Wingstop Inc. research snapshot
WING AI stock analysis reads Wingstop Inc. as a high-quality, almost fully franchised chicken-wing restaurant chain whose unit growth and digital leadership remain intact, but whose same-store sales have now declined for a second straight year. At the August 3, 2026 research cutoff, the latest verified close was $129.49 on July 31, verified market capitalization was about $3.53 billion against roughly 27.24 million shares outstanding, TTM revenue was about $720.7 million, and TTM GAAP net income was about $116.4 million. On July 29, 2026, Wingstop reported Q2 2026 domestic same-store sales down 7.5%, total revenue up 6.4% to $185.6 million, adjusted EPS up 14.9% to $1.18, and 102 net new openings for 16% unit growth to 3,255 restaurants. The company guided 2026 domestic same-store sales down 4% to 6%. The WING AI stock analysis uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction, and it is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$129.49 (July 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$3.53 billion verified market cap
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
High-quality 98% franchised chicken-wing model with strong unit economics, but a second consecutive year of falling same-store sales, heavy debt, and a stock down about 63% from its 52-week high keep the view cautious
Trend status
In a persistent downtrend, trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July 29 Q2 2026 report that showed domestic same-store sales down 7.5%
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Wingstop operates a highly franchised chicken-wing chain with 3,255 restaurants system-wide as of June 27, 2026, of which about 98% are franchised. The franchise model generates royalty and advertising fee income with low capital intensity, high margins, and strong cash flow conversion. | High |
| Moat | Brand recognition, proprietary flavors, a large digital and loyalty program (Club Wingstop), and franchisee unit economics create a moderate moat. Consumer switching costs are low, but the brand has demonstrated pricing power within the chicken category and franchisees keep adding units. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Michael Skipworth is driving value messaging, flavor innovation, Smart Kitchen technology, and international expansion. Capital allocation includes unit growth investment, a rising dividend, and share buybacks. The key challenge is turning the 2026 same-store sales decline around after a disappointing Q2. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $696.85 million with net income of $174.27 million. TTM revenue reached about $720.7 million while TTM net income was about $116.4 million, down about 32% as Q2 2026 same-store sales fell. Margins remain strong, with a TTM operating margin near 27.9%, but total debt of about $1.27 billion against $127.5 million cash creates leverage risk. | High |
| Valuation | At $129.49, the stock trades at about 30.8x TTM earnings, 4.9x TTM sales, 27.4x price to free cash flow, and roughly 20.5x EV/EBITDA. Forward P/E near 27x to 29x. These multiples are much lower than the mid-2025 peak but still above the typical restaurant average, leaving limited margin of safety unless sales growth returns. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a clear downtrend from the 52-week high near $363.47, trading below the 50-day moving average near $150.62 and far below the 200-day moving average near $205.76. RSI near 38 shows weak momentum but not yet deeply oversold. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated. Same-store sales are negative and guided down 4% to 6% for 2026, chicken wing cost inflation persists, debt of about $1.27 billion exceeds cash of about $127.5 million, short interest is high near 16.9% of shares outstanding, and the stock is down about 63% from its 52-week high. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive financial facts, valuation ratios, technical snapshots, and business model analysis from company filings and market data. Lower confidence for forward returns because same-store sales, wing costs, and the multiple can move the stock sharply in either direction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The business model is excellent and the valuation is far cheaper than its peak, but same-store sales are falling, guidance is negative, and the technical trend is still down. Recovery requires both traffic stabilization and a valuation floor. | Low to medium |
WING AI stock forecast
The WING AI stock forecast is scenario-based because outcomes depend on same-store sales trends, unit growth pace, chicken wing costs, royalty and franchise fee income, debt service, international expansion progress, and the market multiple. Using the $129.49 July 31 close, current EPS of about $4.46 on forward estimates, and financial_rigor.py three-scenario math with growth of 12/8/2 percent and PE multiples of 35/26/20, the mechanical three-year outcomes are about $219 in a bullish case, $146 in a base case, and $95 in a bearish case.
