Analog Devices, Inc. research snapshot
ADI AI stock analysis currently reads Analog Devices as a high-margin analog, mixed-signal, power, sensor, and data converter company with exposure to industrial automation, automotive electronics, communications infrastructure, data center power, and high-end consumer devices. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, ADI last closed at $379.03, market capitalization was about $185.7 billion using share-count math, and the main decision point was whether record fiscal Q2 2026 growth and AI power exposure can support a premium valuation through the next semiconductor cycle. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$379.03
Market cap
About $185.7 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality analog semiconductor compounder, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Long-term uptrend with short-term pullback pressure
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ADI sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, power, sensor, and data converter chips into industrial, automotive, communications, and consumer markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from engineering depth, long product life cycles, customer qualification costs, embedded design wins, scale after Maxim, and trusted signal-chain IP. | High |
| Management | Vincent Roche has a long tenure and capital return record, while the next test is maintaining capital discipline after a strong cyclical recovery and the Empower Semiconductor acquisition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue rose 37% year over year to $3.62 billion, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of about $4.6 billion and fiscal 2025 revenue cross-validated near $11.02 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $379.03, the tool output was 57.78x TTM EPS and 40.49x free cash flow per share, so valuation depends on continued growth and high margins. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock remains far above the 52-week low but pulled back from the $445.91 high and was below key short-term moving average readings near the cutoff. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if industrial orders roll over, auto demand weakens, communications recovery stalls, data center power revenue disappoints, or valuation multiples compress. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filing-backed data and valuation math. Lower for forward returns because analog cycles and AI infrastructure demand can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because ADI is a strong analog franchise, but the current price leaves limited room for a cycle or multiple disappointment. | Medium |
ADI AI stock forecast
The ADI AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $379.03 cutoff price. The bullish case requires sustained industrial and communications growth, expanding data center power demand, and stable premium margins; the base case assumes solid execution with lower valuation support; the bearish case assumes cycle pressure and multiple compression arrive together.
$379 to $593
More likely if fiscal 2026 revenue keeps compounding from the Q2 record, industrial and communications demand remain strong, Empower adds credible AI power content, free cash flow expands, and price reclaims the $395 to $446 resistance zone on healthy volume.
$330 to $405
More likely if ADI keeps high margins and cash returns but investors apply a lower premium multiple. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using 10% EPS growth and a 42x terminal P/E produced about $366.70 after three years.
$195 to $300
More likely if industrial recovery fades, auto semiconductor content growth slows, data center power demand disappoints, net leverage or acquisition risk rises, and support fails after the data cutoff.
ADI AI technical analysis
ADI AI technical analysis starts from the $379.03 July 8, 2026 cutoff price. Recent market data put the 52-week range near $218.37 to $445.91, with the stock about 15% below the June 22 high. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and momentum should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $379.03 | MarketWatch reported this as the July 7, 2026 close used for the July 8, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $372.86 to $379.03 | Uses Barchart pivot support around $372.86 and the cutoff close. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $383.43 to $445.91 | Uses Barchart near resistance around $383.43 and the MarketWatch 52-week high of $445.91. |
| 50-day moving average | About $395 to $408 | Public technical sources varied around the cutoff. The stock was below those readings, so short-term momentum needed confirmation. |
| 200-day moving average | About $316 to $411 | Public technical sources disagreed materially. Use live broker or chart data before treating the long-term trend as confirmed. |
| Momentum | Long-term strength, short-term weakness | ADI remained well above the 52-week low but had pulled back from the June high and closed below nearby resistance. |
| Volume | 4.8 million shares on July 7 | MarketWatch reported volume slightly below the 50-day average of about 5.0 million shares. |
| Volatility | Medium-high monitoring priority | The wide 52-week range and premium valuation make position sizing more important than headline direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $372.86 | A decisive close below the near support zone would weaken the short-term setup and require a fresh review. |
ADI AI trading strategy
The ADI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings.
Wait for ADI to hold the $372.86 to $379.03 support zone, then look for a reclaim of the $395 to $408 moving-average area and a test of the $445.91 high with volume confirmation.
A close below $372.86 or a failed breakout after strong earnings should invalidate the setup.
If ADI pulls back without a business thesis break, compare the move with fiscal Q3 guidance, industrial bookings, automotive demand, communications recovery, free cash flow, and gross margin.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of valuation risk.
Track Industrial revenue mix, data center share inside Communications, automotive content growth, adjusted gross margin, free cash flow return, debt, buybacks, and Empower integration milestones.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by AI power headlines without matching revenue, margin, or cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
ADI sells precision chips that help customers sense, measure, convert, power, and connect real-world signals in products where reliability and design support matter.
ADI benefits from sticky design wins, long product cycles, field application expertise, broad catalog scale, Maxim integration, and analog IP that is hard to replace once qualified.
The stock can fail if investors overpay for a cyclical peak, industrial and auto customers destock, communications demand reverses, or AI power exposure proves smaller than the narrative.
Management has returned large free cash flow through dividends and buybacks. The key capital allocation question is whether buybacks, dividends, R&D, and bolt-on deals stay balanced at this valuation.
ADI sits in long-running electronics trends: automation, electrification, software-defined vehicles, data center power density, advanced connectivity, and intelligent edge sensing.
The current price embeds premium expectations for growth and margins. Margin of safety improves if earnings rise faster than the multiple falls, or if the stock resets toward a lower valuation band.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADI price | $379.03 close on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $185.7 billion by $379.03 x 0.490 billion shares; reported sources were near $184.7 billion to $185.9 billion depending on quote time | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 488.6 million shares at January 8, 2026; Macrotrends reported about 0.490 billion shares for the quarter ending April 30, 2026 | ADI 2026 proxy statement and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue | $3.62 billion, up 37% year over year | ADI Q2 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 end-market mix | Industrial 50%, Automotive 24%, Communications 15%, Consumer 11% of quarterly revenue | ADI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 8, 2026 |
| FY 2025 revenue | $11.02 billion consensus value, cross-validated between ADI release, Macrotrends, and Yahoo Finance | ADI FY2025 results and third-party financial databases | July 8, 2026 |
| FY 2025 net income | $2.27 billion, cross-validated between ADI annual report, Macrotrends, and AlphaQuery | ADI 2025 annual report and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $3.439 billion at fiscal Q2 2026, including $2.437 billion of cash and equivalents plus $1.002 billion of short-term investments | ADI Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 8, 2026 |
| Net debt estimate | About $5.25 billion using $1.45 billion short-term debt plus $7.235 billion long-term debt minus $3.439 billion cash and short-term investments | ADI Q2 2026 balance sheet, Yahoo Finance, and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $4.6 billion trailing twelve months, equal to about 36% of revenue | ADI Q2 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation tool output | 57.78x TTM P/E, 5.49x P/B, 40.49x P/FCF, and 1.16% dividend yield using $379.03 price and disclosed inputs | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
This ADI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 8, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, customer orders, semiconductor demand, acquisition outcomes, rates, or macro conditions change.
