Mondelez International, Inc. research snapshot
MDLZ AI stock analysis currently reads Mondelez International as a high-quality global snacking business with improving momentum: the July 28, 2026 Q2 report beat revenue estimates, organic net revenue growth returned to 2.2 percent, North America volume and mix turned positive, and management raised full-year organic growth guidance to at least 2 percent. Cocoa markets have moved from crisis toward an expected surplus, which supports the margin repair story, but adjusted EPS still fell 2.7 percent on a constant currency basis in Q2 and the stock pulled back from its July 29 intraday high near $66.65. The analysis supports scenario-based monitoring rather than a single price prediction.
Current price
$62.31
Market cap
$79.53 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality snacking franchise, improving momentum
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after the Q2 earnings rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mondelez sells repeat-purchase chocolate, biscuits, baked snacks, gum, candy, cheese, grocery, and beverage products across more than 150 countries. | High |
| Moat | Brand equity, shelf access, route-to-market scale, local-market portfolios, marketing spend, and global procurement support a meaningful moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Dirk Van de Put has led the company since 2017, and Amit Banati joined as CFO in July 2026. The focus is emerging-market growth, North America recovery, innovation, and margin repair. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net revenue rose 4.1 percent to $9.355 billion with organic growth of 2.2 percent, but adjusted EPS fell 2.7 percent on a constant currency basis to $0.73. | High |
| Valuation | At $62.31, MDLZ trades near 19x to 20x forward adjusted EPS, 22.8x trailing GAAP EPS, 2.0x sales, 25.8x TTM free cash flow, and about a 3.2 percent dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the earnings rally, with RSI near 54.6, but it has given back part of the post-earnings gain. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk includes cocoa volatility despite the expected surplus, consumer price sensitivity, Middle East disruption, USMCA tariff uncertainty, currency, and roughly $22.1 billion of total debt. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis has high data confidence, while forward-return confidence is lower because commodity, volume, and multiple paths drive the outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MDLZ looks like a quality franchise with improving momentum, but it still trades at a premium multiple while adjusted EPS declines. | Medium |
MDLZ AI stock forecast
The MDLZ AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a precise prediction. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $62.31, FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $3.05 and FY2027 consensus near $3.36, the tested range spans a bearish area near $48 to $55, a base area near $63 to $69, and a bullish area near $73 to $79 before dividends. The analyst average price target is $69.13, with a low of $55 and a high of $77. The wide spread reflects how much of the thesis depends on margin recovery, volume durability, cocoa, and whether investors keep paying a premium multiple for snacking brands.
$73 to $79
More likely if volume and mix keep improving, emerging markets stay strong, cocoa stays in surplus, adjusted EPS moves toward the high end of the flat to 5 percent guidance or better, and the stock holds a premium staples multiple.
$63 to $69
More likely if 2026 organic net revenue stays at or above 2 percent, adjusted EPS recovers slowly, dividend growth stays modest, and the stock trades near its current 19x to 20x forward multiple, consistent with the analyst average target of $69.13.
$48 to $55
More likely if consumer trade-down hurts volume, cocoa volatility returns despite the surplus, Middle East or tariff costs rise, adjusted margins stall, or the valuation multiple compresses toward a low-teens forward earnings level.
MDLZ AI technical analysis
MDLZ AI technical analysis improved as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close at $62.31, a 50-day moving average near $61.04, a 200-day moving average near $58.64, and 14-day RSI near 54.6. After the July 28 Q2 earnings release, the stock rallied to an intraday 52-week high of $66.65 on July 29 before pulling back, which leaves MDLZ above both moving averages but below the recent high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.31 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $62.31, down 1.2 percent on the day. |
| Near support | $61.04 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average near $61.04. Holding this zone keeps the short-term recovery setup alive. |
| Deeper support | $58.64 | The 200-day moving average sits near $58.64, with June 30 and July 10 lows in the $57.78 to $57.82 area. This is the key medium-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $63.08 to $64.99 | July 29 and 30 closes printed in this zone after the earnings rally, so it is the first supply area to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $66.65 | StockAnalysis reported the 52-week high at $66.65, reached on July 29, 2026. |
| 50-day SMA | $61.04 | Price is above the 50-day moving average, a mild short-term positive signal. |
| 200-day SMA | $58.64 | Price is above the 200-day moving average, a positive medium-term signal that was not present in early July. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.6 | Neutral momentum. RSI is neither overbought by the common 70 threshold nor oversold by the common 30 threshold. |
| Volume | 20.2M on July 29 vs 8.5M 20-day average | Earnings-day volume spiked to 20.2 million shares, then faded to about 7.9 million on July 31, so the follow-through still needs confirmation. |
| Volatility | Low beta of 0.41 | Mondelez has lower price volatility than the market, but earnings, cocoa commentary, and currency can still drive outsized single-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $61.04 | A decisive close below the 50-day area would weaken the near-term setup; a close below the 200-day near $58.64 would negate the medium-term improvement. |
MDLZ AI trading strategy
The MDLZ AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal advice. It pairs the improved Q2 2026 fundamental picture with strict checks on volume and mix, margin recovery, and moving-average confirmation.