$200 to $240
More likely if domestic same-store sales return to positive growth in the second half of 2026, international unit growth stays at 15% to 16%, wing costs stay manageable, and the market re-rates the stock back toward the mid-30s earnings multiple seen at the start of 2026.
$130 to $160
More likely if same-store sales decline moderates toward the guided 4% to 6% range and then stabilizes, international expansion continues steadily, royalty income grows with unit count, and the stock holds near its current forward PE multiple of about 27x to 29x.
$85 to $105
More likely if same-store sales decline more than guided, chicken wing costs spike and compress franchisee margins, traffic keeps falling, debt service costs rise, or the market compresses the PE multiple toward the low 20s or below.
WING AI technical analysis
WING AI technical analysis starts from the $129.49 July 31 close used for this August 3 static page. The stock is in a well-defined downtrend, trading below its 50-day moving average near $150.62 and far below its 200-day moving average near $205.76. The 14-day RSI near 38 shows weak but not yet deeply oversold momentum. The 52-week range is $116.35 to $363.47, meaning the stock is down about 63% from its high. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $129.49 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff (July 31, 2026 Yahoo Finance close). The stock was near $129.98 in early August 3 trading. |
| Near support | $120 to $125 | Recent July trading lows above the 52-week low. A hold here suggests the selling pressure is easing near term. |
| Key support | $116.35 | The 52-week low. A break below this level would likely accelerate selling and signal a new leg down. |
| Near resistance | $140 to $145 | The July 31 intraday range top near $140 and the recent breakdown zone. A reclaim is the first step toward repairing the trend. |
| Major resistance | $150 to $160 | The 50-day moving average zone near $150.62. A sustained reclaim of this area would be the first meaningful sign of trend improvement. |
| 50-day moving average | About $150.62 | Above current price, confirming the bearish short-term trend. A cross above would be a significant technical improvement. |
| 200-day moving average | About $205.76 | Far above current price, indicating an extended downtrend. Meaningful trend change requires a multi-month recovery toward this level. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 near 38, weak | RSI near 38 shows soft momentum but not yet deeply oversold, leaving room for further downside before a contrarian signal appears. |
| Volume | About 1.22 million average shares | Average volume of roughly 1.22 million shares over 20 days. Volume spiked around the July 29 earnings report, consistent with distribution. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.78 to 1.81 | Beta above the market average means amplified movements around earnings, same-store sales data, and sector sentiment, requiring careful position sizing. |
| Short interest | 4.60 million shares, 16.88% of shares out | Elevated short interest with about 4 days to cover can add to downside pressure but can also fuel sharp rallies if shorts cover. |
| Invalidation | Close below $116.35, or reclaim $140 then $150 | A daily close below $116.35 would confirm a new downtrend leg. A sustained reclaim of $140 and then the 50-day zone near $150 would start repairing the trend. |
WING AI trading strategy
The WING AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines franchise-model fundamental analysis, downtrend-aware technical confirmation, strict position sizing for a high-beta stock, and clear invalidation levels.
With WING below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and guidance negative for 2026, the established trend is down. A trader could study a short setup only on a failed rally into the $140 to $150 resistance zone, or wait for a daily close above the 50-day moving average near $150.62 before treating the trend as turning up.
Do not short into the 52-week low area near $116 without confirmation, and do not treat oversold readings alone as a buy signal in a high-beta name. Define a stop and a maximum position before entry.
If WING stabilizes near the $120 to $125 support zone or holds the $116.35 52-week low without a fundamental thesis break, look for a higher low and a reclaim of $140 before adding. Compare any bounce with the next same-store sales, unit growth, and wing-cost data.
This is a high-risk counter-trend setup in a stock down 63% from its high. Position size should be reduced, and a close below $116.35 should trigger an immediate exit.
Track quarterly earnings (last reported July 29, 2026; confirm the next date on a live calendar), domestic same-store sales, international unit count, average unit volume, commodity cost commentary, debt reduction progress, short interest, and franchisee profitability.
