McDonald's Corporation research snapshot
MCD AI stock analysis reads McDonald's as a durable global quick-service restaurant franchisor that now trades near the low end of its 52-week range after about a year of multiple compression. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $270.64, market capitalization was about $192.29 billion, and the stock sat below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Q1 2026 global comparable sales grew 3.8%, revenue rose 9.4% year over year, and the company just launched its McDonald's NEXT growth plan, but consumer caution, low-income pressure, and a bearish moving-average alignment keep the setup mixed. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$270.64
Market cap
$192.29 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality global franchise at a lower multiple, but trend and traffic still need to confirm
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the low end of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | McDonald's monetizes global restaurant demand through a heavily franchised system with rent, royalties, company-operated sales, brand marketing, and digital loyalty engagement. Q1 2026 global comparable sales grew 3.8%. | High |
| Moat | Brand habit, restaurant density, franchisee capital, real estate control, marketing scale, supply-chain buying power, and convenience create a wide moat. | High |
| Management | Chris Kempczinski remains Chairman and CEO. The new McDonald's NEXT plan, unveiled in June 2026, focuses on automation, food and drink quality, social marketing, and hospitality, with an investor day expected in September 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $27.45 billion, TTM net income was $8.68 billion, and Q1 2026 revenue rose 9.42% with EPS of $2.78. | High |
| Valuation | At $270.64, MCD trades around 22.3x TTM EPS, 7.0x sales, 27.3x TTM free cash flow, with a 2.75% dividend yield. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day moving average near $274.88 and its 200-day moving average near $300.50, with RSI around 49 to 51, so the technical read is cautious. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are consumer caution, low-income spending pullback, gas price pressure on restaurant traffic, franchisee margin stress, labor and food inflation, competition from emerging chains, debt load, and further multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis has high data confidence, while return forecasts remain scenario estimates rather than predictions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business certainty is stronger than valuation certainty. A durable franchisor at roughly 22x earnings can reward patient holders, but the moving averages and traffic data are not confirming yet. | Medium |
MCD AI stock forecast
The MCD AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a fixed target. Using TTM EPS near $12.13, an August 2026 price near $270.64, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $212, a base area near $300, and a bullish area near $361 before dividends. Dividends can add to total return, but the price outcome depends mainly on EPS growth, traffic recovery, value perception, and the market multiple.
$350 to $370
More likely if comparable sales keep growing across major segments, value menus protect traffic, the NEXT strategy lifts food quality and store economics, China expansion to 10,000 stores by 2028 stays on track, and investors pay a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$295 to $315
More likely if EPS compounds near 4% annually, dividend growth continues near 5%, value menus defend traffic, and MCD holds a low-20s earnings multiple while the stock repairs above its 50-day moving average.
$200 to $225
More likely if consumer caution deepens, low-income traffic weakens, gas prices pressure restaurant spending, franchisee margins tighten, or the market keeps repricing slow-growth restaurant franchisors toward a high-teens multiple.
MCD AI technical analysis
MCD AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $270.64 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $274.88 and the 200-day moving average near $300.50, with RSI around 49 to 51 and a bearish moving-average alignment. That keeps the trend reading negative until the stock reclaims the 50-day and then the 200-day.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $270.64 | StockAnalysis reported MCD closing near $270.64 on July 31, 2026, the last verified close used for this page. |
| Near support | $260.96 to $262.80 | This combines the reported 52-week low near $260.96 and the AltIndex six-month support area near $262.80. |
| Deeper support | $250 | The low analyst price target sits near $250, which also aligns with a round-number psychological area below the 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $274.88 to $280 | The 50-day moving average near $274.88 is the first overhead area. Reclaiming it would be an early repair signal. |
| Upper resistance | $295.80 to $300.50 | AltIndex listed the 200-day moving average near $295.80 and StockAnalysis near $300.50. This zone defines the main trend-reversal level. |
| Major resistance | $330.47 | AltIndex reported the six-month resistance near $330.47, which would matter only if price repairs above the 200-day average. |
| 50-day SMA | $274.88 | Trading below this level keeps the short-term read cautious; reclaiming it with volume would be the first repair signal. |
| 200-day SMA | $300.50 | The stock is well below this level, so the longer moving-average signal stays bearish until a sustained reclaim. |
| Momentum | RSI 49 to 51 | Momentum is neutral, not extreme. AltIndex reported RSI around 50.9 and StockAnalysis around 49.0, so neither overbought nor oversold. |
| Volume | Watch the moving-average reclaim | A move back above $274.88 and then $300 is more useful if it arrives with above-average volume and improving breadth. |
| Volatility | Low beta near 0.42 | MCD tends to move less than the market, but traffic, gas prices, FX, rates, and the August 3 earnings release can still reset the range. |
| Invalidation | Close below $260.96 | A decisive break below the 52-week low would open lower ground, while a reclaim of the 200-day area near $300 would improve the longer setup. |
MCD AI trading strategy
The MCD AI trading strategy below is a framework for research and risk planning, not personal advice. It combines a quality-franchise thesis with moving-average confirmation, traffic data, and valuation discipline.
