Yum! Brands, Inc. research snapshot
YUM AI stock analysis currently reads Yum! Brands as a high-quality, asset-light quick-service restaurant franchisor whose near-term story improved after Q1 2026 Taco Bell same-store sales growth of 8%, KFC unit growth of 7%, record digital system sales mix of 63%, and the announced $2.7 billion Pizza Hut sale. The July 9, 2026 setup is not a simple cheap-stock signal: StockAnalysis showed YUM at $169.84 on July 7, 2026, with a verified $46.81 billion market value, 27.39x EPS using Pineify calculation, and 28.40x free cash flow per share. The YUM AI stock forecast depends on whether KFC, Taco Bell, technology fees, refranchised economics, and buybacks can offset leverage, consumer value pressure, and execution risk after Pizza Hut exits the reporting base. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$169.84
Market cap
$46.81 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Franchise-led QSR compounder with Taco Bell strength, KFC global scale, Pizza Hut divestiture upside, and premium valuation risk
Trend status
Constructive trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, close to the upper end of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 9, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Yum! Brands earns royalties, franchise fees, property revenue, company-store sales, advertising service revenue, and technology-related economics across KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit, with more than 63,000 restaurants globally before the Pizza Hut sale closes. | High |
| Moat | The moat is brand and scale based: KFC global reach, Taco Bell U.S. momentum, franchisee relationships, menu innovation, digital ordering, Byte by Yum technology, advertising scale, and purchasing knowledge. Switching costs for consumers remain low. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Chris Turner is moving Yum toward a more focused KFC and Taco Bell led portfolio, with the Pizza Hut sale, incremental $4 billion buyback authorization, technology platform fees, and long-term 5% unit growth target as the key capital allocation tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9% to $8.214 billion and net income rose 5% to $1.559 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $2.059 billion, GAAP EPS was $1.55, and EPS excluding Special Items rose 15% to $1.50. | High |
| Valuation | At $169.84, YUM trades near 27.39x TTM EPS, 28.40x free cash flow per share, a 1.77% dividend yield, and negative book value due to leveraged capital returns. | High |
| Technical trend | YUM is technically constructive because the quote is above Barchart 50-day and 200-day moving-average references, with RSI readings mostly in the 55 to 65 zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are consumer trade-down, chicken and beef input costs, labor inflation, franchisee health, China and emerging-market exposure through partners, leverage, Pizza Hut separation execution, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official Yum filings, official releases, StockAnalysis, SEC data, and Barchart align on the main operating and market facts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company quality case is stronger than the margin-of-safety case. The stock needs unit growth, Taco Bell durability, KFC global execution, and effective capital returns to justify the premium multiple. | Medium |
YUM AI stock forecast
The YUM AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $169.84 July 7, 2026 StockAnalysis quote reference, TTM EPS of $6.20, and a three-year earnings multiple model, Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a bearish area near $125, a base area near $195, and a bullish area near $253 before dividends. The forecast is most sensitive to EPS growth, Pizza Hut sale proceeds, and whether investors keep paying a premium for the refranchised model.
$240 to $255
More likely if Taco Bell keeps leading U.S. QSR comps, KFC unit growth stays near the long-term algorithm, the Pizza Hut sale closes in Q3 2026, Byte by Yum and digital mix raise franchise economics, EPS compounds near 12%, and the market values YUM near 29x earnings.
$185 to $200
More likely if EPS compounds near 8%, KFC and Taco Bell offset the loss of Pizza Hut reporting scale, buybacks use proceeds without adding balance-sheet stress, and the market pays about 25x earnings for a cleaner QSR franchisor.
$115 to $130
More likely if consumer value pressure hurts traffic, KFC or Taco Bell comps cool, the Pizza Hut separation creates stranded costs, leverage limits flexibility, or YUM is re-rated closer to 19x earnings.
YUM AI technical analysis
YUM AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 9, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7, 2026 price reference of $169.84 and a 52-week range of $137.33 to $169.95. Barchart listed 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $154.19 and $153.85, with 14-day RSI near 62.49 and 20-day average volume near 2.33 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $169.84 | StockAnalysis July 7, 2026 quote reference used for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $156 to $157 | Area around the Barchart 20-day and 100-day moving-average references. A hold here supports the short-term trend. |
| Deeper support | $153 to $154 | Area around Barchart 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A break would weaken the current constructive setup. |
| Near resistance | $170 to $174 | Area near the StockAnalysis 52-week high of $169.95 and the StockAnalysis average analyst target of $173.71. |
| 52-week range | $137.33 to $169.95 | StockAnalysis range shows the quote near the high end, so fresh upside needs strong volume and earnings support. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $154.19, 200-day $153.85 | Barchart showed price above both major moving-average references, a constructive but not risk-free trend signal. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI about 62.49 | Momentum is positive but not deeply overbought. A failure near the 52-week high would reduce confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 2.33 million shares | Breakouts above the $170 to $174 area are more useful if volume runs above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.56 | StockAnalysis reported a low beta, but earnings, Pizza Hut transaction timing, and buyback updates can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $153 | A sustained close below the 50-day and 200-day area would shift the setup from constructive to range repair. |
YUM AI trading strategy
The YUM AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personalized advice. It combines brand-level comps, unit growth, Pizza Hut transaction timing, buybacks, valuation discipline, and moving-average confirmation.