Lower conviction if same-store sales decline more than the guided 4% to 6%, wing costs rise sharply, debt increases, or guidance is cut again. These would make the premium multiple harder to justify.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Wingstop for flavored chicken wings, tenders, and fries through a convenient quick-service format. The company earns royalty, franchise, and advertising fees from about 3,255 franchised locations, generating high-margin, asset-light revenue, with company-owned restaurants a small part of the mix.
Wingstop advantages include brand recognition in the chicken-wing category, proprietary sauce flavors, a growing digital and loyalty program (Club Wingstop) with strong engagement, and franchisee unit economics that attract operators. Switching costs are low for consumers but franchisees have meaningful investment at stake.
The thesis can fail if domestic same-store sales keep falling, chicken wing costs rise persistently and compress franchisee margins, international expansion proves slower or less profitable than expected, debt service costs crowd out investment, or the stock multiple compresses further from already-reduced levels.
President and CEO Michael Skipworth leads value messaging, flavor innovation, Smart Kitchen technology, and international expansion. Capital allocation emphasizes unit growth investment, a rising quarterly dividend, and share buybacks. The July 2026 report and multiple analyst target cuts test management credibility on the same-store sales turnaround.
Quick-service restaurants face a cautious consumer spending environment in 2026, and Wingstop reported domestic same-store sales down 7.5% in Q2. Tailwinds include digital ordering, delivery partnerships, and international chicken demand growth. Headwinds include commodity cost volatility, labor inflation, and intense competition within the chicken category.
A verified $3.53 billion market cap, about 30.8x TTM PE, 4.9x TTM sales, and 20.5x EV/EBITDA all point to a valuation that is far cheaper than the 2025 peak but still not cheap for a business with negative same-store sales. The base case scenario points near $146, while the bearish case points near $95 if the sales decline worsens and the multiple compresses.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $129.49 July 31, 2026 Yahoo Finance close | Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.53 billion verified against 27.24 million shares at $129.49 (0.02% variance) | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 27.24 million diluted shares | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis market cap calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | Approximately $720.7 million TTM revenue and $116.4 million TTM net income | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue and net income | $696.85 million revenue and $174.27 million net income for fiscal year 2025 | StockAnalysis financials (via SEC filings) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Total revenue $185.6M (+6.4%), domestic same-store sales -7.5%, adjusted EPS $1.18 (+14.9%), adjusted EBITDA $66.6M (+12.5%), 102 net new openings, 3,255 restaurants | Wingstop Q2 2026 press release (PR Newswire, July 29, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Domestic same-store sales down 4% to 6%, global unit growth 15% to 16%, interest expense about $43 million | Wingstop Q2 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and enterprise value | Approximately $127.5 million cash, $1.27 billion total debt, $4.67 billion enterprise value | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $128.49 million free cash flow (levered free cash flow about $98.6 million) | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 30.8x trailing PE, 27x to 29x forward PE, 4.9x price/sales, 20.5x EV/EBITDA, 1.02% dividend yield | Yahoo Finance statistics, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA about $150.62, 200-day MA about $205.76, RSI near 38, beta 1.78 to 1.81, 52-week range $116.35 to $363.47 | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.60 million shares short, about 16.88% of shares outstanding, about 4 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 29 analysts, average price target $206.59 (low $143, high $300); recent cuts include Bernstein to $155, BMO to $165, Citi to $208 | StockAnalysis forecast and TheFly analyst notes | August 3, 2026 |
| Global restaurant count | 3,255 restaurants as of June 27, 2026, including 2,728 in the United States and 527 international, operating in 20-plus markets | Wingstop Q2 2026 press release and Wikipedia | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.33 per quarter, $1.32 annualized, 1.02% yield, ex-dividend date August 14, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
This WING AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on publicly available data as of the stated cutoff and can be wrong. Markets, commodity costs, restaurant trends, interest rates, and company results can change quickly. Do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
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