Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation research snapshot
AUB AI stock analysis currently reads Atlantic Union Bankshares as a transforming Mid-Atlantic regional bank, not a distressed name or a high-growth compounder. The stock closed at $42.06 on July 10, 2026, for a market value near $6.02 billion. FY2025 revenue was about $1.4 billion as the Sandy Spring Bancorp acquisition closed in April 2025 added scale, while Q1 2026 net income reached $122.16 million. The AUB AI stock forecast is constructive in scenarios where deposit costs stay contained, loan growth continues, credit losses remain manageable, and the Sandy Spring merger delivers the planned cost savings. The caution in any Atlantic Union stock analysis is that the commercial real estate concentration, acquisition integration, acquisition-related goodwill, and the CFPB compliance history can offset a steady earnings trajectory. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$42.06 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$6.02 billion calculated from $42.06 x 143.12 million shares, matching the current market data range
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Growing Mid-Atlantic regional bank with Sandy Spring acquisition, improving net interest income, solid capital, meaningful CRE exposure, and CFPB compliance history
Trend status
Price above both tracked moving averages and within 4% of the 52-week high, with positive year-to-date momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Atlantic Union Bankshares combines consumer and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, equipment finance, and mortgage across Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina through about 190 branches. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on local lending relationships, core deposits, branch density in the Mid-Atlantic, regulated banking licenses, and trust. It is useful for a regional bank but weaker than a technology or network-effect moat. | Medium |
| Management | CEO John C. Asbury has led the bank through the American National and Sandy Spring acquisitions, the NYSE listing transfer, and the Blackstone CRE loan sale. The track record shows an execution-oriented team while capital allocation and credit discipline will be tested by the larger Sandy Spring portfolio. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew sharply with the Sandy Spring acquisition, while Q1 2026 net income rose to $122.16 million. Net interest income improved as deposit costs stabilized. The TTM ROE near 6.70% is below pre-acquisition levels due to goodwill and integration costs. | High |
| Valuation | At $42.06, financial_rigor.py calculates about 17.90x TTM EPS, 1.20x book value, a 3.52% dividend yield, and a forward P/E near 10.28x based on analyst estimates. The forward multiple is reasonable for a regional bank, while the TTM multiple reflects elevated non-recurring costs. | High |
| Technical trend | AUB was above the 50-day moving average near $40.11 and above the 200-day moving average near $38.20 as of the StockAnalysis technical snapshot checked around July 10, 2026. The price was within 4% of the $43.62 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risks include commercial real estate loan performance, Sandy Spring integration execution, deposit competition, interest rate sensitivity, acquisition goodwill, the CFPB compliance history, and a price-to-book ratio above 1.0x that limits downside protection in a credit event. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, market data, and valuation. Medium for the forward view because bank earnings depend on credit migration, interest rates, deposit competition, and merger integration timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low to medium. The franchise value is more visible after the Sandy Spring deal, but the current valuation already reflects that improvement. A margin of safety would require either a lower entry price or evidence that ROE can recover to 10% or higher. | Medium |
AUB AI stock forecast
The AUB AI stock forecast uses the $42.06 reference price and $2.35 TTM EPS. The risk-reward at the July 10 close is tilted toward the bearish side of the three-year scenario range. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 12%, 6%, and negative 3% annual EPS growth with 16x, 13x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $52.80, $36.40, and $21.40. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events. The bullish case needs loan growth, Sandy Spring cost saves, contained deposit costs, stable CRE credit, and a recovering ROE, plus market expansion toward the forward P/E. The base case assumes steady revenue and earnings growth, decent merger benefits, and normal credit costs but no large improvement. The bearish case assumes a CRE credit deterioration, higher funding costs, slower deposit growth, or integration problems that compress the multiple toward book value.
$48 to $57
More likely if loan growth and net interest income expand with stable deposit costs, Sandy Spring integration delivers the planned cost saves and revenue synergies, credit losses stay in a normal range, and the market awards AUB a 14x to 16x forward P/E.
$34 to $39
More likely if AUB grows earnings at a high single-digit rate, the NIM stays near current levels, deposits remain stable, commercial real estate losses stay manageable, and the stock trades near 12x to 13x earnings.
$20 to $26
More likely if CRE loss content rises, deposit costs reaccelerate, Sandy Spring integration costs exceed guidance, the CFPB or other regulatory attention intensifies, and the market reprices AUB near 1.0x book value.
AUB AI technical analysis
AUB AI technical analysis was moderately constructive at the July 10, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $40.11, a 200-day moving average near $38.20, and a 52-week high near $43.62. AUB closed at $42.06, which was above both major averages and close to the high end of the recent range. The July 10 close was the most recent verified session before the July 12 research date. These levels should be confirmed against a current chart before making trading decisions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $42.06 | Google Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026, the last completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $40.00 to $41.00 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $40.11. A close below this area would weaken the near-term structure. |
| Secondary support | $37.50 to $38.50 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $38.20 and would be a more significant trend test. |
| Near resistance | $43.00 to $43.62 | The StockAnalysis 52-week high was near $43.62. A breakout above this level with volume would signal a new uptrend leg. |
| 50-day moving average | About $40.11 | Price was above the intermediate trend measure at the data cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $38.20 | Price was above the long-term trend measure, which supports a positive primary trend. A close below this level would damage the long-term setup. |
| Momentum | Positive but not overbought | The stock has been in a steady uptrend from the $30s. At $42.06 it was close to the high end of the range, so pullback risk exists even within a constructive trend. |
| Volume | About 1.11 million shares on average | Google Finance showed average volume near 1.23 million. A breakout or breakdown with above-average volume would be more significant. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.79, plus bank-cycle event risk | The beta is below 1.0, but earnings, interest rates, deposits, CRE headlines, and regulatory news can still produce outsized moves in a regional bank stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $38.20 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $38.20 would weaken the long-term technical thesis and suggest the uptrend from the 2025 lows has paused. |
AUB AI trading strategy
The AUB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a transforming regional bank. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit and net interest margin trends, Sandy Spring integration disclosures, CRE credit metrics, capital ratios, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for AUB to hold the $40.00 to $41.00 zone and then close above $43.62 on volume that exceeds the 20-day average, with confirmation from stable or improving bank-sector data, deposit flows, net interest margin, and credit quality.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone with increasing volume should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If AUB pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day zones without a deterioration in deposits, NIM, non-accrual loans, CRE provisions, or capital, compare the entry level with the valuation implied by the forward P/E, book value, and dividend yield.
