Bullish case
$36 to $42 before dividends
More likely if FULT compounds EPS near 10% annually through successful M&A integration and organic growth, credit stays clean, NIM expands, fee income grows, and the market applies a P/E closer to 14x.
Fulton Financial Corporation research snapshot
FULT AI Stock Analysis
FULT AI stock analysis reads Fulton Financial Corporation as a well-established regional bank holding company serving Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Virginia. Founded in 1882 and headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, Fulton operates over 200 banking centers under the Fulton Bank brand with more than $32 billion in total assets. At the August 1, 2026 data cutoff, FULT traded near $24.33 with an independently verified market capitalization of approximately $4.65 billion. The stock is trading about 3.6% below its 52-week high of $25.23 after Q2 2026 earnings reported on July 23, 2026 beat EPS estimates ($0.60 actual vs $0.54 consensus). The technical setup is constructive: price sits above the 50-day moving average near $23.36 and the 200-day moving average near $20.83, with a roughly 25.9% YTD gain. Valuation remains moderate at about 11.6x trailing earnings, 1.19x book value, and a dividend yield near 3.1%. However, regional bank earnings depend on net interest margin trends, credit costs, deposit competition, and the pace of M&A integration. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$24.33
Market cap
$4.65 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Solidly capitalized Mid-Atlantic regional bank with a Q2 2026 EPS beat, a growing deposit base, active M&A execution, and a sustainable dividend yield, offset by credit-cycle uncertainty and sector-wide NIM pressure
Trend status
Constructive near 52-week highs with price above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, supported by positive YTD momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. FULT is a long-established NASDAQ-listed bank with regular SEC filings, current earnings releases, and analyst coverage from 4 firms (Raymond James, Piper Sandler, D.A. Davidson, KBW). Q2 2026 results were published on July 23, 2026. Data density is moderate relative to mega-cap banks.
- bias Check
- The main AI research bias is extrapolating the recent rally toward 52-week highs forward while underweighting the fact that regional banks are early-cycle leveraged plays that can reverse quickly when credit costs rise, deposit competition intensifies, or the yield curve inverts. The M&A integration risk from the Republic First acquisition and the announced Blue Foundry merger should also be monitored.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap, shares outstanding, TTM revenue, TTM net income, EPS, dividend yield, P/E, P/B, book value, and basic valuation ratios confirmed via financial_rigor.py. Medium for forward scenarios because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit losses, deposit competition, M&A execution, and regulatory capital requirements.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. FULT has transparent public data, a 144-year operating history, and a solid capital base. Investment certainty is lower than data confidence because FULT is a leveraged financial institution with macro sensitivity, concentrated exposure in the Mid-Atlantic region, and earnings tied to the economic cycle.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fulton generates spread income from lending (commercial real estate, C&I, construction, residential mortgage, consumer) and fee income from wealth management (trust, brokerage, advisory, insurance). The deposit franchise is core-funded and relationship-driven. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing local relationships, 144 years of brand history in the Mid-Atlantic, core deposit funding, regulatory licensing, and switching costs in treasury and trust services. Regional banking is still competitive on rates and convenience, which limits moat depth. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Curtis J. Myers has led Fulton since 2019, navigating the Columbia Bank integration, the Prudential Bancorp acquisition (2022), the FDIC-assisted Republic First Bank acquisition (2024), and the announced Blue Foundry Bancorp merger. Capital allocation balances organic growth, strategic M&A, dividends, and share buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown from $997 million (2021) to $1.89 billion (2025), driven largely by acquisitions. TTM net income is approximately $397 million with EPS near $2.10. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.60 beat consensus of $0.54. ROE is 11.15% and ROA is 1.15%, in line with regional bank averages. | High |
| Valuation | At $24.33, FULT trades at about 11.6x TTM EPS, 1.19x book value, and near 11.7x P/FCF with a dividend yield around 3.1%. These multiples are below the broader market but generally in line with regional bank sector valuations. | High |
| Technical trend | Price near $24.33 is about 3.6% below the 52-week high of $25.23 and above the 52-week midpoint of $16.60 to $25.23. The stock has strong YTD momentum of roughly 25.9% and is trading above both the 50-day (~$23.36) and 200-day (~$20.83) moving averages, supporting a constructive near-term outlook. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are commercial real estate credit exposure, net interest margin compression from deposit competition, M&A integration execution (Republic First, Blue Foundry), regulatory capital requirements, and sector-wide sensitivity to the rate cycle. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because current facts are public and cross-checked via financial_rigor.py. Return confidence is lower because rates, credit costs, deposits, and regional bank sentiment can shift quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FULT offers a reasonable valuation, a sustainable dividend near 3.1%, active M&A-driven growth, and a 144-year operating history, but a buy decision depends on credit stability, NIM trends, M&A integration success, and the broader regional bank outlook. | Medium |
FULT AI stock forecast
FULT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FULT AI stock forecast is scenario-based because regional bank earnings depend on NIM, loan growth, deposit costs, credit losses, M&A execution, and capital management. Using the $24.33 reference price, about $2.10 EPS, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to roughly $15.90 in a bear case, $28.10 in a base case, and $39.30 in a bullish case before dividends.
Base case
$26 to $30 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near 5% annually, credit remains manageable, NIM holds steady, deposits stay stable, M&A synergies materialize on schedule, and the market values FULT near 11.5x earnings.
Bearish case
$15 to $19 before dividends
More likely if credit losses rise on commercial real estate, deposit costs squeeze NIM, M&A integration encounters delays or writedowns, or the market applies a P/E near 8x to stressed earnings.