Watch for MDLZ to hold above the 50-day moving average near $61.04 and reclaim the $63.08 to $64.99 zone with improving volume. A stronger signal would pair the price move with evidence that adjusted EPS is inflecting higher on a constant currency basis.
Define risk before entry. A close back below the 50-day area near $61.04 can be used as a rules-based invalidation point; a close below the 200-day near $58.64 would argue against the trend setup.
If MDLZ pulls back toward the 50-day area near $61.04 without a guidance cut, compare the setup against free cash flow, debt, dividend yield, and volume and mix before treating it as defensive value.
Do not rely on brand quality alone. A quality staples company can still underperform if adjusted margins reset lower or the valuation multiple compresses.
Track organic net revenue growth, volume and mix, adjusted gross margin, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, cocoa prices, currency translation, North America demand, and emerging-market growth.
Update scenario ranges after Q3 2026 earnings. The bull case requires durable volume and margin repair, not only pricing growth.
Investment research summary
Mondelez sells daily and occasional snacking habits. Customers pay for taste, convenience, brand memory, gifting, indulgence, small affordable treats, and broad retail availability.
The moat comes from global brands, local taste portfolios, shelf space, distributor relationships, manufacturing scale, marketing efficiency, and emerging-market reach. Q2 2026 share gains in North America and strong emerging-market growth support it, but consumer price sensitivity shows pricing power has limits.
The thesis fails if volume and mix gains do not last, consumer trade-down accelerates, cocoa volatility returns despite the surplus, Middle East or tariff costs rise, currency hurts reported earnings, debt slows capital returns, or the premium multiple compresses.
Dirk Van de Put has emphasized emerging-market growth, North America recovery, innovation, and reinvestment. New CFO Amit Banati arrived in July 2026. The test is whether management can convert volume recovery into adjusted EPS growth after two quarters of constant-currency declines.
Global snacking benefits from convenience, portion control, premium chocolate, biscuits, local brands, and emerging-market consumption growth. Cocoa moved from a 2024 crisis to an expected surplus, which helps chocolate margins. The offset is that mature-market consumers remain price sensitive and health scrutiny is a long-term constraint.
At roughly 19x to 20x forward adjusted EPS and 22.8x trailing GAAP earnings, MDLZ is priced for normalization rather than distress. Margin of safety improves if volume and mix stay positive, adjusted EPS inflects higher, and the stock holds above the 200-day moving average near $58.64.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ price | $62.31 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis MDLZ overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $79.53 billion, verified from $62.31 x 1.2763 billion shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.28 billion Class A shares, down 2.35% year over year | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net revenue | $9.355 billion, up 4.1% reported; organic growth 2.2% with volume and mix of 0.7 percentage points | Mondelez Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.73, down 2.7% on a constant currency basis; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.20, flattered by mark-to-market and tax items | Mondelez Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin | 34.0%, up 20 basis points, with adjusted gross profit dollars up 3.0% at constant currency | Mondelez Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | At least 2% organic net revenue growth (raised), adjusted EPS growth flat to 5% on a constant currency basis, free cash flow near $3 billion | Mondelez Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.50 per share, with a 4% increase announced July 28, 2026 (about $0.52 per quarter going forward) | Mondelez Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $39.68 billion as of the June 2026 quarter | StockAnalysis MDLZ financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $3.52 billion, $2.73 per share (GAAP, includes one-time gains) | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $3.09 billion, $2.42 per share | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $1.72 billion cash, $22.06 billion total debt at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 22.83x trailing PE, 19.29x forward PE, 2.00x sales, 25.78x free cash flow | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $61.04, 200-day moving average $58.64, RSI 54.6, 52-week range $51.20 to $66.65 | StockAnalysis MDLZ statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 24 analysts, average price target $69.13, range $55 to $77 | StockAnalysis MDLZ forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $38.537 billion net revenue, $2.451 billion net income to common | Mondelez 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
This MDLZ AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, commodity costs, currency rates, interest rates, consumer demand, or market multiples change.
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