Qualcomm Incorporated research snapshot
QCOM AI stock analysis currently reads Qualcomm Incorporated as a high-quality semiconductor and licensing business whose core cash flow still comes from Snapdragon platforms, modems, RF front-end chips, and wireless patent licensing, while the growth debate has moved toward automotive, IoT, edge AI, PCs, and data center CPUs. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, QCOM closed at $182.97, market capitalization was $192.85 billion, and the main question was whether diversification can offset handset concentration and customer insourcing risk. This page uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$182.97 close on July 7, 2026
Market cap
$192.85 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality wireless IP and edge AI franchise with handset-cycle and diversification risk
Trend status
Long trend above the 200-day average, short-term momentum below the 20-day and 50-day averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Qualcomm sells advanced mobile, automotive, IoT, PC, RF, connectivity, and edge AI chip platforms, while QTL licenses a deep wireless patent portfolio. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from standards-essential patents, modem and RF engineering depth, Snapdragon ecosystem scale, long customer qualification cycles, and automotive design-win stickiness. | High |
| Management | Cristiano Amon has pushed Qualcomm beyond smartphones into automotive, PCs, industrial edge AI, and data center CPUs. Capital allocation has included large buybacks and a new $20 billion authorization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 14% to $44.284 billion, while FY2025 net income fell to $5.541 billion because tax expense was unusually high. TTM net income through March 2026 recovered to $9.923 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $182.97, financial_rigor.py calculated 20.00x TTM EPS, 7.10x book value, 15.43x free cash flow per share, and a 1.95% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock was above its 200-day average near $168.57 but below the 20-day and 50-day averages, so the long trend was intact while short-term momentum needed repair. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because handset demand, customer concentration, Apple modem insourcing, China exposure, licensing disputes, memory shortages, and data center execution can move the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, segment facts, share-count math, and source-backed technical snapshots. Lower for future data center adoption and terminal multiple assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Qualcomm is a durable franchise, but the current case needs handset stabilization plus visible non-handset growth to justify a higher multiple. | Medium |
QCOM AI stock forecast
The QCOM AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $182.97 July 7, 2026 close. The bullish case requires handset stabilization, automotive and IoT growth, stronger evidence around data center CPUs, and a reclaim of overhead moving averages. The base case assumes solid cash generation with moderate growth. The bearish case assumes handset weakness, customer insourcing, licensing pressure, or failed diversification.
$240 to $309
More likely if Q3 FY2026 results show a handset rebound, automotive and IoT continue growing, Investor Day data center targets gain customer evidence, and QCOM reclaims the $201 to $204 moving-average resistance area. The financial_rigor.py bull scenario using 12% EPS growth and a 24x terminal P/E produced about $308.50 after three years.
$170 to $207
More likely if Qualcomm keeps producing strong free cash flow but investors value the company near a normal semiconductor multiple while they wait for non-handset proof. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using 6% EPS growth and a 19x terminal P/E produced about $207.10 after three years.
$109 to $150
More likely if Android handset demand weakens, Apple and other large customers insource more silicon, licensing disputes return, China risk rises, data center products miss milestones, or QCOM breaks below the 200-day moving average on heavy volume.
QCOM AI technical analysis
QCOM AI technical analysis starts from the $182.97 July 7, 2026 close used for the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average at $204.47, the 200-day moving average at $168.57, RSI at 42.07, and 20-day average volume of 22.2 million shares. Barchart showed a similar 200-day average near $168.57 and short-term weakness below the 20-day and 50-day averages. Because this static page does not fetch live chart data, all levels should be rechecked in a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $182.97 | Closing quote from StockAnalysis on July 7, 2026, used for this July 8, 2026 page cutoff. |
| Near support | $182 to $183 | The current price and Investing.com Fibonacci pivot near $182.36 form the first planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Long-trend support | $168 to $169 | StockAnalysis, Barchart, and Intellectia all placed the 200-day average near $168.57, making it the key long-trend reference. |
| Deeper support | $150 to $155 | A deeper risk-control band below the 200-day average. A move there would require a fresh review of handset demand, China exposure, and data center execution. |
| Near resistance | $189 to $201 | The 10-day and 20-day moving averages from Intellectia and Barchart sit in this zone and need to be reclaimed for better short-term momentum. |
| Major resistance | $204 to $205, then $259.92 | StockAnalysis and Barchart show the 50-day average near $204.47. MarketWatch reported the 52-week high at $259.92 on May 29, 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | $204.47 | Price was below this moving average at the cutoff, which supports a cautious short-term technical read. |
| 200-day moving average | $168.57 | Price remained above this long-term average, so the longer recovery trend had not broken at the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 42.07 to 47.77 | StockAnalysis showed RSI at 42.07 and Investing.com showed 14-day RSI at 47.769, a neutral to soft momentum reading. |
| Volume | 22.2 million 20-day average | StockAnalysis listed 20-day average volume of 22,231,308 shares; volume confirmation matters if price challenges resistance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $168 | A decisive close below the 200-day area would weaken the technical setup and should trigger a full thesis review. |
QCOM AI trading strategy
The QCOM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with position sizing, current filings, live chart checks, earnings dates, and predefined invalidation levels.
