27 IPO price is a visible reference area. Reaching it would require both price confirmation and continued fundamental delivery. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $18.83, 200-day $21.15 | StockAnalysis technical statistics snapshot reviewed July 11, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI 61.53 | The reading is positive but not, by itself, evidence of a durable trend or a reliable reversal signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 6.13 million shares | The July 10 session traded about 3.49 million shares, below the reported 20-day average. Volume expansion would make a move through $22.18 more credible. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $15.88 to $38.67; 52-week change about negative 34% | The short public trading history and large range make gap risk material around earnings, regulation, and guidance updates. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $15.88 | A decisive break below the available 52-week low would invalidate the current rebound framework and require a fresh thesis review. |
CHYM AI trading strategy
The CHYM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with member growth, revenue mix, credit losses, regulatory developments, and GAAP earnings quality.
Watch for CHYM to reclaim $21.15 to $22.18 and hold that zone with volume above the 20-day average. A later move toward $26.50 to $27.00 would need continued revenue growth, stable loss rates, and improving GAAP earnings.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $18.00 should reduce confidence. A break below $15.88 invalidates the short-term rebound setup.
If CHYM revisits $18.00 to $18.50 while Active Members, ARPAM, Purchase Volume, and credit loss rates remain healthy, compare the price with updated 2026 revenue and earnings evidence before treating the area as support.
Do not average down solely because the stock is below its IPO price. A weaker member trend, higher loss rate, or regulatory event can make historical support unreliable.
Track Q2 revenue against the $633 million to $643 million guide, full-year revenue of $2.66 billion to $2.69 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $416 million to $431 million, Active Members, ARPAM, Purchase Volume, card mix, MyPay and Instant Loan losses, bank-partner disclosures, cash, stock-based compensation, and buybacks.
Reduce confidence if growth depends on adjusted metrics while GAAP profitability, cash conversion, credit quality, or dilution moves in the wrong direction.
Investment research summary
Customers use Chime to spend, receive paychecks, save, move money, build credit, and access short-term liquidity through a mobile relationship. Chime earns much of its revenue from card-network interchange and adds platform-related revenue from products such as MyPay and Instant Loans. The company is a technology platform, not an FDIC-insured bank, and deposits are provided through The Bancorp Bank or Stride Bank.
The moat is practical rather than absolute. Chime had 10.2 million Active Members in Q1 2026, direct-deposit relationships, high-frequency payment data, a recognizable consumer brand, and a proprietary ChimeCore processor and ledger. Its machine learning platform supports fraud, risk, underwriting, personalization, and member support. Competitors can still match features, incentives, and distribution.
The thesis fails if member acquisition becomes expensive, members do not make Chime their primary financial relationship, interchange economics deteriorate, credit losses rise, or the company cannot maintain reliable systems. MyPay and Instant Loans can increase engagement and revenue but also expose Chime to credit, funding, partner, and regulatory risk. A large IPO-related stock compensation charge also shows why adjusted profitability needs careful interpretation.
Co-founder and CEO Chris Britt and co-founder and director Ryan King retain all outstanding Class B shares, which carry 20 votes per share. At December 31, 2025, Britt held about 34.2% and King about 30.8% of voting power. Management completed the ChimeCore migration, launched Chime Prime, expanded Chime Enterprise, and authorized an additional $200 million buyback in Q1 2026. The key open question is whether growth investments and repurchases create durable per-share value after dilution and compliance costs.
Digital payments, mobile banking, earned-wage access, credit building, and financial wellness are long-term technology shifts. Chime competes with traditional banks, SoFi, Cash App, PayPal, Affirm, Klarna, and other fintechs. The industry opportunity is broad, but network rules, interchange regulation, bank-partner oversight, consumer protection, fraud, and credit underwriting can change the economics quickly. Chime says it was the leading choice for new checking account openings in a May 2026 company-commissioned survey, which is a useful brand signal but not an independent market-share measure.
At $20.92, CHYM was about 3.0x the midpoint of 2026 revenue guidance, about 5.55x book value per share using the March 2026 balance sheet, and about 56.5x trailing free cash flow per share using the available StockAnalysis snapshot. TTM GAAP EPS remains negative, so PE cannot establish a margin of safety. The current price requires continued growth, repeatable GAAP profitability, and stable credit and regulatory economics.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHYM closing price | $20.92 | StockAnalysis historical prices, S&P Global Market Intelligence data | July 10, 2026 close |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.04 billion reported market cap; 382.60 million shares in Q1 10-Q | StockAnalysis market cap and Chime Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 market cap; March 31, 2026 share count |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.187 billion, up 31% year over year | SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis cross-check | February 25, 2026 results and February 26, 2026 filing |
| FY2025 net loss and operating cash flow | $1.010 billion net loss; $52.8 million operating cash flow | Chime FY2025 Form 10-K | February 26, 2026 filing |
| Q1 2026 revenue and GAAP profit | $647.4 million revenue; $53.5 million net income; 90% gross margin | Chime Q1 2026 results and SEC 10-Q | May 6, 2026 results; May 7, 2026 filing |
| Q1 2026 member and payments metrics | 10.2 million Active Members; $263 ARPAM; $39 billion Purchase Volume | Chime Q1 2026 results | May 6, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $1.011 billion combined as of March 31, 2026 | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | March 31, 2026 balance-sheet date |
| 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance | $2.66 billion to $2.69 billion revenue; $416 million to $431 million adjusted EBITDA | Chime Q1 2026 results | May 6, 2026 |
| TTM valuation snapshot | Negative TTM EPS; 5.55x price to book; 56.5x price to free cash flow using $20.92 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial rigor calculation | July 11, 2026 market-data check |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day $18.83; 200-day $21.15; RSI 61.53; 20-day volume 6.13 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Founder voting control | Chris Britt about 34.2% and Ryan King about 30.8% of voting power at December 31, 2025 | Chime FY2025 Form 10-K | December 31, 2025 ownership date |
This page is an information tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Market prices, technical levels, financial results, and company guidance can change after the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Verify current filings and market data before making any decision.
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