Texas Instruments Incorporated research snapshot
TXN AI stock analysis currently reads Texas Instruments as a high-quality analog and embedded processing semiconductor company with durable manufacturing scale, broad catalog reach, and improving industrial and data center demand. The page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, TXN last closed at $293.30 on July 7, market capitalization was about $266.9 billion using 910 million shares, and the main debate was whether the 2026 free cash flow recovery can justify a premium multiple after a strong stock move. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$293.30
Market cap
About $266.9 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality analog and embedded semiconductor franchise, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Long-term uptrend with a sharp short-term pullback from the June high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TXN sells analog and embedded processing chips used to sense, convert, manage power, and process signals across industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications, enterprise, and data center systems. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from 300mm manufacturing scale, more than 80,000 products, long product lives, broad customer reach, embedded design wins, and software reuse around microcontrollers and processors. | High |
| Management | Management is explicit about maximizing long-term free cash flow per share, returning cash to owners, and investing through cycles, while the Silicon Labs acquisition adds execution and regulatory risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 13% to $17.68 billion, Q1 2026 revenue rose 19% year over year to $4.83 billion, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow improved to $4.35 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $293.30, the local valuation check produced 50.14x TTM EPS and 61.36x free cash flow per share, so the margin of safety depends on earnings and cash flow catching up. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TXN remained well above its 52-week low but closed 12.19% below its $334.03 52-week high, with relative strength recently weakening after a fast advance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because analog demand can reverse, capital spending can pressure free cash flow, debt is meaningful, and the stock is sensitive to multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, price, share count, and valuation math. Lower for forward returns because the analog cycle, data center mix, and investor multiple can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TXN is a strong franchise, but the current price requires continued demand recovery and better free cash flow conversion. | Medium |
TXN AI stock forecast
The TXN AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $293.30 cutoff price. The bullish case requires sustained industrial, automotive, and data center growth plus free cash flow recovery; the base case assumes a good business at a lower premium; the bearish case assumes cyclicality and valuation compression arrive together.
$330 to $400
More likely if Q2 2026 revenue lands near or above the $5.00 billion to $5.40 billion outlook, free cash flow keeps improving as capital expenditures moderate, data center growth proves durable, and price reclaims the $303 to $334 resistance zone with healthy volume.
$260 to $310
More likely if TXN executes well but investors value the recovery at a more normal premium. The corrected financial_rigor.py base scenario using 10% EPS growth and a 36x terminal P/E produced about $280.30 after three years.
$155 to $240
More likely if industrial orders fade, automotive demand weakens, data center revenue disappoints, capital spending or debt concerns persist, and the stock loses the $285 to $293 support area after the cutoff.
TXN AI technical analysis
TXN AI technical analysis starts from the $293.30 July 7, 2026 close used for the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Public quote sources placed the 52-week range near $152.73 to $334.03, and Barchart described the technical opinion as 64% Buy with short-term weakness. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and momentum should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $293.30 | Texas Instruments investor relations listed this as the adjusted July 7, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $285.39 to $293.30 | Uses the July 7 intraday low and closing price. A break below this zone would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $303.50 to $334.03 | Uses the July 6 close and MarketWatch 52-week high. A reclaim of this zone would support a renewed uptrend case. |
| 52-week range | $152.73 to $334.03 | MarketWatch and Yahoo quote snapshots showed this range around the cutoff. |
| Moving averages | Needs live confirmation | The stock had pulled back from a recent high, so traders should confirm the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages in a live chart before acting. |
| Momentum | Long-term positive, short-term weak | Barchart described long-term indicators as supportive but noted short-term weakness and relative strength below 50%. |
| Volume | 8.3 million shares on July 7 | TI investor relations reported 8,286,062 shares on July 7, below the MarketWatch cited 50-day average near 9.5 million. |
| Volatility | Medium-high monitoring priority | The wide 52-week range, premium valuation, and fast June reversal make position sizing more important than headline direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $285.39 | A decisive close below the July 7 low would invalidate the near-term support thesis and require a fresh review. |
TXN AI trading strategy
The TXN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings.
Wait for TXN to hold the $285.39 to $293.30 support zone, then look for a reclaim of $303.50 and a later test of the $334.03 high with volume confirmation.
A close below $285.39, weak Q2 guidance follow-through, or a failed breakout after earnings should invalidate the setup.
If TXN pulls back without a business thesis break, compare the decline with industrial orders, automotive demand, data center growth, gross margin, free cash flow, and capital spending progress.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of valuation and debt risk.
Track Analog revenue, Embedded Processing revenue, Q2 2026 revenue guidance, free cash flow, capital expenditures, cash plus short-term investments, debt, dividend coverage, and Silicon Labs acquisition milestones.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by data center headlines without matching revenue, margin, or free cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
TXN helps electronics customers turn real-world signals into useful digital and power-management functions. Customers pay for reliability, availability, design support, and qualified parts that can stay in products for years.
TXN benefits from manufacturing control, 300mm cost advantages, broad product breadth, long-life analog parts, software reuse in embedded products, and customer qualification costs that make replacement inconvenient.
The thesis can fail if investors overpay for a cyclical rebound, data center enthusiasm fades, industrial and automotive customers cut orders, capital intensity stays high, or acquisition integration distracts management.
Management emphasizes long-term free cash flow per share, disciplined capital allocation, dividends, and repurchases. The next test is balancing owner returns with debt, fabs, inventory, and the pending Silicon Labs transaction.
TXN is exposed to electrification, automation, industrial control, vehicle electronics, embedded intelligence, and data center power demand. These are attractive long-term trends, but analog cycles still matter.
The current price embeds a high expectation for EPS and free cash flow recovery. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound while the P/E falls only modestly, or if the stock resets toward a lower valuation band.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXN price | $293.30 close on July 7, 2026 | Texas Instruments investor relations quote lookup | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $266.9 billion, verified as $293.30 times 910 million shares | MarketWatch quote snapshot and financial_rigor.py check | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 910 million shares from Q1 2026 balance sheet treasury-share math | TI Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $4.83 billion revenue and $1.55 billion net income | TI Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue | $17.68 billion, cross-validated with Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | TI 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income | $5.00 billion GAAP net income | TI 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $5.10 billion at March 31, 2026 | TI Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Debt | $14.05 billion total debt at March 31, 2026 | TI Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $4.35 billion for the trailing twelve months ended Q1 2026 | TI Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Segment mix | Analog revenue was $14.01 billion in 2025, and Embedded Processing was about 15% of 2025 revenue | TI 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $152.73 to $334.03 around the July 2026 cutoff | MarketWatch quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
This TXN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Texas Instruments stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the cutoff date and can be wrong.
