Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation research snapshot
AUB AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Atlantic Union Bankshares as a regional bank with improving earnings power after a strong Q2 2026. The stock traded near $43.06 on August 3, 2026, after a $42.43 close on July 31, for a market value near $6.11 billion. The Q2 2026 report, released July 21, beat expectations with adjusted operating EPS of $0.94 versus consensus of $0.92, GAAP EPS of $1.11 that includes a $32.3 million pre-tax gain on the sale of the Bearing Insurance equity interest, revenue of $403.63 million versus consensus of $384.20 million, record loan production, a nine basis point rise in the fully tax-equivalent net interest margin to 3.94%, adjusted operating return on tangible common equity of 20.11%, and no merger-related costs for the first time in two years. The bank generated 10.4% annualized period-end loan growth to $28.7 billion, kept net charge-offs at three basis points, and grew tangible book value per share 13% year over year to $20.77. Management guided 2026 fully tax-equivalent net interest income to $1.32 billion to $1.33 billion, a net interest margin of 3.90% to 3.95%, and annual tangible book value per share growth of about 12%. The AUB AI stock forecast is constructive if loan growth, margin, credit, and the $240 million remaining buyback keep compounding, but the caution is that deposit funding costs are rising, commercial real estate concentration remains meaningful, the stock sits near its 52-week high, and the tangible book value multiple is no longer cheap. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$43.06 in early trading on August 3, 2026, up 1.48% from the $42.43 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$6.11 billion computed as $43.06 x 141.92 million shares, matching the StockAnalysis and Google Finance range
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Improved earnings power after a strong Q2 2026 with no merger costs, margin expansion, and 20.11% adjusted operating ROTCE, but the valuation already reflects much of the recovery
Trend status
Price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages and within about 1.3% of the $43.62 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Atlantic Union combines wholesale and consumer banking, wealth management, insurance, equipment finance, and mortgage across Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina through about 190 branches, with roughly $38.1 billion in total assets and $1.51 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on local lending relationships, core deposits, branch density in the lower Mid-Atlantic, regulated banking licenses, and trust. It is useful for a regional bank but weaker than a technology or network-effect moat. | Medium |
| Management | CEO John C. Asbury has led the bank through the American National and Sandy Spring acquisitions, the NYSE listing transfer, and the Blackstone CRE loan sale. The CFO role transitioned to Alex Dodd as Rob Gorman retires at the end of September 2026, and Chief Credit Officer Doug Woolley plans to retire on April 1, 2027, which adds key-person transition risk even as the execution track record is strong. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 delivered adjusted operating EPS of $0.94, GAAP EPS of $1.11, revenue of $403.63 million, a nine basis point rise in the FTE net interest margin to 3.94%, 20.11% adjusted operating ROTCE, and no merger costs for the first time in two years. FY2025 revenue rose 60.63% to $1.233 billion with the Sandy Spring close, and trailing twelve-month net income reached $475.42 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $43.06, financial_rigor.py calculates about 12.89x TTM EPS of $3.34, 1.19x book value of $36.31, a 3.44% dividend yield, and a forward P/E near 10.9x based on consensus estimates. The price-to-tangible-book ratio is about 1.93x on the StockAnalysis basis and about 2.07x on the company-reported tangible book value per share of $20.77. | High |
| Technical trend | AUB traded above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $42.66, $42.25, $40.53, $38.59, and $37.40 as of the August 3, 2026 Barchart technical snapshot, and within about 1.3% of the $43.62 52-week high. The 14-day RSI near 55 to 58 is positive but not overbought. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risks include rising deposit funding costs, commercial real estate concentration, elevated second-half deposit competition, interest rate sensitivity, key-person transition in the CFO and credit officer roles, and a premium to tangible book value that limits downside protection in a credit event. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, market data, and valuation. Medium for the forward view because bank earnings depend on deposit costs, interest rates, credit migration, merger synergy timing, and buyback execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The earnings power story is more credible after Q2 2026, but the stock near $43.06 already prices in much of it. A margin of safety would require a pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $40.50 or evidence that funding costs stay contained while loan growth and credit quality hold. | Medium |
AUB AI stock forecast
The AUB AI stock forecast uses the $43.06 reference price and a forward EPS basis near $3.90 implied by the 10.9x forward P/E. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 12%, 7%, and negative 3% annual EPS growth with 12x, 10x, and 8x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $65.80, $47.80, and $28.50. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events. The bullish case needs loan growth near the high end of the mid-single-digit range, a stable-to-rising margin, contained deposit costs, low charge-offs, completed buybacks, and a recovering tangible book value trajectory. The base case assumes continued execution with modest funding cost pressure, mid-single-digit loan growth, and a valuation that holds near current levels. The bearish case assumes funding costs reaccelerate, commercial real estate losses rise, integration or credit transitions stumble, and the multiple compresses toward book value.