Watch for MCD to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $274.88 and then build toward the 200-day area near $300 with rising volume before treating the downtrend as repaired.
Define the invalidation level before entry. A close below the 52-week low near $260.96 can be used as a rules-based exit signal.
If MCD pulls back toward the $261 to $263 support zone without a deterioration in comparable sales or franchisee economics, compare the setup against the 2.75% dividend yield and base-case EPS growth.
Avoid assuming every pullback in a famous brand is cheap. A break below the support zone changes the setup from pullback to trend damage.
Track comparable sales across the U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets, consumer value perception, franchisee cash flow, China unit growth, gas price effects on traffic, and the September 2026 investor day under the NEXT plan.
Update scenario ranges after the August 3, 2026 earnings release. MCD can keep growing earnings while the stock reprices if traffic quality or restaurant multiples weaken.
Investment research summary
McDonald's sells convenient, familiar, low-friction meal occasions at global scale. Customers pay for taste, speed, price certainty, habit, locations, drive-thru access, delivery, and brand trust, while the company earns rent and royalties from franchisees.
The moat comes from brand memory, real estate, franchisee capital, supplier scale, advertising reach, restaurant density, and digital loyalty. It is wide, but value perception can weaken if price rises faster than customer income or specialists win on taste and convenience.
The thesis fails if traffic erosion is hidden by pricing, franchisee returns fall, low-income consumers trade down further, labor and food inflation absorb margin, gas prices keep hurting restaurant trips, or investors stop paying a premium multiple.
Kempczinski has emphasized digital, delivery, drive-thru, value, development, and tighter operating focus. The McDonald's NEXT plan adds automation, food and drink quality, social media marketing, and hospitality. The key test is whether it rebuilds traffic without damaging franchisee and company margins.
Quick-service restaurants benefit from convenience, urbanization, delivery, digital ordering, and franchise development, but the U.S. category is mature, high gas prices are weighing on restaurant traffic, and fast-growing specialists are competing for the same customers.
At roughly 22.3x TTM EPS and 7.0x sales, MCD is cheaper than its recent history, and the 2.75% dividend yield adds income. Margin of safety improves if traffic data confirms and the stock reclaims its 50-day moving average.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCD price | $270.64 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis MCD overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $192.29 billion, verified as $270.64 x 710.51 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 710.51 million shares, down 0.66% year over year | StockAnalysis MCD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $27.45 billion, up 6.77% | StockAnalysis MCD financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $8.68 billion net income, EPS of $12.13 | StockAnalysis MCD financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue of $26.885 billion and net income of $8.563 billion | StockAnalysis MCD financials and McDonald's 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $6.517 billion up 9.42%, EPS of $2.78, global comparable sales up 3.8% | McDonald's Q1 2026 results via PYMNTS and CNBC coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 comparable sales by segment | U.S. and International Operated Markets each up 3.9%, International Developmental Licensed Markets up 3.4% | McDonald's Q1 2026 results via PYMNTS coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash and equivalents of $1.17 billion and total debt of $54.90 billion | StockAnalysis MCD statistics and balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow of $7.04 billion, or $9.91 per share | StockAnalysis MCD cash flow data | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $7.44 annual dividend, 2.75% yield, 51 years of growth | StockAnalysis MCD dividend data | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 22.31x TTM EPS, 27.31x TTM P/FCF, 2.75% dividend yield, 7.01x sales | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day SMA $274.88, 200-day SMA $300.50, RSI 49 to 51, support $260.96 to $262.80, resistance $330.47 | StockAnalysis, Barchart, and AltIndex technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12-month target near $323.90, low $250, high $407 | StockAnalysis forecast and S&P Global analyst data | August 2, 2026 |
This MCD AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, assumptions, and technical references as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. The next earnings release on August 3, 2026 can change these estimates.
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