Do not treat one quarter of stable charge-offs as a permanent credit floor. Bank credit losses can appear with a delay, especially after a large acquisition.
Track deposit growth and mix, loan growth by category, NIM, efficiency ratio, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CET1, Sandy Spring cost save milestones, tangible book value per share, and tangible ROE.
Reduce position confidence if deposits shrink or reprice sharply, CRE provisions rise faster than net interest income, goodwill impairments appear, CET1 falls, the dividend is cut or frozen, or if the CFPB or other regulator escalates enforcement.
Investment research summary
Atlantic Union earns spread income and fees by taking deposits and making loans to commercial and consumer customers across Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Customers pay for credit access, deposit convenience, treasury management, wealth services, and a local banking relationship.
The moat comes from local lending relationships, core deposit funding, a 190-branch network in the Mid-Atlantic, regulated banking licenses, and the trust built over 120 years of operation. The Sandy Spring acquisition adds scale in Maryland and nearby states but does not create a technology or network-effect moat.
The Atlantic Union investment thesis fails if the Sandy Spring acquisition does not deliver the planned cost saves and revenue synergies, causing goodwill impairment or dilution. The thesis also fails if commercial real estate losses rise faster than expected, deposit costs reprice faster than asset yields, or the CFPB overdraft history signals a broader compliance problem that limits growth or increases regulatory costs.
CEO John C. Asbury has led Atlantic Union through the American National and Sandy Spring acquisitions, the NYSE listing, and the $2 billion CRE loan sale to Blackstone. Chair Ronald L. Tillett and President Maria Tedesco provide long industry experience. The capital allocation test is whether the Sandy Spring deal creates tangible book value per share growth above the cost of equity over the next three years.
Banking is a mature industry that tracks economic growth, interest rates, and credit cycles. Atlantic Union benefits from population and business growth in its Mid-Atlantic footprint. The industry is not undergoing a paradigm shift, but regional banks face margin pressure from deposit competition, technology spending needs, and regulatory expectations.
At 17.90x TTM EPS, 1.20x book value, and a 3.52% dividend yield, AUB is priced as a stable regional bank with a credible growth story from the Sandy Spring acquisition. The forward P/E of about 10.28x based on analyst estimates is more attractive, but it depends on the bank delivering full-year Sandy Spring earnings. The margin of safety is limited at the current price because the TTM ROE of about 6.70% does not yet support the book value premium. A larger margin of safety would exist if the stock pulled back toward the 200-day moving average without a fundamental deterioration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $42.06 close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance AUB quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.02 billion | Google Finance and market cap math verification via financial_rigor.py (0.01% deviation) | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 143.12 million | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $1.4 billion revenue and $334 million to $346 million net income (TTM) | Google Finance financials and Yahoo Finance summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $364.42 million revenue, $122.16 million net income, and $0.89 diluted EPS | Google Finance income statement for Atlantic Union Bankshares | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 quarterly trend | Q2 2025 revenue $297.19 million, Q3 2025 revenue $354.73 million, Q4 2025 revenue $384.96 million; net income rose from $19.79 million in Q2 2025 (Sandy Spring close quarter) to $92.14 million, $111.97 million, and $122.16 million | Google Finance income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Total cash $881.06 million, CET1 ratio 10.91% (estimated), total equity $4.96 billion, and total assets exceeding $35 billion including Sandy Spring acquisition | Yahoo Finance statistics and Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $1.48 ($0.37 quarterly), 3.52% yield at $42.06 | Google Finance, ex-dividend date May 22, 2026 | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 17.90x P/E, 1.20x P/B, 10.28x forward P/E, 3.52% dividend yield, and 6.70% ROE (TTM) using financial_rigor.py | Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average about $40.11, 200-day moving average about $38.20, beta 0.79, 20-day average volume 1.23 million, 52-week high $43.62 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis statistics (as checked around July 10, 2026) | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | CEO John C. Asbury, Chair Ronald L. Tillett, President Maria Tedesco. Founded in 1902, headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia, with about 3,000 employees and 190 branches | Wikipedia and Atlantic Union Bank website | July 12, 2026 |
| Recent strategic events | April 2025 acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp ($1.6 billion deal), June 2025 sale of $2 billion CRE loans to Blackstone, December 2023 CFPB $6.2 million overdraft settlement, January 2023 NYSE listing from Nasdaq | Wikipedia, SEC filings, and press releases | July 12, 2026 |
This AUB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if credit conditions, interest rates, deposit costs, Sandy Spring integration outcomes, commercial real estate losses, regulatory developments, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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