$60 to $68
More likely if loan growth stays at the high end of the mid-single-digit range, the FTE net interest margin holds 3.90% or better, deposit costs stabilize, charge-offs remain near the 5 to 10 basis point guidance, the $240 million remaining buyback completes near current prices, and the market keeps AUB at a premium to tangible book.
$44 to $50
More likely if AUB grows earnings at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate, the margin grinds modestly higher, funding costs stay a modest headwind, credit remains stable, and the stock trades near its forward P/E of about 10.9x.
$26 to $32
More likely if deposit costs reaccelerate faster than asset yields, commercial real estate losses rise, the CFO and credit officer transitions create execution friction, the North Carolina expansion costs more than planned, or the market reprices AUB toward 1.0x to 1.2x tangible book.
AUB AI technical analysis
AUB AI technical analysis is bullish but stretched as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded near $43.06, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $42.66, $42.25, $40.53, $38.59, and $37.40, and within about 1.3% of the $43.62 52-week high. The 14-day RSI near 55 to 58 on Barchart and near 55.33 on StockAnalysis is positive but not overbought. These levels should be confirmed against a current chart before making trading decisions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.06 | StockAnalysis real-time quote in early trading on August 3, 2026, up 1.48% from the $42.43 close on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $42.25 to $42.66 | This zone contains the 20-day moving average near $42.25 and the 5-day moving average near $42.66. A close below this area would signal a near-term pullback after the post-earnings run. |
| Secondary support | $40.40 to $40.55 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $40.53 on Barchart and $40.43 on StockAnalysis, and would be the first meaningful trend test. |
| Major support | $37.35 to $37.45 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $37.40 on Barchart and $37.37 on StockAnalysis. A sustained break below this area would damage the long-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $43.62 | The StockAnalysis and Google Finance 52-week high is $43.62. A breakout above this level with volume would open a new leg for the uptrend. |
| 5-day moving average | About $42.66 | Price traded above the 5-day moving average on August 3, 2026, which keeps near-term momentum constructive. |
| 200-day moving average | About $37.40 | Price was well above the long-term trend measure near $37.40, which supports a positive primary trend. A close below this level would damage the long-term setup. |
| Momentum | Positive but not overbought | The stock has risen about 21.5% year to date and about 31.65% over the past 52 weeks. The 14-day RSI near 55 to 58 leaves room before overbought territory near 70. |
| Volume | About 1.14 million shares on average | The 20-day average volume was about 1.14 million shares on StockAnalysis and about 1.33 million on Google Finance. A breakout above $43.62 or a breakdown with above-average volume would be more significant. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.77 to 0.79, plus bank-cycle event risk | The beta is below 1.0, but earnings, interest rates, deposits, CRE headlines, and regulatory news can still produce outsized moves in a regional bank stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $37.40 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $37.40 would weaken the long-term technical thesis and suggest the uptrend from the 2025 lows has paused. |
AUB AI trading strategy
The AUB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an improving regional bank near a 52-week high. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit cost and net interest margin trends, loan growth, credit metrics, capital ratios, buyback progress, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for AUB to hold the $42.25 to $42.66 zone and then close above $43.62 on volume above the 20-day average, with confirmation from stable or improving deposit costs, net interest margin, loan growth, credit quality, and continued buyback activity.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 20-day zone with rising volume should invalidate the near-term trend setup. Position sizing should account for a pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $40.50.
If AUB pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $40.50 or the 200-day zone near $37.40 without a deterioration in deposits, margin, non-accrual loans, CRE provisions, or capital, compare the entry level with the valuation implied by the forward P/E, tangible book value, and dividend yield.
Do not treat one strong quarter with a one-time gain as a permanent earnings floor. Bank funding costs and credit losses can move with a delay, and the current price already carries a premium to tangible book.
Track deposit growth and mix, loan growth by category, FTE net interest margin, cost of deposits, efficiency ratio, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, buyback execution, and North Carolina expansion milestones.
Reduce position confidence if deposit costs reaccelerate, the margin compresses toward the low end of the 3.90% to 3.95% guidance, CRE provisions rise faster than net interest income, CET1 falls, the buyback pauses for a prolonged period, the CFO or credit officer transition disrupts strategy, or the dividend outlook weakens.
Investment research summary
Atlantic Union earns spread income and fees by taking deposits and making loans to commercial and consumer customers across Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Customers pay for credit access, deposit convenience, treasury management, capital markets, wealth services, and a local banking relationship. The bank segments into Wholesale Banking and Consumer Banking.
The moat comes from local lending relationships, core deposit funding, a branch network of about 190 branches across the lower Mid-Atlantic, regulated banking licenses, and trust built over more than 120 years. The Sandy Spring acquisition adds scale in Maryland and nearby markets, but it does not create a technology or network-effect moat.
