Restaurant Brands International Inc. research snapshot
QSR AI stock analysis currently reads Restaurant Brands International as a large, mostly franchised quick-service restaurant operator with four global brands, recurring royalty and advertising revenue, and a growth algorithm that delivered a strong start to 2026. First-quarter comparable sales rose 3.2%, led by Burger King US and International, while Popeyes comparable sales fell 6.5%. At the July 31, 2026 close of $74.02, QSR trades near 26x trailing GAAP EPS, about 18x forward adjusted EPS, and 22.7x trailing free cash flow per share, so the QSR AI stock forecast depends on franchisee economics, restaurant openings, Burger King remodel returns, Popeyes traffic, interest expense, and valuation discipline. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$74.02
Market cap
$33.78 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Scaled global franchise operator with improving organic growth, strong first-quarter momentum, and elevated but improving leverage
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, trading just above the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day reference after holding the recovery range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RBI earns royalties, franchise fees, advertising revenue, supply-chain income, and selected company restaurant income from Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs across roughly 33,000 restaurants. | High |
| Moat | Global brand awareness, franchise systems, restaurant density, advertising scale, digital investment, and supply-chain relationships support the moat, but consumers face low switching costs and franchisees need acceptable unit economics. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Josh Kobza is executing the 2024 to 2028 growth algorithm, including 3% or more comparable sales, 8% or more organic adjusted operating income growth, and 5% or more net restaurant growth toward the end of the period. Capital allocation balances growth spending, dividends, and resumed repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 12.2% to $9.43 billion. In Q1 2026, revenue rose to $2.26 billion, adjusted operating income rose 13.0%, adjusted diluted EPS rose 14.6% to $0.86, and free cash flow reached $169 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $74.02, QSR screens near 26.06x trailing GAAP EPS, 22.71x trailing free cash flow per share, 6.87x book value per share, and a 3.51% dividend yield. Forward adjusted PE is about 18x on the 2026 analyst consensus. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $74.02 was just above the 50-day moving-average reference near $73.96 and above the 200-day reference near $72.21, leaving the chart constructive but not extended. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are high net debt, interest costs, franchisee profitability, Popeyes traffic, Burger King remodel return on investment, international FX and geopolitical exposure, commodity and labor pressure, and a lower restaurant valuation multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because RBI releases, SEC filings, and StockAnalysis agree on the main financial base. Forecast confidence is lower because brand demand, rates, and valuation multiples are variable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | QSR has a durable franchise platform and a credible growth plan, but the investment case needs sustained brand-level execution and deleveraging capacity to offset the premium paid for recurring cash flow. | Medium |
QSR AI stock forecast
The QSR AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 quote reference of $74.02 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $4.05 as a forward base, with a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $62, a base area near $87, and a bullish area near $105 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$100 to $110
More likely if comparable sales remain above the long-term algorithm, net restaurant growth accelerates, Burger King Royal Reset investments improve franchisee economics, Popeyes recovers, adjusted EPS compounds near 11%, and investors pay about 19x earnings.
$82 to $92
More likely if RBI delivers low-single-digit comparable sales growth, International stays healthy, net leverage remains near the reported 4.2x adjusted EBITDA level, adjusted EPS compounds near 8%, and the market values QSR around 17x forward earnings.
$58 to $66
More likely if franchisee economics weaken, Popeyes traffic stays negative, Burger King investment returns disappoint, rates or FX pressure cash flow, adjusted EPS compounds near 3%, or the multiple contracts toward 14x earnings.
QSR AI technical analysis
QSR AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close of $74.02 was just above StockAnalysis's 50-day moving-average reference of $73.96 and above the 200-day reference near $72.21, with an RSI near 49. These levels are time-sensitive and should be refreshed before trading decisions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.02 | July 31, 2026 closing quote from StockAnalysis, used as the research price reference. |
| Immediate support | $72.21 to $73 | Area around the 200-day moving-average reference. Holding it would preserve the short-term recovery structure. |
| Major support | $71 to $72 | Trading area below the 200-day reference. A sustained break would weaken the constructive trend view. |
| Near resistance | $75 to $76 | Round-number area above the 50-day reference. Reclaiming it on stronger volume would improve momentum. |
| Higher resistance | $81.96 | The reported 52-week high. It marks a larger upside confirmation zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $73.96, 200-day about $72.21 | StockAnalysis references updated August 2, 2026. The stock closed just above both references. |
| Momentum | Neutral | RSI near 49 and price sitting at the 50-day reference. A breakout needs confirmation rather than anticipation. |
| Volume | About 2.39 million shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis reported the 20-day average volume. Watch for expanding volume if price clears the $75 to $76 zone. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.53 | The reported beta is below market sensitivity, but earnings, rates, FX, and restaurant data can create stock-specific moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $71 | A durable loss of the 200-day support area would weaken the recovery framework and require a fresh fundamental review. |
QSR AI trading strategy
The QSR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines comparable sales, restaurant openings, franchisee health, net leverage, free cash flow, interest expense, and the stated technical invalidation level.
