Yum! Brands, Inc. research snapshot
YUM AI stock analysis currently reads Yum! Brands as a high-quality, asset-light quick-service restaurant franchisor that beat Q2 2026 earnings expectations but now faces a near-term Taco Bell sales drag from a multi-state cyclospora outbreak. Q2 EPS excluding Special Items of $1.62 beat the $1.56 consensus, and results excluding Pizza Hut showed 7% system sales growth, 6% unit growth, and 4% same-store sales growth. The August 2, 2026 setup is not a cheap-stock signal: StockAnalysis showed YUM at $153.28 on July 31, 2026, with a verified $41.85 billion market value, a trailing P/E near 19.3x that is flattered by Pizza Hut divestiture gains, a forward P/E near 22.6x, and a 1.96% dividend yield. The YUM AI stock forecast depends on whether Taco Bell U.S. same-store sales recover, KFC unit growth stays near the long-term algorithm, the Pizza Hut sale closes in August, and whether the premium multiple holds. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$153.28
Market cap
$41.85 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality QSR franchisor with a Q2 2026 earnings beat and Pizza Hut divestiture on track, offset by a Taco Bell food-safety sales hit and a premium forward multiple
Trend status
Neutral to soft: the stock pulled back below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after Q2 earnings and the Taco Bell cyclospora news
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Yum! Brands earns royalties, franchise fees, property revenue, company-store sales, advertising service revenue, and technology-related economics across KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit. Excluding Pizza Hut, Q2 2026 showed 7% system sales growth, 6% unit growth, and 4% same-store sales growth. | High |
| Moat | The moat is brand and scale based: KFC global reach, Taco Bell U.S. loyalty and digital leadership, franchisee relationships, menu innovation, Byte technology, advertising scale, and purchasing knowledge. Switching costs for consumers remain low. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Chris Turner is executing a focused KFC and Taco Bell strategy: Q2 2026 beat estimates, the Pizza Hut sale to Yum China and LongRange Capital is expected to close in August, and the company targets 5% unit growth and 7% system sales growth over the long term. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 8.81% to $8.214 billion and net income rose 4.91% to $1.559 billion. Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $3.08 (boosted by Pizza Hut divestiture gains) and EPS excluding Special Items was $1.62, beating the $1.56 consensus. | High |
| Valuation | At $153.28, YUM trades near 19.3x trailing GAAP EPS (flattered by divestiture gains), near 22.6x forward adjusted EPS, near 24.9x free cash flow, a 1.96% dividend yield, and negative book value due to leveraged capital returns. | High |
| Technical trend | YUM closed below its Barchart 50-day and 200-day moving averages after Q2 earnings, with a 14-day RSI near 49.7. The prior constructive setup has turned neutral pending evidence that the Taco Bell sales impact is temporary. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the cyclospora food-safety fallout and recovery pace at Taco Bell, consumer trade-down, chicken and beef input costs, labor inflation, franchisee health, China and emerging-market exposure through partners, leverage, Pizza Hut separation execution, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official Yum filings, the Q2 2026 earnings release and call, StockAnalysis, SEC data, and Barchart align on the main operating and market facts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company quality case is stronger than the margin-of-safety case. The stock needs Taco Bell same-store sales to recover, KFC to keep compounding, and investors to keep paying a premium for a cleaner, franchise-led portfolio. | Medium |
YUM AI stock forecast
The YUM AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $153.28 July 31, 2026 close and the consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $6.62, Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a bearish area near $123, a base area near $180, and a bullish area near $233 before dividends over three years. The forecast is most sensitive to Taco Bell recovery, KFC unit growth, Pizza Hut sale proceeds, and whether investors keep paying a premium for the refranchised model.
$225 to $240
More likely if Taco Bell U.S. same-store sales recover to pre-outbreak trends, KFC unit growth stays near the long-term algorithm, the Pizza Hut sale closes in August with proceeds returned to shareholders, EPS compounds near 12%, and the market values YUM near 25x forward earnings.
$170 to $190
More likely if Taco Bell trends steadily improve through Q3, KFC and Habit hold recent momentum, the Pizza Hut close and buybacks proceed as planned, EPS compounds near 9%, and the market pays about 21x forward earnings for a cleaner QSR franchisor.
$115 to $130
More likely if the Taco Bell sales impact lingers, Q3 guidance disappoints, KFC or Taco Bell comps cool, Pizza Hut separation creates stranded costs, leverage limits flexibility, or YUM is re-rated closer to 17x forward earnings.
