Starbucks Corporation research snapshot
SBUX AI stock analysis reads Starbucks as a global coffee brand whose Back to Starbucks turnaround is now producing measurable results. The July 31, 2026 close was $105.25, about $119.96 billion in verified market value, with a trailing PE of 60.46, a forward PE of 35.77, and a 2.36% dividend yield. Starbucks reported Q3 fiscal 2026 with the fourth consecutive quarter of global comparable-store sales growth (up 7.9%), two consecutive quarters of margin expansion, and a raised fiscal 2026 outlook. The main question for the SBUX AI stock forecast is no longer whether the plan works, but how much of the recovery is already priced in at a forward PE near 36. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$105.25
Market cap
$119.96 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Turnaround delivering: four quarters of comparable-sales growth and a raised fiscal 2026 outlook, but the recovery is now largely priced in
Trend status
Constructive trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the stock near its 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Starbucks sells habitual beverage, food, and store experience occasions through company-operated stores, licensed stores, and channel development including packaged coffee, ready-to-drink products, and the Global Coffee Alliance. | High |
| Moat | The moat is brand-led and scale-led: brand habit, premium locations, global store density, rewards data, supplier scale, and licensed partnerships. Switching costs remain low. | Medium-high |
| Management | Brian Niccol is delivering on Back to Starbucks: four straight quarters of comparable-sales growth, two straight of margin expansion, a completed China joint venture, and a raised fiscal 2026 outlook. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q3 fiscal 2026 global comps rose 7.9%, GAAP EPS rose 86% to $0.91, non-GAAP EPS rose 70% to $0.85, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded 430 basis points to 14.4%. | High |
| Valuation | At $105.25, SBUX trades near 60.46x trailing EPS, 35.77x forward EPS, 3.13x sales, and 32.94x free cash flow, with a 2.36% dividend yield. The recovery is largely priced in. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above both the reported 50-day and 200-day moving averages (golden cross), with RSI near 54.5. Resistance near $108.37 and the $109.23 52-week high still matter. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are China joint venture execution, U.S. traffic sustainability, labor and coffee inflation, tariff volatility, food availability execution, negative book equity, and a full valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The analysis has high data confidence because SEC filings, company releases, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends, AltIndex, and Barchart agree on the main financial and technical base. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business durability is stronger than entry-price certainty. The stock now trades near its 52-week high with a forward PE near 36, leaving limited cushion for execution misses. | Medium |
SBUX AI stock forecast
The SBUX AI stock forecast uses scenario math, not a guaranteed price target. Using the $105.25 July 31, 2026 close, the fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint near $2.60, and a three-year earnings recovery model, the tested range spans a bearish area near $50 to $65, a base area near $90 to $105, and a bullish area near $125 to $150 before dividends. The narrow gap between the current price and the base case reflects a recovery that is now partly priced in.
$125 to $150
More likely if U.S. and global comps stay above 6%, North America margins keep expanding beyond the 13.6% reported in Q3, the China joint venture stabilizes, and investors pay a mid-to-high 30s multiple on EPS that approaches $3.60 to $4.00.
$90 to $105
More likely if Starbucks executes its raised fiscal 2026 guidance of $2.55 to $2.65 non-GAAP EPS, comps near 6.0%, margins hold above 11.0% non-GAAP, and the market values recovered EPS near a 30x multiple, keeping price near current levels.
$50 to $65
More likely if comp growth fades after being supported by tariffs and menu launches, labor and coffee costs absorb margin gains, the China joint venture underperforms, or the multiple compresses toward the low 20s on a stalled $2.60 EPS base.
SBUX AI technical analysis
SBUX AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2026 cutoff. AltIndex reported the stock near $105.25, a 50-day moving average near $103.80, a 200-day moving average near $98.80, support near $86.22, resistance near $108.37, and RSI near 54.8. Barchart showed the 50-day near $102.34, the 200-day near $94.89, and a 14-day RSI near 54.39. Both sources show price above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with the 50-day above the 200-day, a golden cross.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $105.25 | July 31, 2026 close reference used for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $102 to $105 | Zone around the reported 20-day and 50-day moving averages (Barchart MA50 $102.34, AltIndex MA50 $103.80). A hold here supports the short-term trend. |
| Deeper support | $86.22 | AltIndex listed this six-month support level. A durable break would change the setup from recovery to trend damage. |
| Near resistance | $108.37 | AltIndex listed this resistance level, just below the $109.23 52-week high. A close above it would confirm the breakout. |
| 52-week range | $77.99 to $109.23 | StockAnalysis reported this range, putting the July 2026 quote near the upper end. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $102.34 to $103.80, 200-day $94.89 to $98.80 | Two technical sources show price above both major averages, with the 50-day above the 200-day, a golden cross. |
| Momentum | RSI about 54.3 to 54.8 | Neutral momentum. The setup is neither oversold nor clearly exhausted. |
| Volume | Latest Q3 earnings day volume about 12.39 million, 20-day average near 7.5 to 7.7 million | A breakout above resistance is more useful if it comes with volume above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.96, 14-day historic volatility about 20.9% annualized | Market-like beta, but restaurant earnings, China headlines, coffee prices, and tariff news can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $102, then $86.22 | A close below the 50-day area weakens the recovery trade. A durable break below $86.22 invalidates the larger six-month support structure. |
SBUX AI trading strategy
The SBUX AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personalized advice. It combines turnaround milestones, moving-average confirmation, support and resistance, and valuation discipline.
