Restaurant Brands International Inc. research snapshot
QSR AI stock analysis currently reads Restaurant Brands International as a large, mostly franchised quick-service restaurant operator with four global brands, recurring royalty and advertising revenue, and a credible growth algorithm. The tradeoff is financial leverage and uneven brand execution: first-quarter 2026 comparable sales rose 3.2%, led by Burger King US and International, while Popeyes comparable sales fell 6.5%. At the July 9, 2026 close of $74.94, QSR trades near 26.4x trailing EPS and 23.0x free cash flow per share, so the QSR AI stock forecast depends on franchisee economics, restaurant openings, Burger King remodel returns, Popeyes traffic, interest expense, and valuation discipline. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$74.94
Market cap
$34.20 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Scaled global franchise operator with improving organic growth, meaningful free cash flow, and elevated leverage
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day reference after a recovery from the spring low
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RBI earns royalties, franchise fees, advertising revenue, supply-chain income, and selected company restaurant income from Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs across roughly 33,000 restaurants. | High |
| Moat | Global brand awareness, franchise systems, restaurant density, advertising scale, digital investment, and supply-chain relationships support the moat, but consumers face low switching costs and franchisees need acceptable unit economics. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Josh Kobza is executing the 2024 to 2028 growth algorithm, including 8% or more organic adjusted operating income growth and a target of 5% or more net restaurant growth toward the end of the period. Capital allocation balances growth spending, dividends, and resumed repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 12.2% to $9.43 billion and free cash flow reached $1.45 billion. In Q1 2026, revenue rose to $2.26 billion, adjusted operating income rose 13.0%, and free cash flow was $169 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $74.94, QSR screens near 26.39x trailing EPS, 22.99x free cash flow per share, 6.95x book value per share, and a 3.47% dividend yield. The valuation assumes reliable execution, not a deep margin-of-safety setup. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close was just below the 50-day moving-average reference near $75.65 and above the 200-day reference near $71.39, leaving the chart constructive but not in a confirmed short-term breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are high net debt, interest costs, franchisee profitability, Popeyes traffic, Burger King remodel return on investment, international FX and geopolitical exposure, commodity and labor pressure, and a lower restaurant valuation multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because RBI releases, SEC filings, and StockAnalysis agree on the main financial base. Forecast confidence is lower because brand demand, rates, and valuation multiples are variable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | QSR has a durable franchise platform, but the investment case needs sustained brand-level execution and deleveraging capacity to offset the premium paid for recurring cash flow. | Medium |
QSR AI stock forecast
The QSR AI stock forecast uses the July 9, 2026 quote reference of $74.94, TTM EPS of $2.84, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $49.70, a base area near $69.60, and a bullish area near $90.70 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$87 to $94
More likely if comparable sales remain above the long-term algorithm, net restaurant growth accelerates, Burger King Royal Reset investments improve franchisee economics, Popeyes recovers, adjusted EPS compounds near 10%, and investors pay about 24x earnings.
$66 to $73
More likely if RBI delivers modest comparable sales growth, International stays healthy, net leverage remains near the reported 4.2x adjusted EBITDA level, EPS compounds near 7%, and the market values QSR around 20x earnings.
$47 to $53
More likely if franchisee economics weaken, Popeyes traffic stays negative, Burger King investment returns disappoint, rates or FX pressure cash flow, EPS compounds near 3%, or the multiple contracts toward 16x earnings.
QSR AI technical analysis
QSR AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive at the July 10, 2026 cutoff. The July 9 close of $74.94 was below the July 2 GuruFocus 50-day SMA reference of $75.65 but above Barchart's 200-day reference near $71.39. These third-party levels are time-sensitive and should be refreshed before trading decisions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.94 | July 9, 2026 closing quote from StockAnalysis, used as the research price reference. |
| Immediate support | $73 to $74 | Recent trading area below the quote reference. Holding it would preserve the short-term recovery structure. |
| Major support | $71 to $72 | Area around the 200-day moving-average reference. A sustained break would weaken the constructive trend view. |
| Near resistance | $75.65 to $76 | The July 2 50-day SMA reference and nearby round-number area. Reclaiming it on stronger volume would improve momentum. |
| Higher resistance | $81 to $82 | Area near the reported 52-week high of $81.96. It marks a larger upside confirmation zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $75.65, 200-day about $71.39 | GuruFocus and Barchart references use different update times. The stock was between them at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | Neutral | Price is near the 50-day reference rather than extended above it. A breakout needs confirmation rather than anticipation. |
| Volume | 2.79 million shares on July 9 | StockAnalysis reported this session volume. Watch for expanding volume if price clears the 50-day average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.53 | The reported beta is below market sensitivity, but earnings, rates, FX, and restaurant data can create stock-specific moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $71 | A durable loss of the 200-day support area would weaken the recovery framework and require a fresh fundamental review. |
QSR AI trading strategy
The QSR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines comparable sales, restaurant openings, franchisee health, net leverage, free cash flow, interest expense, and the stated technical invalidation level.