Watch whether YUM holds above the $153 to $157 moving-average zone and closes above $170 to $174 with volume confirmation, while Q2 2026 results confirm Taco Bell and KFC momentum.
A close below $153 should reduce setup confidence, especially if the move comes with weaker same-store sales, lower digital mix, or management commentary about stranded Pizza Hut costs.
If YUM pulls back toward the mid-$150s while KFC unit growth, Taco Bell comps, franchise fee growth, and free cash flow stay intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS and buyback assumptions.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive. If the selloff reflects weaker franchisee economics or a lower post-Pizza Hut growth outlook, the lower multiple may be justified.
Track worldwide system sales, same-store sales by brand, KFC unit openings, Taco Bell U.S. traffic, digital system sales mix, Pizza Hut close timing, net proceeds, share repurchases, debt, franchisee health, and restaurant input costs.
Position sizing should reflect the premium valuation and high leverage. A cleaner portfolio does not remove QSR demand or balance-sheet risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Yum restaurant systems for fast, familiar, value-oriented meals across chicken, Mexican-inspired food, pizza, and burgers. Shareholders mainly own a franchisor that converts franchisee sales into royalties, fees, technology economics, and capital returns.
The moat comes from global brand memory, franchise density, marketing scale, menu development, operating playbooks, technology tools, and purchasing knowledge. It is not protected by high consumer switching costs, so value, speed, taste, and franchisee returns must keep proving themselves.
The thesis fails if Taco Bell slows, KFC loses local relevance, Pizza Hut separation causes stranded costs, franchisees face margin pressure, debt absorbs cash flow, or the market stops valuing YUM as a premium QSR compounder.
Chris Turner is reshaping Yum around focus, technology, and capital returns. The Pizza Hut sale and incremental $4 billion buyback authorization raise the bar for execution because proceeds must create more value than the divested earnings base.
Quick-service restaurants benefit from convenience, digital ordering, delivery, global middle-class consumption, and franchise-led unit growth. The offset is intense competition, value-sensitive consumers, food inflation, labor pressure, and brand fatigue.
The current price embeds confidence in long-term unit growth and cleaner post-divestiture earnings. The three-scenario model leaves upside if EPS growth and buybacks compound, but downside is material if the multiple resets toward slower-growth restaurant peers.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUM quote reference | $169.84 on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data | July 9, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $46.81 billion calculated from $169.84 x 275.62 million shares, 0.00% variance versus StockAnalysis reported market value | StockAnalysis market data and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 9, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 275.62 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis market data | July 9, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $8.214 billion, net income $1.559 billion, diluted EPS $5.55, operating cash flow $2.010 billion | Yum! Brands 2025 annual report | July 9, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating snapshot | Worldwide system sales +6%, same-store sales +3%, unit count +5%, GAAP EPS $1.55, EPS excluding Special Items $1.50 | Yum! Brands Q1 2026 earnings release | July 9, 2026 |
| Brand-level Q1 2026 trend | KFC system sales +6% ex-FX and units +7%; Taco Bell system sales +10% and same-store sales +8%; Pizza Hut system sales flat ex-FX | Yum! Brands Q1 2026 earnings release | July 9, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $689 million; total debt $13.14 billion; net cash position negative $12.46 billion | Yum! Brands Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and dividend | TTM free cash flow $1.65 billion, FCF per share $5.98, annual dividend $3.00, dividend yield 1.77% | StockAnalysis statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| Pizza Hut divestiture | Yum agreed to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7 billion, expects about $2.3 billion of net proceeds, and authorized an incremental $4 billion buyback | Yum! Brands Pizza Hut transaction release | July 9, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $154.19, 200-day moving average $153.85, 14-day RSI 62.49, 20-day average volume 2.33 million shares | Barchart technical analysis | July 9, 2026 |
This YUM AI Stock Analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, assumptions, and market references as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong.
