Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. research snapshot
SWK AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Stanley Black & Decker as a branded industrial turnaround that is gaining momentum after a solid Q2 2026 report. SWK closed at $94.58 on July 31, 2026, near the top of its 52-week range of $61.90 to $96.04, giving a market capitalization near $14.28 billion, verified as $94.58 times 151.02 million shares with a 0.02% deviation. The July 29, 2026 report delivered flat reported sales with 3% organic growth, an adjusted gross margin of 33.7% up 620 basis points that included about 250 basis points of net tariff refund benefit, adjusted EPS of $1.57 versus consensus near $1.21, $698 million of free cash flow, $1.7 billion of debt reduction, and a $250 million share buyback. Management raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.20 to $5.80 and free cash flow guidance to $600 million to $800 million. The central question is whether tariff refunds, productivity, and DEWALT, STANLEY, and CRAFTSMAN share gains can keep driving margin recovery while battery metal, tungsten, and oil inflation and a still low return on equity limit the upside. This SWK AI stock analysis is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$94.58
Market cap
$14.28 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Turnaround gaining momentum with tariff support, lower debt, and strong DEWALT share
Trend status
Bullish, above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Stanley Black & Decker sells tools, outdoor products, storage, digital jobsite solutions, and engineered fastening products under global brands led by DEWALT, STANLEY, CRAFTSMAN, and Cub Cadet, with TTM revenue near $15.25 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is mainly brand recognition, retail shelf space, contractor habits, channel relationships, product breadth, and manufacturing scale, but retailers and competing brands still provide alternatives. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Chris Nelson is executing a focused portfolio, margin recovery, and capital allocation agenda. Q2 2026 delivered $1.7 billion of debt reduction, a $250 million buyback, and raised guidance, which supports a credible scorecard. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $15.13 billion, down 1.53%, with EPS of $2.65 and free cash flow of $688 million. Q2 2026 delivered 3% organic growth, adjusted EPS of $1.57 up from $0.95 a year earlier, and $698 million of free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $94.58, financial_rigor.py calculated 23.12x TTM EPS, 16.31x forward earnings, 1.59x book value, 11.07x free cash flow per share, 0.94x sales, and a 3.55% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SWK closed at $94.58 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 60.96 and a weak 14-day ADX near 11.91 that signals a grind higher rather than a strong trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because raw material inflation, a likely price increase by 2027, outdoor weather softness, retail and DIY demand, low current ROE near 6.9%, and the temporary nature of tariff refunds can offset the brand portfolio gains. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported revenue, EPS, margins, cash flow, debt, shares, guidance, and market-cap math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, the earnings release, the transcript, and financial_rigor.py. Lower for forward returns because tariff policy, inflation, retail orders, and execution are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. SWK has real brands, rising margins, and falling debt, but the equity case still requires proof that the recovery is durable beyond the Q2 tariff refund timing and that ROE can move meaningfully above its current level. | Medium |
SWK AI stock forecast
The SWK AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $94.58 July 31, 2026 cutoff close. The bullish case requires adjusted EPS to hold near the high end of the $5.20 to $5.80 guidance, free cash flow to land in the $600 million to $800 million range, debt to keep falling, and the stock to clear the $96 to $100 resistance zone. The base case assumes modest growth near the $5.37 consensus with a mature industrial multiple. The bearish case assumes inflation outpaces tariff relief, retail or outdoor demand softens, or leverage concerns return.
$125 to $140
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near a high single-digit to low double-digit rate, tariff relief continues or inflation stays offset by productivity, free cash flow exceeds the raised guidance, and the stock holds above the 200-day moving average near $78. financial_rigor.py produced a three-year bull value near $135.80 using 12% EPS growth and an 18x terminal P/E.
$88 to $104
More likely if SWK grows organic revenue at a low single-digit pace, expands margins through productivity, reduces debt toward the 2.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA target, and trades near the consensus price target of $96.91. The financial_rigor.py base case using 8% EPS growth and a 14x terminal P/E produced about $94.70 after three years.
$55 to $70
More likely if battery metal, tungsten, and oil inflation forces a price increase that hurts volume, tariff refunds stop, outdoor and retail demand stays weak, Q3 guidance near $1.50 to $1.60 adjusted EPS disappoints, free cash flow misses, or the stock breaks below the 200-day moving average near $78.
SWK AI technical analysis
SWK AI technical analysis starts from the $94.58 July 31, 2026 close used for the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported a 20-day moving average near $90.08, a 50-day near $85.92, a 100-day near $79.71, and a 200-day near $78.04, with 14-day RSI near 60.96 and 14-day ADX near 11.91. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, all levels should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.58 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, down 1.02% on the day, near the 52-week high of $96.04. |
| Near support | $90 to $91 | The 20-day moving average near $90.08 on July 31, 2026 is the first pullback zone. A hold here keeps the short-term structure constructive. |
| Next support | $85 to $86 | The 50-day moving average near $85.92 forms the next support level. A close below this area would point to a deeper retracement. |
| Deeper support | $78 to $80 | The 100-day moving average near $79.71 and the 200-day moving average near $78.04 form a long-term support cluster below price. |
| Near resistance | $96 to $100 | The 52-week high of $96.04 is the immediate resistance, followed by the round $100 level and the $107 Citi target. |
| 50-day moving average | $85.92 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $85.92 on July 31, 2026, below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $78.04 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $78.04, well below price and confirming the longer uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61, ADX near 12 | 14-day RSI was near 60.96, neutral to slightly positive, while 14-day ADX near 11.91 on Barchart suggested a range-bound grind rather than a strong trending move. |
| Volume | About 1.78 million 20-day average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.78 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.72 million on July 31, 2026. Breakouts need volume above those levels to carry more weight. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 33.9% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 33.88%, so position sizing should account for wider swings around earnings and tariff policy headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $90, then below $85.92 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $90 would weaken the short-term uptrend; a close below the 50-day near $85.92 would point to a failed breakout toward the $96 high. |
SWK AI trading strategy
The SWK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart checks, position sizing, updated filings, tariff and raw material news, retail demand data, and housing and repair cycle indicators.