Look for QSR to hold the $73 to $74 area and reclaim $75.65 to $76 with improving volume. Pair that chart signal with positive comparable sales, International growth, and evidence that Burger King investment is improving franchisee economics.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day average or a sustained close below $71 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it follows weak brand-level demand or higher leverage commentary.
If QSR revisits the $71 to $72 support area, compare the lower price with updated EPS, free cash flow yield, debt, interest expense, system-wide sales, and peer restaurant multiples before assuming value.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if franchisee economics deteriorate, Popeyes traffic stays weak, or the company reduces its long-term growth or capital-return expectations.
Track comparable sales and net restaurant growth by brand, Burger King Royal Reset spending and returns, Popeyes traffic, Tim Hortons and International momentum, adjusted operating income, free cash flow, net leverage, interest expense, dividends, and repurchases.
Position sizing should reflect QSR's high debt load. Net debt was $12.63 billion at March 31, 2026, so a consumer slowdown or a sustained rate shock can have an outsized equity impact.
Investment research summary
Customers pay the four restaurant brands for familiar, convenient quick-service food. Franchisees fund most restaurant operations, while RBI collects royalties, fees, advertising contributions, supply-chain income, and selected company-store income.
The moat comes from global brand recognition, restaurant density, franchising know-how, advertising scale, digital platforms, supply-chain relationships, and local franchisee networks. It must be renewed through value, service, and attractive unit economics because customers can switch easily.
The thesis fails if remodel spending does not lift Burger King unit economics, Popeyes demand stays weak, franchisees defer investment, commodity or labor costs rise, interest expense absorbs cash flow, international growth reverses, or the market stops paying a premium for leveraged franchise cash flow.
Josh Kobza and the management team are measured against brand-level execution, capital discipline, the 2024 to 2028 growth algorithm, franchisee returns, and whether shareholder distributions leave enough capacity to support the balance sheet and growth investment.
Quick-service restaurants benefit from convenience, drive-thru, digital ordering, delivery, and global development. The industry remains competitive and value-sensitive, so the long-term opportunity depends on franchisee economics and local relevance rather than a guaranteed category tailwind.
The current price reflects confidence in recurring franchise cash flow and improved growth. The three-scenario model shows meaningful upside if earnings compound at a double-digit rate, but downside if growth slows or the market applies a lower multiple to a leveraged consumer franchise platform.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QSR quote reference | $74.94 at the July 9, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market data | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $34.20 billion calculated from $74.94 x 456.34 million shares, compared with $34.20 billion reported by StockAnalysis, 0.01% variance | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and common earnings | Revenue $9.434 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders $776 million, both cross-validated with StockAnalysis | RBI full-year 2025 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.449 billion, up from $1.302 billion in FY2024 | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Revenue $2.264 billion, comparable sales 3.2%, adjusted operating income $610 million, adjusted EBITDA $706 million, and adjusted diluted EPS $0.86 | RBI Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 brand demand | Burger King US comparable sales 5.8%, International comparable sales 5.7%, Popeyes comparable sales negative 6.5%, and 32,985 system restaurants | RBI Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net leverage | Cash $1.012 billion, total debt $13.640 billion excluding certain lease presentation, net debt $12.628 billion, and net leverage 4.2x adjusted EBITDA at March 31, 2026 | RBI Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical references | TTM EPS $2.84, TTM free cash flow per share $3.26, beta 0.53, 52-week range $61.33 to $81.96, and July 9 volume 2.79 million shares | StockAnalysis market data | July 10, 2026 |
This QSR research page is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Review current filings, quotes, and your own objectives, risk tolerance, and professional advice before making an investment decision.
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