Mondelez International, Inc. research snapshot
MDLZ AI stock analysis currently reads Mondelez International as a high-quality global snacking business with strong brands, emerging-market growth, and recurring consumer demand, but with a lower-confidence entry point because cocoa inflation, weak North America volumes, and margin pressure are still visible in 2026 results. The analysis supports scenario-based monitoring rather than a single price prediction: the base case depends on steady organic revenue growth, better volume/mix, and a gradual recovery in adjusted EPS and free cash flow.
Current price
$60.22
Market cap
$77.3 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality snack franchise, margin recovery watch
Trend status
Mixed short-term trend below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mondelez sells repeat-purchase chocolate, biscuits, baked snacks, gum, candy, cheese, grocery, and beverage products across more than 150 countries. | High |
| Moat | Brand equity, shelf access, route-to-market scale, local-market portfolios, marketing spend, and global procurement support a meaningful moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Dirk Van de Put has led the company since 2017 and is pushing emerging-market growth, brand investment, pricing, productivity, and portfolio shaping. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 5.8% to $38.537 billion, but net income to common fell to $2.451 billion and adjusted operating margin compressed under input-cost pressure. | High |
| Valuation | At $60.22, MDLZ trades near 30.0x TTM GAAP EPS, 18.8x forward earnings, 2.0x sales, 30.3x TTM free cash flow, and a 3.3% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is near its 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average, with RSI near neutral rather than deeply oversold. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by cocoa inflation, pricing elasticity, weak U.S. snacking demand, emerging-market volatility, currency, debt, and regulatory exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis has high data confidence, while forward-return confidence is lower because commodity and volume paths drive the outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MDLZ looks like a quality franchise under cost pressure, not a low-risk all-clear compounder at any price. | Medium-low |
MDLZ AI stock forecast
The MDLZ AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a precise prediction. Using a July 7, 2026 close of $60.22 and normalized forward EPS near $3.20, the three-year tested range spans a bearish area near $42.5, a base area near $64.5, and a bullish area near $83.8 before dividends. The wide spread reflects how much of the thesis depends on cocoa cost relief, volume recovery, and whether investors keep paying a premium multiple for snacking brands.
$80 to $84
More likely if organic revenue stays positive, emerging markets keep compounding, cocoa and other input costs ease, North America volume/mix improves, free cash flow moves back toward management goals, and the market values MDLZ near a premium staples multiple.
$62 to $66
More likely if 2026 organic net revenue grows in the flat to 2% guidance range, adjusted EPS recovers slowly, dividend growth stays modest, and the stock trades near a high-teens earnings multiple.
$40 to $45
More likely if cocoa inflation stays high, developed-market volume/mix remains negative, price increases hurt demand, debt limits capital returns, or staples multiples compress.
MDLZ AI technical analysis
MDLZ AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis and MarketWatch showed a July 7 close at $60.22. Investing.com reported a 50-day moving average near $59.90, a 200-day moving average near $61.32, and 14-day RSI near 53.7. That places MDLZ near short-term support but still below a longer-term trend reference.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $60.22 | StockAnalysis and MarketWatch reported the July 7, 2026 close at $60.22. |
| Near support | $59.90 to $60.06 | Investing.com reported the 50-day and 5-day moving-average references in this zone. Holding it keeps the short-term recovery setup alive. |
| Deeper support | $57.80 to $58.00 | TipRanks and other technical feeds placed some 200-day references below $58, so this is a secondary source-variance support area. |
| Near resistance | $61.32 | Investing.com reported the 200-day moving average near $61.32. A reclaim would improve the medium-term technical read. |
| Upper resistance | $71.15 | MarketWatch reported the 52-week high at $71.15, reached on July 23 of the prior year. |
| 50-day SMA | $59.90 | Investing.com reported the 50-day moving average as a buy signal because price was slightly above it. |
| 200-day SMA | $61.32 | Investing.com reported the 200-day moving average as a sell signal because price was below it. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.7 | Neutral momentum. RSI is neither overbought by the common 70 threshold nor oversold by the common 30 threshold. |
| Volume | 8.0M shares vs 8.8M 50-day average | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume below the 50-day average, so the bounce needs better confirmation. |
| Volatility | Staples stock with commodity-event risk | Earnings, cocoa cost commentary, currency, and guidance updates can matter more than normal consumer-staples daily ranges. |
| Invalidation | Close below $59.90 | A decisive close below the 50-day area would weaken the near-term mean-reversion setup and refocus attention on lower support. |
MDLZ AI trading strategy
The MDLZ AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal advice. It pairs a global snacking quality thesis with strict checks on input costs, volume/mix, and moving-average confirmation.