Look for QSR to hold the $72.21 to $73 area and reclaim $75 to $76 with improving volume. Pair that chart signal with positive comparable sales, International growth, and evidence that Burger King investment is improving franchisee economics.
A failed reclaim of the $75 to $76 zone or a sustained close below $71 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it follows weak brand-level demand or higher leverage commentary.
If QSR revisits the $71 to $72 support area, compare the lower price with updated EPS, free cash flow yield, debt, interest expense, system-wide sales, and peer restaurant multiples before assuming value.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if franchisee economics deteriorate, Popeyes traffic stays weak, or the company reduces its long-term growth or capital-return expectations.
Track comparable sales and net restaurant growth by brand, Burger King Royal Reset spending and returns, Popeyes traffic, Tim Hortons and International momentum, adjusted operating income, free cash flow, net leverage, interest expense, dividends, and repurchases.
Position sizing should reflect QSR's high debt load. Net debt was $12.63 billion at March 31, 2026, so a consumer slowdown or a sustained rate shock can have an outsized equity impact.
Investment research summary
Customers pay the four restaurant brands for familiar, convenient quick-service food. Franchisees fund most restaurant operations, while RBI collects royalties, fees, advertising contributions, supply-chain income, and selected company-store income.
The moat comes from global brand recognition, restaurant density, franchising know-how, advertising scale, digital platforms, supply-chain relationships, and local franchisee networks. It must be renewed through value, service, and attractive unit economics because customers can switch easily.
The thesis fails if remodel spending does not lift Burger King unit economics, Popeyes demand stays weak, franchisees defer investment, commodity or labor costs rise, interest expense absorbs cash flow, international growth reverses, or the market stops paying a premium for leveraged franchise cash flow.
Josh Kobza and the management team are measured against brand-level execution, capital discipline, the 2024 to 2028 growth algorithm, franchisee returns, and whether shareholder distributions leave enough capacity to support the balance sheet and growth investment.
Quick-service restaurants benefit from convenience, drive-thru, digital ordering, delivery, and global development. The industry remains competitive and value-sensitive, so the long-term opportunity depends on franchisee economics and local relevance rather than a guaranteed category tailwind.
The current price reflects confidence in recurring franchise cash flow and improved growth. The three-scenario model shows meaningful upside if adjusted earnings compound near a double-digit rate, but downside if growth slows or the market applies a lower multiple to a leveraged consumer franchise platform.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QSR quote reference | $74.02 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $33.78 billion calculated from $74.02 x 456.34 million shares, compared with $33.78 billion reported by StockAnalysis, 0.01% variance | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and common earnings | Revenue $9.434 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders $776 million, both cross-validated with StockAnalysis | RBI full-year 2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.449 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, per the RBI reconciliation | RBI Q1 2026 results release, non-GAAP reconciliation | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Revenue $2.264 billion, comparable sales 3.2%, adjusted operating income $610 million, adjusted EBITDA $706 million, and adjusted diluted EPS $0.86 | RBI Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 brand demand | Burger King US comparable sales 5.8%, International comparable sales 5.7%, Popeyes comparable sales negative 6.5%, Tim Hortons comparable sales 1.6%, and 32,985 system restaurants | RBI Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net leverage | Cash $1.012 billion, total debt $13.640 billion excluding certain lease presentation, net debt $12.628 billion, and net leverage 4.2x adjusted EBITDA at March 31, 2026 | RBI Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical references | TTM EPS $2.84, TTM free cash flow per share $3.26, beta 0.53, 52-week range $61.33 to $81.96, 50-day moving average $73.96, 200-day moving average $72.21, and RSI near 49 | StockAnalysis market data and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This QSR research page is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Review current filings, quotes, and your own objectives, risk tolerance, and professional advice before making an investment decision.
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