Texas Instruments Incorporated research snapshot
TXN AI stock analysis currently reads Texas Instruments as a high-quality analog and embedded processing semiconductor company with durable manufacturing scale, broad catalog reach, and improving industrial, automotive, and data center demand. Q2 2026 results reported on July 22 beat expectations, with revenue up 23% year over year to $5.5 billion and gross margin at 61%. The page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction. At the July 31, 2026 price snapshot, TXN closed at $275.74, market capitalization was about $251.8 billion using about 913 million shares, and the stock still traded about 17% below its June high because investors judged the strong results as already priced in. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$275.74
Market cap
About $251.8 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Strong analog franchise with recovering earnings, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact with a sharp short-term pullback from the June high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TXN sells analog and embedded processing chips used to sense, convert, manage power, and process signals across industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications, enterprise, and data center systems. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from 300mm manufacturing scale, a very broad catalog, long product lives, customer qualification costs, embedded design wins, software reuse, and capacity that is ready while peers quote long lead times. | High |
| Management | Management delivered a beat-and-raise, keeps returning all free cash flow to owners, and is executing pricing increases, but the August 2026 CFO transition and the Silicon Labs close in the first half of 2027 add execution and regulatory risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 23% year over year to $5.5 billion with 61% gross margin, Q3 guidance points to $5.65 to $6.15 billion revenue, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow improved to $6.5 billion including CHIPS Act incentives. | High |
| Valuation | At $275.74, the local valuation check produced 41.97x TTM EPS and about 38.7x trailing free cash flow per share, so the margin of safety depends on earnings and cash flow catching up. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TXN is still about 80% above its 52-week low but about 17% below its $334.03 high, and it trades below its 20-day and 50-day averages after the July pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the stock fell after a strong quarter on valuation, analog demand can reverse, free cash flow includes CHIPS Act benefits, debt is meaningful, and the Silicon Labs integration is pending. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, price, share count, revenue, margin, cash flow, and valuation math. Lower for forward returns because the cycle, pricing, and investor multiple can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TXN is a strong franchise with improving momentum, but the current price requires continued demand growth, pricing realization, and better free cash flow conversion. | Medium |
TXN AI stock forecast
The TXN AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $275.74 cutoff price. The bullish case requires data center, industrial, and automotive growth to persist with pricing and free cash flow improving; the base case assumes a good business at a more normal premium near the analyst consensus; the bearish case assumes the analog cycle and valuation compression arrive together.
$340 to $410
More likely if Q3 2026 revenue lands near the upper end of the $5.65 to $6.15 billion outlook, data center and industrial growth stays strong, pricing increases flow through, free cash flow keeps rising, and price reclaims the $285 to $296 zone and then the $334.03 high. High-end analyst targets cluster near $380 to $405.
$285 to $335
More likely if TXN executes well and growth normalizes while investors value the recovery near the consensus target of about $324. A three-scenario model using 10% EPS growth and a 30x terminal P/E produced about $262 after three years, so patience matters.
$230 to $285
More likely if order growth fades in the second half, analog demand turns, pricing does not stick, CHIPS Act benefits normalize, and the stock breaks below the $268.76 support. The lowest published targets sit near $255 to $290.
TXN AI technical analysis
TXN AI technical analysis starts from the $275.74 July 31, 2026 close used for the July 2026 cutoff. Public quote sources placed the 52-week range near $152.73 to $334.03. The stock fell more than 5% the session after a strong Q2 report because expectations were elevated, and it continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day averages. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and momentum should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $275.74 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis listed this as the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $268.76 to $273.59 | Uses the July 29 low and the July 31 low. A break below this zone would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $285 to $296 | Uses the July 23 high and the earnings-day range. A reclaim of this zone would shift momentum back positive. |
| 52-week range | $152.73 to $334.03 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance showed this range around the cutoff. |
| Moving averages | Below both 20-day and 50-day | Approximate 20-day ($291) and 50-day ($298) averages computed from the daily close series at the cutoff; confirm in a live chart before acting. |
| Momentum | Long-term positive, short-term negative | The stock is about 17% below its high and below both short averages, while still about 80% above the 52-week low. |
| Volume | About 8.8 million shares on July 31 | Near the recent average; the June 26 selloff printed 29.8 million, about 3.7 times normal. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Daily swings of several percent in June, a wide 52-week range, and beta near 1.33 make position sizing more important than headline direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $268.76 | A decisive close below the July 29 low would invalidate the near-term support thesis and require a fresh review. |
TXN AI trading strategy
The TXN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings.
Wait for TXN to hold the $268.76 to $273.59 support zone, then look for a reclaim of the $285 to $296 zone and a later test of the $334.03 high with volume confirmation.
A close below $268.76, a soft Q3 report, or a failed breakout after earnings should invalidate the setup.
If TXN pulls back without a business thesis break, compare the decline with industrial orders, automotive demand, data center growth, pricing realization, gross margin, and free cash flow excluding CHIPS Act incentives.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of valuation and debt risk.
Track Q3 2026 revenue and EPS, Analog and Embedded revenue, gross margin, pricing discussions, capital expenditures, debt, inventory days, Silicon Labs close timing, and the CFO transition.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by data center headlines without matching revenue, margin, or free cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
TXN helps electronics customers turn real-world signals into useful digital and power-management functions. Customers pay for reliability, availability, design support, and qualified parts that can stay in products for years.
TXN benefits from manufacturing control, 300mm cost advantages, broad product breadth, long-life analog parts, software reuse in embedded products, customer qualification costs, and ready capacity when peers face long lead times.
The thesis can fail if investors pay a rich multiple for a cyclical upswing, data center and industrial growth slows, pricing does not stick, CHIPS Act incentives mask weaker underlying free cash flow, or Silicon Labs integration and debt distract management.
Management emphasizes long-term free cash flow per share, disciplined capital allocation, dividends, and repurchases. The next tests are the CFO transition in August 2026, the Silicon Labs close, and balancing owner returns with debt and fab investment.
TXN is exposed to electrification, AI data center power where 800V architectures add conversion stages, industrial automation, vehicle electronics, and embedded intelligence. These are attractive long-term trends, but analog cycles still matter.
The current price embeds a high expectation for earnings and free cash flow growth after a beat-and-raise. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound while the P/E falls only modestly, or if the stock resets toward a lower valuation band.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXN price | $275.74 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quotes | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $251.8 billion, verified as $275.74 times 913 million shares | StockAnalysis quote and financial_rigor.py check | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 913 million shares | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net income | $5.5 billion revenue and $2.0 billion net income ($2.14 per share) | TI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 gross margin | 61%, up 340 basis points sequentially | TI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 22, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue of $5.65 to $6.15 billion and EPS of $2.23 to $2.57 | TI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 22, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $6.5 billion including $1.6 billion of CHIPS Act incentives | TI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 22, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $7.0 billion cash and short-term investments and $14.0 billion total debt at June 30, 2026 | TI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 22, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue | $17.68 billion, cross-validated with Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | TI 2025 annual report via StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $19.45 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, up 16.7%; Macrotrends showed $18.44 billion for the twelve months ended March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment mix | Analog revenue was about $15.63 billion TTM and Embedded Processing about $2.88 billion TTM | StockAnalysis (Fiscal.ai) | July 24, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $152.73 to $334.03 around the July 2026 cutoff | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quotes | August 2, 2026 |
This TXN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Texas Instruments stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the cutoff date and can be wrong.
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