Watch for SWK to hold above the 20-day moving average near $90 and to clear the $96.04 52-week high with improving volume, with the 200-day trend line near $78 still rising.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $90 or a failed attempt at the $96 high should trigger a stop and review.
If SWK pulls back toward the $85 to $90 support zone without a new thesis break, compare the price move with adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, tariff refunds, inflation, gross margin, debt reduction, and retail softness before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss level and a fresh review of debt, dividend coverage, inventory, and outdoor demand trends.
Track Tools & Outdoor organic growth, DEWALT share in the commercial and industrial channel, adjusted gross margin, free cash flow, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, tariff refunds, raw material inflation, the timing of any 2027 price increase, and Engineered Fastening growth.
Reduce confidence when margin and EPS strength depends mainly on one-time tariff refunds rather than productivity, mix, and organic volume.
Investment research summary
Stanley Black & Decker sells trusted tools, outdoor equipment, storage, and fastening products that professionals, tradespeople, DIY consumers, retailers, automakers, and industrial customers use for work, repair, production, and maintenance, led by the DEWALT, STANLEY, CRAFTSMAN, and Cub Cadet brands.
The moat is strongest in brand recognition, retail shelf space, contractor habits, product breadth, channel service, and manufacturing scale, and weakest where retailers can pressure pricing or private-label and competing brands can substitute.
The thesis can fail if tariff refunds fade, battery metal, tungsten, and oil inflation forces price increases that hurt volume, retail and outdoor demand stays weak, or leverage and low ROE keep absorbing cash faster than brands and productivity can rebuild economics.
Chris Nelson has a clear scorecard: keep the raised 2026 adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance, reduce net debt toward 2.5x adjusted EBITDA, protect the dividend, buy back shares opportunistically, and reinvest tariff refund dollars in growth without giving back margin.
SWK benefits from long-run repair, remodeling, professional trade, infrastructure, data center, power generation, outdoor, automotive, and aerospace demand, but it is also exposed to housing cycles, big-box retail ordering, consumer confidence, weather, and input-cost swings.
The stock is no longer priced like a distress case. At about 16.3x forward earnings and 23.1x trailing GAAP EPS, margin of safety improves if the raised guidance is met and debt keeps falling, and it weakens if the margin recovery turns out to be tariff timing rather than structural.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SWK price | $94.58 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $14.28 billion, verified as $94.58 x 151.02 million shares with 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 151.02 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and margins | Net sales about $4.0 billion, flat year over year with 3% organic growth; gross margin 33.0% up 600 bps; adjusted gross margin 33.7% up 620 bps, both including about 250 bps of net tariff refund benefit | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP EPS $2.33 and adjusted EPS $1.57 versus consensus near $1.21, both including about $0.17 of net tariff refund benefit | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Tools & Outdoor sales $3,564M with adjusted segment margin 11.8% up 380 bps; Engineered Fastening sales $396M with adjusted segment margin 13.0% up 220 bps and 3% organic growth | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Cash from operating activities $763 million and free cash flow $698 million | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Debt reduction and buyback | Reduced debt by $1.7 billion and repurchased about 3.2 million shares for $250 million during Q2 2026 | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | GAAP EPS $4.60 to $5.45 raised from $4.15 to $5.35; adjusted EPS $5.20 to $5.80 raised from $4.90 to $5.70; free cash flow $600 to $800 million raised from $500 to $700 million | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Net sales about $3.7 billion, organic growth 3% to 4%, and adjusted EPS about $1.50 to $1.60 with a planned tax rate near 22% | Stanley Black & Decker Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $592.4 million and total debt $4.758 billion as of July 4, 2026, giving net debt near $4.166 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet via Fiscal.ai | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Net sales $15.13 billion, down 1.53%; net income $401.9 million; EPS $2.65; free cash flow $687.9 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $15.25 billion, gross profit $4.91 billion, operating income $1.29 billion, net income $620.5 million, EPS $4.09, operating cash flow $1.55 billion, free cash flow $1.29 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | financial_rigor.py calculated 23.12x TTM EPS, 1.59x book value, 11.07x free cash flow per share, 0.94x sales, and 3.55% dividend yield; StockAnalysis.com lists 23.14x TTM PE, 16.31x forward PE, and 11.53x EV/EBITDA | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis.com EPS, book value, FCF, revenue, and dividend inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average 12-month target of $96.91 across 15 analysts, low $84 and high $110, median $95 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Citi $100 to $107 Buy, Goldman Sachs $82 to $93 Hold, Morgan Stanley $84 Hold, Wells Fargo $90 Hold, and J.P. Morgan $65 to $75 Sell | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks via TheFly | July 31, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $15.12 billion with adjusted EPS $5.37, FY2027 revenue $15.40 billion with adjusted EPS $6.24 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $3.36 per share with a 3.55% yield; quarterly dividend raised to $0.84 from $0.83, 59 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com and Stanley Black & Decker dividend announcement | July 23, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.29 million shares short, 4.16% of shares outstanding, 3.76 days to cover, down from 7.87 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Ownership context | Insiders owned about 0.23% and institutions owned about 97.72% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average near $90.08, 50-day near $85.92, 100-day near $79.71, 200-day near $78.04, 14-day RSI near 60.96, 14-day ADX near 11.91 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This SWK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, guidance, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, tariff policy changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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