Domino's Pizza, Inc. research snapshot
DPZ AI stock analysis reads Domino's Pizza as a proven, asset-light franchise system that is gaining order counts and market share even while the broader U.S. QSR industry posts flat order counts. The offset is a second straight quarter of muted same-store sales: Q2 2026 U.S. comps rose only 0.1%, international comps fell 0.1% excluding currency, and average ticket declined because the premium series and Slice Sauce launch did not resonate. Revenue rose 4.3% to $1.19 billion, diluted EPS rose 6.8% to $4.07, the leverage ratio improved to 4.3x, and the stock rallied about 7% after the July 20, 2026 report. At the July 31, 2026 close of $347.44, DPZ trades near 19.7x trailing EPS and 17.2x forward EPS, below the 200-day average near $372. The DPZ AI stock forecast therefore hinges on whether the new Q3 pizza innovation, renewed value messaging, and incoming CEO Joe Jordan can lift ticket and comps without slowing order growth. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$347.44
Market cap
$11.49 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Franchise-quality pizza operator with resilient order growth, mixed same-store sales, improving leverage, and a CEO transition in October 2026
Trend status
Recovering but mixed: the stock is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages yet below the 200-day moving average after a deep 2026 drawdown
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Domino's operates the largest pizza system by global scale, with 22,531 stores at June 14, 2026, about 99% franchised, and a royalty, advertising, and supply-chain model that converts retail sales into strong cash flow. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate to strong: brand recall, digital ordering habits, loyalty membership, advertising scale, franchise density, and supply-chain purchasing power matter, but pizza customers can switch quickly and value sensitivity is high. | Medium-high |
| Management | Russell Weiner is finishing his term as CEO with his last earnings call, and Joe Jordan, the current COO, becomes CEO on October 1, 2026, with Weiner moving toward Executive Chairman. The handoff is planned, but it arrives during softer same-store sales. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 5.0% to $4.94 billion and net income rose 3.0% to $601.7 million. Q2 2026 revenue rose 4.3% to $1.19 billion, diluted EPS rose 6.8% to $4.07, and the leverage ratio improved to 4.3x from 4.7x. | High |
| Valuation | At $347.44, DPZ trades near 19.68x trailing EPS, 17.16x forward EPS, 17.59x trailing free cash flow, a 2.29% dividend yield, and negative book value because of leveraged recapitalization and buybacks. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but below the 200-day average near $372, with 14-day RSI near 62 and 14-day ADX near 32, so the setup is a recovering trend rather than a confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are pizza price competition, falling average ticket, lower-income consumer pressure, franchisee profitability, food and labor costs, high debt, negative equity, international softness tied partly to Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, aggregator economics, and CEO transition execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the earnings release, Q2 2026 call transcript, SEC filings, StockAnalysis, and Barchart align on core data, with gross margin presentation noted as a minor source gap. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Domino's is a strong operator, but the equity case requires confidence that ticket weakness is fixable and that order growth, delivery partnerships, and menu innovation can keep the franchise model compounding despite leverage. | Medium |
DPZ AI stock forecast
The DPZ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $347.44, trailing EPS of $17.66, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $247, a base area near $379, and a bullish area near $517 before dividends, using 3-year EPS growth of 0%, 6%, and 10% with exit multiples of 14x, 18x, and 22x.
$500 to $530
More likely if the Q3 pizza innovation and Best Deal Ever with Stuffed Crust lift ticket and orders together, U.S. comps reach low single digits, international comps turn positive again, and EPS compounds near 10% while investors pay about 22x earnings.
$365 to $395
More likely if EPS compounds near 6%, net store growth stays around 975 to 1,000 stores per year, delivery partnerships keep adding orders, leverage stays near 4x, and the market values DPZ around 18x earnings.
$235 to $260
More likely if pizza price competition intensifies, average ticket keeps falling, U.S. comps stay near flat, international comps remain negative, franchisee economics weaken, or investors re-rate DPZ closer to 14x earnings as some targets near $270 imply.
