Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. research snapshot
TR AI stock analysis currently reads Tootsie Roll Industries as a family-controlled confectionery company with iconic brands such as Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, Andes, and Charleston Chew. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, TR traded near $39.42 with a verified market capitalization near $2.96 billion. Second quarter 2026 results, released July 22, 2026, showed net sales down about 1% and EPS down 22% to $0.18, pressured by higher cocoa and energy costs, while management expects those costs to ease in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. The stock trades at roughly 31x trailing earnings for a business with flat revenue, a net cash balance sheet, a 57-year dividend growth record, and a very low public float that has attracted retail attention. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$39.42
Market cap
$2.96 billion
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Iconic brands, family control, flat growth, richer multiple
Trend status
Sideways between $33 and $45, price above its 200-day average, low volatility
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tootsie Roll sells affordable candy brands with decades of household recognition, strong cash generation, and almost no debt. The downside is flat to slightly declining sales, commodity cost sensitivity, and a management culture that prizes stability over growth. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand recognition, supply chain relationships, and shelf space heritage provide a narrow moat, but switching costs for candy are near zero and private label competition is real. The moat is narrow and has not widened in recent years. | Medium |
| Management | The Gordon family controls the company through dual-class shares and over 50% of voting power. Ellen R. Gordon remains Chairman and CEO, with family members in key operating roles. Capital allocation is conservative: steady dividends, no major acquisitions, and small share growth from stock dividends. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $732.5 million, up 1.3%, and net income was $100.1 million, up 15.2%. Second quarter 2026 EPS fell 22% to $0.18 on higher cocoa and energy costs, leaving TTM EPS near $1.27. Margins are healthy but under pressure. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $39.42, TR trades at about 31x TTM earnings, roughly 4x sales, and 3.1x book value. For a company with near-flat organic growth and a weak recent quarter, the multiple sits above its recent historical range and offers limited margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TR is range-bound between roughly $33.4 and $45.1 with very low average volume near 174,000 to 231,000 shares. Beta is about 0.4. Price sits just above its 50-day and 200-day averages, but signals are noisy and the low float raises the risk of retail-driven spikes. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Main risks include cocoa and energy cost pressure, tariffs, health and wellness trends, private label competition, family governance and succession, and a low float that can amplify moves beyond the fundamentals. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for balance sheet facts and ratio math. Medium for growth projections and technical levels given thin coverage and low volume. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
TR AI stock forecast
The TR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $39.42 quote and trailing EPS near $1.27 through the June 2026 quarter. The framework produced a bullish area near $43 to $46, a base area near $37 to $41, and a bearish area near $30 to $34 before dividends, assuming cocoa cost relief, revenue trends, and market multiples move as expected.
$43 to $46
More likely if lower cocoa and chocolate costs flow through supply chains in the second half of 2026 and into 2027, gross margin recovers, sales re-accelerate modestly through seasonal strength, and the stock holds a multiple near 28x to 30x on recovering EPS.
$37 to $41
More likely if revenue stays roughly flat, input costs ease only gradually, EPS stabilizes near $1.27 to $1.35, and the stock keeps trading in a 28x to 31x band, consistent with the recent Argus target near $41.
$30 to $34
More likely if cost relief is delayed, trade promotion intensity keeps weighing on reported sales, health and wellness trends or tariffs hurt demand, and the multiple compresses toward 25x to 27x.
TR AI technical analysis
TR AI technical analysis is range-bound with low volatility as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $39.42 on August 3, 2026, within a 52-week range of $33.43 to $45.06, and above both its 50-day average near $38.44 and its 200-day average near $39.00. Average daily volume is very low near 174,000 to 231,000 shares, which makes signals less reliable, while a public float of only about 21 million shares leaves room for sharp moves on retail interest.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.42 | Quote snapshot at the August 3, 2026 close, checked August 4, 2026, placed TR near $39.42. |
| 50-day average | $38.44 | TR trades just above its 50-day moving average, which acts as a mild near-term support reference. |
| 200-day average | $39.00 | The 200-day moving average sits near the current price and acts as a pivot reference. |
| Key support | $33.43 | The 52-week low is $33.43. A decisive close below this level would set a new lower range. |
| Near resistance | $39.97 to $40 | The August 3 intraday high was $39.97, with round-number resistance near $40. |
| Upper resistance | $45.06 | The 52-week high is $45.06, which represents the upper boundary of the current range. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54 | RSI of about 54 on August 3, 2026 is neutral, consistent with a low-beta, range-bound stock. |
| Volume | Average volume near 174,000 to 231,000 shares | Very low volume and a small float make breakouts less trustworthy and can exaggerate moves when retail interest appears. |
| Volatility | Low, beta about 0.4 | TR has very low volatility relative to the broader market, though low-float dynamics can create occasional spikes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.43 or above $45.06 | A decisive close outside the 52-week range would signal a potential trend change. Until then, range-bound trading is the dominant pattern. |
TR AI trading strategy
The TR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a low-float, family-controlled confectionery stock. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level. Given low volume, the framework leans on mean-reversion around range extremes.
