Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. research snapshot
TR AI stock analysis currently reads Tootsie Roll Industries as a family-controlled confectionery company with iconic brands like Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, and Charleston Chew. At the July 13, 2026 data cutoff, TR traded near $38.16 with a verified market capitalization near $2.87 billion. The business has a clean balance sheet and insider ownership near 47%, but revenue is barely growing, cocoa and sugar input costs remain volatile, and the stock trades at a P/E multiple above 28x for a near-flat earnings trajectory. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$38.16
Market cap
$2.87 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Iconic brands, family control, slow growth
Trend status
Range-bound between $33 and $45, low volatility
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tootsie Roll sells affordable candy brands with decades of household recognition, strong cash generation, and virtually no debt. The downside is flat to declining revenue, commodity cost sensitivity, and a management culture that prioritizes stability over growth. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand recognition and shelf space heritage provide some moat, but switching costs for candy are low and private label competition is real. The moat is narrow and not widening. | Medium |
| Management | Family-controlled for generations with Ellen Gordon as CEO. Capital allocation is conservative: minimal M&A, small but steady dividends, no buybacks disclosed at scale. Stability is the strategy, for better and worse. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2024 revenue was $715.5 million, down 6.3% year-over-year. TTM revenue through Q1 2026 aggregated to roughly $735.6 million. Net margins are healthy near 13.5%, but growth is absent. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $38.16, TR trades at about 28.7x TTM P/E, 3.0x book value, and 3.9x sales. For a company with near-zero organic growth and commodity margin headwinds, the multiple is elevated relative to history and peers. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TR is range-bound between roughly $33 and $45 with very low average volume near 220,000 shares. Beta is 0.39. The stock does not trend well and is better suited to mean-reversion frameworks. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Main risks include cocoa and sugar inflation, health and wellness trends reducing confectionery demand, private label competition, family governance rigidity, and low trading liquidity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for balance sheet facts and ratio math. Medium for growth projections and technical levels given thin coverage and low volume. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
TR AI stock forecast
The TR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $38.16 quote and Tootsie Rolls TTM EPS near $1.33. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $43.55, a base area near $35.60, and a bearish area near $27.50 before dividends.
$42 to $45
More likely if Tootsie Roll manages cocoa inflation through pricing and mix shift to non-chocolate lines (Blow Pops, gum, Dots), Charms plant expansion in Tennessee starts contributing, and steady dividend growth attracts income-oriented buyers.
$34 to $38
More likely if revenue stays flat to slightly positive, input costs remain elevated but manageable, EPS trends sideways, and the stock continues trading in its historical range around 26x to 30x earnings.
$26 to $29
More likely if cocoa prices stay elevated, private label and value brands take shelf space, health/wellness trends reduce per-capita candy consumption, and the stock re-rates closer to 22x earnings.
TR AI technical analysis
TR AI technical analysis is range-bound with low volatility as of the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded near $38.16 with a 52-week range of $32.84 to $45.06. Average daily volume is very low near 220,000 shares, which means price moves can be exaggerated on light flow. Momentum indicators tend to be noisy rather than trend-reliable.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.16 | Quote snapshot around the July 13, 2026 cutoff placed TR near $38.16. |
| Near support | $35 to $36 | TR found buying interest near $35 to $36 during recent pullbacks, making this the first support zone. |
| Key support | $32.84 | The 52-week low is $32.84. A break below this level would set a new lower range. |
| Near resistance | $40 to $42 | TR has faced selling pressure near $40 to $42 in recent months, consistent with the middle to upper portion of the range. |
| Upper resistance | $45.06 | The 52-week high is $45.06, which represents the upper boundary of the current range. |
| Momentum | RSI near neutral, typically 45 to 55 | RSI tends to stay in the neutral zone given the low-beta, range-bound nature of the stock. |
| Volume | Average volume near 220,000 shares | Very low volume makes technical signals less reliable. Breakouts and breakdowns on low volume should be treated with caution. |
| Volatility | Low, beta 0.39 | TR has very low volatility compared to the broader market. Price swings are muted. |
| Invalidation | Close below $32.84 or above $45.06 | A decisive close outside the 52-week range would signal a potential trend change. Until then, range-bound trading is the dominant pattern. |
TR AI trading strategy
The TR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a low-volatility, family-controlled confectionery stock. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
TR is better suited to mean-reversion than trend-following. Watch for pullbacks toward $33 to $35 with decreasing downside momentum. Entry near the lower end of the range, targeting $40 to $42 as the upper end.
A close below $32.84 or a negative earnings report that cuts the dividend would invalidate the mean-reversion setup. Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because low liquidity can widen spreads.
Trend-following is difficult on TR given the tight range and low volume. If price breaks above $45.06 on above-average volume and sustained buying, a trend-following approach could be considered with a wide stop.
A false breakout above $45.06 is a real risk on low volume. Wait for multiple closes above resistance before treating it as a trend signal.
Track Tootsie Rolls quarterly revenue, gross margin trajectory (especially cocoa and sugar costs), non-chocolate revenue mix, dividend consistency, insider buying or selling, and any changes in the family governance structure.
Reduce confidence if gross margin compression persists, the dividend is suspended or cut, or insider selling accelerates. The absence of management guidance makes fundamental monitoring more reliant on raw financial statements.
Investment research summary
Tootsie Roll sells affordable candy products that have been household names for generations. Customers pay a small amount for a familiar taste, and retailers stock them because they turn reliably on shelves.
The moat comes from brand heritage, supply chain relationships, and shelf space in mass, drug, grocery, dollar, and vending channels. Switching costs for candy are near zero, so pricing power is limited by commodity costs and competition.
The thesis fails if cocoa prices stay structurally higher, consumers shift away from sugar, private label brands take meaningful shelf space, or the family management becomes a liability rather than a stability asset.
The Gordon family controls about 47% of shares. Capital allocation is conservative: no major acquisitions, little debt, steady dividends. The trade-off is that the company rarely makes bold moves to adapt to changing consumer habits or input cost shocks.
Confectionery is a mature, slow-growth industry. US candy consumption has been stable but faces secular headwinds from health awareness, GLP-1 drugs affecting appetite, and younger consumers trading up to premium or better-for-you snacks.
At roughly 28.7x TTM earnings and 3.9x sales with no growth, TR has limited margin of safety. The base-case three-year scenario suggests the stock could trade near $35 to $36, roughly in line with current levels, while the bear case points lower to $27 to $29.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TR price | $38.16 | Google Finance quote snapshot | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.87 billion, verified as $38.16 x 75.2 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $735.6 million, cross-checked against individual quarterly filings | Tootsie Roll Q1 2026 10-Q and FY2024 10-K | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $99.7 million, cross-validated across TTM quarters | Tootsie Roll quarterly filings | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.33 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $169.7 million cash, virtually no debt (debt/equity 1.43%) | Tootsie Roll balance sheet | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.36 annualized, yield 0.94% | Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $32.84 to $45.06 | Financhill and Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Average volume | Approximately 217,000 to 345,000 shares | Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | Approximately 47% | Seeking Alpha and Simply Wall St | July 13, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell TR stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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