DPZ AI technical analysis
DPZ AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The $347.44 close on July 31, 2026 sits above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but below the 200-day average near $372.57, with 14-day RSI near 62 and 14-day ADX near 32, so confirmation depends on holding above the $324 to $335 zone and reclaiming the $372 area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $347.44 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis, used as the August 2, 2026 quote reference for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $324 to $335 | Zone around the 20-day moving average near $324.46 and the 100-day moving average near $335.21 from Barchart. A hold here would keep the recovery intact. |
| Near support | $314 to $316 | Area around the 50-day moving average near $314.64 from StockAnalysis and Barchart. Losing this zone would signal that the rebound is fading. |
| Deeper support | $282 to $290 | Recent 52-week low area of $282.00 cited in market data. Losing this zone would mark a failed recovery. |
| Near resistance | $350 to $356 | Cluster around the 5-day moving average near $350.74 and round numbers above the July close. Reclaiming it would improve short-term trend quality. |
| Higher resistance | $372 to $382 | Area around the 200-day moving average near $372.57. This is the larger repair level after the 2026 drawdown and sits near the analyst median target of $375. |
| Moving averages | 20-day about $324, 50-day about $315, 200-day about $373 | Barchart and StockAnalysis references are close: DPZ is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages but below the 200-day average as of the research cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI near 62, ADX near 32 | 14-day RSI of about 62.36 and 14-day ADX of about 32.09 on Barchart confirm a recovering uptrend with positive directional pressure. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.03 million shares | StockAnalysis cited about 1.03 million average volume and Barchart about 1.03 million. Breaks above resistance need volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | ATR near $13.25, 14-day historical volatility near 37% | Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $13.25 and 14-day historical volatility near 36.9%, so earnings, guidance, and CEO transition news can still create large moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $314 | A durable break below the 50-day moving average near $314.64 would weaken the setup; a close below $282 would shift focus from recovery to demand and valuation risk. |
DPZ AI trading strategy
The DPZ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines same-store sales, average ticket, order-count data, delivery partnership results, franchisee economics, leverage, free cash flow, CEO transition milestones, and technical invalidation levels.
Look for DPZ to hold above $324 to $335, then reclaim the $372 area near the 200-day moving average while U.S. comps, ticket, and order growth improve together across Q3 and Q4.
A failed hold above $324 or a close back below $314 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it comes with another quarter of falling average ticket or lowered demand commentary.
If DPZ revisits $282 to $314 while free cash flow remains resilient and franchisee economics do not deteriorate, compare the lower price with updated EPS, FCF yield, debt, and restaurant peer multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the decline reflects persistent ticket weakness, rising food or labor costs, international softness, or a material multiple reset.
Track U.S. same-store sales, average ticket, international same-store sales excluding currency, global net store growth, Uber and DoorDash contribution, the Q3 pizza innovation, supply-chain margin, free cash flow, debt, leverage ratio, repurchases, and Joe Jordan transition updates.
Position sizing should reflect that DPZ has high financial leverage, negative book equity, and a consumer category where value perception and ticket levels can shift quickly.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Domino's for fast, familiar, value-oriented pizza through delivery and carryout. Franchisees supply most store-level capital, while the company earns royalties, fees, supply-chain profit, and cash flow from a global system of 22,531 stores as of June 14, 2026.
The moat comes from brand awareness, ordering data, app habit and loyalty membership, store density, national advertising, franchise know-how, and food supply chain scale. It is not protected by high switching costs, so price, ticket, speed, quality, and convenience must be defended continuously.
The thesis fails if falling average ticket is not a fixable mix problem, franchisees lose unit economics, delivery aggregators take too much margin, international markets including Domino’s Pizza Enterprises keep dragging comps, food inflation returns, or debt limits flexibility during a sales slowdown.
The planned CEO transition from Russell Weiner to Joe Jordan, effective October 1, 2026, provides internal continuity and franchisee credibility. The open question is whether the new CEO can restore ticket growth while keeping franchisees profitable and preserving capital discipline.