Wait for QCOM to hold above the 200-day area near $168.57 and reclaim the $201 to $204 resistance zone with semiconductor breadth, earnings quality, and volume confirmation.
Invalidate the setup if price closes below the 200-day average or if Q3 FY2026 commentary shows weaker handset, China, automotive, or IoT demand than expected.
If QCOM pulls toward $168 to $183 without a filing-level thesis break, compare the selloff with Android handset inventory, Apple exposure, licensing revenue, automotive design wins, IoT revenue, and data center milestones.
Do not average down without a maximum loss, review date, and clear evidence that free cash flow and licensing economics remain intact.
Track QCT handsets, automotive, IoT, QTL licensing revenue, customer concentration, China revenue exposure, share repurchases, dividend coverage, Dragonfly CPU milestones, and Meta or other hyperscaler adoption.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by AI data center headlines without matching customer, revenue, margin, and cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Qualcomm for high-performance, low-power computing and connectivity platforms that make phones, vehicles, PCs, edge devices, and connected products communicate and process AI workloads efficiently.
The moat is strongest in wireless patents, modem and RF systems, Snapdragon developer and OEM familiarity, scale in premium Android, long automotive qualification cycles, and licensing relationships tied to cellular standards.
The thesis can fail if Apple or Android OEMs replace more Qualcomm silicon, handset units stay weak, China restrictions rise, licensing terms reset lower, data center products arrive late, or investors overpay for an unproven AI expansion.
Cristiano Amon has led a clear diversification push since becoming CEO in 2021. The next test is whether management can turn automotive, IoT, PC, physical AI, and data center ambitions into repeatable revenue without diluting the core handset and licensing engine.
Qualcomm sits inside long-running trends: on-device AI, connected vehicles, ADAS, industrial edge devices, 5G Advanced, Wi-Fi, AI PCs, and lower-power inference. These trends are attractive, but competition is intense.
At $182.97, valuation looked reasonable versus cash flow but not deeply distressed. Margin of safety improves if non-handset revenue growth becomes visible while the stock holds long-term support, or if price falls without a matching business deterioration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM price | $182.97 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $192.85 billion; financial_rigor.py verified $182.97 x 1.054 billion shares with 0.00% variance | StockAnalysis market cap and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.05 billion current shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $44.284 billion; SEC 10-K and StockAnalysis matched in cross-validation | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $5.541 billion; SEC 10-K and StockAnalysis matched in cross-validation | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $44.487 billion revenue and $9.923 billion net income | StockAnalysis financials through March 29, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $10.155 billion at fiscal 2025 year-end; $9.799 billion TTM balance sheet snapshot through March 2026 | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Total debt | $15.270 billion TTM balance sheet snapshot | StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | QCT $38.367 billion and QTL $5.582 billion | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K segment information | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 headline results | $10.6 billion revenue, GAAP EPS $6.88, non-GAAP EPS $2.65 | Qualcomm Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 20.00x TTM EPS, 15.43x FCF per share, 1.95% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $204.47, 200-day average $168.57, RSI 42.07, 20-day average volume 22.2 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Data center and Meta roadmap | Meta multi-generation CPU roadmap announced June 24, 2026; first Qualcomm Dragonfly C1000 CPU production expected in second half of 2028 | Qualcomm press release | July 8, 2026 |
This QCOM AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, liquidity, taxes, and personal risk constraints before making financial decisions.