Watch whether SBUX holds above the $102 to $105 moving-average zone and closes above $108.37 and the $109.23 52-week high with improving volume, while Q4 fiscal 2026 results confirm continued comp and margin progress.
A close back below the 50-day area should reduce setup confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to weaker traffic, higher labor cost, or coffee cost pressure.
If SBUX pulls back toward the low $90s or high $80s while comps and rewards engagement remain positive, compare the lower price with updated EPS recovery and free cash flow yield near 3.0%.
Do not treat a cheaper stock price as automatically cheap. If the pullback reflects fading comp momentum, the lower multiple may be justified.
Track U.S. and global comparable sales, transactions versus ticket, North America margin, International margin, China joint venture results, store count, non-GAAP EPS against the $2.55 to $2.65 guidance, coffee costs, tariffs, free cash flow, and debt reduction.
Position sizing should reflect that the forward PE near 36 prices in a successful recovery. A high brand score does not remove valuation risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Starbucks for habitual caffeine, beverage customization, store access, loyalty rewards, convenience, and a trusted premium brand. The business works when frequency, speed, store labor, and pricing remain aligned.
The moat is brand-led and scale-led rather than contract-led. Starbucks has global store density, rewards data, supplier scale, licensed partnerships, and beverage habit, but consumers can still switch to local cafes, quick-service restaurants, at-home coffee, or lower-price competitors.
The thesis fails if comp growth was bought with tariffs and menu momentum that do not last, labor and coffee costs absorb sales leverage, the China joint venture underperforms its target, food availability slows throughput, or the stock multiple compresses faster than EPS recovers.
Brian Niccol has delivered measurable results: four straight quarters of comparable-sales growth, two straight of margin expansion, a completed China joint venture that retains 40% ownership, tariff refunds captured, and a raised fiscal 2026 outlook with a balance-sheet cleanup of about $1.3 billion in notes.
Specialty coffee benefits from daily routines, cold beverage innovation, mobile ordering, global middle-class consumption, and premium convenience. The offset is that coffee is competitive, inflation-sensitive, labor-intensive, and exposed to real estate and commodity costs.
The current price embeds a successful recovery. Forward PE near 35.77 and a quote near the 52-week high leave a thin margin of safety, so base-case valuation support depends on faster earnings normalization through the $2.55 to $2.65 non-GAAP EPS guidance path.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX quote reference | $105.25 at July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $119.96 billion calculated from $105.25 x 1.1398 billion shares, 0.00% variance versus reported market value | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.14 billion shares outstanding; Q3 fiscal 2026 diluted weighted average shares were 1.1438 billion | StockAnalysis statistics and Starbucks Q3 fiscal 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 results | Global comps +7.9% (transactions +4.2%, ticket +3.5%); GAAP EPS $0.91; non-GAAP EPS $0.85; net revenues $9.3227 billion, down 1% reflecting the Starbucks China transaction | Starbucks Q3 fiscal 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 segment results | North America revenues $7,395.1 million (+7%), operating margin 13.6%; International revenues $1,322.6 million, operating margin 19.1%; Channel Development revenues $587.9 million (+22%), operating margin 52.1% | Starbucks Q3 fiscal 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance (raised) | U.S. comps slightly greater than 6.0%; global comps nearing 6.0%; consolidated net revenues flat to slight growth; non-GAAP operating margin greater than 11.0%; non-GAAP EPS $2.55 to $2.65; 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses | Starbucks Q3 fiscal 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| China joint venture | Completed April 2026 with funds managed by Boyu Capital; Starbucks retains 40% ownership and keeps the Starbucks brand and intellectual property; about $1.3 billion of China proceeds used for note tender offers | Starbucks Q3 fiscal 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 baseline | Revenue $37.184 billion; net earnings attributable to Starbucks $1.856 billion | Starbucks FY2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financial data | Revenue $38.34 billion, net income $1.98 billion, EPS $1.74, operating margin 10.37%, free cash flow $3.64 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $3.61 billion; total debt $22.45 billion; net cash -$18.84 billion; book value -$7.67 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 60.46, forward PE 35.77, PS 3.13, P/FCF 32.94, EV/EBITDA 29.89, dividend yield 2.36% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average price target $110.74 (+4.88% vs current), consensus Buy from 36 analysts; EPS growth forecast (3Y) 19.88% | StockAnalysis forecasts | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | AltIndex price $105.25, MA50 $103.80, MA200 $98.80, support $86.22, resistance $108.37, RSI 54.8 | AltIndex SBUX technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving-average cross-check | Barchart MA50 $102.34, MA200 $94.89, 14-day RSI 54.39, 20-day average volume 7.70 million | Barchart SBUX technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
This SBUX AI Stock Analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if comparable sales, China joint venture execution, labor costs, coffee prices, tariffs, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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