Quick-service restaurants benefit from convenience, digital ordering, delivery, loyalty, and value meals, but the pizza category is mature and competitive. Long-term winners need strong unit economics, menu innovation, loyalty data, and marketing efficiency, which favors scale leaders like Domino’s.
The stock trades well below its 52-week high of $477 and below the 200-day average, at about 17x forward EPS, so a large part of the 2026 derating is already priced. The three-scenario model shows upside if ticket and comps normalize, while downside remains meaningful if same-store sales stay weak.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ quote reference | $347.44 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.49 billion calculated from $347.44 x 33.08 million shares, compared with $11.49 billion StockAnalysis market cap, 0.03% variance | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 results | Revenue $4.94 billion, net income $601.7 million, diluted EPS $17.57, free cash flow $671.5 million | StockAnalysis financials cross-checked with company filings | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $1.1944 billion up 4.3%, income from operations $232.0 million up 3.1%, net income $135.8 million up 3.6%, diluted EPS $4.07 up 6.8% | Domino's Q2 2026 results release | July 20, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 same-store sales | U.S. stores up 0.1%, U.S. company-owned stores up 2.1%, U.S. franchise stores flat, international stores down 0.1% excluding foreign currency, global retail sales up 3.0% excluding foreign currency | Domino's Q2 2026 results release | July 20, 2026 |
| Store count | 22,531 stores at June 14, 2026, including 7,231 U.S. stores and 15,300 international stores, with 209 net openings in Q2 2026 and 995 in the trailing four quarters | Domino's Q2 2026 results release | July 20, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $164.84 million, total debt $5.12 billion, net cash position of negative $4.96 billion or negative $149.87 per share | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Leverage ratio | 4.3x as of June 14, 2026, down from 4.7x a year earlier | Domino's Q2 2026 results release | July 20, 2026 |
| Cash flow and shareholder returns | First half 2026 free cash flow $313.6 million, Q2 buybacks of 443,917 shares for $156.2 million, $1.23 billion remaining authorization, and a $1.99 per share quarterly dividend declared July 14, 2026 | Domino's Q2 2026 results release | July 20, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 19.68x trailing EPS, 17.16x forward EPS, 17.59x trailing free cash flow, 2.29% dividend yield, negative book value per share | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis price, EPS, FCF, dividend, and balance sheet data | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull case $517, base case $379, bear case $247 using 3-year EPS growth of 10%, 6%, and 0% with target PE of 22x, 18x, and 14x | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | U.S. same-store sales up low single digits, international same-store sales up low single digits, about 175 net U.S. stores and about 800 net international stores, global retail sales growth up mid single digits, operating income growth up mid to high single digits excluding foreign currency, refranchising gains, and the aircraft gain | Domino's Q2 2026 earnings call | July 20, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $386.74 across 30 analysts, low $270 and high $522, median $375 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 15 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 30 analysts | StockAnalysis recommendation trends | July 27, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Bank of America reiterates $450, Deutsche Bank raises $385 to $400, UBS maintains $375, J.P. Morgan maintains $380, BMO Capital lowers $450 to $420, Oppenheimer lowers $465 to $415, RBC raises $325 to $350, Wells Fargo raises $325 to $350, TD Cowen raises $295 to $310 | StockAnalysis forecast and TipRanks headlines | July 27, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.27 million shares short, 9.89% of shares outstanding, 3.31 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average near $324.46, 50-day near $314.64, 100-day near $335.21, 200-day near $372.57, 14-day RSI near 62.36, 14-day ADX near 32.09, 20-day average volume near 1.03 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| CEO succession | Joe Jordan, current COO, becomes CEO on October 1, 2026, with Russell Weiner transitioning toward Executive Chairman; two new independent directors were appointed in July 2026 with Corie Barry elected Lead Independent Director | Domino's Q2 2026 earnings call and director announcement | July 20, 2026 |
This DPZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, same-store sales, average ticket, debt, management execution, market sentiment, or macro conditions change.
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