Qualcomm Incorporated research snapshot
QCOM AI stock analysis currently reads Qualcomm Incorporated as a high-quality semiconductor and licensing business whose core cash flow still comes from Snapdragon platforms, modems, RF front-end chips, and wireless patent licensing, while the near-term debate has shifted to memory cost inflation, supply chain shortages, and a faster step-down in Apple revenue. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, QCOM closed at $147.61 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was $157.66 billion, and Q3 fiscal 2026 results reported on July 29 showed revenue at the high end of guidance but gross margin pressure and a below-consensus profit outlook. Non-handset revenue including automotive and IoT grew 28% year over year, yet the stock broke below its 200-day moving average after the earnings reset. This page uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$147.61 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$157.66 billion
AI score
59 / 100
Rating
High-quality wireless IP and edge AI franchise under near-term margin and Apple step-down pressure, with growing non-handset diversification
Trend status
Short, medium, and long-term momentum are all negative; price is below the 200-day average after the July 29 earnings reset
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Qualcomm sells advanced mobile, automotive, IoT, PC, RF, connectivity, and edge AI chip platforms, while QTL licenses a deep wireless patent portfolio. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from standards-essential patents, modem and RF engineering depth, Snapdragon ecosystem scale, long customer qualification cycles, and automotive design-win stickiness. | High |
| Management | Cristiano Amon has pushed Qualcomm beyond smartphones into automotive, PCs, industrial edge AI, and data center CPUs, while CFO Akash Palkhiwala outlined price increases to offset input costs. Near-term execution is now being questioned after margin pressure and the Apple step-down. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 14% to $44.284 billion while net income fell to $5.541 billion on unusually high tax expense. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue was $9.9 billion at the high end of guidance, but QCT gross margin is slightly below the historical range and Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.05 to $2.25 is below the prior consensus. | High |
| Valuation | At $147.61, financial_rigor.py calculated 17.18x TTM EPS, 5.64x book value, 15.14x free cash flow per share, and a 2.49% dividend yield. The stock trades at a lower multiple than at the July peak but near the bottom of its valuation range on reduced near-term estimates. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $147.61 on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 28.87. The long trend broke after the July 29 earnings reset and technical momentum is bearish. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because memory cost inflation, Apple modem insourcing accelerating toward a share well below the prior 20% estimate, China exposure, licensing disputes, and data center execution can all move the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, segment facts, share-count math, and source-backed technical snapshots. Lower for future data center revenue, gross margin recovery timing, and terminal multiple assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Qualcomm remains a durable franchise with strong cash generation, but the near-term earnings reset and unproven non-handset ramp mean the buy case requires visible margin recovery plus credible data center proof. | Medium-low |
QCOM AI stock forecast
The QCOM AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $147.61 July 31, 2026 close. The bullish case requires handset stabilization, price increases that restore QCT gross margins, automotive and IoT momentum, and stronger evidence around data center custom silicon. The base case assumes solid cash generation with flat to modest near-term growth as Apple revenue exits the model. The bearish case assumes persistent memory and input cost pressure, a faster Apple decline, or failed data center execution.
$195 to $334
More likely if China handset revenue rebounds as management expects, price increases restore QCT gross margins toward the 48% to 50% range, automotive and IoT keep compounding, custom silicon revenue begins in the December quarter, and QCOM reclaims the $169 to $175 zone then the $198 to $204 moving-average area. The financial_rigor.py bull scenario using 12% EPS growth and a 22x terminal P/E produced about $334 after three years.
$155 to $213
More likely if Qualcomm keeps producing strong free cash flow while investors wait for proof that non-handset revenue can replace the roughly $2 billion Apple product revenue being exited and that memory-driven gross margin pressure fades. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using 5% EPS growth and a 17x terminal P/E produced about $213 after three years, while the average analyst price target is $196.27.
$100 to $150
More likely if memory and wafer costs keep squeezing margins, Apple revenue steps down faster than guided, China handset demand stays weak, licensing disputes return, data center products miss milestones, or QCOM closes below the $121.99 52-week low. The financial_rigor.py bear scenario using 0% growth and a 12x terminal P/E produced about $130 after three years, and the lowest analyst target is $100.
QCOM AI technical analysis
QCOM AI technical analysis starts from the $147.61 July 31, 2026 close used for the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average at $198.51 and the 200-day moving average at $169.01, with 14-day RSI at 28.87 and 20-day average volume of 13.3 million shares. Barchart showed the 20-day average near $173.20, the 100-day average near $175.00, and the 200-day average near $169.01, with price below every major average. The stock is oversold on a short-term RSI basis, but the break below the 200-day average marks a bearish long-term technical shift. Because this static page does not fetch live chart data, all levels should be rechecked in a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $147.61 | Closing quote from StockAnalysis on July 31, 2026, used for this August 2, 2026 page cutoff. |
| Near support | $144 to $148 | The July 31 intraday low near $146.15 and the recent consolidation form the first planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $135 to $140, then $121.99 | A deeper risk-control band below recent price. The 52-week low of $121.99 from StockAnalysis is the key downside reference before a full thesis review. |
| Near resistance | $153 to $157 | The July 31 intraday high near $153.73 and the 5-day moving average near $157.56 from Barchart form the first overhead zone. |
| Major resistance | $169 to $175 | Barchart and StockAnalysis place the 200-day average near $169.01 and the 100-day average near $175.00. Reclaiming this zone would stabilize the longer technical read. |
| Overhead moving averages | 20-day $173.20, 50-day $198.51 | Barchart shows the 20-day average near $173.20 and StockAnalysis shows the 50-day average near $198.51. Both are far overhead, so a sustained recovery needs time and volume. |
| 200-day moving average | $169.01 | Price closed below this average at the cutoff, which is a bearish long-term technical signal after the July 29 earnings reset. |
| Momentum | RSI 28.87 (14-day), 21.00 (9-day) | StockAnalysis showed 14-day RSI at 28.87 and Barchart showed 9-day RSI near 21.00, a deeply oversold reading that often accompanies a sharp decline but does not by itself predict a reversal. |
| Volume | 13.3 million 20-day average | StockAnalysis listed 20-day average volume of 13.3 million shares; volume confirmation matters if price tries to reclaim resistance. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart showed historic volatility near 34% to 42% over 9 to 20 days and a 14-day average true range near $9.61, reflecting a high-movement environment around earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close back above $169, or below $121.99 | A decisive close back above the 200-day area would weaken the bearish setup, while a close below the $121.99 52-week low would signal deeper downside and trigger a full thesis review. |
QCOM AI trading strategy
The QCOM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with position sizing, current filings, live chart checks, earnings dates, and predefined invalidation levels.