The Atlantic Union thesis fails if deposit funding costs rise faster than asset yields, compressing the margin and reversing the Q2 improvement. The thesis also fails if commercial real estate losses rise in a regional slowdown, the CFO and credit officer transitions create execution risk, the North Carolina expansion costs more than the guidance assumes, or the premium to tangible book value compresses as growth slows.
CEO John C. Asbury has led Atlantic Union through the American National and Sandy Spring acquisitions, the NYSE listing, and the Blackstone CRE loan sale. CFO Rob Gorman retires at the end of September 2026 and is succeeded by Alex Dodd, and Chief Credit Officer Doug Woolley plans to retire on April 1, 2027. The $250 million buyback resumed with about $10 million repurchased in Q2, leaving about $240 million, and the dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Banking is a mature industry that tracks economic growth, interest rates, and credit cycles. Atlantic Union benefits from population and business growth in its lower Mid-Atlantic footprint, including a deliberate North Carolina expansion. The industry is not undergoing a paradigm shift, but regional banks face margin pressure from deposit competition, technology spending needs, and regulatory expectations.
At about 12.89x trailing earnings, 1.19x book value, a 3.44% dividend yield, and a forward P/E near 10.9x, AUB is priced as a growing regional bank with improving returns. The price-to-tangible-book ratio of about 1.93x to 2.07x reflects the 20.11% adjusted operating ROTCE in Q2 2026, but it also means the stock has less cushion if credit or funding results disappoint. A larger margin of safety would exist if the stock pulled back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving averages without a fundamental deterioration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.06 in early trading on August 3, 2026, up 1.48% from the $42.43 July 31 close | StockAnalysis real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.11 billion | StockAnalysis, Google Finance, and market cap math verification via financial_rigor.py (0.02% deviation) | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 141.92 million | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $1.51 billion revenue, $475.42 million net income, and $3.34 EPS (TTM) | StockAnalysis statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $403.63 million revenue, $158 million net income available to common shareholders, GAAP EPS $1.11, adjusted operating EPS $0.94 versus consensus $0.92, including a $32.3 million pre-tax gain on the Bearing Insurance equity sale | StockAnalysis Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and earnings release; Google Finance income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $1.233 billion up 60.63%, net income $261.85 million up 32.74%, and EPS $2.03; Wholesale Banking segment revenue $573.13 million and Consumer Banking $456.85 million | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Total assets $38.1 billion, gross loans $28.67 billion, total deposits $30.47 billion, cash $990.3 million, total debt $1.88 billion, and shareholders equity $5.15 billion as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital and credit | CET1 ratio 10.41%, tangible book value per share $20.77 up 13% year over year, net charge-offs three basis points annualized, NPAs 39 basis points of loans, and allowance for credit losses 115 basis points of loans at the end of Q2 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $1.48 ($0.37 quarterly), 3.44% to 3.49% yield at $43.06, ex-dividend date August 7, 2026, with 15 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis dividends page and Business Wire declaration of July 23, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.69x to 12.89x P/E, 10.93x forward P/E, 1.17x to 1.19x P/B, 1.93x P/TBV on the StockAnalysis basis, 3.44% dividend yield, and 9.76% ROE (TTM) | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical data | 5-day moving average $42.66, 20-day $42.25, 50-day $40.53, 100-day $38.59, 200-day $37.40, 14-day RSI near 55.33 to 58.52, beta 0.77 to 0.79, 52-week high $43.62, 52-week low $30.39 to $30.76, and 20-day average volume about 1.14 million shares | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis statistics (August 3, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst targets and ratings | StockAnalysis consensus price target $47.00 with a Buy rating from 9 analysts; TD Cowen $48 Buy, Piper Sandler $47 Overweight, Morgan Stanley $45 Equal Weight, KBW $43 Hold, and Raymond James Hold after the Q2 report; Argus Buy with a $46 target | StockAnalysis forecast page and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | CEO John C. Asbury, CFO Alex Dodd succeeding retiring CFO Rob Gorman, Chief Credit Officer Doug Woolley to retire April 1, 2027. About 3,000 to 3,073 employees, founded in 1902, headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia, with about 190 branches | StockAnalysis company profile and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent strategic events | April 2025 acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, June 2025 sale of about $2 billion in CRE loans to Blackstone, May 5, 2026 authorization of a $250 million buyback through May 2027 with about $240 million remaining, July 23, 2026 quarterly dividend declaration, and a 10-branch North Carolina expansion with the first Raleigh branch opening in August 2026 | StockAnalysis news, Q2 2026 earnings call, and Business Wire releases | August 3, 2026 |
This AUB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if interest rates, deposit costs, loan growth, credit conditions, buyback execution, management transitions, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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