YUM AI technical analysis
YUM AI technical analysis is neutral as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $153.28 and a 52-week range of $137.33 to $170.14. Barchart listed the 50-day moving average near $153.74, the 200-day near $154.22, and the 100-day near $155.54, with a 14-day RSI near 49.71 and a 20-day average volume near 2.83 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $153.28 | StockAnalysis July 31, 2026 close used for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $150 to $152 | Area around the July 31 session low of $152.21 and the round $150 level. A hold here supports a short-term stabilization. |
| Deeper support | $145 to $147 | Area near the StockAnalysis analyst low price target of $147. A move below this zone would signal a broader pullback. |
| Near resistance | $155 to $156 | Area around the Barchart 100-day moving average of $155.54. A reclaim would help repair the short-term trend. |
| Upper resistance | $158 to $161 | Area around the July 31 session high of $158.05 and the round $160 zone. Volume strength is needed to extend past it. |
| 52-week range | $137.33 to $170.14 | StockAnalysis range shows the quote below the midpoint after the post-earnings pullback from the upper end of the range. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $153.74, 100-day $155.54, 200-day $154.22 | Barchart showed price below all three major references, so the setup is neutral until price reclaims the moving-average zone. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI about 49.71 | Momentum is neutral rather than oversold. A sustained recovery in Taco Bell sales would be needed to turn the trend constructive. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 2.83 million shares | Breakouts above the $155 to $161 area are more useful if volume runs above the recent average. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $4.83, beta about 0.55 | The 14-day average true range is about 3.15% of price. Beta is low, but earnings, outbreak news, and transaction timing can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $145 | A sustained close below $145 would shift the setup from neutral to range repair and increase downside risk toward the 52-week low. |
YUM AI trading strategy
The YUM AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personalized advice. It combines Taco Bell same-store sales recovery, KFC unit growth, Pizza Hut transaction timing, buybacks, valuation discipline, and moving-average confirmation.
Watch whether YUM reclaims the $154 to $156 moving-average zone and holds above $152, while Q3 evidence confirms Taco Bell same-store sales are recovering and KFC unit growth stays near the long-term algorithm.
A close below $145 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it comes with a slower Taco Bell recovery, lower digital mix, or management commentary about stranded Pizza Hut costs.
If YUM pulls back toward the $145 to $150 area while the Pizza Hut close proceeds, buybacks continue, and Taco Bell trends improve, compare the lower price with updated EPS and buyback assumptions.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive. If the selloff reflects a longer Taco Bell recovery or weaker franchisee economics, the lower multiple may be justified.
Track Taco Bell U.S. same-store sales by period, KFC unit openings and same-store sales, Habit momentum, digital mix, Pizza Hut close timing and net proceeds, buybacks, debt, franchisee health, and cyclospora investigation developments.
Position sizing should reflect the premium forward valuation and high leverage. A cleaner portfolio after Pizza Hut does not remove QSR demand or balance-sheet risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Yum restaurant systems for fast, familiar, value-oriented meals across chicken, Mexican-inspired food, pizza, and burgers. Shareholders mainly own a franchisor that converts franchisee sales into royalties, fees, technology economics, and capital returns, with Pizza Hut exiting to sharpen the portfolio.
The moat comes from global brand memory, franchise density, marketing scale, menu development, operating playbooks, Byte technology, and purchasing knowledge. It is not protected by high consumer switching costs, so value, speed, taste, trust, and franchisee returns must keep proving themselves.
The thesis fails if Taco Bell same-store sales stay weak after the cyclospora outbreak, KFC loses local relevance, Pizza Hut separation causes stranded costs, franchisees face margin pressure, debt absorbs cash flow, or the market stops valuing YUM as a premium QSR compounder.
Chris Turner is reshaping Yum around focus, technology, and capital returns. The Q2 2026 beat, the Pizza Hut sale to Yum China and LongRange Capital, and the plan to return most net proceeds raise the bar for execution because proceeds must create more value than the divested earnings base.
Quick-service restaurants benefit from convenience, digital ordering, delivery, global middle-class consumption, and franchise-led unit growth. The offset is intense competition, value-sensitive consumers, food inflation, labor pressure, food-safety events, and brand fatigue.
The current price embeds confidence in a Taco Bell recovery, long-term unit growth, and cleaner post-divestiture earnings. The three-scenario model leaves upside if EPS growth and buybacks compound, but downside is material if the multiple resets toward slower-growth restaurant peers.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUM quote reference | $153.28 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $41.85 billion calculated from $153.28 x 273.00 million shares, 0.01% variance versus StockAnalysis reported market value | StockAnalysis market data and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 273.00 million shares outstanding, down 1.41% year over year | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $8.214 billion, net income $1.559 billion, diluted EPS $5.55, operating cash flow $2.010 billion | StockAnalysis financials and Yum! Brands 2025 annual report | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating snapshot | Excluding Pizza Hut: system sales +7%, unit growth +6%, same-store sales +4%. GAAP EPS $3.08, EPS excluding Special Items $1.62 versus $1.56 consensus | Yum! Brands Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Brand-level Q2 2026 trend | KFC system sales +6% (unit growth +7%, same-store sales +2%); Taco Bell same-store sales +7%; Habit same-store sales +4% | Yum! Brands Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $674 million; total debt $12.28 billion; net cash position negative $11.60 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and dividend | TTM free cash flow $1.68 billion, FCF per share $6.15, annual dividend $3.00, dividend yield 1.96% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Pizza Hut divestiture | Yum agreed to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7 billion in the aggregate to Yum China and LongRange Capital, with a possible additional $75 million earn-out, expects about $2.3 billion of net proceeds, and targets closing in August 2026 | Yum! Brands Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast | Consensus Buy from 25 analysts, average price target $173.86, low $147, high $200, median $175 | StockAnalysis stock forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $153.74, 100-day $155.54, 200-day $154.22, 14-day RSI 49.71, 20-day average volume 2.83 million shares | Barchart technical analysis | August 1, 2026 |
This YUM AI Stock Analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, assumptions, and market references as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong.
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