TR is better suited to mean-reversion than trend-following. Watch for pullbacks toward the 50-day average near $38.40 or toward $37 with decreasing downside momentum, targeting $40 to $42 as the upper end of the range.
A close below the 52-week low of $33.43 or a negative earnings report that cuts the dividend would invalidate the setup. Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because low liquidity can widen spreads.
Trend-following is difficult on TR given the tight range and low volume. If price breaks above $45.06 on sustained above-average volume, a trend-following approach could be considered with a wide stop.
A false breakout above $45.06 is a real risk on low volume. Wait for multiple closes above resistance before treating it as a trend signal.
Track Tootsie Rolls quarterly revenue, gross margin trajectory around cocoa and chocolate costs, non-chocolate sales mix, dividend consistency, and any changes in the family governance structure. Watch short interest and volume for low-float retail dynamics.
Reduce confidence if gross margin compression persists, the dividend is suspended or cut, insider selling accelerates, or the stock makes large moves on volume that does not match reported fundamentals.
Investment research summary
Tootsie Roll sells affordable candy brands that have been household names for generations. Customers pay a small amount for a familiar taste, and retailers stock the brands because they turn reliably on shelves.
The moat comes from brand heritage, long supplier and retailer relationships, and shelf space in mass, drug, grocery, dollar, and vending channels. Switching costs for candy are near zero, so pricing power is limited by commodity costs and competition.
The thesis fails if cocoa costs stay structurally elevated, consumers shift away from sugar, private label takes meaningful shelf space, tariffs raise input costs, or family management becomes a liability rather than a stability asset. Succession is a growing question as the 94-year-old CEO remains in charge.
The Gordon family controls over 50% of voting power through dual-class shares. Capital allocation is conservative: no major acquisitions, little debt, steady dividend growth. The trade-off is that the company rarely makes bold moves to adapt to changing consumer habits or cost shocks.
Confectionery is a mature, slow-growth industry. US candy consumption is stable but faces secular headwinds from health awareness, GLP-1 drugs that affect appetite, sugar taxes, and younger consumers shifting to premium or better-for-you snacks. Halloween seasonality remains important for Tootsie Roll.
At roughly 31x trailing earnings and about 4x sales with flat growth, TR has limited margin of safety. The base-case three-year scenario suggests the stock could trade near $37 to $41, roughly in line with current levels, while the bear case points lower to $30 to $34.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TR price | $39.42 | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance quote snapshot | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.96 billion, verified as $39.42 x 75.05 million shares reported in the Q2 2026 press release | StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and Tootsie Roll Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $732.5 million through the June 2026 quarter, cross-checked from quarterly filings and press releases | Tootsie Roll Q2 2026 press release and quarterly filings | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $95.5 million net income and about $1.27 EPS through the June 2026 quarter | Tootsie Roll Q2 2026 press release and TTM quarterly calculation | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net sales $151.9 million, down 1%; EPS $0.18, down 22%; cocoa and energy costs pressured margins | Tootsie Roll Q2 2026 earnings press release, July 22, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $732.5 million revenue, up 1.3%; $100.1 million net income, up 15.2% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $169.7 million cash and investments, $13.6 million debt, about $156.2 million net cash as of Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.36 annualized ($0.09 quarterly), yield 0.91%, 57 years of dividend growth, payout near 27% | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and technicals | $33.43 to $45.06; 50-day average $38.44; 200-day average $39.00; RSI near 54 | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Average volume and float | Average volume near 174,000 to 231,000 shares; public float only about 21 million shares | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Ownership and governance | Gordon family controls over 50% of voting power via dual-class shares; insider ownership reported near 72% | Tootsie Roll proxy statement summary and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst | Argus Research rates TR Hold with a $41.00 target price, July 30, 2026 | Yahoo Finance research reports | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell TR stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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