Trustmark Corporation research snapshot
TRMK AI stock analysis reads Trustmark Corporation as a well-established regional bank holding company headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi, operating across Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee with around $18 billion in assets. At the July 13, 2026 data cutoff, TRMK traded near $46.27 with a verified market capitalization around $2.71 billion. Trustmark has delivered consistent earnings with a TTM net income of approximately $227 million and an ROE near 12.6%, but all four covering analysts rate the stock Hold with a consensus price target of $45.50, suggesting the current price already reflects fair value. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$46.27
Market cap
$2.71 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Stable community bank with solid profitability but limited catalysts
Trend status
Trading near 52-week high with consistent earnings, but all 4 analysts rate Hold
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Trustmark generates revenue from net interest income on loans and deposits, plus noninterest income from wealth management, insurance, and mortgage banking. The bank has a conservative credit culture and stable deposit base across five Southeastern states. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from a 135-year operating history, deep local relationships in Mississippi and Alabama, a sticky deposit base, and a diversified fee income stream from wealth management and insurance. However, moat is limited by the competitive and commoditized nature of community banking. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Duane Dewey has led the bank since 2018, maintaining consistent profitability, a stable dividend, and conservative credit standards. Management has managed expenses well and grown noninterest income. Capital allocation has prioritized dividends and organic banking over aggressive M&A. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has been stable, ranging from $194M to $203M per quarter over the trailing four quarters. TTM revenue is approximately $798M with TTM net income of $227M. Net interest margin faces pressure from the rate environment but noninterest income provides a buffer. | High |
| Valuation | At $46.27, TRMK trades at 12.3x TTM EPS of $3.77. The consensus analyst target of $45.50 suggests the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued. The 52-week range is $36.05 to $47.44, with the current price near the top of the range. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TRMK has rallied from the 52-week low of $36.05 to near $46.27, approaching the 52-week high of $47.44. The trend is positive but the stock is near the top of its range, limiting upside without a fresh catalyst. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include net interest margin compression from the rate cycle, commercial real estate credit exposure, geographic concentration in the Southeastern US, limited growth catalysts, and a consensus Hold rating with no Buy recommendations. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
TRMK AI stock forecast
The TRMK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $46.27 quote and the current TTM EPS of $3.77. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $34, a base area near $47, and a bullish area near $63 before dividends.
$60 to $65
More likely if the rate environment improves for net interest margin, loan growth accelerates in Trustmark markets, credit quality remains strong, and the market re-rates the stock closer to 14x earnings if EPS growth reaches 6% annually.
$45 to $50
More likely if TRMK compounds EPS around 3% annually with stable net interest income and manageable credit costs, while investors value the company near 11.5x forward earnings, consistent with the current analyst consensus.
$32 to $36
More likely if net interest margin contracts further, CRE credit losses rise, the Southeastern economy softens, or investors reprice the stock near 9x earnings on stagnant EPS in a recession scenario.
TRMK AI technical analysis
TRMK AI technical analysis shows a positive trend from the 52-week low but the stock is approaching the top of its established range as of the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. The stock has rallied from $36.05 to near $46.27, but with all four analysts rating Hold and a consensus target below the current price, the technical setup suggests limited near-term upside without a catalyst.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.27 | Quote as of the July 10, 2026 close. Near the 52-week high. |
| Near support | $44 to $45 | The analyst consensus target range and the post-earnings consolidation zone should provide initial support. |
| Key support | $40 to $42 | The area around the Q4 2025 and early 2026 trading range. |
| Near resistance | $47 to $48 | The 52-week high of $47.44 is the immediate overhead resistance. |
| Key resistance | $50 to $52 | The next resistance zone above the 52-week high, representing a breakout level. |
| 52-week low | $36.05 | The lower reference point; a move back toward this level would signal trend weakness. |
| Momentum | RSI neutral to slightly elevated | The stock has rallied from $36 to $46; check if RSI approaches overbought above 70 near the 52-week high. |
| Volume | Average volume near 454,000 shares | Volume has been relatively subdued, suggesting the rally lacks strong conviction. |
| Beta | 0.65 | Low beta indicates the stock is less volatile than the broad market, which limits both upside and downside relative to the S&P 500. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40 | A sustained close below the $40 to $42 support zone would weaken the near-term positive trend and suggest the rally has exhausted. |
TRMK AI trading strategy
The TRMK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a stable Southeastern regional bank near its 52-week high. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for TRMK to break above the $47.44 52-week high on volume above 600,000 shares with positive momentum. A decisive breakout would target the $50 to $52 resistance zone. The next quarterly earnings report and net interest margin commentary would be key confirmation catalysts.
A close back below $44 or a failed breakout above the 52-week high should invalidate the near-term trend-following setup.
If TRMK pulls back toward the $44 to $45 zone without a negative earnings revision, compare the pullback depth with net interest margin trends, loan growth data, and credit quality metrics before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because regional banks can gap on interest rate surprises or CRE credit events.
Track net interest margin trends, loan and deposit growth, CRE and C&I credit quality, nonperforming assets, efficiency ratio, noninterest income growth (wealth management and insurance), and tangible book value per share.
Reduce confidence if net interest margin compresses consistently, credit loss provisions rise notably, or noninterest income declines, indicating that earnings quality is deteriorating.
Investment research summary
Trustmark is a community bank that takes deposits and makes loans across five Southeastern states, supplemented by wealth management and insurance services. Customers pay for relationship-based banking, local decision-making, and convenience across approximately 150 branches.
The moat is relationship-based rather than technology-driven. Trustmark has a 135-year history in Mississippi and Alabama, a sticky low-cost deposit base, and established wealth management and insurance operations that create switching costs. However, community banking is a competitive, low-moat industry where larger regional and national banks can replicate most services.
The thesis fails if net interest margin compresses to a level where ROE falls below the cost of equity, CRE credit losses spike from a commercial real estate downturn, the Southeastern economy underperforms the national average, or deposit competition forces higher funding costs that erode spreads.
Management should be judged by net interest margin trajectory, credit quality metrics, noninterest income growth, expense control (efficiency ratio), and capital allocation decisions including dividend growth, buybacks, and any M&A activity.
Trustmark operates in the slowly evolving community banking industry, which faces long-term challenges from digital transformation, regulatory burden, and consolidation. The bank is not positioned in a high-growth or disruptive industry, but its conservative model may be resilient through cycles.
At roughly 12.3x TTM earnings and trading near the 52-week high with a consensus analyst target below the current price, margin of safety is limited. Margin of safety would improve if the stock pulls back toward the $40 to $42 support zone while earnings and net interest margin remain stable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRMK price | $46.27 | Google Finance quote snapshot | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.71 billion, verified as $46.27 x 58.61 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (estimated) | $798 million, based on Jun 2025 to Mar 2026 quarterly revenue totaling $797.73 million | Google Finance income statement quarterly data | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM net income (estimated) | $227 million, based on four trailing quarters totaling $226.62 million | Google Finance income statement quarterly data | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP EPS | $3.77 | Google Finance trailing EPS | July 13, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 12.27, verified as $46.27 / $3.77 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.61 million | Google Finance shares outstanding | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $36.05 to $47.44 | Google Finance 52-week range | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $200.16 million | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and EPS | $56.12 million net income, $0.95 EPS | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | 0 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell. Consensus target $45.50, range $44 to $47 | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 13, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.65 | Google Finance beta | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 2.16%, quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share | Google Finance dividend data | July 13, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell TRMK stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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