FULT AI technical analysis
FULT AI Technical Analysis
FULT AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 31, 2026 market close, but the stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range. The 52-week range is $16.60 to $25.23. At $24.33, FULT is closer to resistance than support, so risk control matters for shorter-term positioning.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $24.33 | July 31, 2026 market close used for all valuation math at the data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $23.30 to $23.50 | This area near the 50-day moving average ($23.36) acts as the first support zone before the stock revisits the $22 levels. |
| Deeper support | $20.80 to $21.10 | This zone represents the lower part of the recent consolidation range and aligns with the 200-day moving average ($20.83). |
| Near resistance | $25.20 to $25.30 | This area brackets the 52-week high of $25.23. A clean break above it with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| Upper resistance | $26.00 to $27.00 | This range aligns with the consensus analyst target area. Reaching it likely requires earnings momentum and stable credit. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $23.36, 200-day near $20.83 | Price above both averages supports a constructive trend. The gap between them is widening, reflecting positive momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI likely in the warm 55-70 range | YTD return is approximately 25.9%. Momentum is positive but the stock is not yet in overbought territory near 52-week highs. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.15 million shares per day | Liquidity is sufficient for retail and institutional positioning. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout above $25.23. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 2026 earnings, expected in October 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings were reported on July 23, 2026 and beat EPS estimates, making Q3 results the next main near-term catalyst. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.80, then below $16.60 | A sustained break below $20.80 would reduce trend confidence. A break below the 52-week low of $16.60 would signal a bearish reversal. |
FULT AI trading strategy
FULT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FULT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NIM, credit quality, deposits, loan growth, M&A execution, fee income, capital ratios, and sector sentiment.
Trend-following setup
Watch for FULT to hold above $23.30 and break above $25.23 with volume, supported by Q3 earnings confirming stable credit, steady NIM, and positive M&A integration progress.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $22.90 should reduce confidence, especially if guidance signals higher credit costs or tighter NIM.
Mean-reversion setup
If FULT pulls back toward $20.80 to $21.50 while credit and deposit fundamentals remain intact, compare the lower price with book value (~$20.36), tangible book value (~$16.98), dividend yield (~3.1%), and normalized EPS.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if credit quality deteriorates, NIM guidance weakens, or M&A integration issues surface.
Fundamental monitor
Track NIM, net interest income, average deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, CET1 ratio, tangible book value per share, fee income, M&A integration milestones, buyback authorization, and insider trading patterns.
Position sizing should reflect that FULT is a leveraged regional bank with macro sensitivity and active M&A risk, not a high-predictability compounding business.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Fulton for deposit services, lending (commercial real estate, C&I, construction, residential mortgage, consumer), wealth management (trust, brokerage, advisory, insurance), and treasury solutions. The bank earns net interest income on funded assets plus fee income across its Mid-Atlantic footprint.
Moat
Fulton benefits from 144 years of brand recognition in Pennsylvania and surrounding states, local relationship banking, core deposit funding, and regulatory licensing. The moat is real but limited: regional banking is competitive on rates, technology, and convenience, and customers can switch to national banks or fintech alternatives.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if commercial real estate credit losses rise sharply, deposit competition squeezes NIM, the announced Blue Foundry merger runs into integration trouble, or regulators demand higher capital levels. The Republic First FDIC-assisted acquisition could also carry unforeseen credit issues.
Management
CEO Curtis J. Myers has led Fulton since 2019 with a focus on strategic M&A, digital investment, and franchise expansion. The key-person question is whether management maintains credit discipline and deposit quality through the cycle while integrating multiple acquisitions smoothly.
Industry trend
Regional banks remain essential for small-business lending, commercial credit, and local deposit relationships in the US. The headwinds are technology-driven deposit migration, large-bank dominance, fintech competition, rate-cycle pressure on NIM, and industry consolidation that rewards scale.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $24.33, FULT trades at about 11.6x TTM EPS with a dividend yield near 3.1% and 1.19x book value. The valuation offers upside if normalized EPS grows toward the base case of $28.10. Margin of safety improves if credit stays clean, deposits hold, M&A synergies materialize, and NIM stabilizes.
Source-backed data
FULT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $24.33 as of the July 31, 2026 close | FMP quote and Google Finance FULT summary quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $4.65 billion using $24.33 price and about 191.13 million common shares | FMP quote and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 1, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 191.13 million, cross-checked against Google Finance | Google Finance FULT statistics and FMP profile | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | Approximately $1.95 billion TTM revenue and $397 million TTM net income across the last four reported quarters | FMP income statement and financial_rigor.py cross-check | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | EPS of $0.60 beat consensus of $0.54, with net income of $102.41 million for the quarter ended June 2026 | Google Finance FULT earnings and FMP income statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Capital and credit quality | Total equity of $3.49 billion, ROE of 11.15%, ROA of 1.15%, and P/B of 1.19x | FMP key metrics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 1, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and liquidity | Total assets of $32.12 billion with cash and short-term investments of approximately $3.41 billion at December 2025 | FMP balance sheet statement December 2025 | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 11.6x TTM PE, 1.19x PB, 11.7x P/FCF, and a dividend yield near 3.1% by financial_rigor.py verification | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 1 Buy, 3 Hold ratings, average price target of $25.00, high $26.00 (Raymond James), low $23.00 (Piper Sandler) | Google Finance FULT analyst ratings and FMP price target consensus | August 1, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This FULT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if interest rates, credit costs, deposit competition, M&A integration outcomes, capital rules, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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