Watch for MDLZ to reclaim and hold the $61.32 200-day moving-average area while volume improves above the recent 50-day average. A stronger signal would pair the price reclaim with evidence that cocoa cost pressure is easing.
Define risk before entry. A close back below the 50-day area near $59.90 can be used as a rules-based invalidation point for the short-term trend setup.
If MDLZ holds the $59.90 to $60.06 zone without a guidance cut, compare the pullback against dividend yield, free cash flow, debt, and volume/mix before treating it as defensive value.
Do not rely on brand quality alone. A quality staples company can still underperform if margins reset lower or the valuation multiple compresses.
Track organic net revenue growth, volume/mix, gross margin, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, cocoa and sugar costs, currency translation, North America demand, and emerging-market growth.
Update scenario ranges after earnings. The base case requires margin repair and healthier volumes, not only pricing growth.
Investment research summary
Mondelez sells daily and occasional snacking habits. Customers pay for taste, convenience, brand memory, gifting, indulgence, small affordable treats, and broad retail availability.
The moat comes from global brands, local taste portfolios, shelf space, distributor relationships, manufacturing scale, marketing efficiency, and emerging-market reach. It is real, but cocoa inflation and weak developed-market volume show pricing power has limits.
The thesis fails if cocoa stays structurally expensive, price increases damage volume, consumers trade down to private label, currency hurts reported earnings, debt slows buybacks, or regulators and retailers pressure category economics.
Dirk Van de Put has emphasized snacking focus, emerging-market growth, brand reinvestment, acquisitions, divestitures, and productivity. The current test is whether management can restore margins without losing household penetration.
Global snacking benefits from convenience, portion control, premium chocolate, biscuits, local brands, and emerging-market consumption growth. The offset is that mature-market consumers are more price sensitive and health scrutiny remains a long-term constraint.
At roughly 30.0x TTM GAAP EPS and 18.8x forward earnings, MDLZ is priced for normalization rather than distress. Margin of safety improves if free cash flow returns toward $3 billion, volumes stabilize, and the stock clears the 200-day trend area.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ price | $60.22 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis MDLZ financials page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $77.3 billion, verified from $60.22 x 1.28365 billion shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.28365 billion Class A shares outstanding at April 24, 2026 | Mondelez Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net revenues | $38.537 billion, cross-validated with SEC Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | Mondelez 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | $2.451 billion, cross-validated with SEC Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | Mondelez 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.235 billion and $2.49 per share | StockAnalysis MDLZ cash flow statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $2.125 billion cash and equivalents, $21.804 billion total debt at FY2025 | StockAnalysis MDLZ balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $10.080 billion net revenue, 3.0% organic net revenue growth, $0.67 adjusted EPS | Mondelez Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Flat to 2% organic net revenue growth, flat to 5% adjusted EPS growth, about $3 billion free cash flow | Mondelez Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 29.8x trailing PE, 18.8x forward PE, 2.0x sales, 30.0x free cash flow | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $59.90, 200-day moving average $61.32, RSI 53.7 | Investing.com MDLZ technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.50 per share regular quarterly dividend | Mondelez dividend declaration | July 8, 2026 |
This MDLZ AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 8, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, commodity costs, currency rates, interest rates, consumer demand, or market multiples change.