Wait for QCOM to reclaim the $169 to $175 zone (200-day and 100-day averages) and then the $198 to $204 resistance area with semiconductor breadth, earnings quality, and volume confirmation before treating the downtrend as repaired.
Invalidate the setup if price fails below the $155 to $157 zone, or if Q4 fiscal 2026 results and commentary show worse handset, China, or margin trends than the guidance already reflects.
RSI near 28.87 is deeply oversold, but do not buy a falling knife on oversold readings alone. Compare any bounce attempt with evidence that memory cost pressure is easing, price increases are landing, and Apple step-down guidance is not worsening.
Do not average down without a maximum loss, review date, and clear evidence that free cash flow, licensing economics, and the automotive and IoT growth path remain intact.
Track QCT handset recovery in China, QCT IoT and automotive growth, QTL royalty stability, gross margin recovery from price increases, Apple product revenue exit pace, data center custom silicon revenue starting in the December quarter, HBC tape-out progress, and memory cost trends.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by data center headlines without matching customer, revenue, margin, and cash flow evidence, or when gross margin stays below the historical range for multiple quarters.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Qualcomm for high-performance, low-power computing and connectivity platforms that make phones, vehicles, PCs, edge devices, and connected products communicate and process AI workloads efficiently.
The moat is strongest in wireless patents, modem and RF systems, Snapdragon developer and OEM familiarity, scale in premium Android, long automotive qualification cycles, and licensing relationships tied to cellular standards.
The thesis can fail if Apple or Android OEMs replace more Qualcomm silicon, memory-driven input costs keep squeezing gross margins, handset units stay weak, China restrictions rise, licensing terms reset lower, data center products arrive late, or investors overpay for an unproven AI expansion.
Cristiano Amon has led a clear diversification push since becoming CEO in 2021, and Q3 fiscal 2026 showed record automotive revenue plus a 28% year-over-year gain in non-handset QCT revenue. The next test is whether management can protect margins with price increases while turning automotive, IoT, and data center ambitions into repeatable revenue.
Qualcomm sits inside long-running trends: on-device AI, connected vehicles, ADAS, industrial edge devices, 5G Advanced, Wi-Fi, AI PCs, and lower-power inference. In 2026 the handset market is contracting because of memory prices, while automotive and data center inference remain the growth channels.
At $147.61, valuation looks cheaper than the July peak, at 17.18x TTM EPS and 15.14x free cash flow per share, but estimates are falling. Margin of safety improves if non-handset revenue becomes visible while gross margins recover, or if price falls further without a matching deterioration in the long-term franchise.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM price | $147.61 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $157.66 billion; financial_rigor.py verified $147.61 x 1.068 billion shares with 0.01% variance | StockAnalysis market cap and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.07 billion current shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $44.284 billion; StockAnalysis and the fiscal 2025 10-K matched in cross-validation | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $5.541 billion; the FY2025 result was depressed by an unusually high tax expense | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $44.069 billion revenue and $9.259 billion net income through June 28, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials through June 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $10.155 billion at fiscal 2025 year-end; $8.304 billion in the current balance sheet snapshot | Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $15.270 billion in the current balance sheet snapshot | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $10.416 billion operating cash flow of $12.401 billion less capital expenditures of $1.985 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Handsets $27.793 billion, Automotive $3.957 billion, IoT $6.617 billion, QTL $5.582 billion | StockAnalysis financials and Qualcomm FY2025 segment data | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 headline results | $9.9 billion revenue, non-GAAP EPS $2.21; QCT $8.5 billion with record automotive of $1.6 billion up 61% year over year, IoT $1.8 billion up 9%, handset $5.1 billion; QTL $1.3 billion | Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 guidance | Revenue $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS $2.05 to $2.25 | Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Apple step-down | Share for the upcoming iPhone launch is expected to be materially lower than the prior estimate of 20%, with Apple product revenue in 2027 expected below the prior $2 billion-plus guidance | Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 17.18x TTM EPS, 5.64x book value, 15.14x free cash flow per share, 2.49% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $198.51, 200-day average $169.01, 14-day RSI 28.87, 20-day average volume 13.3 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Data center and non-handset roadmap | Two custom silicon wins are revenue-generating in the December quarter; HBC Gen 1 tape-out completed; Modular acquisition closed July 29, 2026; fiscal 2029 non-handset target of about $40 billion including about $15 billion in data center | Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 earnings call and Investor Day materials | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average price target of $196.27, low $100, high $400, across 37 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast from S&P Global and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
This QCOM AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, liquidity, taxes, and personal risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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